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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The rain from earlier this week will become a fast, fading memory over the next few days. This process has already began as Thursday was an absolutely beautiful fall day. The forecast area experienced its first sunny day for the month of November. Clouds quickly cleared out in the pre-dawn hours as high pressure began to build in behind the departing storm system. There was a very tight pressure gradient across the forecast area, and as a result very gusty winds occurred. Gusts well over 30 mph at times were commonplace across the area. The CAA pattern resulted in an offshore flow with low humidity and the crystal clear blue skies. Daytime heating tried to offset the CAA, and temperatures reached the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. This was a few degrees short of the normal for early November. Winds began to subside a bit this evening as the rate of atmospheric mixing decreased with the loss of daytime heating, and as high pressure builds in on the East side of the Rockies. Clear skies and the current CAA pattern will continue overnight, and the stage will be set for the coolest night of the season thus far. Lows will range from the mid 30s in the coldest locations to the mid 40s at the coast. Lower 40s seem like a good call here along I-10. The winds will remain up just a bit to keep temperatures from completely plummeting, but with the winds we'll be talking about a wind chill. These readings will be in the 30s, so you will definitely want a jacket or coat as you start your Friday.
High pressure will be the dominate weather feature through Monday. Beautiful weather is on tap for the next 4 days with low humidity and a moderating temperature trend by the second half of the weekend as high pressure, which is currently located to our NW, will be located to our East. Friday will continue the trend of below normal temperatures as highs reach the low to mid 60s across the area with CAA. The offshore flow will continue, but as the high moves closer winds will be much lighter on the order of 10-15 mph. They will remain a bit stronger over the coastal waters where rough surf conditions will continue. Humidity values will be super low once again. There will ultimately be an issue with static electricity once again. Also, people proned to allergy/sinus issues may have to deal with them in this situation since the air will be so dry, and in this climate we are not that accustomed to it. The beautiful and comfortable conditions of Friday afternoon will give way to the coldest night of the season Friday Night into Saturday Morning. First, let's talk football! There is no doubt it will be a beautiful evening for football, and that's great news as there are some big games here in the 10th and final week of the regular season. There might not be a bigger game than the one here in Lake Charles between Barbe and Sulphur. This game is for the district 2-5A title. Temperatures will certainly be on the chilly side. A jacket or coat will more than likely be required for any game, or whatever else you may have planned. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s at kickoff, and in the lower 50s at kickoff, and mid to upper 40s by game's end. Winds will be light as the high pressure slides right into the region, and anchors itself over the NW Gulf Coast. The cool game time temperatures will translate into the 30s nearly areawide by sunrise Saturday. The coldest locations in the forecast area will likely flirt with a freeze for the first time this season. Many of the rest of us will have a chance of experiencing the first frost of the season. Patchy frost will certainly be possible all the way to the I-10 corridor.
The cold start to the weekend will translate into a clear, beautiful, low humidity, pleasantly cool afternoon on Saturday. Highs will reach the mid 60s on average. The strong Canadian high pressure will be centered right over Louisiana, and the CAA will cease after Saturday morning. It will be a fantastic November weekend weatherwise for whatever plans you may have. Just expect it to be on the chilly side in the morning. It won't chilly during the big football games of local interest on Saturday. McNeese plays on the road in Huntsville, Texas against Sam Houston State as they continue to fight for another Southland Conference title. Kickoff is slated for 2p.m., and skies will be sunny with low humidity. Temperatures will range from around 60 to 65 during the game. Down the road in our state's capitol, LSU plays hosts to the Alabama Crimson Tide, the defending national champions. This nationally televised game slated for a 2:30p.m. at Tiger Stadium will offer a picturesque backdrop with clear skies and a packed stadium. Temperatures will be similar with readings between 60 and 65 during the game. Saturday Night won't be quite as cold, but another very chilly night is expected. Winds will generally be calm or very light as the controlling high remains in place. The air mass will just begin to naturally modify. Expect lows to range from the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. Don't forget to set your clocks back an hour as well, as daylight savings time comes to an end. You wouldn't want to be late for church Sunday, right? The greatness continues for Sunday. The big high pressure will only slowly loosen its stronghold over the area. Air mass modification continues, and after the chilly beginning to Sunday, highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. It promises to be a fantastic day for any outdoor activities after church. The Saints play on the road against NFC South opponent, the Carolina Panthers. The noon local time contest will be played under great weather in Charlotte, NC with clear and cool conditions. Highs will be in the upper 50s to around 60. Air mass modification increases for the Sunday Night-Monday period as the high pushes Eastward, and orients itself over the SE U.S. Skies will remain clear Sunday Night, and low temperatures should range from near 40 north to near 50 at the coast.
Beautiful weather carries over into next week as it will take the deep low-level moisture a while to return since the latest front has pushed everything very far to the South. A subtle return flow on Monday Morning, will increase a bit as we go through the day with a gradually tightening pressure gradient expected. Humidity values will still be rather pleasant, and temperatures will be more seasonable as we start the second calendar week of November. Expect afternoon highs to reach back into the low to mid 70s across the area. A more significant influx of low-level moisture is expected as we head into Tuesday as another storm system slowly evolves downstream. The deeper moisture will translate into a warmer temperature regime as a WAA pattern ensues over the forecast area. Partly Cloudy skies are expected to develop during the afternoon. Some patchy late night/early morning fog can't be ruled by this time especially with a persistent onshore flow becoming re-established, and with longer nights than days now. Fog is fairly common entity around these parts from October-May, and even more so in the latter half of the fall and winter. It will take awhile for the best weather system to evolve and move into this part of the world. Models are still diverging on this occurrence, but as it stands right now it looks to be in the middle to latter part of next week. A slight chance of showers is introduced for Wednesday, but it should be dry for the most part with just the continuance of the onshore flow, and increasing temperatures and low-level moisture. Winds will also increase as the pressure gradient tightens. Morning lows will be closer to 60 by this time, and afternoon highs will rise above 75 again. The slight chance of showers will basically be for streamer or air mas showers that develop out ahead of the next weather maker. Models flip flop on whether or not the highest rain chances next week will come on Thursday or Friday. An energized Pacific system with Canadian teleconnections appears to be hanging in the balance, but it all depends on how fast this system moves as to when the brunt of it will affect our area. For now, I will side with a slower evolution and keep the highest chances just beyond the forecast period next Friday. That being said, rain chances will increase a bit for Thursday with the approaching system hanging in the balance. There will be more than sufficient low level moisture in place. It is too early in the game to tell how active this system will be across our area, but there is the idea of a severe weather threat at the end of the week. It is also possible that the greatest dynamics will bypass our region. It should be more cut and dry by Monday. It appears as though an active pattern will be expected through the middle part of November, and this should offer more chances for much needed rainfall, and of course, shots of cool to cold air will follow each system into the region. Just a little fyi in closing....the average first freeze of the season around these parts generally across between November 10 and November 25 depending upon your proximity to the coast.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 41/64 36/65 38/69 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 41/63 36/64 38/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 42/65 37/65 40/70 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 37/61 33/64 36/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 37/61 33/64 36/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 43/66 38/65 38/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 41. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 64. North wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Clear and Cold w/ Patchy Frost. Low 36. Light North wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 65. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear and Cold. Low 38. Light NE wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 68. East wind 5-10 mph.
Friday 11/5/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 41
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 12
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 13
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: North 15
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: North 11
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: North 8
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
11-5-10
Low: 41
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
11-6-10
Low: 36
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Sunday
11-7-10
Daylight Savings Time Ends...Fall Back
Low: 38
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Monday
11-8-10
Low: 43
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Tuesday
11-9-10
Low: 51
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
11-10-10
Low: 56
High: 78
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-20
Thursday
11-11-10
Veteran's Day
Low: 60
High: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Tropical Update...
Tomas continues to be the story in the world of weather early on this Friday morning. Tomas is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane once again after being a weaker storm for a few days. This period of re-organization and re-strengthening began on Thursday as an environment more conducive for development existed over the Caribbean Sea. Tomas has made the much anticipated Northward turn, and will begin to impact much of the island nations in the Caribbean later today. Tomas could very well be a hurricane as it impacts the nations of the Caribbean later today, before weakening begins over the weekend as Tomas turns out to sea and merges with a frontal boundary next week. Tomas is being influenced by a mid-latitude ridge now to its East, as well as an accelerating mid-latitude trough and attendant low pressure to its West over the Gulf of Mexico. The approaching trough will result in acceleration in forward speed as well as a change of direction from Northerly to NE as the advancement of the trough creates some moderate wind shear from the SW. Model guidance is in good agreement at least through the next 48 hours about the future track of Tomas. Models diverge after this point, and are trending further to the right (East) with more of a noticeable nudge from the strong trough. Tomas will be greatly influenced by this trough, as it should literally tear the storm apart early next week. Tomas will become a post-tropical entity by Tuesday. There is the possibility that as the wind shear increases from the West, the main circulation of Tomas will be destroyed, but some hint of low-level circulation will remain in place. Either way, the trough should bring about the demise of Tomas. Tomas may go right through the chute between Eastern Cuba and Western Haiti this afternoon, before brushing by the SE Bahamas Saturday possibly still as a hurricane. Tomas will continue to gain latitude, and move further away from the United States. It will turn more Eastward Sunday night into Monday, and make the transition to extratropical at that time. The circulation should remain well South of Bermuda. It seems likely that Haiti will face significant devastation from Tomas, regardless of whether or not a direct hit is sustained. The current official track is one that would place Haiti predominantly on the right-hand side of the circulation meaning they would be right in the axis of deeper moisture to the right of the low. Along with gusty winds, torrential rains and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are expected. The earthquake in January destroyed nearly all the vegetation, and that would only exacerbate the catastrophic flooding potential through the weekend.Tomas will certainly cause problems for many other areas of the Caribbean as well.
Tropical Storm Tomas Advisory
10p.m. CDT Thursday, November 4, 2010
...Tomas Nears Hurricane Strength...Will Impact Eastern Jamaica and Western Haiti Friday...
Latitude: 17.9 N
Longitude: 75.3 W
This is about 100 miles E of Kingston, Jamaica and 205 miles WSW of Port au Prince, Haiti.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 65 mph w/ higher gusts. Based on satellite representation and computer data it appears as though Tomas is strengthening at this time. Strengthening is forecast to continue Friday, and Tomas will likely reach hurricane status Friday morning before affecting Eastern Cuba and Western Haiti. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 140 miles from the center.
Movement: NNE or 30 degrees @ 9 mph. A turn to the NE and an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On this forecast track, Tomas will pass near or over the Western tip of Haiti and extreme Eastern Cuba later today, and into the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.21" or 989 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Cuban Province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica, and the Cuban Provinces of Santiago de Cuba, and Holgiun. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Southern Coast of the Dominican Republic from the border of Haiti to Barahona.
High: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Tropical Update...
Tomas continues to be the story in the world of weather early on this Friday morning. Tomas is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane once again after being a weaker storm for a few days. This period of re-organization and re-strengthening began on Thursday as an environment more conducive for development existed over the Caribbean Sea. Tomas has made the much anticipated Northward turn, and will begin to impact much of the island nations in the Caribbean later today. Tomas could very well be a hurricane as it impacts the nations of the Caribbean later today, before weakening begins over the weekend as Tomas turns out to sea and merges with a frontal boundary next week. Tomas is being influenced by a mid-latitude ridge now to its East, as well as an accelerating mid-latitude trough and attendant low pressure to its West over the Gulf of Mexico. The approaching trough will result in acceleration in forward speed as well as a change of direction from Northerly to NE as the advancement of the trough creates some moderate wind shear from the SW. Model guidance is in good agreement at least through the next 48 hours about the future track of Tomas. Models diverge after this point, and are trending further to the right (East) with more of a noticeable nudge from the strong trough. Tomas will be greatly influenced by this trough, as it should literally tear the storm apart early next week. Tomas will become a post-tropical entity by Tuesday. There is the possibility that as the wind shear increases from the West, the main circulation of Tomas will be destroyed, but some hint of low-level circulation will remain in place. Either way, the trough should bring about the demise of Tomas. Tomas may go right through the chute between Eastern Cuba and Western Haiti this afternoon, before brushing by the SE Bahamas Saturday possibly still as a hurricane. Tomas will continue to gain latitude, and move further away from the United States. It will turn more Eastward Sunday night into Monday, and make the transition to extratropical at that time. The circulation should remain well South of Bermuda. It seems likely that Haiti will face significant devastation from Tomas, regardless of whether or not a direct hit is sustained. The current official track is one that would place Haiti predominantly on the right-hand side of the circulation meaning they would be right in the axis of deeper moisture to the right of the low. Along with gusty winds, torrential rains and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are expected. The earthquake in January destroyed nearly all the vegetation, and that would only exacerbate the catastrophic flooding potential through the weekend.Tomas will certainly cause problems for many other areas of the Caribbean as well.
Tropical Storm Tomas Advisory
10p.m. CDT Thursday, November 4, 2010
...Tomas Nears Hurricane Strength...Will Impact Eastern Jamaica and Western Haiti Friday...
Latitude: 17.9 N
Longitude: 75.3 W
This is about 100 miles E of Kingston, Jamaica and 205 miles WSW of Port au Prince, Haiti.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 65 mph w/ higher gusts. Based on satellite representation and computer data it appears as though Tomas is strengthening at this time. Strengthening is forecast to continue Friday, and Tomas will likely reach hurricane status Friday morning before affecting Eastern Cuba and Western Haiti. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 140 miles from the center.
Movement: NNE or 30 degrees @ 9 mph. A turn to the NE and an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On this forecast track, Tomas will pass near or over the Western tip of Haiti and extreme Eastern Cuba later today, and into the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.21" or 989 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Cuban Province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica, and the Cuban Provinces of Santiago de Cuba, and Holgiun. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Southern Coast of the Dominican Republic from the border of Haiti to Barahona.
The next advisory on Tomas will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4p.m. CDT.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 4 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Friday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet.
Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Sunday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:29a.m. 9:29p.m.
High: 1:14a.m. 4:04p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.39'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Low: 53
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 27-1912
High: 71
Normal High: 74
Record High: 88-1919
Rainfall
Today: 0.05"
Month to Date: 2.35"
Normal Month to Date: 0.55"
Year to Date: 30.60"
Normal Year to Date: 48.53"
Record: 2.38"- 1954
Sensible Weather Observed:
Rain
Light Rain
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 50
High: 80
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 59
High: 82
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 67
High: 82
Rain: 0.34"
Sunrise Friday: 7:30a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:23p.m.
Hunting Times:
7:00a.m.-6:53p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Saturday November 6
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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