SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The entire forecast hinges on Alex. See the tropical discussion for all the complete details on Alex. Monday was a day of mixed results. It was some sun, some storms scenario. The storms were the typical thermally induced variety, however, they were enhanced by the very tropical air mass in place thanks to the fickle Alex. A plume of moisture out ahead of Alex rotating around the periphery of the storm led to additional development with storms rotating generally from SE to NW across the forecast area. The activity was scattered at random, and in this situation the activity is not limited to the daytime hours. In this situation, it could rain at any particular location at any times. Rain chances do diminish at night, but they are not reduced entirely like you would normally expect. Temperatures on Monday still managed to reach the mid 90s on average, but this will trend downward for the rest of the week thanks to Alex. Overnight lows will be very warm and will struggle to fall below the 80 degree mark. It is very sticky outside, and condensation will form on just about anything. The nighttime hours should be quiet away from any brief squall.
Tuesday-Friday...The entire forecast hinges on Alex. This forecast will reflect the official forecast track laid out by the NHC for Alex. Again, please refer to the tropical weather discussion which follows this one. The storm will continue trudging through the Gulf waters Tuesday, and lumber its way towards the lower Texas coast or the coast of Northern Mexico. As it does so, a copious amount of tropical moisture will continue to be pumped into the region. The rain bands on the outer periphery of Alex will continue to rotate through the area. As the storm moves closer to its landfall point to our SW, they will gradually become more numerous in nature. The possibility of widespread showers and thunderstorms and occasional squalls are expected by mid week. Tuesday will likely similar to Monday with a some sun, some storms scenario. The chances for rain will jump into the likely category beginning with an influx of moisture ready to surge Westward around the cyclonic rotation. It will be a bit breezy during the rain bands with winds over 25-30 mph at times. The winds will continue to get a bit stronger by Wednesday and Thursday as the storm continues to intensify and approach the coast. A long fetch of ESE winds will develop around the circulation, and this will lead to possible coastal flooding with an expected 2-3' rise in astronomical tides. This will cause tidal backup into the lower end of area rivers as well. This increase in tides along with the threat for some heavy rain will be the main effects on our area from Alex. Winds and seas will be much higher offshore away from the coast. The anticipated coastal flooding has prompted the National Weather Service in Lake Charles to issue a Coastal Flood Watch which is in effect through Thursday. As I said a moment ago, rain chances will rise into the likely category on Tuesday, and increase further Wednesday and Thursday. We do need rainfall across the area, and with the ongoing drought conditions no other flooding threat should be realized. Some urban flooding may arise in areas with receive very heavy downpours in a short-term, but other than that no issues with freshwater flooding. Rainfall totals through Friday should be in the 2-5" range, with higher amounts in isolated locations exceeding 6". Rain chances will remain high and in the likely category through Friday, but will peak on Wednesday and Thursday as Alex makes landfall. It will take this tropical moisture a while to vacate the area, and the threat for higher rain chances will continue while Alex spins down over land. Temperature trends the next few days will respond as well. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s on Tuesday, and will be hard pressed to exceed 90 Wednesday and Thursday with the ample amount of rainfall in the area. Morning lows will remain very warm in the mid to upper 70s to around 80. As conditions begin to improve Friday, high temperatures will work their way back up to near normal in the lower 90s for most of the area. This is all assuming that Alex takes the current projected track. This forecast could get worse if Alex deviates from the current prognostication. Alex is such a large storm that, as long as its to our W and SW we will have some effects from it.
This weekend is 4th of July, and many many many of you have plans as we celebrate our Nation's birthday, and our Independence. This portion of the forecast is one that could still technically hinge on the progression of Alex, but for now we will assume that Alex will be long gone by that time. However, the deeper tropical moisture currently in place will linger. Therefore, while a return to a some sun, some storms scenario seems logical, rain chances will remain above normal at least for Saturday. As the deeper tropical moisture is slowly displaced with a dying Alex over Texas or Mexico, rain chances will be tempered downward back to near normal levels by Sunday, Independence Day, and this will carry over to the end of the forecast period on Monday. Monday is a holiday for many people as a lot of places will observe Independence Day on the 5th, since the 4th falls on a Sunday this year. At this point in time, there is no reason to cancel any 4th of July plans you may have, just understand that you will likely have to dodge some shower and thunderstorm activity from time to time. About an average chance for a shower or thunderstorm is currently depicted for the Sunday-Monday time frame, and this stands at 30% for the time being. Chances on Saturday will be a bit higher at 40%. Again, this is all subject to change based on how Alex behaves. Temperatures during the Saturday-Monday time frame will return to near normal to above normal levels with low to mid 90s expected for maximums and minimums remaining in the mid to upper 70s. In other words, we will be back to the standard summer regime by the end of the forecast period. In the extended, the first full week of July should be very reminiscent of Julys in the past. A typical summer pattern is anticipated barring any additional tropical development during this time. Temperatures will be at or above normal, and rain chances will be influenced by day to day synoptic features that models don't initialize this far out. That's all for the discussion for now, stay tuned for all the latest on Alex.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 77/92 78/88 77/88 30 60 40 70 60 80
LFT 77/92 77/88 78/89 30 60 40 70 60 70
BPT 78/93 77/88 78/87 30 60 40 70 60 80
AEX 75/94 75/89 76/88 30 50 30 70 50 60
POE 75/94 75/88 75/89 30 50 30 70 50 60
ARA 78/91 77/87 78/88 30 60 50 70 40 70
*Coastal Flood Watch through Thursday.*
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of tropical showers and thunderstorms. Low 77. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with tropical showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 92. ESE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 78. ESE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Cloudy & Breezy with numerous showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 88. ESE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy & Breezy with scattered showers & thunderstorms. Low 77. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy & Breezy with occasional squalls. Numerous showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 88. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
6-29-10
Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 60%
Wind: ESE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
Wednesday
6-30-10
Low: 78
High: 88
Rain: 70%
Wind: ESE 15-25
H.I:: 95-100
Thursday
7-1-10
Low: 77
High: 88
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 20-25
H.I.: 95-100
Friday
7-2-10
Low: 77
High: 91
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
Saturday
7-3-10
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 101-106
Sunday
7-4-10
Independence Day...Happy Birthday America
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
Monday
7-5-10
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 101-106
...Tropical Update...
So as to avoid the blog from being to cluttered for your viewing, the tropical update, which of course focuses solely on Alex, is a separate entry until further notice. The latest on Alex is posted above this blog. Besides, Alex there is nothing else to discuss in the tropics at this juncture.
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect.*
Tonight...East winds around 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 3 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...East winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...East winds around 20 knots. Seas building 6 to 7 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...East winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday Night...East winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Good night & God bless! Scroll up for the latest on Alex!
-DM-
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