Tropical Weather Discussion...Alex is nearing hurricane strength early this morning. It is poised to become the season's first hurricane later today. We still have many questions to answer in regards to Alex, so without further adieu, here goes...
Tropical Storm Alex
1a.m. CDT Tuesday, June 29, 2010
...Alex Slowly Strengthening...Approaching Hurricane Strength...Aimed at South Texas or North Mexico later this week...
Latitude: 21.4 N
Longitude: 91.8 W
This is about 415 miles ESE of La Pesca, Mexico and 475 miles SE of Brownsville, Texas.
Winds: 65 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected today, and this should bring Alex to category 1 hurricane status sometime later today. The tropical storm force winds now extend outward to 80 miles from the center of circulation. The wind field will continue to expand as the storm intensifies. Alex is forecast to make landfall as a hurricane Thursday.
Movement: NNW or 340 degrees @ 8 mph. This general motion should continue this morning, but a turn to the NW is expected later today followed by a WNW turn on Wednesday. On this track, Alex will approach the Gulf coast in the hurricane warning area Thursday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.09" or 985 mb.
Watches/Warnings...The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. It remains in effect for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas from La Cruz to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on the U.S./Mexico border & from the U.S./Mexico border to Baffin Bay, Texas. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the watch area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the first occurrence of tropical storm force winds are expected to occur. These are the conditions that make outdoor preparations dangerous and difficult.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coastline on Wednesday while hurricane conditions approach the coast at the same time.
Storm surge...A storm surge of 3-5' above ground level along the immediate coast. This will occur near and to the North of the center of circulation. Near the coast the storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Discussion...Alex moved little Monday evening, but is showing signs of being on the move again early this morning. Alex's strengthening was also briefly hampered by some shear to the North of the storm over the Gulf waters, however, this brief period of shear has lifted out and the strengthening process is resuming. The NHC has raised the winds on the last full update at 10p.m. Monday to 65 mph. Alex is nearing hurricane strength, and it will likely achieve such dubious status later today. Alex's motion has been almost due North tonight, but as new steering currents are established a better motion will be noted. Alex should move between NNW and NW today, before bending back to the NW and WNW by Wednesday. The storm is responding to a weakness which has developed in the wake of an eroding ridge over the Gulf coast. This weakness has nudged Alex to the North this morning. A secondary ridge is forecast to develop over the Great Plains and Mid West later this week. It appears as though this ridge may be strong enough by that time to steer Alex back to the West. The model consistency early this morning is almost as good as it has been since the storm's inception Friday. Models are clustered generally in the Rio Grande region. Some are on the Texas side, while others are on the Mexican side, but the consensus is the Rio Grande. The official forecast track calls for landfall to occur just South of the U.S./Mexico border Thursday. I will stick with the NHC's official forecast track for now, though I still believe a U.S. landfall will occur. I believe this will occur between KBRO (Brownsville) and KCRP (Corpus Christi). I believe the storm will travel a bit further North than expected.
The intensity forecast remains a bit uncertain. While it seems inevitable that Alex will achieve hurricane status later today, there is still much deliberation as to how strong he will be at landfall. Many of the models even show the storm not reaching hurricane status at all. The current forecast suggests Alex will be a category 1 storm at landfall Thursday. A category 2 seems feasible as well especially if Alex moves at a slower pace than faster, and has more time to feed off the Gulf. A track further North closer to SW Louisiana would likely also mean a stronger storm, and would certainly increase the threat to our area. The effects that I have been mentioning for the last couple of days remain in tact. The effects should be minimal with increase rain chances across the area through Friday. A long fetch onshore flow will also continue, and as the low deepens the winds will increase over the marine zones. It is possible that some storm surge will occur across our area mainly for the immediate coast. The long fetch onshore flow around the cyclonic flow will result in tidal backup and an increase in seas along the coast. Storm surge of 2-3' is expected. Large and dangerous swells will be felt at the coast. It is unclear how a storm on this track will effect the oil spill zone. All we can do is hope and pray for the best.
While it appears at this time, that the storm is not aimed for SW Louisiana, all are encouraged to keep a watchful eye because at this time, the storm is in situation where either scenario of a more Westward track or to the North can play out. It is not prudent to assume that we are out of the woods just yet. I also stress that it is important to remember that the black line displaying the official storm track is not the only thing to focus on. The storm covers a much wider area than the skinny black line, and it is true that on this track the worst of the weather would bypass SW Louisiana. However, with the position of the center of circulation it is inevitable that we will see some effects. Anything to the right of the center is subject to some adverse weather in a tropical system, especially when one is as large as Alex currently is. The overwhelming consistency with the models this morning increasing the forecast confidence just a bit, although there is still plenty of uncertainty. All eyes should remain on the Gulf until further notice. I won't give the all clear on this one, until it is safely inland during the latter half of the week.
That's all for this update. The next complete update from the National Hurricane Center will be at 4a.m. CDT, and then again at 10a.m. CDT. My next Alex update will be around 10a.m. Be sure, to scroll down for your Tuesday forecast discussion. I promised audio blogs earlier, but unfortunately it'll be one more day before the resumption of the audio blogs. Thanks for reading, and please feel free to leave any questions or comments you may have right here on the page, or via e-mail. Also, this is the only information source you will need when it comes to weather in SW Louisiana. It is my duty and my goal to serve you, and provide you with the most accurate and complete weather coverage. I strive to be the best, and that is what you'll get. I am totally committed to serving the people of the great city of Lake Charles, and this wonderful community of SW Louisiana. Please visit this site often, and please do make it the only one you check for weather information.
Good night and God bless! Have a great Tuesday!
-DM-
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