SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Monday's forecast was right on track. It was crazy hot, and only a few select locations mainly near Lafayette received any relief at all. Temperatures easily reached the mid 90s for most, while heat indices hovered on either side of 105. In other words, it was so hot Monday. We need rain, and I'm sure the folks in Oklahoma would gladly share some of their rainfall with us. Several locations across the Sooner State have seen nearly 12" of rain just today. The cleanup and search and rescue mission controls in Arkansas as well in the wake of this past weekend's flash flood. Our prayers and thoughts continue to be with all the victims. Back to our weather, all is quiet tonight with just clear skies and high humidity. Lows will be very similar to last night into the mid to upper 70s. A light onshore flow will persist into Tuesday.
Tuesday will be very similar to Monday with more very hot weather on tap. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny skies are expected, and the dominating upper level ridge will continue to suppress any vertical growth of the daily crop of cumulus clouds. Therefore, very little in the way of any afternoon convection is anticipated on Tuesday. An isolated cell or two will be possible mainly just because it will be so hot. Temperatures will once again reach the mid 90s with some upper 90s in far inland locales. Heat indices will be rather atrocious as well with readings topping 105 at times. Adding to the subsident air will be a feature will become our next weather maker. There is a clearly visible upper level low spinning off the SE coast of Louisiana. This Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT low) will continue to slowly retrograde (push Westward) on Tuesday. The forecast area will be on the dry side of this system, thus the reason for limited amounts of moisture in the mid and upper levels. The eastern extremity of the forecast area will stand a bit better possibility to see some scattered afternoon convective as they will be in closer proximity to the retrograding TUTT low, however, even these areas will only have rain chances at 20% at best. This should be confined to the area S and E of New Iberia (ARA). Any convective activity that does manage to bust through will quickly decay with the loss of daytime heating, and tranquil weather will prevail for Tuesday night with lows very similar to tonight.
The mid-week period will offer our best chance of shower and thunderstorm activity this forecast period. A typical summer day is expected with generally Partly Cloudy skies expected during the morning. The prevailing south wind will create a sea breeze effect in the afternoon, and this will combine with daytime heating and the advancing TUTT low to generate shower and thunderstorm activity. Models aren't overly aggressive with areal coverage at this time, and indicate that the TUTT low will be in a weakening phase as it makes its closest approach to our area. Therefore, I believe generally a bit less than half of the forecast area will see some much needed rainfall on Wednesday. The increased clouds and rain chances will result in somewhat cooler temperatures. Expect highs to be in the lower 90s, much closer to seasonable for this time of year. Areas that receive a direct hit from a shower or storm could receive an inch or so of rain, while your neighbor just down the road may not get a drop. It's just a luck of the draw situation. Here along the 30th parallel, most of our weather moves from W to E over the course of the year, but with the Westward advancing TUTT low, most of the activity that develops on Wednesday will move from E to W (opposite of what you would normally expect). I have mentioned a TUTT low many times over the course of this blog, but what is a TUTT low? It is basically, an upper level low which originated in the tropics. It is not unlike an ULL that formed over land, it's just one that formed over water. Any rain that falls on Wednesday will certainly not be enough to completely alleviate the drought situation, but we'll take what we can get at this juncture. All activity will come to an end by sunset or shortly thereafter in response to the loss of the trigger mechanism. The weakness in the controlling ridge will allow for another chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours Thursday, however, the chances will be a little bit less as the TUTT low shears out and pulls away to the SW of the area. In translation, this generally means a typical summer day is in store for Thursday. I will place rain chances at the average for this time of year. After a morning start in the typical mid 70s, afternoon highs will easily reach the 90s, but some locations will remain in the lower 90s, and others reach the mid 90s. The hottest locations may be over the Eastern and Northern half of the forecast area furthest away from the aforementioned Gulf feature. Again, expect the overnight hours to be quiet with the loss of daytime heating.
The end of the forecast period Friday-Monday will feature weather that we are all too familiar with. This period really doesn't leave me with anything new to say that I haven't already said before. The controlling mid and upper level ridge re-builds over the area in the wake of the weak ULL in the Gulf. This will lead to increased subsidence during peak heating hours, and offer very little opportunity for any shower and thunderstorm activity to occur. The pattern will favor the possibility of some sea breeze activity on Friday as we make the transition, but the chance is very slight as it stands right now. Rain chances are too negligible to mention for Saturday and Sunday at this time, and the ridge should be firmly entrenched across our portion of the Gulf at this time. The pattern could do a reversal early next week with models indicating some sign of weakening in the ridge again by Monday. I am totally ready to buy into that idea, but it could be a set up similar to Friday with a sea breeze established during the late morning/early afternoon hours to generate a few showers and thunderstorms. The typical day to day atmospheric variations which are commonplace this time of year will continue for the foreseeable future. The temperature scheme will reflect the drier air as you would imagine. Friday maximums should range from the low to mid 90s while Saturday and Sunday maxes will more likely be in the mid to possibly upper 90s. For the end of the forecast period on Monday, temperatures will trend downward once again with the possibility of a more active sea breeze. Low temperatures each day will be very similar with generally mid 70s expected across our part of the world. Any plans that you may have arranged for Father's Day weekend should be fine, just remember to use extreme caution when out and about because of the heat. Further on down the road next week, a continuance is offered with the usual day to day differences dictating how much of a rain chance we will see each day. The first official day of summer will be rather uneventful here, and it will most definitely feel like summer. Come on October!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 77/96 76/91 75/92 0 10 0 40 0 30
LFT 76/95 76/91 75/93 0 20 0 40 0 30
BPT 77/97 76/93 76/92 0 10 0 30 0 30
AEX 72/99 73/95 74/96 0 10 0 30 0 30
POE 72/98 73/95 74/95 0 10 0 30 0 30
Today...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. Hot. High 96. SE wind 10 mph. Heat index values 102-107 in the afternoon.
Tonight...Clear. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 6/15/10 Day Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7
H.I.: 91
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 100
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 106
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7
H.I.: 98
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
6-15-10
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 10%
H.I.: 102-107
Wednesday
6-16-10
High: 91
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
Thursday
6-17-10
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Friday
6-18-10
Low: 75
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 101-106
Saturday
6-19-20
Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 102-107
Sunday
6-20-10
Father's Day
Low: 77
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
Monday
6-21-10
Summer Solstice
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 102-107
...Tropical Update...
The tropical disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic that I mentioned yesterday continues to be monitored today. It flared up quite nicely early Monday, but as of early this morning it is struggling to get its act together. I mentioned that the environment ahead of the system was a highly sheared environment, and this tropical wave is certainly feeling the affects of the shear. It is currently located about 1,150 miles to the East of the Lesser Antilles. The organization and structure of the system has improved overnight. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for further development at this time. It is still conceivably possible that this system could obtain tropical depression status sometime later today. The wind shear out ahead of the system will continue to strengthen through mid-week, and it is likely that the chances for development will decrease further by Wednesday. There is a medium chance (50%) of this system developing further over the next 24 hours. The system is moving WNW to NW around 15 mph, and this motion will continue through Wednesday.
Elsewhere in the tropics, all is quiet and no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Today... South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:03p.m.
High: 7:26a.m. 3:48p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.21'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, June 14, 2010
Low: 77
Normal Low: 72
Record Low: 56-1913
High: 95
Normal High: 89
Record High: 101-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.58"
Normal Month to Date: 2.94"
Year to Date: 13.38"
Normal Year to Date: 24.98"
Record: 3.82 "-1977
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 74
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 74
High: 89
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:11a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 8:16p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Saturday June 19
Full Moon- Saturday May 26
Last Quarter- Sunday July 4 (Independence Day)
New Moon- Sunday July 11
Have a Great Tuesday, God Bless, & until next time May Even Your Cloudy Days Be Filled With Sunshine!
-DM-
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