*Audio blogs resume tomorrow...*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I could channel Glenn Frey or maybe Buster Poindexter today because "The Heat is On" and it's simply just "Hot Hot Hot". Temperatures easily reached the mid 90s Sunday afternoon, and there was very little in the way of relief in the form of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. A very few select locations were the recipient of one of Mother Nature's natural air conditioners. The rest of us were left to bask in the hot June sun with the mid 90s surface temperatures, and apparent temperatures (heat index values) in the 102-107 range. This is above normal for mid June, and this trend will continue.
The mid and upper level ridging currently controlling the weather will only intensify today. This will add extra atmospheric suppression, and keep the chances for any afternoon relief at a bare minimum. The chances are too slight to mention in the official forecast with only about a 10% chance at best. Temperatures on Monday will be well above the norm for mid June, but not in the record breaking category. Expect a maximum to range from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to near 100 north of Hwy. 190. The coast of course will be the coolest of all locations, that is if you want to call lower 90s cool. The heat index may remain below 105 in most locations today as the increased subsidence results in somewhat drier air reaching the surface to lower dew points just enough. There won't be much in the way of a breeze either to cool it off at all. The lack of breeze is as a result of the strengthening ridge locked in place across the Gulf South. The benign weather continues for the Monday night period, although lows might be a bit cooler due to the lower dew points.
Rain chances increase for mid-week as the ridging in the mid and upper levels breaks down over our area, and shifts back to the West where it belongs. The chance of afternoon convection will be enhanced by the presence of an upper level inverted trough. This will act as a focus mechanism for shower and thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. The persistent onshore flow will create the usual daily sea breeze as well to also aid in development of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some heavy rain will be possible with over an inch possible in areas that receive a direct hit. Nearly half of the area should receive some rain on Wednesday, so that's some good news. That being said, no organized widespread rain event is expected, and many areas will still be left basking in the mid June sun. Because the increased moisture, temperatures will be cooler as well, but of course it will still be hot. Expect temperatures to be more representative of normal for mid June with highs closer to the 90 degree threshold. All convection wanes after sunset. Thursday will offer a repeat performance as the upper ridge resides to our West, and the inverted trough slides slowly Eastward through the Gulf. The convection will be only on a scattered basis, and overall coverage should be a bit less than that of Wednesday. Rainfall totals could again reach or exceed 1" in areas that sustain a direct hit. The Partly Cloudy conditions will prevail in rain-free areas, and temperatures will look like they ought to look for mid June once again.
Friday through next Sunday, Father's Day looks to trend back towards drier and hotter conditions as the temporary buckle in the ridge dissipates, and the ridge re-builds over the area. This will return our weather to similar conditions to what we have now. The ridge will renew atmospheric suppression across the area, and thus rain chances will respond by decreasing. A larger amount of sunshine will translate to hotter temperatures each day with readings approaching the upper 90s over the weekend. There will still be some slim hope for a cooling cloudburst on Friday afternoon as we will transition from a more moist regime in the mid and upper levels to the ridging processes and the associated drier air. However, there will be very little chance of any relief over the weekend, and no rain chances will be highlighted in the official forecast at this time. Heat indices will approach the danger zone once again with readings around 105 F certainly possible as a result of the higher temperatures. Looking long range, the typical summer status quo will rule the forecast for the rest of the month.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/96 73/95 73/92 0 10 0 10 0 40
LFT 75/96 73/94 73/92 0 10 0 10 0 40
BPT 77/97 73/96 74/91 0 10 0 20 0 40
AEX 74/98 72/98 72/94 0 10 0 10 0 30
POE 74/97 73/96 72/93 0 10 0 10 0 30
ARA 77/95 74/93 73/91 0 10 0 10 0 40
Today...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. Hot. High 96. SSE wind 10 mph. Heat index 102-107 in the afternoon.
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 73. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. Hot. High 95. SSE wind 10 mph. Heat index 101-106 in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 73. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday 6/14/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 6
H.I.: 87
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
H.I.: 98
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy & Hot
Temp: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 104
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 9
H.I.: 100
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
H.I.: 88
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
6-14-10
Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 102-107
Tuesday
6-15-10
Low: 73
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 101-106
Wednesday
6-16-10
Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Thursday
6-17-10
Low: 74
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
Friday
6-18-10
Low: 75
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I: 98-103
Saturday
6-19-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 103-108
Sunday
6-20-10
Father's Day
Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 105-110
...Tropical Update...
Climatologically speaking, It is a bit early in the season to be talking about activity in the Eastern Atlantic, but nevertheless, we have a flare up to discuss in this region. A large area of low pressure (labeled Invest 92L) is situated about 1,025 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands, approaching the Lesser Antilles. Conditions are currently conducive for further development to occur over the next 24 hours. The disturbance is moving between WNW and NW around 15 mph. There remains a greater than 50% chance of further development with this system, and it is possible that it will become a tropical depression on Monday. There is plenty of time to monitor this system, and there is currently the presence of wind shear over much of the Caribbean, and also an advancing trough to the NW of the storm. These factors will likely lead to some repercussions on this system.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Tuesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:13a.m. 11:12p.m.
High: 6:47a.m. 2:48p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.17'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Low: 78
Normal Low: 72
Record Low: 56-1913
High: 94
Normal High: 89
Record High: 102-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.58"
Normal Month to Date: 2.73"
Year to Date: 13.38"
Normal Year to Date: 24.77"
Record: 4.05"-1966
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 89
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Monday: 6:11a.m.
Sunset Monday: 8:15p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Saturday June 19
Full Moon- Saturday May 26
Last Quarter- Sunday July 4 (Independence Day)
New Moon- Sunday July 11
Have a Great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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