I hope everyone had a good weekend, and a good Monday! I apologize for the lack of blogs lately, but I promise that everything is back on track now, and you can expect a regular appetite of blogs once again. I still have some notes to post about hurricane season and the oil spill, which should be posted on Tuesday. Also, the audio blogs should return on Tuesday as well. Please continue to bare with me as everyone finally returns to a sense of normalcy here.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion... The first week of June closed out on a typical summer note. It was very humid and quite hot with with readings reaching the mid 90s across most inland locales. Only the immediate coast evaded the mid 90s, but it was still hot with readings topping out near 90. The dominant summer sea breeze kept these areas cooler than everyone else. Like clockwork, afternoon convection developed after lunch as the sea breeze effect was maximized due to daytime heating. The upper level ridge over the Desert SW did not strengthen and build over the area as forecast last week, thankfully. This has kept us on the edge of maximum suppression, and thus allowed for a continued weakness in the mid and upper levels which was needed to support thermally induced activity this afternoon. A stalled and decaying frontal boundary resided just north of the forecast area over the ARK-LA-TEX, and that also acted as a trigger for storms especially in Northern portions of the forecast area. Areal coverage was less today than it has been in the preceding days. An upper level low created instability and enhanced lift across the forecast area at the end of last week, which resulted in numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. This brought beneficial rainfall to the area. As is typical in the summer months, rainfall amounts varied greatly from one location to the next, but nearly all if not everyone received at least some rainfall over the course of the last 5-6 days. The shower and thunderstorm activity has ended for today with the loss of daytime heating. A quiet night is on tap with plenty of mosquitoes and humidity. Expect low temperatures to be nearly Xeroxed from last night with readings in the mid to upper 70s area wide.
Tuesday, as we start the second calendar week of June, a weather regime very representative of early June is expected to continue. It will very much be a broken record, and there’s only so many ways to beat a dead horse! I will try to keep the creative juices flowing to come up with different ways to describe the same ole summer scheme. That is what we’ll deal with Tuesday, like we’ve done 123,456,789 previous times before. The sea breeze will get active once again around mid-day and lift inland, and the effects of daytime heating will aid in storm development after lunch. Atmospheric conditions will be very similar to that of Monday and average to just above an average smattering of convection is expected. So, if you still want more rain, maybe you will be one of the 3-4 out of every 10 people that receives rain on Tuesday. The other 6-7 out of 10 will be basking in the continued above normal temperatures. Highs should reach the low to mid 90s once again, and with the oppressive humidity values heat indices will make like Kenny Loggins and reach the “Danger Zone” of 105 during maximum heating hours in the afternoon. Average highs are in the upper 80s this time of year. The storms will rest once again on Tuesday night as daytime heating evades.
The middle portion of the forecast period at mid-week makes like a John Mayer album and offers a "Continuum." Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be placed at random throughout the forecast period in the Wednesday-Friday time frame. Coverage each of these days should be a bit less as some drier air works into the mid and upper levels as the pesky upper level low which raised rain chances last week only slowly weakens and lifts out off to our NE. It is solely its close proximity that will help enhance the sea breeze activity, that will ultimately lead to the afternoon convection. Rain chances lessen by Friday as mid and upper level ridging strengthens across the area. This will result in atmospheric suppression with only a slight chance of any cumulus clouds undergoing enough vertical growth to mature into an afternoon storm. All storms should decay by sunset, and the nighttime hours will be quiet aside from the crickets! A very similar temperature regime is expected with highs in the low to mid 90s while morning lows remain in the mid to upper 70s...this is a bit above normal for both maximums and minimums. The heat index will continue to come into play in the afternoon with the possibility of readings exceeding the 105 degree threshold. Find a nice, refreshing pool!
The second weekend of June looks like it will be bit drier than the first one was. Mid and upper level ridging strengthens and only isolated convection is expected for the afternoon hours. While the chance of showers and thunderstorms won't be zero, it'll be close with the high pressure likely winning out to negate any vertical growth of the cumulus clouds. There will still be the presence of the afternoon sea breeze, so that along may trigger one or two storms somewhere in the forecast area, but only a lucky few will see any rain at all this weekend, at least as it stands right now. Models have been arguing over this issue for the last couple days. If the Bermuda high is stronger than currently forecast, then rain chances will be closer to normal for the weekend period. The smaller chance of rain and increased subsidence will also translate into warmer temperatures. Highs will average the mid 90s with some locations easily reaching the upper 90s. For now, I will not mention any 100 degree readings, but if the ridge is stronger that could certainly happen. Either way, it'll be a hot one..."like seven inches from the midday sun". You could guess that the heat and humidity rolls over into another week on Monday at the end of the forecast period. You would be correct! Day to day variances will control rain chances and whether or not the sea breeze is less active or more active than normal. As of right now, it appears that Monday should be about an average mid June day. Average to slightly above average temperatures are expected with mid 90s very feasible area wide for highs, and lows will remain in their current range generally in the mid 70s over the forecast area. The extended forecast is one of persistence with the standard summer scenario expected to play out as we head towards the astrological first day of summer, the summer solstice.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/93 76/93 76/94 0 40 0 30 0 30
LFT 76/93 76/94 76/94 0 40 0 30 0 30
BPT 77/94 77/95 77/95 0 30 0 30 0 20
AEX 74/94 74/95 75/96 0 40 0 30 0 30
POE 74/93 75/94 75/96 0 40 0 30 0 30
ARA 76/92 77/93 77/93 0 40 0 30 0 30
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Heat index values 98-103.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Heat index values 100-105.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 94. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 6/8/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 11
H.I.: 93
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Chance of Thunderstorms
Temp: 93
Precip: 40%
Wind: SSE 15
H.I.: 101
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Chance of an Evening Thunderstorm
Temp: 89
Precip: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 99
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
6-8-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
Wednesday
6-9-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 99-104
Thursday
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 99-104
Friday
6-11-10
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I: 100-105
Saturday
6-12-10
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Sunday
6-13-10
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Monday
6-14-10
Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
...Tropical Update...
The season is off to its typical slow start. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 7:38a.m. 7:00p.m.
High: 2:14a.m. 10:49a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.48'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, June 7, 2010
Low: 78
Normal Low: 71
Record Low: 60-1926
High: 93
Normal High: 88
Record High: 100-1911
Rainfall
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 1.58"
Normal Month to Date: 1.47"
Year to Date: 13.38"
Normal Year to Date: 23.51"
Record: 4.80"-1949
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Thunderstorm
Haze
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 65
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 72
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 66
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:11a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 8:13p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Saturday June 12
First Quarter- Saturday June 19
Full Moon- Saturday May 26
Last Quarter- Sunday July 4 (Independence Day)
Have a Great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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