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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The nice, refreshing cool mornings continue. It is warmer this morning, but there is still a nice little chill in the air with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. We are far from a record low this morning, however. This was not the case on Thursday morning as Lake Charles tied a record of 45 degrees. After the cool start it was another fantastic day with cobalt blue skies and nary a cloud. Humidity values were off the charts once again down below 20% for most during the peak heating hours. The super dry air resulted in yet another day with a very large diurnal range. A diurnal range of 40 degrees or more was experienced at most locations across the area. This is rather unusual around here, but if it happens around here this is the usual time of year for it to occur. The temperature range was an incredible 43 degrees at Lake Charles on Thursday, as the afternoon high topped out at 88. The air mass is slowly beginning to modify, and as a result it will not be quite as cool to start the day this morning. The readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area will be some 5-10 degrees warmer than Thursday morning. Some upper 30s showed up on the map for the 3rd straight morning on Thursday. The usual colder locations such as Oakdale and Singer will wind up closer to 40, but it is warmer for most of us. It will be a clear and beautiful beginning to this Friday. The dry air will remain in tact, and another rapid warm up is expected. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s once again, and afternoon humidity values will drop well into the comfortable range once again. We may not see values below 20% this afternoon, but it will still be low by Louisiana standards. The wildfire danger will continue, and the statewide burn ban remains in place until further notice. No weather worries are expected tonight for the 6th week of High School Football. There is a plethora of huge games on the docket, and as you pick your favorite game don't worry about the weather. It will be clear around the state, and temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 70s at kickoff, before falling off into the low to mid 60s by game's end. For the second straight week it will be very comfortable.
The stage is set for another wonderful weekend weather wise. The spectacular string of Sunny weather will continue, and the air mass will continue to modify. The large ridge of high pressure over the Eastern half of the country will shift a bit to the East, but remain in general control of our weather. The end result will be clear and cool mornings, and warm and beautiful afternoons both Saturday and Sunday. Morning lows will modify from the 40s of recent days to the mid 50s for Saturday and upper 50s for Sunday. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s both days, and the humidity will only slowly increase. It will still feel comfortable even though the high temperatures will be back into the above normal category. The low temperatures will still be slightly below normal, but certainly more representative of the second week of October. It looks awesome for any outdoor plans you may have lined up, be it tailgating on Saturday, or a family BBQ after church on Sunday. Speaking of outdoor activities, there is always football! McNeese has a huge home game Saturday night at 7 against Stephen F. Austin. The Southland Conference match up against the Lumberjacks will feature great weather. Expect clear skies throughout, and a kickoff temperature around 73 or so. It will fall off to around 64 by the end of the game. LSU is on the road for an SEC tilt with the Florida Gators. The 6:30p.m. game is on ESPN. Expect clear skies in Gainesville, FL with comfortable temperatures as well. Very similar temperatures to that of Lake Charles are expected with lower to middle 70s at kickoff, and mid 60s by game's end. The Saints play at 3:05p.m. Sunday out in the Desert. The re-match from the 2009 playoffs against the Cardinals will feature Sunny and hot weather with temperatures around 90. This comes after some crazy weather across the Desert SW over the last couple of days. Tornadoes are rare in that part of the country, but lo and behold it happened on Thursday. The controlling high pressure will continue to shift a bit further Eastward, and its orientation by Sunday afternoon should allow for a light onshore flow to develop resulting in an increase in low-level moisture.
Some change in the synoptic set up is slated for the first of next week. A modest return of low-level moisture will take over in earnest Monday, and at the same time another cold front will be approaching from the NW as another trough deepens across the Eastern U.S. The onshore flow will stiffen as the pressure gradient tightens a bit in advance of the cold front. However, major dynamics will be lacking. There will be a short wave (disturbance) emanating from the advancing trough. The main thrust of this short wave will pass well North of our area, leaving us on the weak tail end of it. There could be enough moisture in the lower levels, and just enough of a trigger mechanism in place with the front by late in the day Monday to produce a few showers. I put the impetus on few. This certainly doesn't look like a situation that will favor a significant much needed rain event across the area. Any rain that does occur will be welcomed, but this will by no means bust the drought. There are still some timing issues this far removed from the expected arrival of the next cold, but the general consensus is sometime Monday night into Tuesday morning. A small chance of rain is inserted into the forecast for this time frame. Temperatures will continue there steady state modification ahead of the cold front Monday. Morning lows will be in the lower 60s while afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s on average. Clouds will increase throughout the day in response to the presence of more low-level moisture, and the advancing front. It appears as though this will be a rather weak front compared to its predecessor, and modified Pacific air will roll in here behind the boundary Tuesday. The chance of rain will fade away by Tuesday afternoon as drier air filters in once again, and a fresh round of offshore breezes takes over. Expect a similar temperature scheme for Tuesday.
A stronger front looks to be hanging in the balance by mid-week, but any dynamics to produce rainfall will be far removed from our part of the world. Some increase in cloud cover is possible Wednesday as the second front with origins in Canada makes it way towards the Gulf of Mexico. A dry forecast is maintained with generally Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies for this time frame. The somewhat cooler and drier air behind the first front will dominate the forecast even with the secondary front on the way. Expect pleasant weather to be back in play with lows back into the mid 50s while afternoon highs stay in the low to mid 80s...translation normal! A brief wind shift should occur ahead of the second front as is typically the case, but it will not be significant enough for any deep moisture to mount a comeback. The second and stronger front will push through the forecast area in its entirety by Thursday, and push well down into the deep water of the Gulf of Mexico, and this will usher in a fresh supply of cool, Canadian air. Wall to wall sunshine is to be expected with low humidity and somewhat breezy conditions in the wake of the front as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will cool off as well with a CAA pattern taking over. Morning lows will be in the low to mid 50s while afternoon highs drop below the 80 degree threshold once again, and could ultimately only top out in the mid 70s at the most depending on how strong the front winds up being. Either way, no rain is expected, and the overall dry forecast is maintained with no relief to the drought situation anticipated anytime soon. The coolest weather of the season is lurking just beyond this forecast period with lower 40s possible by the following weekend.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 48/88 53/89 56/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 49/88 52/89 56/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 52/89 55/88 58/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 44/88 50/89 53/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 44/88 50/89 53/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 51/88 54/89 57/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
Today...Sunny. High 88. WSW wind 5-10 mph.
Tonight...Clear. Low 53. Calm wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 89. WSW wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 56. Calm wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 87. South wind 5-10 mph.
Friday 10/8/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Cool
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 3
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 6
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 8
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
10-8-10
Low: 48
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10
Saturday
10-9-10
Low: 53
High: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10
Sunday
10-10-10
Low: 56
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 5-10
Monday
10-11-10
Low: 63
High: 85
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
10-12-10
Low: 60
High: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15
Wednesday
10-13-10
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Thursday
10-14-10
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Tropical Update...
The season's 15th named storm formed on Wednesday. Otto was initially dubbed a subtropical storm, meaning the cyclone didn't have all of the typical tropical characteristics. However, Otto transitioned on Thursday into a full-fledged tropical cyclone, and is now simply just Tropical Storm Otto. While the structure of Otto may have changed, the forecast thinking has not. Otto is no threat to land, and will continue to remain over open waters of the tropical Atlantic. Otto is being influenced by a little bit of Westerly wind shear, and the storm is very symmetrical. The center of circulation is on the Western flank of the deepest convection, likely as a result of the ongoing Westerly shear. Otto is in an environment that is favorable for development ast least in the short-term. Wind shear will remain light, and there is an area of high pressure over the Atlantic. These conditions should prove favorable for modest strengthening into the weekend. The current intensity is 60 mph, a fairly strong tropical storm. The idea of Otto becoming a minimal hurricane is certainly on the table, but is not reflected in the current forecast. Regardless of strength, the forecast track is not likely to change.
Otto is currently moving to the ENE as it is being picked up a large trough located across the Western Atlantic. The cyclone will by affected by faster steering currents over the weekend, and this will lead to an acceleration in forward speed. These faster steering currents will also create a less favorable environment for development, and instead initiate a weakening regime over the weekend. A transition to an extratropical or post-tropical entity should occur early next week as Otto continues to gain latitude over the Atlantic Ocean and as the cyclone moves into colder waters. Otto will be approaching the Azores as a large extratropical system next week. It is passing safely away from Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and all other island nations in the Atlantic Basin. Otto will ultimately just be a statistic when the dust settles on the 2010 season next month.
Tropical Storm Otto Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, October 7, 2010
...Otto No Threat Land Heading Out to Sea...
Latitude: 24.1 N
Longitude: 66.6 W
This is nearly 575 miles S of Bermuda.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph w/ higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible through today, and Otto could approach minimal hurricane strength late tonight or Saturday before weakening ensues over the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 90 miles from the center of circulation.
Movement: ENE or 70 degrees @ 9 mph. An increase in forward speed, and a movement in the same general direction is expected through the weekend.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.29" or 992 mb.
Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure situated over the SW Caribbean Sea remains nearly stationary. This area is typically one of the more favorable areas for development during the month of October. Conditions are currently favorable for development, and if this area of showers and thunderstorms continues to persist, then further development is possible over the next several days. Slow development is expected to occur.
No other tropical cyclone formation is expected through the weekend.
...Marine Forecast...
Today....North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Tonight...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday...West winds around 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Sunday...West winds around 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:33a.m. 10:23p.m.
High: 2:31a.m. 4:46p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.50'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Friday, October 7, 2010
Low: 45 (Tied Record Low)
Normal Low: 62
Record Low: 45-1964
High: 88
Normal High: 83
Record High: 95-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 1.04"
Year to Date: 26.01"
Normal Year to Date: 45.08"
Record: 2.40"- 1984
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 77
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 64
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 50
High: 66
Rain: 0.02"
Sunrise Friday: 7:10a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:50p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:40a.m.-7:20p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
New Moon- Saturday November 6
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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