Click below for today's edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block of the forecast.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The rain from Tuesday sure was great wasn't it? Of course, it was as advertised, and was not enough to alleviate the ongoing drought situation, but we'll take whatever we can get in this extremely dry pattern we have been locked into for most of the year it seems. Average rainfall amounts were an inch or less. Some of the rainfall was quite heavy at least briefly with plenty of low-level moisture in place that needed to be wrung out. There were some sporadic reports of severe weather, but all in all this was not a favorable set up for severe weather around these parts as the best dynamics were located further North of our vicinity. Most everyone picked up some rain in the early morning hours of Tuesday as a pre-frontal MCS moved through, but some additional scattered activity develop Tuesday afternoon right along the frontal boundary, and some locations picked up some additional much needed rainfall including here in Lake Charles. All rainfall has ended now as drier air begins to filter into the region with this latest cold front. The frontal boundary is working its way through the forecast area, and will be pushing well down into the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. The temporary bout of the warm, muggies are in the process of being replaced by a fresh round of fantastic-feeling fall air. Skies will continue to clear overnight, and by sunrise Wednesday morning temperatures will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the region with a Northerly breeze around 10 mph or so. This is fairly seasonal for this point in October.
The benign weather pattern becomes more established on Wednesday as the high pressure continues to drive into the area. Low humidity, October air will be in store. It will still be a bit warm during the afternoon, but with the lower humidity back in place low to mid 80s won't seem that bad at all. This will be very similar to what we've experienced in previous weeks. Clear and calm weather is on tap for Wednesday night with a beautiful first quarter moon shining. Expect similar readings for temperatures as we head into Thursday morning. A large, amplifying trough will be carved out across the Eastern 2/3 of the U.S. for the rest of this week. This favors a cooler and drier pattern for SW Louisiana and SE Texas. Not only will this synoptic pattern favor a continued offshore flow with clear days, cool mornings, and low humidity, pleasantly warm afternoons, it will favor the expectation of re-enforcing shots of cool air. One such shot will come during the day Thursday as a secondary cool front comes down the pipe out of the Rockies and Great Plains. You will hardly notice it though, as the super dry air will already be in place, and there will be absolutely no Gulf moisture for this boundary to work with. The Northerly winds might pick up just a bit as the front blows on by into the Gulf, but that will be about it as far as weather goes with this front. This front will enhance CAA across the area, and high temperatures will reflect that. Expect Thursday maximums to only be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This is at or just slightly below normal. This sets the stage for another round of really cool October weather as we head towards good ole Friday! Temperatures should radiate down into the mid to upper 40s for most by Friday morning, with some 50s for the coastline. The clear skies will continue, and winds will essentially go calm as the latest area of high pressure moves into Texas. The weather for any Thursday Night High School Football games will be absolutely perfect for football. Expect clear skies with a kickoff temperature around 68 or so, and then into the upper 50s to around 60 by game's end. Gumbo anyone?
Friday through the weekend looks perfect! A large area of high pressure will be anchored across the Gulf Coast states, and this will keep the greatness in place. The mornings will be cool with 40s likely for Friday morning as I previously stated. Some 40s will occur on Saturday morning as well, but it should ultimately be a few degrees warmer with an average low around 50 across the forecast area. Very similar temperatures are on tap for Sunday morning. Afternoon high on Friday will be close to 80, give or take a degree. Lower 80s are on tap for Saturday and Sunday. I would be surprised if we see a cloud at all through the weekend, and the humidity will be incredibly low once again. The large mid-latitude anti-cyclone will be the dominant weather feature. This will supply the area with absolutely great weather for any outdoor activities you may have planned. Somewhere in your plans might be the huge football game in Baton Rouge Saturday night! Kickoff for McNeese-LSU, the game many of us have waited for for a long time is at 6p.m. The weather looks fantastic! The temperature at kickoff should be around 75 or so, with readings dropping to the lower 60s by game's end. Backtrack a bit to Friday Night for Week 7 of High School Football, and more of the same is expected. Clear skies and perfect football weather with a kickoff temperature around 68 or so, and then into the lower 60s between 9-10p.m. as the games wrap up. Maybe you have plans with your family after church Sunday...do something outdoors! The Saints play on the road for the second straight week. They'll be down in Tampa Bay for a noon CDT contest with the Bucs. It looks sunny and pleasant with temperatures generally between 80 and 84 during the game, very similar to SW Louisiana. The offshore flow will continue throughout the weekend period, and the ongoing drought conditions will continue. The rain on Tuesday was certainly not enough to alleviate the drought, and all of the rain Tuesday will be a memory by the time we roll into the weekend.
The weather doesn't change all that much as we head for the end of this forecast period. The large area of high pressure will continue dominating the forecast on Monday, and only a slow air mass modification is anticipated as the Gulf of Mexico remains closed for business. Temperatures will remain near seasonal values for afternoon highs, and remain at or just below normal for morning lows. More significant chances could begin to take shape at the end of the forecast period on Tuesday. The controlling high pressure will more than likely begin to slip off to the East, and that in turn will open up the Gulf of Mexico, and allow for a return flow of low-level moisture to kick in across the forecast area. This will increase the humidity values, but since the muggies will be pushed a long way out into the Gulf by the cool surges this week, it will take awhile for it to feel yucky again! At the same time as the big high slides Eastward, another trough will be digging across the Northern U.S., and the attendant cold front will be in transit. The end of the forecast period should be dry at this point, with air mass modification continuing. Morning lows will be in the 55-60 range while afternoon highs top out in the same 80-85 range. Some clouds may return by day's end as the moisture levels increase, but all in all it will still be dry, and certainly no threat for rain. The next chance for rain should come just beyond this forecast period as the aforementioned front approaches. The jury is still out on how strong this system will be, but the idea of a more widespread rainfall is on the table. The coldest air of the season may follow that front in here for the end of next week.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 58/83 56/81 48/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 58/83 57/82 48/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 59/84 58/83 49/81 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 54/81 50/78 45/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 54/81 50/79 45/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 61/85 59/83 50/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cooler. Low 58. NNW wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 83. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 56. Light North wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 81. NNW wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cooler. Low 48. North wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 80. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday 10/13/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 8
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 12
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 14
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 9
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
10-13-10
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Thursday
10-14-10
Low: 56
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Friday
10-15-10
Low: 48
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Saturday
10-16-10
Low: 49
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Sunday
10-17-10
Low: 52
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
10-18-10
Low: 55
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Tuesday
10-19-10
Low: 58
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Tropical Update...
The season's 16th tropical cyclone became the season's 9th hurricane on Tuesday. Hurricane Paula is a formidable hurricane this morning, and is nearing its closest approach to the Cancun and Cozumel resort areas of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The relatively small hurricane certainly packs quite a punch with its 100 mph winds. The hurricane is likely near its peak intensity early this morning, as the favorable environs the storm has been in for the past 24 hours begin to fade away. Paula is currently being steered around the edge of a large mid-latitude anti-cyclone, and has turned basically due Northward paralleling the Yucatan Peninsula. It seems as though the Cozumel area will narrowly miss a direct hit from the tiny eye of Hurricane Paula. The eye should pass over the Yucatan Channel just to the East of Cancun and Cozumel this morning. Certainly, strong tropical force winds and some heavy rain will occur in the Yucatan Peninsula region through the day. As Paula continues to gain latitude today into tomorrow it will be moving into less favorable environs, and a weakening trend should commence within 24 hours. Increasing SW shear and interaction with the Caribbean landmasses will enhance the weakening process.
Paula will reach the more unfavorable are for development within a day or so, and at the same time it will be bumping into some strong Westerlies around the periphery of the large mid-latitude trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and this will force Paul to make a right hand turn to the NE and eventually E through the end of the week. As the cyclone undergoes its weakening process, it will turn towards Cuba. The forecast confidence is fairly good that Paula will take this right hand turn, but the question is how much of one. Models are in disagreement about how much latitude Paula will gain, and how much interaction the center will have with Cuba. Either way, I can say with complete certainty that there is absolutely no threat to the Gulf of Mexico from Paula. Paula is expected to remain at hurricane status until sometime on Thursday, and then become a tropical storm thereafter as it nears Cuba. On the current track laid out by the official National Hurricane Center foreccast, Paula will impact the Western half of Cuba as a tropical storm, and then decay over the island nation this weekend. Paula will produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides as a result of the very heavy rainfall. There is still some chance that Paula will have impacts on South Florida and the Florida Keys. Certainly it would be in a much weaker state than it currently is as the environment further North is even less conducive of tropical development. The future motion of Paula will dictate just how much of a threat exists to South Florida.
Hurricane Paula Advisory
10a.m. CDT Wednesday, October 13, 2010
...Paula Brushing By the Cancun-Cozumel Area This Morning...Nearing Peak Intensity...
Latitude: 20.4 N
Longitude: 86.0 W
This is 55 miles E of Cozumel, Mexico and about 120 miles SSW of the Western tip of Cuba.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph w/ higher gusts. Paula is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through today before a steady state weakening trend begins on Thursday. Paula is very small in size with hurricane force winds only extending outward to 15 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 60 miles from the center.
Movement: N or 360 degrees @ 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue this morning, but a turn to the NNE and a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur this afternoon. On this track Hurricane Paula should be over the Yucatan Channel by this afternoon, and near Western Cuba on Thursday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 28.97" or 981 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Punta Allen Northward to Cabo Catoche including Cozumel. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the Province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to San Felipe.
Elsewhere, in the tropics no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Thursday.
The next complete advisory on Hurricane Paula will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4a.m. CDT.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:38a.m. 12:37p.m.
High: 4:12a.m. 10:27p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.43'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Low: 61
Normal Low: 60
Record Low: 41-1906
High: 83
Normal High: 82
Record High: 91-1929
Rainfall
Today: 0.65"
Month to Date: 0.78"
Normal Month to Date: 1.68"
Year to Date: 26.79"
Normal Year to Date: 45.72"
Record: 1.60"- 1901
Sensible Weather Observed:
Rain
Thunderstorm
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 67
High: 84
Rain: 0.04"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 64
High: 88
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 47
High: 80
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:14a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 6:44p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:44a.m.-7:14p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
New Moon- Saturday November 6
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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