Please click below for today's edition of the video blog, and be sure to scroll down for the text version of the forecast. Some sections at the end of the blog have been omitted due to the active weather currently ongoing. The blog will return to full length Wednesday morning.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The first rain of any kind is on the map this Monday night. This comes in advance of our latest cold front. This cold front is slowly making headway towards the area tonight. The front extends from a surface low pressure system in the Ozark Mountains into the Rio Grande Valley. A disturbance emanating out ahead of the associated digging trough is aiding and abetting the ongoing shower and thunderstorms activity. Unfortunately, this is not a situation in which widespread rainfall is going to occur, and amounts will vary greatly across the forecast area. Someone will likely receive nearly an inch of rain while others will come up with nothing. The NE-SW oriented cold front will slowly push into the forecast area early Tuesday morning. In the humid air mass that currently envelops the area, additional shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible until the front sweeps through Tuesday. An onshore flow will continue until frontal passage as well, but quickly be replaced by offshore winds once again. There are enough dynamics in place ahead of the front that one or two storms could reach severe limits with gusty winds and large hail the main threats. Activity will generally push from West to East, but slowly push South overall as the front pushes closer to the region. However, this is not a prime set up for severe weather, and October is not a climatologically favored month for severe weather around these parts. It will be a mild October night with temperatures warmer than they have been nearly all month. Expect lows generally in the mid to upper 60s across the area. Chances of rain will be pretty decent, but certainly not in the likely category for tonight into Tuesday morning. The front will work through the area Tuesday, pushing offshore during the afternoon. The dynamics currently in place to support convection will advance Eastward, and a more stable air mass will take its place during the day Tuesday, thus limiting rain chances. Drier air will begin to work into the area Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the front. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected through the day on Tuesday, and afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. This is a few degrees above normal as the average high is in the lower 80s here in the second week of October. The cooler air mass will lag behind the front just a bit, but it should start to feel refreshing in the overnight hours on Tuesday. If we make it to Tuesday afternoon without any rain, then we will have to wait until sometime next week it appears. We will take whatever we can get, but this will by no means be a drought buster.
The remainder of the forecast period beyond Tuesday will be dry. A seasonal start is slated for Wednesday morning with clear skies and temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 for most. High pressure will become the dominating weather feature once again. An amplifying trough will be setting up shop across the Eastern 2/3 of the United States for the mid week period, and this will put us in a favorable pattern for progressively cooler temperatures to filter into the region as some re-enforcement cold fronts head for the Gulf Coast. The offshore flow will signify the return of lower dew points as well, and expect humidity values to respond in tandem with readings down into the 30% range by Wednesday afternoon as temperatures reach just above normal levels into the mid 80s for most. The post-frontal air mass will be very similar to the previous air mass that resided over the region the first part of this month. As the high pressure builds in and strengthens over the region by mid-week, the weather will return to its former quietide. Cool and clear conditions are on tap to start the day Thursday with temperatures well down into the 50s across the region. High pressure will be positioned nearly overhead Thursday, and at the same time a secondary surge of cooler air will be in transit. Expect cloud free skies for Thursday, with high temperatures nearly normal for mid-October. Even better weather takes hold of the forecast are as we close out the work week. A stronger area of high pressure will become the driving force behind the weather. Expect a Fantastic Friday for the 3rd straight week with pristine blue skies, lower humidity (20-25%), and high temperatures teasing 80, maybe a degree or two on either side. It looks absolutely awesome for this week's array of High School Football games be it Thursday night or Friday night. It will cool off quickly once the sun sinks below the horizon, and I expect kickoff temperatures to be around 70 with temperatures close to 60 by game's end. If you get cool easy, you might want to have a light jacket as you head out to favorite game...take your pick, there's always some great High School games in our area! Some 40s will dot the landscape by Friday morning even down to the I-10 corridor.
Of course it's only Monday night, but it is certainly never too early to talk about the weekend. Can we make it three straight outstanding October weekends? The answer appears to be a resounding yes! A series of high pressures coming down the spine of the Rockies, and traversing the Great Plains will continue to move towards the Gulf Coast, as large scale troughiness continues to envelop the Eastern half of our great country. This will certainly keep the progressively cooler pattern mentioned earlier in place. I fully expect some 40s to show up once again for morning lows this weekend, especially Saturday. A slow modification of morning minimums may occur by Sunday, but it will still be pleasant and cool nonetheless. Expect highs to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday, and generally lower 80s for Sunday, bottom line...essentially normal for mid-October. Perhaps by now, you've heard there is some huge game on Saturday! This is game all of us here in SW Louisiana have waited for for years! LSU vs. McNeese in football for the first time ever! Last one to leave town, turn out the lights! The weather will once again be absolutely splendid for football, and I would be willing to be the football will be splendid too! It is likely a given that LSU will win this game, but hopefully McNeese can put a very respectable showing! Game time temperature as the Cowboys and Tigers take the field at 6p.m. in Tiger Stadium should be around 75, and it will be around 68 at the half, and 62 by game's end....very comfortable for over 95,000 people. Blue and gold or purple and gold...which will you choose? The sky is sure to be all blue with a bright gold sun as the game starts. The greatness continue for Sunday, which is good news for any outdoor activities after church. Expect a Sunny Sunday with high pressure reigning supreme once again. The Saints travel to Tampa Bay for a noon game, and an NFC South game with the resurgent Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The weather in Tampa Sunday afternoon looks very similar to what we will be experiencing in SW Louisiana...lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. It should be in the 80-84 range throughout the game.
The end of the forecast period will offer a continuance of the benign weather. The drought conditions will continue, and all moisture from the rain over the next 24 hours will certainly have evaporated by this time. SW Louisiana and SE Texas will continue to be under the influence of a large mid-latitude anti-cyclone. This will be a similar pattern to what we've experienced for the majority of this month. This is a typical October pattern in a La Nina year, and the complete opposite of last year when we were in an El Nino pattern, and it was very wet across the area. Temperatures will moderate just a smidge, and remain at or just below normal for morning lows, and at or just above normal for afternoon highs. The humidity values will remain quite comfortable. Depending on the evolution and orientation of high pressure systems at this time, a return flow of Gulf moisture could develop by Monday afternoon. The only other downside to this pattern is that the wildfire threat will remain in an elevated state. All outdoor burning is banned until further notice across the entire state of Louisiana. Please keep this in mind! Looking long range, models suggest a better chance and more significant storm system just beyond this forecast period. The timing issues and discrepancies at this point run rampant, so there's no point in being specific about any one solution at this juncture. It is just prudent to mention that the trend is for a more favorable set up to produce widespread, much needed rainfall across a very drought stricken forecast area in the 8-10 day period. The likelihood of such an occurrence will increase if we can get a deep flow of Gulf moisture over the area. Beyond that, models indicate the coldest weather so far this season may visit us sometime before Halloween weekend.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 64/86 59/84 55/82 40 40 0 0 0 0
LFT 64/86 60/84 56/82 40 40 0 0 0 0
BPT 65/87 61/84 55/82 40 40 0 0 0 0
AEX 61/85 55/81 51/78 40 30 0 0 0 0
POE 61/85 55/81 52/80 40 30 0 0 0 0
ARA 64/87 62/84 56/83 40 40 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming Partly Cloudy in the afternoon with rain chances ending by noon. High 86. SSW wind 10-15 mph, becoming NNW at 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Cooler. Low 59. NNW wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 84. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 55. Light North wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 82. NNW wind 10 mph.
Tuesday 10-12-10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Showers & Storms
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Showers
Temp: 72
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 11
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Slowly Clearing, Rain Ending
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 12
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 13
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 12
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 8
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
10-12-10
Low: 64
High: 86
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15
Wednesday
10-13-10
Low: 59
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Thursday
10-14-10
Low: 55
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Friday
10-15-10
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Friday
10-15-10
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 5-10
Saturday
10-16-10
Low: 48
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
10-17-10
Low: 51
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10
Monday
10-18-10
Low: 54
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
...Tropical Update...
The active hurricane season that is 2010 continues as we head towards mid October. We got rid of Otto over the weekend as he decayed over the cold waters of the North Atlantic, but we now have to discuss Paula. The season's 16th named tropical cyclone formed on Monday. It developed from a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms and an area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean. Paula has increased in intensity rather quickly. It was still just a strong tropical wave Monday morning, and as of this writing it is already on the verge of becoming a hurricane. Hurricane hunters have been investigating Paula off and on since its inception. Organization continues to improve, and I see no reason to believe that Paula won't reach hurricane status Tuesday morning. Paula is in a very favorable environment for development. The Western Caribbean Sea is typically the most favorable area for development during the month of October. Paula will remain over the Western Caribbean, and in the same favorable environment into mid-week, and further strengthening is expected. Paula is currently projected to become a category 2 hurricane within the next couple of days. Paula is currently moving in a NW direction, around the Western flank of a large anti-cyclone located over the Northern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico. This will take Paula on a course parallel to Central America, and steer it up towards Cancun and Cozumel as a hurricane later this week.
After affecting the resort areas of the Mexican coast, Paula will turn to the ENE towards Southern Cuba as the steering currents change. The cyclone will be bumping up against a deep trough that will be stretching into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter half of the week. In turn, this will cause a breakdown of the current controlling ridge. The steering currents may collapse, causing a significant reduction in forward speed by week's end. This will also ensue a much less suitable environment for the tropical cyclone, and weakening should commence on Thursday. Paula should max out around Wednesday, before the weakening trend begins, and it will be approaching Cuba and the Isle of Youth likely as a tropical storm and transitioning tropical entity by the end of the forecast period on Friday. The forecast confidence is maxed out as far as Paula not being a threat to the Gulf of Mexico, but there is a large error in the forecast models concerning the future track and intensity of Paula after its brush with the Yucatan Peninsula at mid week. Paula will absolutely be no threat to the Gulf of Mexico with cold fronts advancing well into the Gulf of Mexico waters throughout the week. The only portion of the United States that could be affected by Paula would be South Florida, but even this is not a given at this point.
Tropical Storm Paula Advisory
10p.m. CDT Monday, October 11, 2010
...Paula Strengthening in the Western Caribbean...On the Verge of Becoming a Hurricane...
Latitude: 16.8 N
Longitude: 84.6 W
This is about 295 miles SSE of Cozumel, Mexico or about 90 miles East of Isla Guanaja, Honduras.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 mph w/ higher gusts. Additional strengthening will occur on Tuesday, and Paula will become a category 1 hurricane sometime Tuesday morning. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 70 miles from the center.
Movement: NW or 315 degrees @ 10 mph. A turn to the NNW and then N is expected late Tuesday into early Wednesday. On this track, Paula will approach the Yucatan Peninsula near Cancun and Cozumel as a hurricane late Tuesday or Wednesday morning.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.35" or 994 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4a.m. CDT Tuesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tuesday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Tuesday Night...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Have a Great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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