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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The much anticipated, nice cold front pushed through right on schedule Thursday morning. It scoured out a very rich tropical air mass that was in place out ahead of it, and replaced it with a nice, refreshing fall air mass. Very low humidity and strong winds were the most noticeable differences along with the crystal clear blue skies. Daytime heating tried to offset CAA, and afternoon highs barely topped the 80 degree threshold. Humidity values were down in the 10-15% range, readings almost unprecedented for South Louisiana. NNW winds on the order of 15-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph were quite common. This led to prime red flag conditions across the area, with the expectation that conditions would be prime for wildfires given the ongoing drought. Very little in the way of rainfall fell this week ahead of the boundary, and we didn't put much of a dent at all in the drought. The burn ban will continue for at least another month. High pressure in the wake of the strong cold front will continue building into the region in the early morning hours, and the stiff NW winds will gradually decrease. The super dry air mass, and beautiful clear skies will result in a rapid reduction in temperatures overnight. This sets the stage for the coldest air so far this season as we start the day on Friday. Expect readings to range from the mid 30s in the coldest locations across the forecast area, to the lower 40s here along I-10, and the upper 40s at the coast. The winds will stay up just a bit overnight, to keep temperatures from really reaching their full potential. It will still be chilly enough, and this certainly qualifies as gumbo weather.
A fantastic Friday is on tap as a strong area of high pressure in the wake of the cold front will continue to propagate closer to SW Louisiana. The comfortable humidity values will be a staple once again, and after the chilly start temperatures will steadily warm up and reach the lower 70s. This is a bit below normal for this time of year. The super dry air mass will produce cloud-free conditions, and it will be an absolutely outstanding October day as we close out another work week. The coolest night so far this season is on tap Friday night as the high pressure essentially moves right over head, resulting in decoupling of the wind. This will set the stage for prime radiational cooling conditions across the forecast area with a starry night on tap. A light jacket or sweater might be required for the evening if you are planning on heading out to any of the many High School Football games. It will be absolutely perfect football weather with the clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will drop off quickly after sunset, and I would expect in the upper 60s at kickoff, and then into the mid 50s by game's end. This will ultimately lead to minimums reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s on average across the area with the coolest locations winding up in the mid 30s. The coast will be the warmest area as usual, and you can expect mid 40s down there.
Outstanding October weather will close out the month for Halloween weekend. Saturday will be another fabulous fall day with temperatures reaching the mid 70s for afternoon highs with high pressure locked in place over Louisiana during the day. A light offshore flow will persist, and the humidity values will remain super low once again with nothing but sunshine in store. This is great news as McNeese Homecoming 2010 reaches its climax. It will be very comfortable for tailgating Saturday afternoon, and it will have a nice little nip in the air for the game on Saturday night. Kickoff is at 7 as the Cowboys take on SLC foe the Nicholls State Colonels. Air mass modification will ensue Saturday, and temperatures will not be quite as cool Saturday night. Temperatures will fall off from the upper 60s at kickoff to the upper 50s by game's end with clear skies en vogue. Have fun, enjoy the game, don't forget the blue and gold, & Geaux Cowboys! Sunday is Halloween, and this year the weather will be a treat. It will be a beautiful morning on the way to and from church. The controlling high pressure will allow the month of October to finish on a beautiful note. A very subtle onshore flow will commence during the day Sunday as the large anti-cyclone will begin to shift Eastward, and be anchored to the East of the Mississippi. Humidity levels will be a bit higher, but not all that noticeable just yet since the deeper moisture will be well far to the South in the Gulf. The air mass modification will continue. Expect Sunday morning's lows to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area, and with another day of bright sunshine and no clouds, highs will top out in the upper 70s, right at normal for this time of year. Clear skies and comfortable temperatures are expected with just a bit more noticeable humidity for Sunday evening and Sunday night for all the Halloween festivities. Expect temperatures to generally be in the 60s throughout the evening. It will be a spookily busy evening on Sunday as we also have a huge Saints game to watch. The Saints take on the Steelers in the Sunday Night game of the week on NBC. Kickoff is at 7:20p.m. or so from the Superdome, so weather is not an issue. It will be a beautiful day for driving to New Orleans, and quiet weather is expected for the return trip home as well. Geaux Saints and Happy Halloween!
Moisture return amplifies on Monday as we start a new work week and the month of November. An intensifying onshore flow will develop over the area as another storm system gets revved up downstream. An amplifying trough, and attendant cold front will be in transit at this time. Out ahead of it we will see a period of warmer temperatures, and much more humid air. Skies will be Partly Cloudy and temperatures will be in the mid 50s to around 60 for lows, while afternoon highs creep back above the 80 degree threshold. The cold front will quickly approach the area late in the day Monday, and ample low level moisture will be in place at that time. The main thrust of the dynamics will once again bypass the area to the North, and leave us with just a slight chance of a few showers or a thunderstorm generated by the typical lift or forcing associated with the cold front itself. It still appears as though we will not be in a favorable pattern to bust this drought anytime soon. No widespread rain is expected, and certainly no severe weather is expected. Timing discrepancies still exist with respect to the boundary itself. The best opportunity for any rain with the front will come in the overnight hours on Monday into the day on Tuesday as the front crosses the area. It will push into the coastal waters on Tuesday. The brief spell of above normal temperatures will quickly transition back to below normal as this front appears to be the strongest so far this fall. Clouds will stay with us into the day on Tuesday, and a spotty shower is possible until the deeper moisture is scoured out. Tuesday morning lows will be very similar to that of Monday given the timing of the front, but afternoon highs will be somewhat cooler as CAA takes over. Expect the maxes to drop back into the middle 70s, closer to the normal for early November.
The end of the forecast period on Wednesday and Thursday features some uncertainties. It seems certain that we will experience the coolest weather so far this season, but will it clear out or not is the big question. Models depict a very active Jet Stream, and with the largely amplified trough digging across the U.S., some sort of upper level low or short wave may emanate out from the trough. This feature may traverse the state from West to East in the mid-week time frame. This would keep cloud cover over the area, and at least some chance of rain. It doesn't appear to be a set up that will favor a significant, widespread rain event at this point. However, it could turn out to be a situation where there will be a higher chance of rain behind the front, that there will be ahead of it. It remains to be seen. I will pay close attention to how things evolve over the weekend, and will have a much better idea of what will transpire early next week. The models depict a slow progression of said upper level feature, and this would keep the unsettled pattern in place through the end of the forecast period. I will highlight just a slight chance of rain for each day Tuesday-Thursday, since this is a pattern that is not set in stone. Temperatures will trend below normal for Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the Election Day cold front. Expect lows to drop back into the 40s, and highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s with the added cloud cover and continued CAA over the area. The overall cooler and unsettled pattern may carry over into the following weekend as per long range models.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/73 41/75 48/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 44/72 42/75 47/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 45/73 43/75 49/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 37/70 36/71 44/79 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 38/70 37/71 44/79 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 45/73 42/75 48/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Much Cooler. Low 43. NW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 73. North wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 41. Calm wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 75. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 48. East wind 5 mph.
Sunday...Sunny. High 78. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday 10/29/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 43
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 12
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 13
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 15
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear, Cooling Off Quick
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
10-29-10
Low: 43
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Saturday
10-30-10
Low: 42
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Sunday
10-31-10
Halloween
Low: 48
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Monday
11-1-10
All Saint's Day
Low: 58
High: 81
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
11-2-10
Election Day
Low: 55
High: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
11-3-10
Low: 48
High: 68
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Thursday
11-4-10
Low: 44
High: 65
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Tropical Update...
Last time I talked of 3 suspect areas that we are currently watching. This remains unchanged tonight. There is now a newly classified system in the Western Atlantic, Tropical Storm Shary. There is still the potential for another named storm to form sometime between now and the weekend.
Shary has formed in the Western Atlantic to add another name to an already very active tropical season here in 2010. This tropical system has formed from a persistent surface low pressure an area of showers and thunderstorms to the SE of Bermuda. It continued to strengthen throughout the day on Thursday, and has intensified enough to garner tropical storm status as of 10p.m. Shary is the 18th named storm of the 2010 season. This is now the most named storms in one season since the unprecedented season of 2005. Shary is a small tropical system in size and stature, and its lifespan should be rather short-lived as well. The forecast for Shary is fairly straightforward as well. Shary is moving an uncertain NW tonight, as the center tries to reform. Additional center fixes are possible on Friday as the system organizes. Shary will begin to turn N and NE over the next 24 hours as it feels the influence of a large mid-latitude advancing Westward from the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. As Shary begins to feel the influence of the trough into the weekend, wind shear will increase from the South and SW, and this will create a much more hostile environment in the Western Atlantic. This means that Shary will likely begin to weaken over the weekend after some subtle intensification occurs in the short term. Shary should remain a tropical storm, and could ultimately have some impacts on Bermuda over the weekend.
Tropical Storm Shary Advisory
10p.m. CDT Thursday, October 28, 2010
...Shary, the 18th Named Storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forms in the Western Atlantic...
Latitude: 27.3 N
Longitude: 63.7 W
This is about 350 miles S of Bermuda.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 110 miles from the center.
Movement: NW or 310 degrees @ 23 mph. A turn toward the North along with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn to the NE will occur tonight. On this track, the center of Shary will pass very near or over Bermuda late today.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.65" or 1004 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds are expected to impact Bermuda beginning this afternoon.
The next complete update on Shary will be at 4a.m. CDT Friday.
Elsewhere, could we be on the verge of having Tomas? A vigorous tropical wave continues to slowly get better organized over the Southern Atlantic off the Northern coast of South America and to the SE of Leeward Islands. A large are of showers and thunderstorms persists in this area. The environmental conditions over this area are favorable for continued development of this system, and it could officially become classified as a tropical system within the next couple of days as it continues to move W to WNW between 15-20 mph. This tropical wave will produce gusty winds and heavy rain over the Windward Islands, portions of Venezuela, and Northern portions of Guyana over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this area about a 50% chance to develop within the next 48 hours.
Finally, the third suspect area is also over the open waters of the Atlantic. Another area of low pressure located about 1,200 miles NW of the Northernmost Cape Verde Islands is trying to get better organized. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in the last 24 hours, but environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for significant development during the next 24 hours. There is about a 30% chance of this system developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours as it moves slowly to the West.
Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Friday.*
Tonight...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
......Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 1:56p.m.
High: 11:08p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.37'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Low: 70*
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 35-1898
High: 82
Normal High: 77
Record High: 92-1927
*- 70 was the morning low, but the official low will be lower than that as the temperature was still dropping as I was posting this Thursday night.
Rainfall
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 2.24"
Normal Month to Date: 3.55"
Year to Date: 28.25"
Normal Year to Date: 47.59"
Record: 3.24"- 1985
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 52
High: 77
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 46
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 62
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:25a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:28p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:55a.m.-6:58p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
New Moon- Saturday November 6
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Have a great Friday, Halloween Weekend & God Bless!
-DM-
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