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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We must be living right! It was a great weekend weatherwise, with some of the nicest weather of the fall, it was a great football weekend for the state of Louisiana as McNeese, LSU, and the Saints all scored victories...none bigger than LSU's nice victory over Alabama! We also gained an hour. High pressure was in complete control this weekend just as the Saints were against the Panthers Sunday afternoon. Mornings were cold, but it warmed up nicely and afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to around 70. Morning lows were cold enough to support the season's first frost all the way down to the I-10 corridor, and the coldest locations experienced a brief light freeze around sunrise. High pressure remains the dominant weather feature as we start the new work week, and it will be a clear and chilly start to our Monday. Low temperatures this morning will range from the mid 30s in the coldest locations to mid 40s along the coast. Lows near 40 seem like a good call here along I-10. I suppose you will want a jacket or sweater first thing this morning with the chilly start, but it will warm up quickly yet again today. The surface high will shift Eastward allowing for a return flow to ensue over the forecast area as the day progresses. This will slowly bring back low-level moisture, and increase humidity values across the area. It will be another beautiful day with Sunny skies in place, and highs reaching into the lower 70s for most. This will be closer to the seasonal norm for the second week of November.
The quiet weather regime maintains itself tonight, but the return flow will strengthen as the high moves further and further East. Skies will remain clear, but a WAA pattern will be in place with much warmer low temperatures expected. Minimums will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s across the area, and the possibility of some late night/early morning patchy fog could be realized as we head into Tuesday morning, but it will not be a major issue. Our next storm system will be slow to evolve, and we will spread several days in a holding pattern so to speak. The return flow will continue to pump in Gulf moisture across the region, and the humidity will be back in earnest. Skies will be Partly Cloudy, but it will remain dry with no mention of precipitation just yet. The presence of a trigger mechanism or forcing will be lacking. The mid and upper levels will remain largely capped, therefore no rain chances shall be mentioned for Tuesday at this time. Temperatures will trend above normal once again with maximums reaching the mid to upper 70s. This November warming trend will be the story for much of the week after today as the next storm system generates downstream, and only slowly traverses Eastward. The weather will remain essentially the same for Wednesday and Thursday with an onshore flow that will continue to strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of the storm system. Skies will remain Partly Cloudy both days, and there will be the risk of patchy morning fog each day. Low temperatures will moderate well into the 50s, with coastal locations likely to only drop to the lower 60s at best by Thursday morning. Afternoon highs will creep back up towards 80, but the stronger Southerly flow should preclude most locations from eclipsing such temperature. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm will be possible by Thursday with beaucoup amounts of low-level moisture in place, and enough daytime heating for a few air mass showers/storms.
The next trough and attendant Pacific cold front will come into view as we round out the work week. This is when rain chances will return to the forecast in earnest. There are still some discrepancies in the models concerning the arrival of the cold front. Right now, best prognostication is for showers and thunderstorms to develop Friday afternoon as forcing increases, and decent instability will in be place as the digging trough approaches. This will be pre-frontal activity. The unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue with low temperatures close to 60, and highs in the upper 70s. It will be a bit breezy as well with the approaching front increasing the pressure differential across the forecast area. The best opportunity for rain this period looks to come in the overnight hours of Friday through about noon Saturday. All of this hinges on the exact timing of the front. The amount of rainfall is to be determined as well, but the early prognosis is for lesser amounts than received with last week's system. No severe weather is expected either as the most dynamics will bypass our area. However, sufficient amounts of moisture will be supplanted in all levels of the atmosphere, and the increased forcing associated with the cold front will increase rain chances. Instability in place will suggest the chance for thunderstorms. Rain chances could climb into the likely category just ahead of the front as moisture pools over the area from the Gulf. The current forecast will reflect the idea that most of the rainfall will occur between the pre-dawn hours and noon on Saturday. As it stands right now, I can't promise that it will be totally dry for the first round of the state High School Football Playoffs on Friday night. It should be mild, though, with temperatures between 68 and 73 throughout the games with lots of humidity and Mostly Cloudy skies.
The front crosses the area sometime Saturday morning, bringing the aforementioned chance of showers and storms just ahead of the front. Rainfall amounts and exact timing will be pinpointed as we get closer to the front. There is still the possibility that the system could come in a little quicker or later than models suggest, it all depends on the evolution of said system. Either way, this will give us another chance to put a dent into the ongoing drought. It will remain unseasonably warm ahead of the front Saturday with temperatures in the lower 60s. Once the front clears the area, rains will come to an end, and a CAA will return. It appears right now, there will be post-frontal moisture, and clouds should decrease as the day progresses on Saturday. Afternoon highs will turn out somewhere in the middle 70s, CAA will try to cancel out daytime heating. Will the rain impact the McNeese or LSU games Saturday night? Due to the current timing of the front, it should be nice and dry (and cooler) for both games. Both games kickoff at 7, and both are home games. McNeese hosts Texas State in their final home game of the season. Expect clear skies and temperatures generally in the 50s for the game with a North breeze about 10-15 mph. Essentially the same conditions are anticipated in Baton Rouge where it will be Homecoming for LSU. They take on my alma mater, UL-Monroe. Who do I root for in that game? The rest of the weekend should be very salvageable with high pressure becoming a fixture for Sunday as it works down the base of the Rockies in the wake of the early weekend cold front. It will be a pleasant day with lots of sunshine and low humidity. After a cool start with morning lows in the 40s, afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 60s for most. The new batch of fine, fair, fall weather will carry over into the new work week just beyond this forecast period. Models hint at an active weather regime for the 2nd half of November, so we'll see how that pans out down the road.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 39/70 48/75 55/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 38/70 47/74 54/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 40/71 49/75 55/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 36/71 44/73 50/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 37/71 44/73 51/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 39/69 48/75 55/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
Monday...Sunny. High 70. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday Night...Clear. Low 48. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear with some Patchy Fog possible late. Low 55. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 78. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday 11/8/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 39
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 6
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 6
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
11-8-10
Low: 39
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Tuesday
11-9-10
Low: 48
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
11-10-10
Low: 55
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
11-11-10
Veteran's Day
Low: 58
High: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
11-12-10
Low: 60
High: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
11-13-10
Low: 62
High: 74
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Sunday
11-14-10
Low: 45
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Tropical Update...
Tomas is no more! The final advisory on Tomas was written Sunday afternoon as Tomas had completed the transition to an extratropical or post-tropical entity. It passed by Haiti as a hurricane late last week and through the SE Bahamas early in the weekend. The damage assessments are still trickling in, but it appears as though another disaster has occurred in Haiti 10 months after the powerful earthquake in January. Life threatening flooding and mudslides were the main threats. Tomas was a minimal hurricane, but with the track the storm took it put Haiti in the right front quadrant of the storm, which is the favorable position for the most adverse weather to occur. Tomas was the season's 19th named storm, and there are only 2 names left on this year's list of names. There are no other areas of concern for the time being as the season winds down.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:36a.m. 10:31p.m.
High: 1:39a.m. 6:16p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.05'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Low: 38
Normal Low: 52
Record Low: 30-1959
High: 69
Normal High: 73
Record High: 89-1924
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.35"
Normal Month to Date: 0.99"
Year to Date: 30.60"
Normal Year to Date: 48.97"
Record: 1.67"- 1943
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 50
High: 78
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 65
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 55
High: 73
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Monday: 6:32a.m.
Sunset Monday: 5:20p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:02a.m.-5:50p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
New Moon- Sunday December 5
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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