This blog entry is strictly to update the latest on Tropical Depression 1. I will post a complete blog with a forecast later today.
As expected, and as you read in my previous entry from Friday, Invest 93L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 1 on Friday afternoon. Recon data found enough evidence to support the upgrade. Tropical Depression 1 continues to get more organized over the warm waters of the Western Caribbean, and should become the first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Alex, later today. Another hurricane hunter will be investigating the system later this morning.
Here is the latest information as of 1a.m. CDT, Saturday, June 26, 2010:
Tropical Depression #1
Latitude: 16.5 N
Longitude: 84.5 W
This is about 1100 miles SSE of Lake Charles.
Winds: 35 mph w/ higher gusts.
T.D. 1 is forecast to continue a slow strengthening process this morning, and will likely become Tropical Storm Alex later today.
Movement: W @ 8 mph
A resumption of a WNW motion is expected later today, and the depression is also forecast to slow down a bit over the next few days. On the current track, T.D. 1 will reach the coast of the Western Caribbean over the Yucatan Peninsula or Belize late today or early Sunday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.74" or 1007 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the coast of the Western Caribbean. This includes the entire coastline of Belize, and the East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico including Cancun and Chetumal. The warning also includes the Honduras Islands of Roatan, Guanaja, and Utila.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coastline of mainland Honduras from Limon westward to the Guatemala border.
Heavy rainfall is expected across Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. Rainfall totals of 4-8" are expected in these areas with isolated amounts of 15" in mountainous areas. These rains will lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Discussion...Deep convection has continued to increase near the center of circulation tonight. However, intensity has been kept at 30 kt. (35 mph) up to this point, because the low-level center is displaced just NE of the deepest convection. There is a small area of shear over the storm at this time, but this will wane this morning. The general environment over T.D. 1 is one that favors further strengthening, and it is likely that this will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Alex later this morning. This should occur with the 4a.m. full update. The storm will continue a slow strengthening trend through the day, but this will be halted temporarily by late tonight or Sunday as the storm moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. This will of course impede development due to the interaction with land. Once it resumes a WNW motion later today, this motion should continue through the weekend. The steering currents will keep it on a WNW course around the southern edge of a blocking high to the NE of the storm. The storm should emerge into the warm waters of the Southern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday or early Monday, and from that point on the future track of T.D. 1 is not clear at this time. The consistency with models certainly suggests a Southern Gulf storm, but models flip flop on solutions.
The controlling ridge over the Gulf states this weekend will likely factor into determining the ultimate destination for T.D. 1. If the ridge holds firm next week, then a general WNW motion should continue and T.D. 1 will move towards South Texas or North Mexico. It will be in an environment favorable for strengthening, and should certainly re-strengthen to Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf. Steady strengthening is expected once the system is in the Gulf, and it is forecast to be a formidable tropical storm by the end of the forecast period with winds around 60 mph. If the ridge weakens, then the system will tend to be drawn Northward towards the Central or Western Gulf. This would increase to threat to our area. One other factor will have to be watched that could play a role in steering the storm. Some models insist on a rare summer cold front and rather strong trough digging down towards the Gulf coast by mid-week. This could also help to pull the storm further North, especially if the trough digs deeper than forecast, and if what will be Alex emerges further North into the Gulf than currently forecast. The advancing trough would pull soon to be Alex Northward and then to the NE, ultimately increasing the threat for our area and points to our East. At this time, most of the models suggest that T.D. 1 will not obtain enough of a gain in latitude to be affected by any weakness in the ridge or any nudge from the trough. The majority of the models keep T.D. 1 on a more WNW heading towards South Texas or North Mexico between Brownsville and Tampico. However, they also slow the storm down in the 4-5 day period, thus indicating a possible collapse of steering currents. This opens the door for any of the previously mentioned scenarios to play out. It is a wait and see situation at this juncture. It should be noted that the official forecast doesn't indicate a Gulf coast landfall through 5 days due to the expected reduction in forward speed. There is a lot of room for error beyond 3 days, thus it would be wise for everyone to stay tuned for further adjustments to the forecast this weekend and early next week. The cone of uncertainty at 5 days is very large extended from Mexico all the way to SW Louisiana. However, I wouldn't worry too much or panic at all this weekend...enjoy your weekend! It is by far too early to determine if SW Louisiana will be threatened by this system. Also, it is far too early to answer the question that weighs heavy on everyone's mind. How will the oil spill by effected by a tropical system? This is something that will only be answered as the storm enters the Gulf.
That's it for now, my next update will be later on this morning between 10 and 11a.m.
Have a great Saturday & God Bless!
-DM-
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