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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The signs of an improving are already present. Rain was far more sporadic in nature today with a big upper level low spinning virtually overhead. Low clouds and ceilings were present throughout the day, and still exist tonight as I write this. The pinwheeling upper level low has moved into the coastal waters, and is shifting East of the Mississippi tonight. We are on the backside of this feature now, and a temperature inversion still exists, as judging by the low clouds over the area. There is still enough lift present for a few showers from time to time over the area. This will continue to be story for much of the overnight hours, but as we head towards dawn rain chances will come to an end as drier air begins to work into all levels of the atmosphere behind a secondary cold front which is in transit as well. Temperatures were on the cool side today with highs only reaching the mid 60s on average, after lows generally in the mid 50s. Even cooler temperatures are on tap for the rest of the week in the wake of this latest front. The rains this week have been beneficial. We are by no means completely out of the drought, but the statewide burn ban has been lifted since rainfall amounts were sufficient enough. However, the parishwide burn bans continue for Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes with the anticipation that the gusty winds will increase the evaporative process, and lead to an elevated fire danger by the weekend. CAA will continue tonight into Thursday as the rain ends and drier conditions take over with high pressure becoming a dominant weather feature for the latter half of the week. Overnight lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight. Temperatures will only drop slowly due to the continued cloud cover.
While sky conditions improve on Thursday, the big story will be the wind. Very windy conditions are expected throughout the day as a very tight pressure gradient will exist across the area as we will reside in between the ejecting low and the advancing high. The pressure differential between these two will produce strong offshore winds across the entire forecast area. Wind gusts well over 30 mph at times will be possible, and these strong gusty winds will ensue before sunrise, and continue through the day. In anticipation of these strong winds, the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for Thursday. Skies will become sunny after a cloudy start. CAA will continue as well, but daytime heating will try to offset the CAA pattern. The CAA and strong winds will result in temperatures struggling to get to the upper 60s. I anticipate clouds to break up rather quickly once the sun comes up, with sunshine by noon for most. However, in this pattern there is always a chance clouds will linger longer than expected due to a lower sun angle as we get deeper into Fall. If this were to occur, then this would hold high temperatures down from what is currently forecast. There really is no way to pinpoint exactly where the temperature inversion may hang in longer, but of course areas further East will be the last to clear out as everything moves from West to East. High pressure will continue edging closer to our vicinity into Thursday night, so winds will begin to calm down during the evening hours. The lingering moisture from this week's rains will begin to evaporate in earnest as the strong blue Northers begin to suck moisture out of the ground. Thursday night will turn out to be one of the coolest nights of the season so far as the winds decouple, and skies will be completely clear. This will set the stage for good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows heading into Friday will be well down into the 40s across the area, with some 30s expected in the coldest locations. Any Thursday Night High School Football games will be dry and cool. Expect clear skies and temperatures generally in the 50s for the games.
A strong high pressure for early November builds into the region further by Friday, and this will result in lighter winds, and a continuation of a cool, dry air mass will remain. Skies will be crystal clear, and humidity values will be comfortably low. Evaporative processes will slow a bit, but the maximum amount of sunshine will keep a good amount of moisture loss ongoing. After the chilly start, temperatures will steadily rise through the day reaching the low to mid 60s across the area. The offshore flow will continue as the Canadian high moves into Texas. The perfect early November day will transition into a clear, cold night for Friday Night as high pressure moves into the forecast area. A jacket or coat will likely be necessary for any outdoor plans you may have to kick off the weekend. High School Football is in its final week of the regular season here in the state of Louisiana. There are some huge match ups as we head into the playoffs next week. Clear skies are expected, and temperatures will fall off quickly. It will be in the mid to upper 50s at kickoff, and in the low to mid 50s at halftime, with some upper 40s by the end of each game. These cool temperatures during the games will continue to radiate downward under prime radiational cooling conditions.
The coldest morning of the season is slated for Saturday morning as readings drop into the 30s for nearly everyone. The exception should be the immediate coast where lower 40s will reside. Skies will be totally clear, and winds will essentially be calm with high pressure overhead. The entire weekend will be absolutely beautiful as the large Canadian high pressure continues its domination along the Gulf Coastal Plain. After the cold start Saturday in which many locations North of I-10 could see their first frost of the season, temperatures will rebound to reach the mid 60s on average. It will warm up quickly with the dry air in place. Humidity values will remain low. Perfect football weather is slated for Saturday as well. McNeese plays on the road in Huntsville, Texas where they will battle Sam Houston State in a Southland Conference contest with a kickoff scheduled for 2p.m. Game time temperatures will generally be in the 62-66 range, with sunny skies. A similar forecast is expected for the huge ball game in Baton Rouge. It'll be LSU vs. Alabama with a 2:30 kickoff on CBS. It will be picturesque setting at Tiger Stadium for this nationally televised game as skies will be full of bright sunshine, and temperatures will be very fall-like with readings between 63-67 during the game. These highs in the 60s are below normal for early November. A slow modification of the air mass will begin Sunday as the controlling high begins to slowly nudge Eastward. Expect another very chilly night on Saturday Night into Sunday Morning with a low around 40 on average, but certainly some 30s will show up once again. Clear skies and light wind will prevail. A beautiful Sunday is on tap, and it will feel great as you head to church. Don't forget to change your clock Saturday Night as we fall back! Afternoon humidity values will once again be very comfortable once again, and afternoon highs will range from the upper 60s to around 70. A very subtle return flow will become established by the end of the day as the high slides into Dixie. Great weather is on tap in Charlotte, NC as well. That's where the Saints will play the Panthers at noon our time...expect it to be sunny with a high near 60 degrees. Air mass modification will become more significant as we head into a new work week. Overnight lows as we close out the weekend will range from the low to mid 40s across the area. This is still a tad below normal for this time of year.
The Monday-Wednesday period of next week will be one that continues the moderating trend. It will remain dry through the end of the forecast period as no large scale weather systems will impact the region during the rest of this period. While a return flow continues to bring back the low level moisture across the area, another fall storm system will be evolving downstream. This will slowly push our way towards the middle of the week. Skies will go from Mostly Sunny on Monday to Partly Cloudy by Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate from lows in the 40s Monday to the mid 50s by Tuesday while afternoon highs rise from the lower to middle 70s Monday to the upper 70s by Wednesday. It seems likely that the next weather maker will occur sometime next week, but there is much model discrepancy as far as exactly when this will occur. There is still some speculation that it could happen before the end of the forecast period, and if does so then rain chances would return to the equation around the middle of next week. However, based on model consensus from data received on Wednesday, the end of the forecast period will remain dry for the time being. There is plenty of time to monitor how the new system evolves, and it is not necessary to be too specific about one solution or another at this point in time since this is still several days away. Just understand that the pattern favors another weather maker sometime next week, with the possibility of decent rain chances on the table once again. The long range models through the middle of the month indicate the chance for more beneficial rains as a progressive pattern develops. A progressive pattern is often a staple of November weather along the Gulf Coast, so we'll see what transpires.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 51/67 41/64 37/65 40 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 52/68 41/63 36/65 40 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 51/68 42/65 37/66 30 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 47/65 37/62 33/63 30 0 0 0 0 0
POE 47/65 37/62 33/64 30 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 54/68 43/66 37/66 40 0 0 0 0 0
*Wind Advisory in effect Thursday.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with Intermittent Light Rain and/or Drizzle ending before sunrise. Low 51. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday...Becoming Sunny. Windy. High 67. NNW wind 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph at times.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 41. NNW wind 10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 64. North wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear and Cold with some Patchy Frost. Low 37. Light North wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 65. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday 11/4/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Windy
Temp: 51
Rain: 10%
Wind: NNW 21
9a.m.
Weather: Decreasing Clouds, Windy
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 25
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny, Windy
Temp: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 27
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny, Still Windy
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 30
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny, Winds Starting to Decrease
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 23
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
11-4-10
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 20-30
Friday
11-5-10
Low: 41
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Saturday
11-6-10
Low: 37
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Sunday
11-7-10
Daylight Savings Time Ends...Fall Back
Low: 39
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Monday
11-8-10
Low: 44
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Tuesday
11-9-10
Low: 48
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Wednesday
11-10-10
Low: 53
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Tropical Update...
Tomas is getting his act together once again. After the weakening state dropped Tomas to a tropical depression early in the day on Wednesday, the cyclone has since re-gained tropical storm status. It continues to be a threat to portions of Caribbean Sea in the coming days. Environmental conditions seem prime for Tomas to continue to strengthen, and the cyclone will have the potential to become a hurricane again within the next day or so. The conditions of a light wind and high oceanic heating content despite it being early November will certainly set the stage for potential intensification, and the official forecast suggests it will indeed attain hurricane status once again. I see no reason to believe otherwise, as the prime conditions for development remain in place. There is a large anti-cyclone to the North of the system, and this will keep the center of circulation on a NNW heading today. The ridge to the North of the storm is beginning to pull away, and will be replaced by a low pressure systems rotating through the Gulf of Mexico at present.
The initial forecast for Tomas is pretty straightforward, at least here in the short term. Tomas will begin to feel the influence of the advancing Gulf low, and it will begin to move from NNW to N and NE over the course of the weekend. Given the superb environment in which Tomas finds himself in a perfect situation to strengthen, and will have the potential to become a late season major hurricane as it nears the Caribbean nations. Unfortunately, Tomas seems targeted for Haiti. This is terrible news for Haiti, which is still dealing with the effects of the disastrous earthquake It is a sure thing that the oncoming trough will help to turn Tomas Northward, and safely keep it away from the contiguous 48 states. Whether or not, the center of circulation with Tomas will pass directly over Haiti remains to be seen. However, it seems more than obvious that much of the Caribbean will be impacted by Tomas, and at the very least a serious flooding threat will evolve in Haiti. Tomas will also accelerate his forward speed as we head into Friday and the weekend, as a very fast upper level low develops in response to the forthcoming trough. This will help turn Tomas to the NE, and then it will accelerate out into the open waters of the Atlantic early next week. The storm will quickly brush by the SE Bahamas, likely as a hurricane before it begins to weaken over the middle of the Atlantic into early week. Tomas will begin to transition to an extratropical or post-tropical entity by Monday and Tuesday of next week with a due Eastward motion noted at that time. Tomas will ultimately merge with a frontal boundary that will lead to the final decay of Tomas sometime next week.
Tropical Storm Tomas Advisory
10p.m. CDT Wednesday, November 3, 2010
...Tomas Undergoes a Strengthening Phase...Hurricane Status Possible by Late Thursday...
Latitude: 15.7 N
Longitude: 75.8 W
This places the center of Tomas about 305 miles SW of Port au Prince, Haiti and 170 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is expected on Thursday, and Tomas should become a hurricane Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 70 miles from the center.
Movement: NNW or 330 degrees @ 7 mph. A turn to the North and then NNE is expected through Friday. On this track, the center of Tomas will approach Haiti Friday, and the SE Bahamas on Saturday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.56" or 1001 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, while a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica, the Southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti border to Barahona, and for the Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, & Holquin.
Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday. The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Tomas will come at 4a.m. CDT.
...Marine Forecast...
*Gale Warning in effect.*
Tonight...North winds 20 to 30 knots increasing to 25 to 35 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...North winds 25 to 35 knots decreasing to 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday Night...North winds 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 4 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 7:48a.m. 8:41p.m.
High: 12:53a.m. 3:04p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.24'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Low: 57
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 30-1966
High: 67
Normal High: 75
Record High: 88-1916
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.26"
Normal Month to Date: 0.41"
Year to Date: 30.51"
Normal Year to Date: 48.39"
Record: 1.05"- 1934
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
Drizzle
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 51
High: 77
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 45
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 68
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:29a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:23p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:59a.m.-6:53p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Saturday November 6
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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