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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Say so long to this ghost of summer! A very nice cold front is sweeping through the forecast area early this morning. The bad news is that it is doing so without much in the way of rainfall activity. We have experienced some scattered activity over the last couple of days, but all of the dynamics necessary to produce a significant rain event have bypassed our area well to the North. We are on the Southern flank of the massive low pressure system that has been wreaking havoc across much of the nation this week. A few showers and/or thunderstorms are possible as the front slides through during the early morning hours, but it will clear our rapidly behind the boundary as high pressure takes control of our weather once again. The very warm and humid air mass of the past several days will be scoured out and pushed into the coastal waters, and it will be replaced with a refreshing offshore flow over land. Wednesday was yet another day of above normal temperatures with morning lows in the low to mid 70s, and highs reaching the mid to upper 80s yet again. Skies were generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy, and a few lucky locations picked up at least a brief shower or storm. The cold front is approaching the forecast area as of this writing, and will quickly move into and through the forecast area between midnight and 6a.m. It will remain warm and humid until then with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to the South of the boundary. Temperatures will begin to drop significantly behind the front as CAA takes over, and as we start the day on Thursday a rather large temperature scheme is expected. Temperatures will be as cool as the mid 50s in the coolest locations on the Northern fringe of the forecast area, and lower 70s near the coast where the front will push through last. Skies will transition from Mostly Cloudy to Mostly Clear by sunrise.
High pressure builds in from the lee side of the Rockies beginning Thursday, and the pressure gradient between the low ahead of the front, and the building high will result in a nice offshore breeze on the order of 15to 25 mph with some higher gusts through the afternoon. These gusty Northerly winds combined with the drying atmosphere and ongoing drought conditions will produce ripe conditions for wildfires. Therefore, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the entire forecast area for Thursday. Sky conditions will either start or become Sunny as the day goes on depending on where you are. Daytime heating will try to offset the ongoing CAA. It will be much cooler for afternoon maximums with highs teasing the 80 degree mark, give or take a degree or so. It will be a beautiful day with much lower humidity, and a noticeable change to the way it feels inside. It will feel more invigorating that's for sure! The weather looks superb Thursday evening for the events associated with McNeese homecoming. This includes the parade, pep rally, and fireworks. Clear skies are expected for everything, and temperatures will fall from the 70s Thursday evening into the 50s by the time the fireworks are over. It will be a beautiful late October night, and you might want a light jacket or sweater if you are heading out to the festivities. There are also a few High School Football games, and it looks great for those as well. The cool evening will give way to a chilly start to Friday morning. True gumbo weather is in order as low temperatures will average the low to mid 40s across this part of the world, with some upper 30s in the coldest locations. Winds will begin to subside as the high pressure builds closer to the region.
The weather gets even better for the Friday-Sunday time frame. Mother Nature's timing of this cold front couldn't have been better with respect to the weekend. Friday will be an outstanding October day with nothing but sunshine, and low humidity. After the cool start in the 40s, temperatures will rebound nicely to the low to mid 70s across the area. This is a few notches the norm for late October. An offshore flow will be maintained thanks to high pressure over the Red River Valley, but since the high will be in closer proximity winds will be much less than that of Thursday, thus red flag criteria should not be met. You might want a jacket or sweater on Friday night if you are heading out to a High School Football or whatever the case may be. This will qualify as true football weather with crystal clear skies, and a crisp feel to the air. It should give everything a little extra pep in the step. Temperatures will fall off quickly once the sun sets. Expect kickoff temperatures to be in the lower 60s with lower 50s by the end of the ball games. There are some huge, key match ups on the slate this Friday including Barbe @ LaGrange and St. Louis vs. Sam Houston.
High pressure continues to dominate for Halloweekend. CAA ceases Friday night into Saturday as winds go calm, and this will set the stage for the coolest night of the season so far. Lows will range from the mid 30s in the coldest locations such as Oakdale and DeRidder, to the upper 40s at the coast. Lower 40s look like a good call here along I-10 for Saturday morning. A slow air mass modification begins on Saturday, but it will be absolutely beautiful for McNeese homecoming. Nothing but sunshine is expected both Saturday and Sunday, and highs on Saturday should reach the mid 70s on average. High pressure overhead will result in very light winds. The humidity will remain quite low as well, so it will be great for all the homecoming festivities. The game against Nicholls State is Saturday night at 7, and perhaps a light jacket or sweater will be required then as well with another cool October night slated. It will easily drop into the 40s again by Sunday morning, but for the game itself it should be in the 60s at kickoff and 50s by game's end. LSU is idle this weekend, so no forecast is necessary for them. Then there's Halloween on Sunday...it will be a spooktacular day to end the month of October 2010. It will be a nice, cool morning for church, and pleasant in the afternoon for all the Halloween activities. Air mass modification will continue, but it will remain comfortable for the entire weekend. It will be great for Halloween evening, and all the little ghosts and goblins out there. Sunday's highs should reach near normal in the upper 70s, and for the evening hours it will generally be in the 60s. A light onshore flow will develop during the day Sunday as strong controlling high pressure system slides East of the forecast area. It will be enough to notice a difference initially, especially since the deep moisture will be flushed well out into the Gulf with the front in the short term.
Moisture levels increase in the lower levels as we start a new work week, and a new month on Monday. This will come of another sharp fall trough that we will be awaiting. The onshore flow strengthens as surface low pressure develops over the Great Plains, and the high continues its Eastward progression. The mid and upper levels will remain largely capped, so no mention of rain is given in the forecast. The next cold front will still be downstream, and without the presence of a trigger mechanism it will be hard to generate any rain despite the significant moisture influx in the lower levels. Temperatures will moderate in earnest as well. Expect lows to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, while afternoon highs reach back into the lower 80s under Partly Cloudy skies. The next cold front, a rather strong one, will move across the forecast area and into the coastal waters Monday night into early Tuesday. A slight chance of showers is reflected at this time mainly due to the forcing generated by the front itself. The best dynamics will once again bypass our forecast area, and the mid and upper levels will remain capped. The onshore flow will continue to pump moisture across the area, and keep things on the muggy side for Monday. The front pushes offshore Tuesday, and a renewed offshore flow will take place. The air mass will dry out once again, and this will set the stage for more fantastic fall weather. There are still timing discrepancies at this juncture, but the general consensus is that the front will cross in the early morning hours of Tuesday with just the aforementioned slight chance of rain. As the front moves through, any small chance of rain becomes none once again, and the Mostly Cloudy skies ahead of the front will transition back to Sunny skies during the day Tuesday. It should turn out to be nice weather for Election Day. Temperatures will do a reversal as well with lows cooling back to the mid to upper 50s while highs drop into the 70s once again. The coolest air will lag behind by about 24 hours or so, but it will arrive for the Tuesday night into Wednesday time frame. The air behind this next front stands to be the coolest so far this fall with lows well down into the 40s once again, and highs only in the mid to upper 60s across much of the area by the end of the forecast period. High pressure builds in and keeps the area high and dry once again. The drought will certainly continue into November.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 61/79 44/72 42/75 20 10 0 0 0 0
LFT 64/79 44/72 42/75 20 10 0 0 0 0
BPT 59/80 45/73 43/76 20 10 0 0 0 0
AEX 56/76 40/70 37/72 20 10 0 0 0 0
POE 56/77 40/70 37/73 20 10 0 0 0 0
ARA 66/80 45/73 44/75 20 10 0 0 0 0
*Red Flag Warning in effect Thursday.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 61. SSW wind 10-15 mph, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty after midnight.
Thursday...Becoming Sunny. Windy & Cooler. High 79. NNW wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 44. North wind 10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 73. North 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 42. Calm wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 75. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday 10/28/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Cooler
Temp: 61
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 16
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 19
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 22
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 20
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15
9p.m.
Weather: Clear, Cool
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 13
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
10-28-10
Low: 61
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-25
Friday
10-29-10
Low: 44
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Saturday
10-30-10
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Sunday
10-31-10
Halloween
Low: 50
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10
Monday
11-1-10
All Saint's Day
Low: 61
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
11-2-10
Election Day
Low: 56
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Wednesday
11-3-10
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Tropical Update...
There are no immediate threats in the tropics. Certainly nothing that will threaten the Gulf of Mexico anytime soon, and likely not at all. However, we do have three potential areas of development over the open waters of the Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a nearly stationary area of low pressure about 1,200 miles NW of the Cape Verde Islands is slowly getting better organized. Observations in this area indicate that winds are into gale force range. Upper level winds are only marginally favorable for development at this point, but it will only take a slight increase in organization for this system to be classified as a tropical storm. There is a 50% chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.
The second area of interest is a surface low that is forming within a deep layer trough about 550 miles NNE of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has been gradually increasing on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are in the process of becoming more conducive for tropical development to occur, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form sometime this week. It has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a classified system over the next couple of days is it continues a Westward motion around 15 mph.
Finally, there is a vigorous tropical wave located nearly 1,050 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. The environmental conditions are favorable for some slow development of this system over the next couple of days. There is a slight chance of development with this system over the next couple of days as it continues to move W or WNW at about 15 mph.
The next 3 names on the 2010 list are Shary, Tomas, and Virginie.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...North winds 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:51p.m.
High: 2:58a.m. 10:22p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.23'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Low: 77
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 34-1898
High: 87
Normal High: 77
Record High: 92-1927
Rainfall
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 2.24"
Normal Month to Date: 3.43"
Year to Date: 28.25"
Normal Year to Date: 47.47"
Record: 7.00"- 1900
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 50
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 44
High: 74
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 56
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:24a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:29p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:54a.m.-7:29p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
New Moon- Saturday November 6
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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