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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We are stuck in a proverbial rut! The stagnant, late summer pattern which has enveloped the region since last week remains in tact early this week. The weather was benign around here over the weekend compared to our neighbors to the North. A rather potent upper level system bypassed our area to the North over the weekend, and produced severe weather from Texas into the Ozarks and into portions of the Deep South. Some reports of tornadoes occurred with lots of hail and wind damage in that part of the world. Fortunately, we missed out on the violent weather, but unfortunately we missed out on any significant rain as well as the potency of this upper level system robbed all of the available dynamics and keep our area high and dry. The main issue for us the last couple of days has been wind. The increased pressure gradient between the high situated off the SE U.S. coast, and the advancing upper level storm, and a digging trough and attendant surface low pressure system to our West is the culprit. This kept a warm, moist onshore flow going across Louisiana Monday. Our proximity to the bypassing ULL kept us with Partly Cloudy skies and unseasonable October warmth. Morning lows were generally in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area, while Monday highs reached mid 80s on average. The Southerly breezes made it feel a bit more bearable out there, but there was actually a heat index in place. The Southerly winds on the order of 15-25 mph were dominate for much of the day. The stagnant period of weather will continue in the short term. Expect Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy skies overnight and into the morning hours of Tuesday. Temperatures will only fall off into the upper 60s to lower 70s under a fall October moon. The winds will decouple somewhat only because of the loss of daytime heating, but the onshore flow will persist. The winds will keep any fog threat at a minimum due to the atmospheric mixing the wind generates.
The advancing or bypassing, whichever you prefer, upper level system continues to move away on Tuesday, and the next storm system will continue to approach the area. A strong cold front will be diving SE, and will be advancing into the state. It will push into the Northern half of the state, perhaps as far as the extreme Northern portion of this forecast area during the day Tuesday. However, it will temporarily come to a halt as it advances out ahead of the main trough causing it to lose its momentum of forward progress. The strong long fetch onshore flow will only be enhanced by the approach of this boundary. However, all the dynamics generated by the advancing trough will take a similar trajectory to the previously mentioned upper level low, so our weather will not change much locally. The positioning of the cold front will leave it far enough removed from the area, that very little lift is expected to be generated at least for Tuesday. The mid and upper levels will remain largely capped. Now, given the deep tropical air mass in place a few streamer showers and storms could develop during the peak heating hours in the afternoon. Generally Partly Cloudy skies are expected with a very similar temperature regime to that of Monday. Highs should reach the mid 80s for most, with a few upper 80s dotting the landscape. It will be closer to 80 at the coast given the marine influence. A slight rain chance is highlighted for Tuesday, but certainly no drought buster. A slight chance of rain will be maintained for the overnight hours Tuesday as the frontal boundary remains locked up to our North, but overall the stagnant pattern will remain. Overnight minimums should only be close to 70 once again, much above the seasonal norm for late October.
The stagnant tendencies of this atmosphere will continue for the mid-week period, but a change for the better will be on the horizon. A change in the zonal flow will mean that the stalled cold front to our North will begin to translate Southward once again. It will evolve slowly, however. It will take a nudge from another piece of energy developing downstream in the amplifying trough. Until it arrives, the stagnant pattern will persist. Do not expect much change for Wednesday. The stiff onshore flow will continue, and there will be a slight possibility of some scattered convective activity. However, the main thrust of energy will again be displaced to our North closer to the surface low, so only streamer showers/storms are expected as the strong winds feed into the advancing surface low. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected, and temperatures will once again be above the seasonal norm for late October. The best chance for SW Louisiana to be the beneficiary of some much needed rainfall will come in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. The digging trough, and additional short wave to our North along the trough will give the front the nice nudge it needs to advance into and through the area. The lifting mechanism that is the cold front itself will slice into the rich, tropical air mass, and should help to generate some nocturnal convection. This will likely be convection that forms along the boundary to our North and pushes into the forecast area as the front advances into Thursday morning. Any showers and thunderstorms will remain scattered at best with the best dynamics to produce a nice widespread rain bypassing the forecast area to the NE. Certainly, no severe weather is on the slate with the absence of dynamics. Rainfall amounts will vary greatly, from nothing to about a 1/2" in the lucky locales. I feel 30% is the best we will be able to muster at this time for the Wednesday night/early Thursday time frame. The front will have no problem reaching well into the coastal waters, as it does so a pattern of CAA will take over Thursday morning. There is still a bit of uncertainty exactly what time the boundary will cross the forecast area, but it seems that it should come between 6Z and 12Z Thursday (midnight-6a.m.). The stagnant air mass will quickly be displace as the front moves on by. A cooler regime will begin Thursday with lows down into the mid to upper 60s by sunrise. The strong Southerly flow will be replaced by a nice, refreshing Northerly breeze.
The atmosphere will quickly dry out behind the front Thursday, and any rain that does fall will become a distant memory as the evaporation process will be increased by the drier, cooler air mass and the offshore flow. Conditions will be more fall-like Thursday in the CAA pattern. Some clouds will linger Thursday morning, but as high pressure becomes the dominant weather feature the sky condition will transition to Sunny as the day wears on. It will still be a warm afternoon, as the coolest air lags behind a bit, and daytime heating tries to offset the cold air advection. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area. The coolest air of the season will be ushered in by this cold front. It will qualify as gumbo weather as we head into Friday. Temperatures will do a complete 180, meaning we will transition from an above normal temperature scheme to a below normal temperature scheme. Under crystal clear, moonlit skies and continued CAA Thursday night/Friday morning, temperatures will be in the 40s area wide with the exception of the immediate coast by sunrise Friday. This is great news for Thursday evening as McNeese's homecoming festivities kick into high gear. It looks clear and cool for the Homecoming Parade, Pep Rally, Bonfire, and Fireworks. Grab a sweater or jacket and enjoy! High pressure moves down the base of the Rockies and into the Red River Valley Friday, and supplies us with a new round of outstanding October weather. Friday afternoon maximums will not eclipse the 80 degree mark. Expect highs to generally be in the mid 70s on average, but some lower 70s will be possible across the Northern portion of the area. Then there's Friday night...a great time to watch a football game somewhere in the area! We are lucky to have some of the greatest High School Football in the country right here in our own backyard. This will already be week 9 of the season, and it may perhaps be the best weather Mother Nature has to offer so far this season. You might want to bring a jacket or a coat especially if you get cold easy. Temperatures in the mid 70s Friday afternoon will quickly fall into the 50s once the sun goes down. Clear skies are expected throughout each ball game, and I expect a kickoff temperature around 66 or so, and then about 57 by game's end. There's always some big games in SW Louisiana, but perhaps the biggest this week is the district contest between crosstown rivals Barbe and LaGrange! These cool football temperatures will continue to radiate downward, and by Saturday morning it will be in the lower to middle 40s down to the I-10 corridor, and the usual colder locations should be in the upper end of the 30s for the second time this month. Winds will go nearly calm as the high builds into Texas.
The weekend weather is always a topic of discussion, and I always say it's never too early to look ahead to the weekend. The good news is we are one step closer with Monday out of the way. The even better news is that the weekend looks splendid. Saturday will be about as good as it ever gets around here with very low humidity. It will terrific tailgating weather for McNeese homecoming. Expect sunny skies and temperatures after a very cool October morning will reach the upper 70s or so. Winds will be very light as the high remains in complete control. The game itself is at 7p.m. as McNeese takes on Nicholls State in another conference match up. Clear and cool weather is expected. Temperatures should be in the upper end of the 60s at kickoff and near 60 by the end of another McNeese victory. You might want a little blue and gold jacket or sweater with you at the game if you get chilly easy! It won't be quite as cool Saturday night as the high pressure will be centered just to our East by this time. No, I didn't forget to mention LSU! They have their bye week this week. Expect a temperature in the lower 50s by sunrise Sunday. It is a busy weekend from homecoming to Halloween! That's we have to look forward to on Sunday. It should be a fairly nice day Sunday despite the return of an onshore flow with the high pushing into Dixie. The deep moisture will be well out into the Gulf, so it will take awhile for significant moisture to return. Skies should remain Mostly Sunny for Sunday with a few puffy clouds possible in the afternoon. Temperature moderation will continue thanks to the Southerly flow. Afternoon highs should creep back above 80 degrees, but it will still be comfortable, and won't be nearly as warm as it is right now. All Halloween activities and events get the green light this year. It should be fairly comfortable for all the ghosts and goblins this year. Though, it will be more humid by Sunday evening. Clear skies are expected with just a few creepy clouds possible. Temperatures will
generally be in the 70s for the evening . Whether you are going to a Halloween party, trick or treating, or to an event at your church it will be dry. There is also some football game of interest Sunday night. The Saints battle the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Superdome on Sunday Night Football. Of course, no weather issues with the game being in the Dome, but if you are going to the game expect a dry trip to and from New Orleans. Hopefully, the Saints will rebound from their absymal performance against Cleveland Sunday. Warm air advection increases in earnest as we head into November. Expect Monday morning lows to only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Most of the area along and South of I-10 should be in the 60s, back above normal for this time of year.
As we turn the calendar to November, we will be awaiting another cold front. A new trough and attendant cold front will be cranking up to our NW, and will be in transit at the end of the forecast period. Ahead of this boundary, a warm and humid air mass will be the story for the end of the forecast period on Monday...All Saints Day! The lack of a focal mechanism should preclude a significant chance of rain at least for Monday, but with the deeper moisture back in place a few advection showers are possible, and a slight 20% chance is noted for the end of the forecast period. We will start November with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies, and above normal temperatures with highs reaching the lower threshold of the 80s for most. The pressure differential will come into play once again, and some breezy conditions are to be expected across the area as the next fall storm system comes into range. There is still some timing issues with the arrival of the next front at the end of the period, but right now the consensus is that it will arrive, and push through the area just beyond this forecast period on Election Day next Tuesday. This could pose the potential for a stormy mid-term Election day, but if that is what ultimately happens, please don't let it stop you from voting. The idea of a significant rain event at this point is on the table, but certainly not a given in this La Nina pattern, so we will just have to wait and see how it all evolves. Another significant cool down should follow behind next week's front. Maybe, a pattern shift will arise in November that will allow opportunity for some significant rain events to bust this drought. One can only hope!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 72/86 70/87 66/80 10 20 10 20 30 20
LFT 71/87 71/88 67/81 10 20 10 20 30 20
BPT 73/86 72/87 66/81 10 20 10 20 30 10
AEX 71/87 66/87 56/77 10 20 20 30 10 0
POE 71/87 66/87 56/78 10 20 20 30 10 0
ARA 73/86 72/87 69/83 10 20 10 20 30 20
Tonight...Partly Cloudy and Unseasonably Warm. Continued Breezy. Low 72. South wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 86. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 70. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 87. SSW wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 66. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph after midnight.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of early morning showers & thunderstorms. Clearing through the day, and becoming Sunny. Cooler & Breezy. High 80. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Tuesday 10/26/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Breezy
Temp: 72
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Windy
Temp: 78
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Windy
Temp: 81
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 17
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Windy, Maybe a Scattered Storm
Temp: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Windy
Temp: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 18
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Watching Storms Up North
Temp: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 13
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
10-26-10
Low: 72
High: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Wednesday
10-27-10
Low: 70
High: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 15-25
Thursday
10-28-10
Low: 66
High: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Friday
10-29-10
Low: 47
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Saturday
10-30-10
Low: 44
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
10-31-10
Halloween
Low: 50
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10
Monday
11-1-10
All Saints Day
Low: 60
High: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Tropical Update...
Richard made landfall as a hurricane in Belize Sunday night, and is now over Southern Mexico, and is a decaying/transition storm. Richard is nearing the SW Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of Campeche, but there is no worries about re-generation tonight. The environment out ahead of Richard is a hostile one, and it is late in the season now. Temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico have cooled significantly. Richard's circulation has been greatly interrupted due to its interaction with land. There is not much of the storm left now. A transition to an extratropical/post-tropical low is ongoing, and this should be completed sometime Tuesday as Richard emerges over water again. There is very little in the way of convection near the low-level center at this time. This should be the last discussion of Richard as it will complete its transition to post-tropical during the next 24 hours, and the hostile environs over the SW Gulf of Mexico will not allow for any thought of re-generation.
10p.m. CDT Monday, October 25, 2010
...Richard Decaying Over Southern Mexico...
Latitude: 18.4 N
Longitude: 91.6 W
This is 20 miles SE of Cuidad del Carmen, Mexico.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 mph w/ higher gusts. Weakening will continue, and Richard should become an extratropical entity Tuesday.
Movement: WNW or 295 degrees @ 7 mph. A turn toward the NW is expected during the overnight hours, and on this track the center of circulation will emerge into the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb. or 29.65"
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect.*
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 feet building to 5 feet after midnight.
Tuesday...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to around 15 knots by the afternoon. Seas 5 feet subsiding to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:13a.m. 11:10p.m.
High: 2:33a.m. 7:31p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.20'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, October 25, 2010
Low: 72
Normal Low: 56
Record Low: 36-1999
High: 85
Normal High: 78
Record High: 92-1927
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.23"
Normal Month to Date: 3.19"
Year to Date: 28.24"
Normal Year to Date: 47.23"
Record: 7.00"- 1900
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 50
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 43
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 56
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:22a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 6:31p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:52a.m.-7:01p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
New Moon- Saturday November 6
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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