SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The advertised ULL of tropical origins (TUTT low) affected the region Wednesday afternoon as expected. Showers and thunderstorms were perhaps a bit tardy in developing, but once they did during the early afternoon hours, they were scattered at random throughout the forecast area. Areal coverage was about 40%. Some areas received over 1" of rain, that is those areas that received a direct hit. The heaviest rain amounts were just N of the I-10 corridor from near Orange to North of Sulphur to near Jennings. Most of Lake Charles missed out on some beneficial rainfall. Unfortunately, the pattern over the next few days will be one that will not produce additional beneficial rainfall. It was a very hot June day, and everyone easily reached the 90s, and rain-free areas managed the mid 90s. These kind of temperatures will continue the next several days. Heat indices were once again over 105 at times. All convection has since come to an end tonight, and this will make way for a very quiet and mosquito-filled night across these parts...rather ho hum really! Expect minimums to range from the mid to upper 70s, generally a few notches above normal for mid June.
The ongoing battle between the upper ridge and the Bermuda High will resume on Thursday. This time, the upper ridge will begin to have the upper hand again. Thus, the reason for the title. The building ridge will provide less in the way of afternoon relief. The day will start out with plenty of sunshine, and then with daytime heating we will the cumulus deck form resulting in Partly Cloudy skies as usual. The drier air in place at the mid and upper levels will keep vertical growth of the cumulus clouds to a bare minimum. While rain chances won't quite by 0 on Thursday, if it does rain at your location, you will be one of the lucky ones. Overall coverage will decrease from the 40% we saw on Wednesday, to about 20% as the ridge builds back in. Better chances for shower and thunderstorm activity will reside to the East of our forecast area as what's left of the TUTT low evacuates the region. The Desert ridge will become the dominating weather force for our area. Highs will once again be above normal with readings in the mid 90s. Heat index values will flirt with the danger zone of 105, if not temporarily exceed it. This is just a harbinger of things to come for the weekend. Any shower or storm that does bust through the cap will quickly disintegrate by sunset, leaving the entire area rain-free with just Clear skies and humid conditions on tap. Overnight lows will not be unlike that of tonight.
There's not much to say really about Friday-Sunday. This Father's Day weekend will be one of plenty of heat, lots of sunshine, and very little if any chance of rain. The upper level ridge will only strengthen on Friday, and keep a stranglehold on the forecast area through Sunday. This will virtually take away any shot of sea breeze activity which we count on for relief. The increased amounts of sunshine will cause temperatures to be well above normal with mid 90s for nearly everyone, and upper 90s for a large majority of the forecast area. The hottest locales across the region could reach 100 degrees. Heat indices will be very close to the heat advisory criteria for this area of 108. Use extreme caution when out and about, and use extra sunscreen. Dad might want to stay in the A/C this Father's Day. An isolated afternoon thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out Friday through Sunday, but the chances are very slim and are not worth mentioning in the forecast at this time. This dry spell will only worsen the ongoing drought conditions across the area.
The ridging processes begin to weaken again early next week with the Bermuda high once again becoming the dominant weather feature. This will bring back the typical afternoon ritual of scattered showers and storms at any one particular location. Partly Cloudy and Hot weather will prevail otherwise. There's virtually no way to pinpoint exactly where it will rain on any given day, it is just simply luck of the draw. Hopefully though at some point in the Monday-Wednesday time frame our number will come up. Rain chances will stand at about 20% for Monday and 20-30% for Tuesday and Wednesday, which is essentially normal for mid-late June, and the period around the Summer Solstice around these parts. The pattern will be one that favors sea breeze activity each day, and by the time we get closer to this period there could be other perturbations in the flow that will aid in scattered convection. Models often times don't initialize embedded perturbations that could be present in the overall pattern this far out. These day to day variances are what drive our rain chances up or down over the course of our long, hot summer season. Temperatures will remain very hot, but should respond accordingly to the presence of more moisture. Highs should be in the low to mid 90s, while morning lows continue to range generally from the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon heat indices will approach the danger category. Here's hoping we get cooled off by one of Mother Nature's natural air conditioners.The extended period offers more of the same ho hum summer pattern we are accustomed to. The day to day variances in rainfall chances will continue as we head into July in a couple weeks.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/95 76/96 77/97 0 20 0 0 0 0
LFT 76/94 76/95 77/96 0 20 0 0 0 0
BPT 77/96 77/97 76/98 0 20 0 0 0 0
AEX 74/97 74/99 75/100 0 20 0 0 0 0
POE 75/97 75/98 75/100 0 20 0 0 0 0
ARA 77/93 77/94 76/95 0 20 0 0 0 0
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 95. South wind 10 mph. Heat index 101-106 in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 96. South wind 10 mph. Heat index 102-107 in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 77. Light SE wind.
Saturday..Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy and Very Hot. High 97. South wind 10 mph. Heat index 103-108 in the afternoon.
Thursday 6/17/10 Day Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 7
H.I. 91
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 102
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 106
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
H.I.: 103
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
6-17-10
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 101-106
Friday
6-18-10
Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 102-107
Saturday
6-19-10
Low: 75
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 103-108
Sunday
6-20-10
Father's Day
Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8-13
H.I.: 103-108
Monday
6-21-10
Summer Solstice
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
Tuesday
6-22-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
Wednesday
6-23-10
Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
...Tropical Update...
The tropical wave which has garnered mention this week is barely hanging on tonight. The wind shear that I mentioned in previous discussions is taking control of the investigative area. The tropical wave has flared up and looked close to depression stage at times, but early on this Thursday morning it is barely hanging on. The present low-level center has been displaced out ahead of the main convection. This is a sign of decent amounts of wind shear. The wind shear over the Eastern Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles will continue to plague this system. There is virtually no chance for this system to develop now as shear will continue to increase across the open Atlantic through Thursday. This region is typically not one that we look for development to occur in this early in the season, so it is not unusual that the system is falling apart. Other than this area of interest, there are no other interesting features in the tropics at this time. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Thursday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:53a.m. 2:11p.m.
High: 8:33a.m. 7:00p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.19'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Low: 77
Normal Low: 72
Record Low: 55-1917
High: 96
Normal High: 89
Record High: 101-1906
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.59"
Normal Month to Date: 3.34"
Year to Date: 13.39"
Normal Year to Date: 25.38"
Record: 2.64"-2004
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Thunder
Fog
Haze
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 77
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 73
High: 94
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 86
Rain: 0.88"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:11a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 8:16p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Saturday June 19
Full Moon- Saturday May 26
Last Quarter- Sunday July 4 (Independence Day)
New Moon- Sunday July 11
Have a Great Thursday, God Bless, & until next time May Even Your Cloudy Days Be Filled With Sunshine!
-DM-
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