***Severe Weather Mode.*** There is no video today, and the blog is in short form until later notice.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The most widespread and significant rain event in weeks is unfolding before our eyes early this morning. The players necessary to produce this much needed rainfall are on the field. A strong cold front stemming from a sharpening trough across the nation's mid section, and additional energy in the form of an upper level low that is cut off from the Jet Stream that has dropped into East Texas and eventually into the Western Gulf will work in tandem to produce said rainfall event. This event has already began as a short wave evacuated over the area on Monday in advance of the main kicker. The deep low-level moisture in place, and the instability created by the active Jet Stream created good rainfall amounts across much of the area. Rain was heavy at times, and the lightning and thunder was certainly a little rambunctious at times. The widespread rain and storms held temperatures in check, but here in the warm sector temperatures were in the mid 60s this morning in the mid 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Rainfall totals have been over 1" so far at Lake Charles, with some locations receiving in excess of 3". It has been quiet for most of the evening, but showers and storms have re-developed downstream in SE Texas as the forcing increases ahead of the cold front and upper level low. This will all translate Eastward through the early morning hours, and into the forecast area. The added instability and increased forcing will produce dynamics to support a severe weather threat. The main threats will be damaging wind and large hail. A very minimal tornado threat exists. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued earlier Monday evening for much of SE and East Texas as well as for Western Louisiana to the North of I-10, and I expect the same fate for SW Louisiana. The strongest storms will occur along and ahead of the front early this morning, but the threat for rain will continue through the day in response to the ULL moving into the Gulf of Mexico by this afternoon. The cold front will push through the forecast area this morning, and the severe threat should come to an end as it does so. A CAA pattern will be induced behind the front. Until then, we will remain unseasonably warm and muggy with temperatures only dropping into the mid 60s at best overnight. Rain chances will nearly max out on Tuesday, and the potential for an additional 2-4" of rain is expected. The cold air aloft generated by the ULL will keep some instability present in the wake of the front, and some thunder is possible through the evening. Afternoon highs will be several degrees cooler than that of Monday as CAA takes over and intensifies behind the strong early November front. Expect maxes to reach the low to mid 70s across the area. The cold front should clear the entire forecast area, and push into the coastal waters by noon.
The thunderstorm and convection rains transition into a stratiform rain event by Tuesday night into Wednesday as the ULL remains the key factor in our weather. The low will slowly be shunted Eastward through the Northern Gulf waters as the day progresses Wednesday. Until that time, periodic rain mainly showers will be expected, and CAA will continue. Overnight lows on Tuesday night will be closer to normal down into the lower 50s across the area. Wednesday highs will stop short of normal, with readings in the mid 60s at best. Rain chances will remain in the likely category through Wednesday with only a slow improvement noted through the day as a slug of moisture continues to stream over the area with the ULL in place. This will essentially be an overrunning situation. Cool, stable air in place at the surface will be overrun by warm, moist air above the surface. The stable air mass in place at the surface will more than likely preclude any thunderstorm activity during this time frame. Rain will be on and off and on basis through the day on Wednesday, with rain gradually tapering off through the day as the ULL pushes away from the forecast area. The overrunning will linger with a low-level stratus deck and intermittent light rain and/or drizzle into the overnight hours of Wednesday. A secondary cold front will also be in transit during this period as a very active pattern remains in place across the country. This cold front will push into and through the area in the overnight hours of Wednesday into Thursday morning. Much cooler weather will filter into the region behind this front. This will be the coolest air of the season so far, and temperatures by sunrise Thursday will be well down into the 40s across the area.
High pressure will become the dominant weather feature during the latter half of the week. Clouds may linger into the morning hours on Thursday in the wake of the cold front, but as drier air continues to work into all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will transition from Mostly Cloudy to Sunny during the day Thursday with high pressure over the Rockies ridging down into the Red River Valley. The coolest air mass of the season will result in cooler than normal maximum temperatures. Expect afternoon highs to reach the mid 60s at best. It will be on the windy side as well as the usual pressure differentials between highs and lows will be present, and CAA will continue. Clear skies and CAA will continue the cooling trend across the area as we head into Friday. 40s are expected area wide by Friday morning. Temperatures will range from the lower end of the 40s across the coldest locations of the forecast area North of Hwy. 190, and closer to 50 along the coast. Winds will keep the atmosphere mixed up just enough to preclude the maximum potential for radiational cooling, but certainly with the high pressure still to our NW, CAA will continue. The end of the week is setting up perfectly once again. Friday should be a spectacular day with highs reaching the mid 60s. High pressure will slide into Texas, and winds will subside through the day. The stage will be set for another fantastic Friday night. Week 10 of High School Football promises to be clear, and will feature the coolest weather we've seen so far this season. Week 10 also features some huge key match ups with Barbe and Sulphur battling for the District 2-5A crown in Lake Charles. Temperatures during the games will quickly drop from the upper 50s at kickoff to the upper 40s by the end of the game. Winds will continue to be Northerly, but with the high essentially moving right over the forecast area, a night of prime radiational cooling is anticipated. The coldest night of the season is in store as we head into Saturday morning. 30s are expected over a good chunk of the forecast area. The exception will be coastal parishes. Temperatures could be very close to freezing in the coldest locales across the forecast area, with readings between 36 and 39 expected along the I-10 corridor. The first frost of the season is possible North of I-10 by sunrise Saturday.
The first full of weekend of November 2010 will be quite a nice one. High pressure will be working full throttle to supply an awesome stretch of fine fall weather across the Gulf South. Crystal clear cobalt blue skies are expected both Saturday and Sunday with low humidity and light winds both days. High pressure will essentially be right over the state Saturday, and only slowly push Eastward into Sunday. Air mass modification will begin by Saturday afternoon after such a chilly start to the day. The 30s will give way to the mid 60s for maximums on Saturday. Briefly, the football forecast is a good one with temperatures in the low to mid 60s for both the McNeese and LSU game Saturday afternoon. LSU plays hosts to Alabama with a 2:30 kickoff in Tiger Stadium. McNeese plays on the road up in Huntsville, Texas against Sam Houston State That game kicks off at 2p.m. Skies will be sunny for both games. Saturday night will be another chilly one, but maybe not quite as cold as air mass modification begins. Minimums should be in the upper 30s to lower 40s on average with clear skies and light winds. Air mass modification will continue for Sunday as the controlling high pressure slides far enough to the East to allow a subtle return flow to ensue. It will remain sunny with humidity values remaining low since the deep moisture will have been shunted way out into the Gulf. Highs will be very comfortable in the lower 70s for most. At this time, it seems reasonable to believe that we will make it through the entire weekend without seeing a cloud. The air mass will only slowly modify as we get into next week at the end of the forecast period. Humidity values will remain comfortably low, and temperatures will be pleasant for November standards. Expect plenty of sunshine on Monday with lows back into the mid to upper 40s while afternoon highs reach the low to mid 70s, basically normal for early November. Models depict a progressive pattern for much of the first half of the month, and another chance of rain and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will likely be lurking just beyond the scope of this forecast period. More in the coming day!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 73 54/65 47/68 90 70 60 40 10
LFT 73 55/66 47/67 90 80 60 40 10
BPT 74 53/65 48/68 90 70 60 40 10
AEX 71 48/61 44/65 90 70 60 40 10
POE 71 48/61 44/65 90 70 60 40 10
ARA 75 56/67 50/70 90 70 60 40 10
Today...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely in the morning. Rainfall heavy at times. Rainfall totals in excess of 2" possible. High 73. Turning cooler this afternoon. Windy. SSE wind 10-15 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty this afternoon. Chance of rain 90%.
Tonight...Cloudy & Cooler with rain likely embedded with a thunderstorm or two. Low 54. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday...Cloudy & Cool with off and on rain likely. Tapering off through the day. High 65. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain mainly before midnight. Cooler. Low 47. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Becoming Sunny. High 68. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
11-2-10
Election Day
Low: 67
High: 73
Rain: 90%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-20
Wednesday
11-3-10
Low: 54
High: 65
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Thursday
11-4-10
Low: 47
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Friday
11-5-10
Low: 42
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Saturday
11-6-10
Low: 37
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
11-7-10
Low: 40
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
11-8-10
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10
...Tropical Update...
The tropical discussion will be brief today due to time constraints from being in severe weather mode. Tropical Storm Tomas has weakened considerably since Sunday morning when he was a category 2 storm, and was showing signs of further strengthening. Tomas is temporarily being sheared as it treks through the Caribbean Sea. This shear and the friction from its close proximity to South America have resulted in the weakening trend. Tomas's structure changed very little Monday, and it should generally remain in the same state through today as the shear continues. However, Tomas will have the potential to re-strengthen in the coming days as the shear decreases, and high pressure builds back in over the top of the storm. This will induce a favorable environment. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The official forecast shows Tomas becoming a hurricane in the latter half of the week. Tomas is currently moving West, but a turn to the North is anticipated in a couple of days as a subtropical ridge steering the storm begins to weaken. This weakness will pull Tomas Northward, and Tomas poses a serious threat to Haiti. There is still some question as to how soon Tomas makes the turn, and models divulge different solutions. Either way, it seems as though at least a flooding threat will be realized in the country of Haiti. Tomas should gain latitude over the weekend, and possibly sideswipe the Bahamas on his way out to sea.Tomas is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico, and any impacts to Hispaniola will occur Friday into the weekend.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is anticipated through Wednesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Tonight...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Wednesday Night...North winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. A chance of showers.
Thursday...North winds 20 to 30 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Have a great Tuesday & God bless! Be sure to stay in touch throughout the day for any updates on severe weather.
-DM-
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