My apologies for the lack of blogs over the past few days. I have not been able to post due to personal matters. Everything is fine, and I am back in the saddle again here. Once again, my apologies for lack of blog posts.
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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion....A rather stagnant pattern has become established across the NW Gulf Coast. It is one that is more representative of late summer as opposed to fall. A cold front sagged into the forecast area on Wednesday, but it was losing its momentum as it bumped into the main flow across the Southern U.S. at this time. The essentially zonal flow is unfortunately not conducive to support passage of this frontal boundary. It will fizzle out in the coming days, and for areas in which the front did pass there won't be much change in temperatures as the boundary was already becoming diffuse. However, the frontal boundary was close enough on Wednesday afternoon to help generate some scattered convective activity. While not everyone was lucky enough to receive some much needed rainfall, many locations did at least receive a little as a pseudo-MCS feature moved from North to South across the area. Brief heavy downpours occurred here in the Lake Charles area Wednesday evening, and we will certainly take it. Temperatures have trended above normal since the weekend, and the trend has continued. Wednesday was certainly no exception with morning lows in the lower 60s and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. A predominantly Southerly flow continued ahead of the diffusing frontal boundary.
The persistent Southerly flow has resulted in a return of the unpleasant humidity that plagued us seemingly forever until the end of September. This is a complete contrast to the pattern we were firmly entrenched in for the first half of the month. A quiet regime will greet us to start the day Thursday as all convection from Wednesday has ceased, and the front has pretty much underwent frontlysis. Skies will generally be Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy to start the day, and in areas where it rained there could be some Patchy Fog first thing this morning. Expect temperatures to start in the low to mid 60s on average, this is above the seasonal average once again. Any fog that forms will quickly burn off as the sun comes up, and Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies will take over. Some drier air will work its way into the region today behind the decaying frontal boundary, and this will result in the removal of rain chances. The temperature scheme will generally remain unchanged with another day of above normal maximums. The humidity values may be a tad lower given the drier air taking over, but any thought of a nice, refreshing air mass building in right now is simply just a novel idea. The persistent onshore flow will continue.
A similar set up will favor more of the same weather as we head into Friday. A quiet and clear overnight will give way to a calm, clear start to the day on Friday. Some changes begin to unravel as the day unfolds Friday. The persistent onshore flow will strengthen as our next weather maker gets cranking. An upper level cut off low is present over the SW U.S., and is currently in transit. As this ULL moves Eastward in the zonal flow, it will energize the Jet Stream, and slowly carve out a trough in the nation's mid-section. As the ULL moves East closer to our vicinity, a surface low will develop along a cold front over the Great Plains, and this will in turn strengthen the onshore flow. This will keep high humidity values in place, however, the mid and upper levels will remain capped with ridging processes holding firm above 850 mb. This will keep rain chances at a bare minimum for the day on Friday. Partly Cloudy skies, above normal temperatures, and breezy conditions will be the story on Friday. Morning lows will run in the low to mid 60s yet again, while afternoon highs define persistence reaching the mid to upper 80s once again. Inland areas North of I-10 will experience warmer maximums given the strengthening low-fetch Southerly flow. This is week 8 of High School Football, and the games get bigger every week now as we head towards the state playoffs next month. You know you want to know the weather for your favorite team's game. Good news...while it will be warm and humid by October standards, it will remain dry. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Clear skies are expected Friday night. Temperatures will generally be in the 70s for each game no matter where you are in the state. It will be a little cooler across the Northern and Eastern half of the state, but overall not much change in temperatures are expected on Friday across the state as the onshore flow strengthens and overtakes the state.
The string of absolutely beautiful weekends looks to come to an end this weekend. That doesn't necessarily mean it's going to rain, however. The same synoptic set up will carry into the weekend and beyond. The cut off low will continue to creep nearly due Eastward, and the trough digging out ahead of it will remain active as well. This will continue to energize the Jet Stream, and carve out a cold front which will be bound for the Gulf Coast down the road. This is a slowly evolving pattern. The atmosphere should remain largely capped on Saturday despite the continuance of the long fetch Southerly flow. The humidity will continue to increase, but rain chances will also be next to nil. I suppose there could be an isolated shower or storm at some point during the afternoon, but it will essentially be convectively driven with the lifting mechanism still far removed from the forecast area. The temperatures will continue to modify as this onshore flow strengthens. Lows will reach the mid to upper 60s, while afternoon highs remain virtually unchanged for Saturday. We have to head out on the road to look at the football forecast for our favorite college teams this weekend. To say that this week's LSU game is big is an understatement. The Tigers travel to Auburn, AL to play Auburn. The battle of these two undefeated SEC West Tiger teams kickoffs on CBS at 2:30p.m. Saturday afternoon. It looks pleasant for the huge game between the nation's #5 and #6 team. Skies should be sunny with a temperature around 78 at kickoff and 80 at halftime, and 75 by game's end with comfortable humidity values. I know many LSU fans will be making the trip up to Auburn, AL. As for McNeese, they travel as well, but they stay in state, and are back in Southland Conference play. They travel to Hammond to battle the SE Louisiana Lions at 6p.m. Saturday. The temperature at kickoff from Strawberry Stadium should be around 80 or so, with temperatures falling to around 73 or so by game's end. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy early to Mostly Clear by game's end. Enjoy the games!
A better opportunity for much needed rainfall will be possible beginning Sunday. The lollygagging ULL will continues its Eastward progression. The strong Southerly flow out ahead of it will keep a deep moisture conduit surging over the area. Moisture levels in the mid and upper levels will begin to moisten up as well with the advancement of the upper level low. The ULL and approaching cold front will work in tandem to increase rain chances across the forecast area. Forecast the movement of an ULL is tricky in its own right, and this portion of the forecast is subject to change depending on the evolution of the aforementioned feature. At this juncture, it is necessary to introduce rain chances for Sunday, but let's not overreact just yet given the typical uncertainties with ULL. It is very possible that it could turn out to be a wet day on Sunday with rain chances in the likely category hinted at by several of the forecast models, but I am not ready to sway that way just yet. Certainly the proximity of the ULL, the long fetch Southerly flow, and daytime heating will be more than enough to at least produce some convection really at any time during the day, but more likely in the afternoon hours. I will place rain chances in the 30-40% range at this juncture with the disclaimer that they could go up or down in future forecasts depending on the behavior of the ULL. I wouldn't change any weekend plans you have just yet, but I do believe Saturday will be the better of the weekend days this go around. Temperatures will continue their above normal trend with mid to upper 60s for lows and mid 80s for highs yet again. Weather will not be an issue for the Saints game. They are back home this week for a noon game against the Cleveland Browns. The weather should be dry in New Orleans if you are heading to the game.
The best opportunity for much needed, drought denting, rainfall will come at the end of the forecast period in the Monday-Wednesday time frame. The ULL moves past the region Monday, and a weakening cold front sweeps in behind it. Ample amounts of moisture will produce a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area with a continuing onshore flow over the area. Rainfall totals up to an inch are possible, but it really is far too early to wax eloquent about specific rainfall amounts. The unseasonable late October warmth will continue. There will not be much cooling behind this Monday front and the ULL either. An unsettled pattern will remain in place for Tuesday and Wednesday as a much stronger trough comes down the pipe. The moisture conduit from the Gulf will continue after a brief drying period late Monday into Tuesday. There should be enough moisture and heating in place to generate some scattered activity on Tuesday. Temperatures will start to slowly cool off, but remain above normal for late October. Temperatures will more or less be a reflection of enhanced clouds and rain across the area. A much stronger front, perhaps the strongest of the season so far, appears to be hanging in the balance for Wednesday as we close out this forecast period. Models indicate there will be plenty of dynamics in place, for significant rain chances to be in the forecast. Rain chances into the likely category are indicated even at this juncture, and certainly some heavy rainfall will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur ahead of the frontal boundary, and this could be in the form of an MCS (squall line). It is too early to tell if there will be a severe weather threat at this time. October is not typically a month in which we see many severe weather events, but it can't be ruled out. There is plenty of time to watch this. Much cooler weather filters into the region just beyond this forecast period, and it is possible that highs will struggle to reach 70 as we head into Halloween weekend.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 63/87 63/86 64/85 0 0 0 0 0 10
LFT 62/88 63/87 63/84 0 0 0 0 0 10
BPT 64/87 65/87 65/85 0 0 0 0 0 10
AEX 57/84 58/86 61/86 0 0 0 0 0 10
POE 57/84 58/85 61/86 0 0 0 0 0 10
ARA 63/87 64/86 65/83 0 0 0 0 0 10
Today...Partly Cloudy. High 87. South wind 10 mph.
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 63. Light South wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. South wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 64. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon. High 85. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday 10/21/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear, Some Patchy Fog
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 4
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 7
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
10-21-10
Low: 63
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 5-10
Friday
10-22-10
Low: 63
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
Saturday
10-23-10
Low: 64
High: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Sunday
10-24-10
Low: 65
High: 85
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 13-18
Monday
10-25-10
High: 83
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
10-25-10
Low: 64
High: 82
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Wednesday
10-27-10
Low: 65
High: 80
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Tropical Update...
The tropics remain a topic of discussion as we head into the latter portion of October. The Western Caribbean continues to be the hotbox for tropical activity this time of year. That is certainly the case today. Tropical Depression 19 formed Wednesday night in the same region as its predecessors. The environmental conditions over the Western Caribbean appear favorable for further organization of T.D. 19 to continue today. T.D. 19 formed from a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms that led to cyclogensis over the last few days. The surface low gradually garnered tropical characteristics, and lo and behold has become T.D. 19. There is enough evidence from satellite imagery and Hurricane Hunters to support this upgrade as of 10p.m. Wednesday. This latest tropical entity in a very active season is currently located over the warm waters of the Caribbean on the Southern flank of a mid-level trough over the Eastern U.S. It is also on the Western side of a large Central Atlantic ridge. These features will impact the steering currents of T.D. 19 over the next few days.
A motion to the SE is expected today as the ridge builds Westward. The cyclone should retain a Southerly component into Friday as it completes a half-loop with a motion to the SE initially today, then to the South later tonight, and then to the SW into Friday. Beyond this time, T.D. 19 will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Richard, and begin to gain latitude as a W to WNW motion commences in response to the orientation of the high. The anti-cyclone will be strengthening to the North of the cyclone. This will bring what should be Richard towards Belize and Southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula late in the weekend. As the cyclone begins to move with a Westerly component it will accelerate as the Easterlies intensify. The tropical cyclone will cross over the aforementioned region on Monday, and lose its intensity as it does so. From this point, there are several different scenarios that could materialize with the future Richard. The evolution of some large scale synoptic features will dictate what will ultimately occur. Briefly, here are the possibilities...the interaction with land over Southern Mexico will cause Richard to spin down, and lose its identity. The tropical cyclone will emerge into the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf of Mexico) Tuesday and then continue into Mexico later next week. It could also emerge into the Gulf and be pulled Northward towards a landfall on the Gulf Coast next week ahead of a frontal boundary. It could also be shunted to the NE ahead of a trough, and pose a threat to Florida at some point in the latter half of next week. It all remains to be seen, and there is plenty of time to monitor the trends with T.D. 19. If this system is upgraded, it will become the season's 17th named storm, and this will make it the busiest season since the anomalous year of 2005 when 27 named storms formed. There are only 5 names left on the list before we complete the 2010 names.
Tropical Depression 19 Advisory
10p.m. Wednesday, October 20, 2010
...The Season's 19th Tropical Entity Forms...
Latitude: 17.5 N
Longitude: 81.1 W
This is about 125 miles S of Grand Cayman & 220 miles NE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the border of Nicaragua/Honduras.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph w/ higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected Thursday, but the depression should become a tropical storm by Friday.
Movement: E or 100 degrees @ 2 mph. A turn to the South is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn to the W on Friday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.71" or 1006 mb.
Elsewhere in tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:35a.m. 9:13p.m.
High: 1:51a.m. 3:18p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.38'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Low: 62
Normal Low: 57
Record Low: 32-1989
High: 87
Normal High: 79
Record High: 91-1927
Rainfall
Today: 0.18"
Month to Date: 1.77"
Normal Month to Date: 2.61"
Year to Date: 27.78"
Normal Year to Date: 46.65"
Record: 2.16"- 1949
Sensible Weather Observed:
Dense Fog
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 55
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 59
High: 85
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 53
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:19a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:36p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:49a.m.-7:06p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
New Moon- Saturday November 6
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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