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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Tuesday was yet another of very un-November like weather. The stagnant pattern of unseasonable warmth continued, and will be with us again today as well. A change is gonna come in the not so distant future, but for now we're stuck with the unseasonably warm and humid weather. Overall, our weather is not that bad compared to what is transpiring across a large portion of the country with everything from blizzard conditions to severe weather. Today will start off very similar to the preceding days with generally Mostly Cloudy with the low stratus deck present. Fog should not be that much of a problem due to increased mixing. However, the fog will be patchy in nature across the forecast area, and will certainly be more of an issue in areas that saw some rain on Tuesday. Morning lows will be quite warm generally in the upper 60s. These readings will be very similar to what our normal highs are this time of year. We are awaiting our next strong cold front, but at present it has slowed its forward progress this morning as the flow across our part of the world is parallel to the front. A strong high pressure over the SE U.S. is also holding up the front for the time being. Despite the copious amounts of low-level moisture, the remainder of the atmosphere will remain largely capped. Also, forcing will be at a negative with the lack of a trigger mechanism. Generally a Partly to Mostly Cloudy day is on tap. An isolated shower or two is possible mainly due to the impacts of daytime heating, but most of us will stay dry for another day. Afternoon highs will again reach or exceed the 80 degree mark. We won't approach records by any means, but it will certainly continue to feel very un-Thanksgiving like. Travel conditions will be more than manageable across this area, but use extreme caution if you are heading out of state towards the North into the Mid West or Mid Mississippi Valley.
Relative calmness continues for a little while longer for tonight into Thanksgiving morning. The unseasonable warmth will remain in place with the long fetch Southerly flow persisting. Generally Mostly Cloudy skies are expected, and temperatures will start out in the upper 60s once again. The strong cold front will finally begin to move towards our area during the day on Thanksgiving as an active Jet Stream shifts a deepening trough towards the Gulf coast. Moisture will pool out ahead of the front, but at the same time the best dynamics and lift will bypass our region. Nevertheless, the necessary lifting mechanism will be in place for some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. The warmth will continue with highs near 80 once again, and shorts and T-shirts is how you should dress the turkey this year. A widespread rain event is not expected ahead of the cold front. No severe weather is expected either. The front will enter the forecast area from the NW during the afternoon, and push into the coastal waters quickly by Thanksgiving night. WAA will cease, and a transition to CAA will begin. This air mass does have some Arctic connections, and a very significant cool down will commence Thanksgiving night. Rain chances ahead of the front will be in the 30-40% range, however, rain chances will increase in the wake of the front. Overrunning will develop in the wake of the front, at least for a short time. The nature of the cold air will be shallow at first, and therefore, a layer of warm, moist air will ride up and over the infiltrating cold surface air. This SW flow aloft will create a saturated boundary layer, and the end result will be a period of widespread overrunning rains. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well with some elevated convection. The overnight hours into Friday morning will be our shot at widespread rain this go around. Rainfall totals could reach around an inch or so. As the rain falls, the temperatures will follow suit. After the highs near 80 on Thanksgiving, minimums by Friday morning will be well down into the 40s...certainly more like November ought to feel. If you are heading out to the stores for Black Friday shopping, you will want to have a coat or jacket and you might as well take the rain gear too. The apparent temperatures will be in the 30s with a strong offshore flow in place, and the ongoing rain.
Conditions will improve as the day progresses Friday. The overrunning rains will continue into the daylight hours, but will be coming to an end before noon most likely. The cold air mass filtering into the region will grow denser, and cold air will finally take over at all levels as winds shift aloft. The boundary layer will dry out, thus causing the end of the isentropic lift event. High pressure centered over the Rockies will build into the Gulf Coast region during the day, and skies will begin to clear in the afternoon. CAA will continue, and with the lingering rain and cloud cover for much of the day, high temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s. I have undercut guidance by several degrees, as models likely have a hard time judging the strength of the cold air. It is conceivable that some areas won't get out of the 40s, but I will reflect lower 50s for the time being. Certainly, it will by far be the coolest day we've seen so far this season, and this air mass will be the coldest air mass of the season thus far. The strong area of high pressure becomes further established by Friday night, and skies become totally clear. This sets the stage for a night of radiative cooling, and in turn the coldest night of the season is on tap. Lows will be in the 30s for most of us, but the coldest locales will dip into the upper 20s. The first freeze of the season could occur for the Lake Area, especially if models are indeed underestimating the strength of the cold air. Either way, it'll be time for a gumbo and to throw a log on the fire. CAA continues with the offshore flow, although winds will be much lighter as the high pressure builds closer to Louisiana.
The latter half of the long weekend will be clear and bright with high pressure in control. The cold start on Saturday with give way to a clear and cool day. Highs will reach the upper 50s, and CAA will cease. Air mass modification begins heading into Sunday with another cold start with lows back down into the 30s area wide. It will be warmer on Sunday afternoon with highs creeping back into the 60s. A return flow of Gulf air will commence during that time as well with the strong Canadian high pressure sliding off to our East into Dixie. Stepping back to Saturday for just a minute, there's a huge ball game in Little Rock, AR Saturday afternoon as LSU travels to play Arkansas in the annual Thanksgiving Rivalry Weekend game. It is a 2:30 p.m. kickoff, and you can expect a sunny day in Central Arkansas. It will be quite chilly with highs in the low 50s at best. Expect a game time temperature around 53, and that reading will fall into the 40s during the second half. The weather will be a lot more cooperative as everyone heads home from the long weekend. At least the cooler weather will also make it feel like the holidays. If you plan on decorating your home for Christmas, it will be perfect weather for that as well. Absolutely no mention of rain is slated for the holiday weekend after Friday morning.
Another storm system is in the fold for early next week as we close out the month of November already. Clouds will increase with a more pronounced Southerly flow in place Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will be much warmer as well with morning lows back into the 50s on Monday morning as everyone heads back to work. Clouds increase further during the day Monday, and rain chances enter the fray by late in the day as another trough and attendant cold front slide toward the forecast area. Temperatures easily reach the 70s again for Monday afternoon with intensifying WAA, so it will be weather roller coaster, very typical of late November. Better chances for rain, perhaps in the likely category, will exist for Tuesday as said cold front moves through. All indications are this will be another strong front, but no severe weather is expected as the best dynamics will once again be absent in this forecast area. Temperatures will be mild with morning lows in the 50s once again. The timing of the front should push it through the area during the morning hours, and CAA will become re-established during the day. Temperatures reflect this with highs dropping back into the lower 60s. A very small diurnal range is indicated for the end of the forecast period. Rain should come to an end during the day Tuesday with fresh dose of high pressure building in. This should set the stage for a dry and chilly start to the month of December which looms just beyond this forecast period.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 68/81 66/80 44/52 0 10 10 30 70 60
LFT 68/82 67/81 45/53 0 10 10 30 70 60
BPT 69/82 67/80 43/52 0 10 10 30 70 60
AEX 65/83 66/77 40/48 0 10 20 30 70 60
POE 65/82 66/77 41/49 0 10 20 30 70 60
ARA 69/80 68/81 45/54 0 10 10 30 70 60
Today...Mostly Cloudy with some Partly Cloudy Intervals. Continued Unseasonably Warm & Humid. High 81. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy & Continued Warm & Humid. Low 66. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thanksgiving Day...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Warm & Humid. Windy. High 80. SSW wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Thanksgiving Night...Cloudy with rain & a few thunderstorms likely. Turning Much Colder & Windy. Low 44. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday...Cloudy, Cold, & Windy with rain likely early. Rain ending during the morning with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. High 52. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, diminishing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.Chance of rain 60% early.
Wednesday 11/24/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Some Patchy Fog
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
9a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Really Humid
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
11-24-10
Low: 68
High: 81
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
11-25-10
Thanksgiving Day...Happy Thanksgiving
Low: 66
High: 80
Rain: 30%...70% Night
Wind: SSW 15-25
Friday
11-26-10
Low: 44
High: 52
Rain: 60% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 35-45
Saturday
11-27-10
Low: 32
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25-40 A.M.
Sunday
11-28-10
Low: 35
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
W.C.: 35-45
Monday
11-29-10
Low: 57
High: 72
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
11-30-10
Low: 51
High: 57
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 40s
...Tropical Update...
All is quiet on the tropical front.
...Marine Forecast...
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thanksgiving Day...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Thanksgiving Night...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:54a.m. 10:14p.m.
High: 1:12a.m. 6:26p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.00'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Low: 72
Normal Low: 48
Record Low: 28-1975
High: 82
Normal High: 68
Record High: 89-1896
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.22"
Normal Month to Date: 3.51"
Year to Date: 31.47"
Normal Year to Date: 51.49"
Record: 1.80"- 1986
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 51
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 41
High: 77
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 48
High: 66
Rain: 0.29"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:13p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:16a.m.-5:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
New Moon- Sunday December 5
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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