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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We need some rain, but given the potency of the storm system that is traversing the country, perhaps it is a blessing that we don't have any dynamics present at this time. This 'bomb'' of a storm is centered over the Great Lakes, and is producing conditions similar to that of a hurricane. There has been all kinds of severe weather from the Great Lakes States into the Deep South today, but again this has bypassed our area. It has been on the breezy side with a stiff onshore flow persisting once again on Tuesday due to the pressure differential associated with the advancing bomb over the Great Lakes. There is so much energy to be displaced, and this is a remarkable storm for October. Windy and very humid conditions are all we have to show for in association with the huge system. Some spotty showers/storms occurred as expected as the stiff onshore flow fed energy into the Great Lakes low. These streamer showers were very short-lived, and didn't do much more than wet the ground in most places. For the most part, Tuesday was another Partly to Mostly Cloudy day with the unseasonable warmth in place. Morning lows were in the mid to upper 70s. This is nearly 20 degrees above the normal for late October. Afternoon highs were generally in the mid to upper 80s across the area. This rich tropical air mass results in a smaller diurnal range across the area. The cold front that will sweep the muggies out into the Gulf of Mexico is en route tonight. The front has temporarily come to a halt off to our North as it bumps into a flow that is essentially parallel to the flow. This will keep most of the forecast area in the warm, moist air mass into Wednesday. The pattern of persistence will continue as a result. A slight chance of a shower or storm is reflected in the official forecast for the overnight hours as the front hovers to our North. The pressure differential will keep the Southerly breezes going as well, but since we've lost daytime heating they will subside to an extent. The unseasonable warmth will hang around with temperatures by sunrise in the mid 70s on average.
A near repeat performance is on tap for Wednesday. The atmosphere will remain largely capped in the mid and upper levels despite the approach of the frontal boundary. The huge low to our North will steal all the dynamics, and with a 200 kt. Jet Stream flowing across that part of the world dynamics will certainly be null and void here. It is strictly air mass showers and any lift that the front can create that will have to depend on to get some much needed rainfall across the area. Our drought stricken area will not be in a favorable set up to receive a widespread rain event this time around. Rainfall amounts will generally be light, but there could be some brief heavy downpours across the area. Rain chances will remain on the low side. Temperatures will be above normal for one more day with upper 80s expected yet again. Some areas could top the 90 degree mark, especially where more sunshine occurs, and with an increased subsidence zone ahead of the front. The cold front will remain locked in place across the Northern portion of the forecast area to start the day, but it will get the extra boost it needs to advance through the remainder of the forecast area during the day as the big low shifts Eastward. The Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies persist along with the stiff Southerly flow. The cold front will finally advance through the forecast area as we head through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. This will bring about a little bit better chance for showers and storms as lifting and/or forcing increases with the progression of the front. It will remain windy, and it will gradually turn cooler as the front crosses the area. CAA and an offshore will take over. There will likely be a wide temperature spectrum across the area as we start the day on Thursday given the timing of the front. Areas to the North of I-10 should radiate down into the 50s, and areas near the coast will only hold in the lower 70s. Low to mid 60s should suffice for the I-10 corridor, and the threat for any rain will come to an end with the frontal passage between midnight and sunrise Thursday.
The rest of the work week through the weekend will feature a much more benign pattern. The only bad side of that is that it will continue to be dry, and the drought will persist. The front continues to push into the coastal waters during the day Thursday, and high pressure will build into the region from the Rockies. Full late October sunshine will try to offset the ongoing CAA. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler thanks to the air mass building in behind said front. Expect highs to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area. This is very close to the seasonal norm. The strong low pressure will continue its slow Eastward progression over the Great Lakes, and will continue to favor a cooler regime across our area. A secondary surge of cooler air will arrive late Thursday into Friday, and this will send low temperatures down into the 40s for most locations heading into Friday morning. Crystal clear skies will prevail Thursday night with high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Any Thursday night football games for area high schools look great. It will be on the chilly side as temperatures quickly fall from near 80 Thursday afternoon into the 60s by kickoff at 7p.m. Some 50s will show up before game's end. A light jacket or sweater may be necessary for you if you get cool easy late Thursday night/Friday morning as the temperatures dip into the 40s. Sounds like gumbo weather to me as the morning low at Lake Charles should come in somewhere in the mid 40s with clear skies. It looks good for all the McNeese Homecoming festivities Thursday evening...the parade, pep rally, and fireworks display.
The weekend is shaping up better and more spooktacular than ever now it appears. High pressure will be firmly in control by Friday, and winds will slacken and CAA will cease. Crystal clear skies are expected with tons of sunshine Friday through Sunday Halloween. It will be very pleasant Friday afternoon with low humidity and temperatures at or below seasonal norms in the mid 70s. Friday night looks great for all of the big High School Football games here in week 9 of the season. A new chapter in the Barbe-LaGrange rivalry will be written Friday night under perfect football weather. Friday night will be the coolest night so far this season, and there is a good chance you will want to have a jacket or sweater with you for the game as temperatures drop rapidly once the sun goes down. Temperatures near kickoff will be in the mid 60s, but it should easily be down in the 50s before the ball game's end. This will lead to eventual lows on Saturday morning in the lower 40s on average, but some mid to upper 30s will be quite common North of Hwy. 190. The stage will be set for a night of maximum radiational cooling on Friday night as winds decouple and go nearly calm. The greatness continues for Saturday. High pressure will be over Louisiana, and it will be a crisp, clear fall day with highs back into the mid to upper 70s with super low humidity values once again. This is absolutely perfect tailgating weather. Get out there and enjoy McNeese homecoming. Game time weather itself looks superb as well. Skies will be clear, and it will be on the cool side with temperatures in the 60s at kickoff and into the upper 50s to around 60 by game's end. Lows in the mid to upper 40s will transpire by Sunday morning as the air mass begins to moderate just slightly. Sunday is Halloween of course, and you simply couldn't put together a better forecast for Halloween. It appears as though it will be all treats and no tricks from Mother Nature this Halloween. A more significant air mass modification takes over during the day as the controlling high shifts to our East allowing a return flow to set up over the area. It will remain a pleasant day, however, since the deep, tropical moisture will have pushed way out into the Gulf. Expect Sunday highs to be closer to 80, so still quite pleasant. For all the Halloween activities Sunday evening, it looks great. It will be warmer and more humid as the South winds take effect, but it should be clear with temperatures generally in the 60s. No weather issues for the Saints game either, since they play the Steelers at home in the Dome. Dry and beautiful weather is expected for the driver over to and back home from the game, if you are lucky enough to be going.
Changes are in the offing for next week. The Southerly flow becomes more pronounced Monday as another in the continuing series of amplifying troughs develops to our NW over the Rockies. The large high will shift to the SE U.S., and a surface low will develop as the energy from the downstream trough increases. This will result in increasing WAA, and increasing surface winds across our part of the world. It will likely remain dry with the lack of a trigger mechanism in place. Temperatures will be above normal as we start the month of November. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s while afternoon highs reach the lower 80s once again. There is some model discrepancy with regards to possible rain chances. I will blend the wetter and drier solutions together for now until we get closer to this time frame, and a more definitive solution is discovered. I will leave Monday dry, but a noticeable increase in clouds and humidity is highlighted. The forecast period will end with at least some chance of rain as our next cold front works through the area. This looks to come on Election Day next Tuesday. It is far too early to determine the severity of this system, but the idea of a significant rain event and possible severe weather is on the table for the end of this period. This is not reflected at this juncture, but a chance of rain is shown to reflect the lifting of low level moisture in place ahead of the cold front. A mild temperature regime is expected with morning lows remaining in the lower 60s while afternoon highs top out near 80 give or take a degree. The front should quickly move through during the day Tuesday, and a fresh fall air mass follows just beyond this forecast period.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/88 61/80 44/73 20 20 30 0 0 0
LFT 75/87 62/81 44/74 20 20 30 0 0 0
BPT 74/87 60/80 45/73 20 20 30 0 0 0
AEX 64/88 55/77 40/70 20 20 20 0 0 0
POE 64/88 55/77 40/70 20 20 20 0 0 0
ARA 76/87 62/81 45/75 20 20 30 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Turning Cooler overnight with any threat of rain ending by sunrise. Low 61. SSW wind 15-20 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny, Cooler, & Breezy. High 80. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 44. North wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 73. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday 10/27/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 75
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 11
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 14
Noon
Partly Cloudy, A Scattered Storm or Two
Temp: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 21
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, A Few Showers & Storms Possible
Temp: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 22
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, A Few Showers & Storms Ahead of Cold Front
Temp: 77
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW 17
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
10-27-10
Low: 75
High: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-25
Thursday
10-28-10
Low: 61
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Friday
10-29-10
Low: 44
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Saturday
10-30-10
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
10-31-10
Halloween
Low: 47
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
11-1-10
All Saints Day
Low: 57
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
11-2-10
Low: 61
High: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Tropical Update...
Richard became a remnant low or post-tropical system on Tuesday over the SW Gulf of Mexico, and is no longer a classified tropical system. There are currently no active tropical systems. No tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday Night...South winds around 5 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:58a.m. 11:56p.m.
High: 2:44a.m. 9:04p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.01'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Low: 78
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 39-1909
High: 87
Normal High: 77
Record High: 92-1927
Rainfall
Today: 0.01"
Month to Date: 2.24"
Normal Month to Date: 3.31"
Year to Date: 28.25"
Normal Year to Date: 47.35"
Record: 5.31"- 2009
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 59
High: 75
Rain: 5.31"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 40
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 59
High: 81
Rain: 0.04"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:23a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 6:30p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:53a.m.-7:00p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
New Moon- Saturday November 6
First Quarter- Saturday November 13
Full Moon- Sunday November 21
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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