My apologies for lack of blogs this week, there's much to discuss, but I had a malfunctioning power cord on ye ole laptop so it's been out of commission most of the week. I am back in the saddle, and I promise you consistent, accurate weather information. We could have some tropical activity over the next few days, and I promise you if we do the coverage I will provide to you will be the best around. You need not turn anywhere else but right here for the most extensive and accurate tropical weather information this season. The tropical update will be inserted at the top of the page once a system that is an imminent threat to the Gulf, and the page will be restructured a bit to support the most updated tropical coverage. The blog will be in severe weather, tropical mode, or holiday mode, whatever you want it to call it when there's an active system that threatens the Gulf. It is my goal and my duty to provide the great people of SW Louisiana with the most complete and accurate weather information, and make no mistake about it that is what you'll get right here at Drew's Wonderful World of Weather.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The brief pattern change is coming to an end. It was a pattern change that allowed the forecast area to see better chances of showers and thunderstorms over the last couple of days. Most areas have seen some beneficial rainfall over the last 2 days. Of course, some saw more than others, and many are disappointed with the amount of rain they received in this time frame. The feature that caused the enhanced rainfall over the forecast area, an easterly wave, has moved off into Texas and is weakening as of this writing. Temperatures also responded with the enhanced cloud cover and rain chances in place. Most areas avoided reaching the mid to upper 90s the last couple of days, and on Wednesday many locales stayed in the 80s. The maximums the last couple of days have been more representative of late June, this too will be changing again as we head into the last weekend of June.
The ridge that has dominated the forecast much of the summer so far, rebuilds beginning today. This will unfortunately result in a reversal of fortune across the forecast area. The temperatures will return to above normal levels into the mid to upper 90s, and afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will be very limited, if any at all. Heat indices will also be more of a factor reaching or exceeding the dangerous threshold of 105 once again. Since the ridge will be rebuilding today, there will still be a shot of one or two storms, but only 20% at best. This is noted in the official forecast. The surface wind pattern will continue to be one that is onshore, but it will be light with the high pressure bubbling over once again. The quiet regime continues into the weekend. The ridge will only intensify as we get into the weekend, and temperatures will likely exceed 100 in inland locations north of I-10. Upper 90s will be expected for the I-10 corridor, and even the coast could get as hot as 95 or so. Heat indices could approach the heat advisory criteria of 108 across the area for a couple hours during the hottest time of the day in the afternoon, but based on the NWS Lake Charles official criteria, a heat advisory will likely not be issued. With the ridge firmly entrenched over the Bayou State again through Sunday, it will be a toss up as to which day will be hotter this weekend. It will be similar each day, and won't really make much difference. Temperatures will average the upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday, but will certainly exceed 100 in many places both days. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the high will exceed 100 here in the Lake Charles area, but that is not forecast at this juncture. Either way, it will be another scorching hot weekend. While it is not reflected in the official forecast, there could be an isolated thunderstorm or two over the course of the weekend simply because it'll be so hot, and everything is convectively driven this time of year anyway. There's no way of telling you if you will be a lucky one or not, it's just a luck of the draw sort of deal. Morning lows each day will remain similar to previous mornings in the mid to upper 70s for most. The exception will be the immediate coast where it may only cool off to the lower 80s...not really cool at all is it?
Now, next week...stay with me here, there's a lot on the menu, or at least potentially. If we had our druthers, we would get see the standard summer scenario Monday-Thursday with the ridge relinquishing its stronghold on the forecast area by Monday. This will allow for a return to afternoon scattered sea breeze convection each day, and temperatures dropping back a few notches to the low to mid 90s. However, we don't get to choose what kind of weather we'd like to have, and the entire week's forecast could be anything but normal. Here's some specifics. We've been talking all this week about the potential for some tropical development. This is still a possibility as we head into Friday and the weekend. The tropical entity (wave) in question is currently in the Central Caribbean off the coast of Central America, and getting better organized. Models have been consistent on this feature moving towards the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. There are plenty of uncertainties that exist as well. While you can't ignore the consistency with the models to show a Gulf system next week, you also must consider that they each show different modes of intensity. It could range anywhere from an open tropical wave as it is right now all the way up to a hurricane as per the models. We are just in watch and wait mode. The system is showing signs of better organization tonight, and it is conceivably possible that we will have a classified tropical system sometime later today, but until then it will be hard to focus on one idea. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon. That being said, models are fairly consistent that moisture will increase across these parts next week in response to the tropical low in the Gulf. As a result, this is reflected in the current forecast beginning Tuesday and lasting through the end of the forecast period Thursday. The entire forecast for next week will all hinge on what happens with said tropical entity. Temperatures should drop to near normal levels with the increased moisture across the area. However, there's another monkey wrench to throw into the equation. Although, I will say the odds of this possibility occurring are typically nearly impossible this time of year around these parts. That is, a cold front! Models, particularly the GFS, have been quite insistent on showing a rare summer cold front making it into and all the way through the area. I don't believe it will reach us yet, based on historical reasoning, however, it is possible. Even if the front doesn't come through, it could ultimately factor into the equation on what becomes of Invest 93L, and where its ultimate destination will be. However, if the front were to come through it wouldn't be until Thursday anyway, so we have plenty of time to re-assess that idea. If it should come through, it may actually make for a bit of a refreshing 4th of July weekend with lower humidity values the most noticeable asset in the post-frontal environment...it remains to be seen! For now, I will side with the idea of a typical summer pattern with a daily chance of afternoon showers and storms, and temperatures a few degrees above normal in the mid 90s on average. However, the idea of a cold front to start the month of July is on the table. Stay tuned...it appears that busy times are ahead in the weather office!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 97 76/98 75/99 20 0 10 0 10
LFT 97 76/98 75/98 20 0 10 0 10
BPT 98 76/99 76/99 20 0 10 0 10
AEX 99 75/100 75/101 20 0 10 0 10
POE 99 75/100 75/100 20 0 10 0 10
ARA 96 77/97 76/98 20 0 10 0 10
Today...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Hot. High 97. SSE wind 10 mph. Heat indices 102-107 this afternoon.
Tonight...Mostly Clear with lots of humidity. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Very Hot. High 98. SSE wind 10 mph. Heat index values 103-108 in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SE wind.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Very Hot. High 99. SE wind 10 mph. Heat indices 104-109 in the afternoon.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
6-25-10
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 102-107
Saturday
6-26-10
High: 98
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 7-12
H.I.: 103-108
Sunday
6-27-10
53 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Audrey
High: 99
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE 8-13
H.I.: 104-109
Monday
6-28-10
Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 102-107
Tuesday
6-29-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 40%
Wind: ENE 15-20
Wednesday
6-30-10
Watching the Gulf
Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 40%
Wind: ENE 15-20
Thursday
7-1-10
Watching the Tropics
Low: 76
High: 91
Rain: 40%
Wind: ESE 15-20
...Tropical Update...
I already alluded to the fact that we're watching a tropical wave that continues to get better ogranized in the Central Caribbean. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will investigate the area of interest this afternoon. Invest 93L as it is currently dubbed, is slowly moving off to the WNW at a snail's pace off the NE coast of Hondarus. It has struggled fighting off wind shear for much of the week, but is now in a more favorable enivronment. Conditions are conducive for further development of this system later today and this weekend. It will be moving in the general WNW motion towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. It remains to be seen how much interaction with land this system will encounter. Forecast models have been remarkably consistent in forecasting this system to reach the Southern Gulf late in the weekend or by the first of next week. However, they all vary greatly in intensity forecast. Intensity forecasts range from just an open wave as it is right now, to a significant category 2 hurricane. A track into the Gulf seems logical at this point, judging by the steering currents in the suspect region. However, from there the future track of Invest 93L is unclear at this time. Once we have an established storm on board, much of this will become a bit more certain. I should note that while all models initialize the system, and bring it in the general vicinity of the Southern Gulf, many of them initialize a low-level center in a different point. So, if the hurricane hunter finds a closed circulation and classifies the system, the models will initialize from that point, and our model data will respond accordingly. That said, I don't want to be too specific about the system just yet. Let's wait until it is on the board or not. Based on satellite representation (shown below) I believe this will be upgraded to T.D. 1 this afternoon.
There is much uncertainty for next week regarding where this system winds up. Landfall will be inevitable once it reaches the Gulf, however. There are 2 key factors that will likely dictate the motion of this system. These are the persistent upper level ridge of high pressure that has dominated our forecast so far this summer, and an approaching trough and associated rare summer cold front at mid-week. How these features behave may ultimately steer the current Invest 93L. We also need to account for how much of the Yucatan this system might encounter, and how much its interaction with land will impede its development. Pinning down a specific intensity and landfall point at this juncture is nearly impossible. The models idea for landfall points change with each run, so there's no point in pinpointing a specific landfall location at this time or an intensity forecast for that matter. The bottom line here is that someone along the Gulf Coast could stand the chance to be threatened by an early season tropical system next week. Further information will be available this afternoon after the Recon flight.
The previous maps were the satellite image of Invest 93L, and the model forecasts. Each color on the model map represents a different model. I want to include one more map for you with regards to Invest 93L. It may be a bit more complicated for you to understand, however it is a key map in helping forecast the future of the storm. The following map shows wind shear over the tropics. The black, blue, and green shadings represent areas where wind shear is non-existent or very minimal, while the yellow, orange, and red represent areas of higher wind shear. I will display this map several times over the next few days as we continue to forecast and track Invest 93L.
You can see the environment over the Caribbean and Gulf is favorable for development. The lines with arrows indicate the steering currents across the tropics.
Elsewhere, in the tropics...there are 2 major hurricanes on the Pacific side which are pretty to look at on satellite, especially big, bad category 4 Celia. Celia was a category 5 earlier this morning. Darby, is now up to category 3 status. However, thankfully both Celia and Darby will not impact any land on the Mexico coast. They should do no more than increase wave activity on the Pacific coast. Celia will continue weakening over the next few days as she moves into an area with cooler SSTs. Darby, could maintain major hurricane status through the weekend, before he feels the same fate as Celia.
Celia
Darby
On our side of the tropical world, we're also watching another tropical wave which has developed in the last 24 hours. It is getting its act together, and has officially been dubbed Invest 94L. it is located just to the NE of the Lesser Antilles, and is moving in a general WNW direction. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days. I don't want to spend too much time talking about this one right now as Invest 93L is more of an interest to us. However, models also depict development of this system next week. It is way too early to predict anything on this one, so just stay tuned.
Stay tuned for more on Invest 93L this afternoon as the Recon flight investigates.
...Marine Forecast...
Today...East winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
-DM-
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