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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...They aren't meteorologists, but Guns 'n' Roses was correct when they sang, "And nothing lasts forever, even cold November Rain". That is so true with respect to this forecast. We have received some much needed rainfall over the last couple of days. It is not quite over yet, but we are nearing the end of the this event. The latest cold front moved through the area today, and now we are under the influence of an offshore flow, but it remains on the cloudy and wet side thanks to the associated upper level low on the backside of the storm system. This upper level is spinning over East Texas, and is bound for the offshore waters Wednesday before being shunted Eastward. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will generally be in the 50s across the area with intermittent rain and showers. The widespread shield of rain that moved over the area today ahead of the cold front was pushed Eastward during the afternoon with the frontal boundary. The forecast area was temporarily dry slotted during the late afternoon and evening hours in between the cold front and the approaching upper level low. Rain is beginning to re-develop again tonight, and will continue to do so into tomorrow morning as the upper level low increased instability and forcing over the area once again. A moist axis exists in the mid and upper levels as a slug of warm air is overriding the cooler, stable air mass at the surface. This will keep the chance for periodic showers going through much of the day Wednesday. Rain chances will be in the likely category tonight through Wednesday. Up to an additional inch of rain is expected through Wednesday evening as the ULL influences the region. The ULL will evacuate Eastward through the coastal waters as the day wears on, and a slow improvement will begin. The term to best describe this additional rainfall is intermittent or maybe occasional. Most of it should be light to moderate, but I suppose some embedded heavy rain is possible along with an isolated thunderstorm or two.Typically, in this pattern light to moderate rain is the dominating precip type. CAA will continue as well, and after morning lows in the low to mid 50s, afternoon highs will only muster the mid 60s at best. This certainly is below normal for early November. The pesky, chilly November rain will taper off this afternoon into the evening hours. It won't be an all day affair by any means, just understand that it will rain off and on at any time through the day. Improvement begins to take shape Wednesday night as a secondary cold front works through the area, and helps give the ULL the proverbial boot. This will bring an end to the threat of rain, and will usher in drier and even cooler air as we head into the latter half of the week. Clouds will hang around for a while longer, but even they should begin to break up after midnight. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s for most, with some lower 50s down at the coast as CAA increases.
Skies will clear entirely on Thursday as a strong area of Canadian high pressure slides down the Front Range of the Rockies. CAA will continue, and winds will be an issue Thursday as well. Northerly winds over 20 mph at times will be quite common as the presence of a tight pressure gradient will exist. This will be the result of the ejecting low over the Gulf, and the exiting cold front as well, and also the advancing Canadian high. After the cool start, maximums will fall shy of the 70 degree threshold. I expect highs to remain in the mid to upper 60s at best. The area of high pressure continues to build towards our area Thursday night. Skies will be clear, and the stage will be set for the coolest air of the season. Winds will decouple with the influence of the high strengthening, and temperatures will bottom out in the 40s for all. It will range from near 40 North of Hwy. 190 to near 50 along the coast, but it will certainly be a chilly November night, and perfect for a gumbo. ANy Thursday night High School Football games will be dry and clear with temperatures near 60 at kickoff and well down into the 50s during the game. You will want to have a jacket or sweater if you get cold easy. That brings us to Friday...What can I say? It will be another magnificent Friday as the strong Canadian high pressure will be firmly anchored over the NW Gulf Coastal Plain. After the chilly start, expect highs to reach the low to mid 60s as CAA continues with NW winds at the surface. This is the 10th and final week of the High School Football regular season for 2010, and the weather will be superb for all the huge games. Temperatures will the be the coolest they have been this season, with temperatures already in the upper 50s at kickoff. It will likely be in the upper 40s by the end of each game. The biggest match up this week is the annual district contest between Barbe and Sulphur. Skies will be clear, and Tornadoes (golden or not) can't survive in clear skies (or any conditions when they play the Bucs). These cool game time temperatures set the stage for a cold start to the weekend. We will more than likely have our first brush with the 30s almost everywhere by sunrise Saturday. The Friday night-Saturday morning period will be prime for maximum radiational cooling as the strong high pressure will reside over the area resulting in very light winds. The coldest locations could possibly flirt with freezing, but most of us will be in the mid to upper 30s. The first frost of the season will be possible across the Northern half of the area, with the possibility for some patchy frost down to the I-10 corridor.
The first full weekend of November 2010 will be a winner. High pressure will dominate this period of the forecast. Beautiful weather is on tap both Saturday and Sunday with crystal clear skies, low humidity, and below normal temperatures. Air mass modification will begin for the latter half of the weekend, but temperatures will be below normal through Sunday. After the cold start Saturday morning, temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s across the area. Winds will be very light with the high pressure in control. This will be perfect football weather. To say that there's a huge game in Baton Rouge this week, might be an understatement. LSU hosts SEC West Rival, and defending national champion Alabama at 2:30 in Tiger Stadium. Many of you are heading to the game. No weather worries other than it being a little cool perhaps. Temperatures should generally hover in the low to mid 60s throughout the game, with readings dropping into the 50s late as dusk approaches near the end of the game. McNeese also has a big game this week, as far Soutland Conference implications are concerned. They will travel to Huntsville, Texas to battle Sam Houston State at 2p.m. Saturday afternoon. It will be sunny for this game as well, with a similar temperature regime as well. It will be another cool night on Saturday, but with air mass modification beginning it won't be quite as cool. Low temperatures should range from the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. As we change the clocks on Saturday night into Sunday morning, we won't change weather. We will gain an hour of sleep, as we "fall back". The greatness continues. Sunday will certainly be a "sun" day. The controlling Canadian high will slowly begin to push Eastward during the day. Humidity will remain low even if a subtle return flow is established during the afternoon. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer with generally lower 70s expected. It will be a fantastic day for anything outdoors after church. The Saints play on the road at Carolina this week. It will be nice weather for the noon CST kickoff with temperatures near 60 and bright sunny skies. Gaining an hour of sleep means losing an hour of sunshine in the evening. The return flow will increase more significantly Sunday night, and this is reflected in the temperature forecast with readings in the mid 40s expected across the area. Clear skies will continue.
The end of this forecast period will remain dry for the time being. A long fetch Southerly flow will dominate as the large Canadian high will be well East of the area by Monday, and another storm system will be undergoing it's genesis downstream. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens, and low level moisture will continue to return off the Gulf. Temperatures will transition back to between normal and above normal for the second week of November. Without the presence of a trigger mechanism or any forcing and dynamics, it will remain dry Monday and Tuesday as it stands for now. There is some uncertainty as to how strong this next system will be, but that is normal this far out. We're talking about something downstream in the 7-10 day time frame, so for there to be big discrepancies is nothing unusual. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s for highs by Tuesday, and morning lows will exceed 50 once again by the end of the forecast period. The extended period shows the next storm system around the middle of next week, followed by another round of cool air, perhaps the coolest of the season at the end of next week. Long range models suggest an active pattern through the middle of November, with opportunities for much more needed rainfall. The rain of the past couple of days sure has been nice, but we have by no means busted this seemingly endless drought.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 55/68 51/68 43/65 60 60 40 10 0 0
LFT 55/68 52/68 44/65 60 60 40 10 0 0
BPT 56/68 53/70 45/66 60 60 40 10 0 0
AEX 50/64 45/65 38/60 60 60 40 10 0 0
POE 51/64 45/65 39/61 60 60 40 10 0 0
ARA 59/70 54/71 46/67 60 60 40 10 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy & Cooler with off and on rain likely especially after midnight. Low 55. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy with intermittent rain likely. High 68. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers mainly before midnight. Cooler. Low 51. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy early, becoming Sunny through the day. High 68. NNW wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cooler. Low 43. NNW wind 10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 65. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 11/3/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Light Rain
Temp: 55
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 11
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Rain Around
Temp: 59
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 12
Noon
Weather: Light Rain
Temp: 63
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 14
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Rain
Temp: 68
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 15
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Rain Tapering Off
Temp: 64
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNW 13
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Patchy Light Rain/Drizzle
Temp: 60
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNW 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
11-3-10
Low: 55
High: 68
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Thursday
11-4-10
Low: 51
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-25
Friday
11-5-10
Low: 43
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
11-6-10
Low: 37
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
11-7-10
Daylight Savings Time
Low: 40
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
11-8-10
Low: 45
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10
Tuesday
11-9-10
Low: 51
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Tropical Update...
Tomas continues to be the story in the tropics. Tomas strengthened into a bona fide late season hurricane on Halloween, but weakened considerably Monday as it felt the effects of some wind shear in the Caribbean. However, Tomas is now trending stronger once again as conditions become more conducive for re-strengthening. Tomas has changed very little in strength over the last 24 hours since it weakened considerably from category 2 status Sunday. It remains a minimal tropical storm as of this writing, but strengthening is expected to commence soon. A Hurricane Hunter will investigate the storm overnight to find out if it's stronger. The expectant low shear environment and the present warm waters over the Caribbean suggest the potential for Tomas to re-gain hurricane status in a couple of days. Due to the current structure and weakened state of Tomas, the cyclone is titled vertically. This also impedes development, but as the structure changes the strengthening will commence. Tomas is generally moving due West, and is not in a hurry at present. It is being steered around a mid-latitude subtropical ridge located over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
Tomas will continue its Westward journey through the middle of the Caribbean over the next couple of days. Tomas may slow down a bit more from its current 8 mph on Wednesday. However, acceleration is forecast during the latter half of the week as the low currently affecting our local weather drops into the Gulf and slides Eastward across the Gulf. The cyclonic flow of Tomas will be impeded by this low, and it will cause Tomas to take a Northward turn in the latter half of the week. This low will not only act to turn Tomas Northward and eventually NE by Thursday, but it will also cause the acceleration. The prime atmospheric conditions will persist through Friday. All models suggest Tomas becoming a hurricane once again, and the official NHC forecast reflects this notion as well. The eventual track of Tomas is becoming more clear as well. Tomas will likely move in the general direction of Hispaniola by Friday. It is still uncertain as to whether or not the brunt of Tomas will pass directly over Haiti, but it does appear that either way a serious flood threat is looming for the poor Caribbean nation which is still reeling from the earthquake in January. This is a very unfortunate situation, and our thoughts and prayers need to be with Haiti and everyone in the Caribbean who will endure this late season tropical cyclone. The ultimate track and intensity of Tomas will become more certain over the next couple of days. As Tomas continues to gain latitude over the weekend, the cyclone will begin to weaken as it moves into an environment that will be less favorable for development. It will ultimately merge with a frontal system over the Atlantic next week.
Tropical Storm Tomas Advisory
10p.m. CDT Tuesday, November 2, 2010
...Tomas Holding Its Own For Now...Strengthening Trend to Resume Wednesday...
Latitude: 13.7 N
Longitude: 75.1 W
This is about 385 miles SSW of Port au Prince, Haiti and 320 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast to begin on Wednesday, and Tomas could re-gain hurricane status by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the center of circulation.
Movement: W or 280 @ 8 mph. A gradual turn toward the WNW, NW, and North with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.71" or 1006 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and SE Cuba should monitor the progress of Tomas. It could threaten these areas later this week.
Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Thursday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...North winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. Showers likely in the evening. A slight chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday...North winds 20 to 30 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
......Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 7:09a.m. 7:48p.m.
High: 12:35a.m. 2:33p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.14'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, October 2, 2010
Low: 63
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 33-1966
High: 70
Normal High: 75
Record High: 87-1935
Rainfall
Today: 1.07"
Month to Date: 2.26"
Normal Month to Date: 0.27"
Year to Date: 30.51"
Normal Year to Date: 48.25"
Record: 2.77"- 1995
Sensible Weather Observed:
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 50
High: 75
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 43
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 69
High: 81
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:28a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 6:24p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:58a.m.-6:54p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Saturday November 6
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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