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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Wednesday began a new streak of some great fall weather. This came in the wake of the front which brought the much needed rainfall on Tuesday. It was a bit cooler on Wednesday with morning lows in the mid to upper 50s. An offshore flow was established as a renewed area of high pressure began to build into the region. High temperatures reached near seasonable values with readings climbing into the low to mid 80s across the area. Tranquility is en vogue across the forecast area early on this Thursday morning as clear skies cover the entire state of Louisiana. The day will start on the seasonably cool side with temperatures running in the mid to upper 50s. A beautiful Thursday is on tap. A secondary cold front will be moving through the area rather quickly. It will approach the forecast area in the early morning hours, and move through with ease and be over the coastal waters likely before noon. There will be very little in the way of weather with it. The lack of an onshore flow ahead of the front is the main reason why it will pass through with little fanfare. The sky will remain clear, and only a slight increase in Northerly winds will be noted. Temperatures will be very close to the benchmark normal for this time of year, reaching the lower 80s for most locations. This front will make it a bit cooler than it was on Wednesday, but overall the weather will not change much. It will be cooler by several degrees by Friday morning with 40s for many locations. Expect the minimums to range from the lower 40s in the usual colder locations to the lower 50s around the coast.
The period of Friday-Sunday will feature absolutely perfect weather with a continued benign weather pattern in place. High pressure will strengthen its stronghold across the Gulf Coastal Plain. Expect wall to wall sunshine each day Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will be quite tolerable as well with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons. After the 40s on Friday morning, we will see maximums in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, essentially normal. It will be great football weather as well. Expect clear skies and temperatures around 70 at kickoff both Thursday and Friday night, while temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s by game's end. There's a bunch of great High School games on the docket. Saturday and Sunday will be a continuation of the shear fall perfection. Morning lows on Saturday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area, and it will be a few degrees warmer for Sunday morning generally with lower 50s across the area. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s Saturday and in the low to mid 80s Sunday. Humidity values will be quite low as well, a very similar air mass to what we experienced in the early days of the month. It will be perfect weather for anything outdoors. The Cal Cam Fair is going on until Sunday, but of course the big event this weekend is happening in Baton Rouge. McNeese and LSU battle each other for the first time in history in football. Many of us have been waiting for years for a game pitting the Cowboys and Tigers against each other in football. It is finally happening Saturday night at 6p.m. in Tiger Stadium. Clear skies are expected throughout the game, and very comfortable temperatures for football. A kickoff temperature around 78 or so is expected, with a temperature around 66 by game's end. Plan something outdoors with the family after church Sunday to take advantage of our third straight picture perfect weekend. Of course, don't forget about the Saints. They play at Noon local time against Tampa Bay in Tampa. The weather there will be very similar to what we will be having. Expect sunny skies and temperatures generally between 80-84 during the game. The benign weather will continue for Sunday night with temperatures down into the 50s once again as the air mass slowly modifies.
Some changes are on the plate for next week. Only a subtle change will begin on Monday as the controlling high pressure begins to shift far enough Eastward to allow a light return flow of Gulf moisture to ensue across the area. It will still be a very nice day on Monday with Mostly Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures yet again. Morning lows will be close to normal in the mid to upper 50s. Afternoon highs will be at or just above normal with lower 80s expected for most. It will be a bit cooler than Sunday it would appear due to the ensuing Southerly flow. The Southerly flow will mean an increase in low level moisture, and it will become more noticeable by Tuesday. At the same time, another cold front will be hurdling its way towards the Gulf Coast. Low level moisture will increase in earnest, and Partly Cloudy skies are projected for Tuesday. An isolated shower or two can't be ruled out late in the day as the front approaches, but the main thrust of the front will come at the end of the forecast period. The air mass will continue to warm up as the onshore flow intensifies. Morning lows will be back into the 60s, while highs remain in the lower 80s. The next chance of rain should come at the end of the forecast period with the aforementioned cold front. However, there is much deliberation at this point as to just exactly how much of a chance we will see. Models are flip-flopping on the idea of a significant rain event. At this time, I feel it is best to just broad brush the idea of a chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame. No severe weather is anticipated at this time, but trends will be monitored in the coming days to see how this system evolves. The front moves through quickly, and a fresh round of cool air filters in behind the front by late Wednesday. Wednesday temperatures will be mild in the morning with lows in the lower 60s, but cooler conditions take over in the afternoon especially if there's any rain and with expectant Cold Air Advection in the wake of the front. High temperatures may not reach above 75 degrees. The latter half of next week looks great once again. This next front at the end of the forecast period should usher in the coolest weather so far this season with the potential for lows down in the lower 40s, and highs only around 70 at best by the following weekend. We still are in desperate need of rain, and hopefully the chances will increase for the middle of next week.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 57/82 48/80 51/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 59/83 48/80 50/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 58/82 49/81 52/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 53/78 44/78 47/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 54/78 44/78 47/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 61/83 50/80 52/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
Today...Sunny. High 82. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 48. Light North wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 80. North wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 51. West wind 5 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 82. West wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday 10/14/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 4
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 12
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
10-14-10
Low: 57
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Friday
10-15-10
Low: 48
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Saturday
10-16-10
Low: 51
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
Sunday
10-17-10
Low: 53
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10
Monday
10-18-10
Low: 57
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Tuesday
10-19-10
Low: 61
High: 81
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
10-20-10
High: 75
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
...Tropical Update...
We are still tracking the season's 16th named storm. Hurricane Paula peaked in intensity during the day on Wednesday as she perused through the Yucatan Channel. Paula is on the downward spiral this morning, and is barely hanging as a hurricane as of this writing. By the time you read this, Paula will likely have been downgraded to a tropical storm. The tropical cyclone will definitely be downgraded sometime this morning. The weakening of Paula will continue as it makes a right hand turn towards Western Cuba. It is approaching Western Cuba at this time. It has bumped up against strong Westerlies which will in turn create a NE to nearly due Eastward motion today and Friday. Paula has been a small storm in stature really since its inception, and as wind shear increases in the Northern Caribbean, the size of Paula continues to decrease. Paula is also a very lopsided cyclone, and has fallen victim to the increasing amounts of wind shear.
The future interaction with land (Cuba) will aid and abet the weakening process, and the complete demise of Paula should occur over the weekend. Paula is currently an 80 mph hurricane (category 1), but once the next Hurricane Hunter plane arrives shortly it will likely find a weaker Paula, and I believe the system will be downgraded shortly. It should move inland over Western Cuba sometime today, and then remain over land. The mountainous terrain of Cuba will help tear the circulation of an already small storm apart. Paula will certainly leave an impact on Cuba with heavy rain, life-threatening flash floods, and mudslides the main impacts. The eventual trajectory of the storm will likely have some impact to South Florida. Certainly, some increase in wind with occasional tropical storm force gusts will be possible particularly in the Keys later today. Some of the outer rain bands will produce periods of squally weather over the Keys down into the Dry Tortugas. The impacts to Florida will not be very great at all, and Paula will certainly have more of an impact on Cuba. The circulation may slice right through the middle of Cuba, and parallel the island nation as it spins down into the weekend.
Hurricane Paula Advisory
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
...Paula Weakening & Approaching Western Cuba...
Latitude: 21.9 N
Longitude: 85.4 W
This is about 30 miles W of the Western tip of Cuba.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph w/ higher gusts. This makes Paula a category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A continued weakening trend is expected through Friday. Paula will become a tropical storm later this morning. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 20 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 50 miles from the center.
Movement: NE or 35 degrees @ 3 mph. A turn to the ENE and E is expected later today. On this track, Paula will be passing near or over the Western tip of Cuba later today.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.32" or 993 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio while a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban Provinces of Le Habana and Cuidad de la Habana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key Westward including Dry Tortugas.
Wind...Tropical storm force winds will reach Western Cuba later this morning with hurricane force winds possible in a small area of Western Cuba nearest the eye. Winds will increase over the Lower and Middle Florida Keys late today.
Rainfall...Paula will produce total rainfall accumulations of 3-6" with isolated amounts in excess of 10" over Western and Central Cuba. This will lead to life threatening flash floods and mudslides over the mountainous areas of Cuba.
Storm Surge...A storm surge of 2-4' above normal tides is expected along the immediate coast of Cuba in areas of onshore flow. This surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Friday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Friday Night...West winds around 5 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 1:37p.m.
High: 11:57p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.50'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Low: 57
Normal Low: 59
Record Low: 38-1917
High: 84
Normal High: 82
Record High: 94-1929
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.59"
Normal Month to Date: 1.80"
Year to Date: 27.60"
Normal Year to Date: 45.84"
Record: 2.46"- 2001
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 74
High: 86
Rain: 0.20"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 64
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 48
High: 82
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:14a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:43p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:44a.m.-7:13p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
New Moon- Saturday November 6
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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