Click below for today's edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Shear perfection! It can't get any better than this can it? The only complaint over the last few days has been about the lack of offense at LSU, even though they are 5-0. Back to weather here though...Our string of fantastic fall days remained in tact Tuesday with wall to wall sunshine, pristine blue skies, and perfect temperatures. It was in the chilly category this morning with temperatures nearly area wide well down into the 40s. These readings in the 40s, were the coolest we've experienced in this part of the world since early April. It was mighty refreshing indeed. Yes, these morning lows are below normal, in fact, we flirted with record lows in many locations across the area. Officially, here in Lake Charles the low was 47 on Tuesday, and this was one degree off the record, but Lafayette and Alexandria each established new records for the date with 45 at Lafayette and a very chilly 37 at Alexandria. Afternoon highs climbed up into the mid to upper 70s. A very large diurnal range occurred across the forecast area once again, and this feat is very common in this pattern. Afternoon humidity values were almost as low as we ever see them around here with readings in the 15-20% range. However, even this fails in comparison to readings experienced over the weekend when the humidity bottomed out at an unbelievable 12% in Lake Charles. I am not sure I have ever seen it that low around here, and I am trying to find out what the record is for lowest humidity at LCH. I see no reason to deviate from the previous forecast that was laid out, the overall synoptic pattern has not changed yet. Another very cool night and gumbo weather is in store with readings down in the 40s on average once again. Conditions will once again be ideal for radiational cooling, thus it will be very similar to that of last night with some upper 30s possible again first thing Wednesday morning in the usual cool spots. Either way, it's gumbo weather all the way around, and it's nice to give the A/C a break, because this month it'll be the water bill that's high given the dry conditions. Absolutely no clouds are expected with crystal clear skies continuing as we roll into Wednesday. Some of you may want a light jacket or coat first thing in the morning if you get cool easy. It seems doubtful that any records will be broken tonight given the current forecast lows, but it will be close for Alexandria. The forecast low of 46 at Lake Charles is 2 degrees from the record of 44 which was set back in 1932. This is pretty chilly for sure with the normal lows still running generally in the lower 60s across the area.
The cool start to the day Wednesday will give way to another beautiful and pleasant afternoon. Don't even think about seeing a cloud once again on Wednesday or through the rest of the week for that matter. This air mass will gradually modify, and this process will begin Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be on the plus side of 80 with generally lower 80s expected for maximums across the area. Humidity values will once again be well down into the 20% range, with some values below 20% possible once again as dew points fall off into the 30s and 40s once again in the afternoon with the continued offshore flow and dominant high pressure. Surface winds will be on the light side generally around 10 mph. Another gumbo weather night is slated for Wednesday night with temperatures slightly warmer than the previous nights. Upper 40s to around 50 are to be expected on average, but the coolest locations will still be well down into the 40s. There will likely be a large temperature spread across the forecast area first thing in the morning for the next few days. That's also a staple of this weather pattern. The warmest locations will be near the coast as usual due to the marine influence with the warmer water temperatures in place. The warmer water temperatures help offset the offshore flow to a certain extent along the coast. The clear skies will prevail. The slow air mass modification continues as we head into the latter half of the week. Another sunny day is on tap for Thursday with temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s after the cool start. This will be yet another day of a very large diurnal range. The offshore flow will continue with a large anti-cyclone situated over the Gulf Coast.
The drought of 2010 will continue to intensify for Friday through the weekend as the shear greatness continues. The air mass modification will strengthen a bit more, but it will remain very nice in the Friday-Sunday period. Morning lows will return to the 50s for the entire area with generally mid 50s expected all three days. Afternoon highs will reach in the mid to upper 80s across the area. This is warm, but it will be pleasantly warm by our standards when you compare it to the awful heat wave over the summer. It is still hard to believe that just 2 weeks ago it was still summer across our area with highs well into the 90s. I don't think anyone is complaining now. These readings will be similar to those of last weekend, and it looks absolutely outstanding for all outdoor activities that you may have lined up. Of course, it's never too early to talk football, and if the weather will have any implications on all the games. This is the 6th week of High School Football, and whether your team is playing on Thursday Night or Friday night it won't make a difference weather wise. Clear skies are expected both nights with pleasant temperatures. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 75-78 range while it will be in the upper 60s or so by game's end. Good luck to all area teams. District play is here. There are some huge college games of interest on Saturday. McNeese plays at home this week against Stephen F. Austin, the team that many pick to win the Southland Conference this season. McNeese is out to avenge its only conference loss from a year ago. The weather will be winner with temperatures in the upper 70s at the 7p.m. kickoff with upper 60s by game's end. Hopefully we will see a Cowboy victory over the Lumberjacks. Perfect tailgating weather is expected for the afternoon hours with highs reaching the mid 80s. LSU is on the road after three straight home games. They will be playing SEC rival and perennial power, Florida. The 6:30p.m. kickoff with the Gators in Gainesville will feature similar weather. No clouds, just clear skies and pleasant October temperatures as the teams take the field. Maybe the Tigers offense will show up! The great weather continues for Sunday, so anything you have planned after church looks great. The Saints are on the road too. They play out in Arizona in a playoff rematch from last year. The 3:05p.m. game vs. the Cardinals with feature nice weather. Sunny skies and temperatures around 90. That's typical for Phoenix in October. Back home, our temperatures will be in the mid 80s on average at game time. Sunday night will continue the clear trend and the moderation will continue. Mid to upper 50s should prevail heading into Monday morning.
Some changes are advertised by models for the end of the forecast next week. This is not completely etched in stone, and persistence seems a more likely proposition in this pattern. The controlling high may shift a bit to the East early in the week, and that might allow for a return flow (onshore) to develop. This could open up the Gulf of Mexico, and allow for at least some increase in low-level moisture. The deep moisture has been removed far to the South, it will take a long time for sufficient moisture to return. A pleasant morning on Monday with lows in the mid to upper 50s will give way to lower to middle 80s during the afternoon hours with generally Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies expected as the humidity values increase just enough to allow water vapor values to increase as well just enough to support some cloud development for the first time in a while. Another cold front will be approaching at the same time, and should be making its journey through the forecast area at the end of the forecast period on Tuesday. There be may enough moisture in place for the front to work with on Tuesday, so it might conjure up a few showers. The idea of any rain at all with this front is still an iffy proposition, so at this point just adding a slight chance for the day 7 period will suffice. This doesn't appear to be a major rain event, which is what we need with the worsening drought across the entire region. There is no sign of a significant rain event anytime soon. Lake Charles is currently running a rainfall deficit approaching 19" for the year 2010. We only look to add to this in the coming days, and we could have a deficit over 20" before too long. This next front looks to be quite strong, and will likely bring in temperatures similar to what we are currently experiencing just beyond this forecast period.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 46/82 49/84 53/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 45/81 48/84 52/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 48/83 52/85 55/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 42/80 45/85 50/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 42/81 46/86 51/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 47/84 51/86 56/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wednesday...Sunny. High 82. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 49. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 84. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 53. Light West wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 86. West wind 10 mph.
Wednesday 10/6/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Cool
Temp: 46
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 3
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
10-6-10
Low: 46
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday
10-7-10
Low: 49
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
10-8-10
Low: 53
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 10
Saturday
10-9-10
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
Sunday
10-10-10
Low: 56
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
Monday
10-11-10
Low: 59
High: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 5-10
Tuesday
10-12-10
Low: 62
High: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15
...Tropical Update...
Further East of the aforementioned disturbed weather, there is another area of disturbed weather as a surface trough and an upper level low interact and work in tandem to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms over the open Atlantic. Conditions are not favorable for development in this area, and the upper level winds will remain unfavorable for development through the work week. This area is moving to the NW, and this heading of direction will continue for the next couple of days. It is currently located about 850 miles East of the Lesser Antilles. This system will likely dissipate by the end of the week given the very hostile environment in the region.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Thursday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday Night...West winds around 5 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:11a.m. 8:46p.m.
High: 1:58a.m. 2:35p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.57'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Low: 47
Normal Low: 63
Record Low: 46-1987
High: 79
Normal High: 84
Record High: 96-1909
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.76"
Year to Date: 26.01"
Normal Year to Date: 44.80"
Record: 1.94"- 1944
Sensible Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 69
High: 83
Rain: 0.28"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 76
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 71
High: 91
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:09a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 6:52p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:39a.m.-7:22p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Thursday October 7
Last Quarter- Thursday October 14
Full Moon- Saturday October 23
Last Quarter- Saturday October 30
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment