Good afternoon on this very hot Saturday! No weather worries locally this weekend, just the heat! Our attention continues to be to our South with newly formed Tropical Storm garnering the majority of the weather headlines. This update is to provide you with the latest information.
Advisory...
The season's first tropical storm, Alex, continues to slowly strengthen as it trudges towards the Yucatan Peninsula...
Tropical Storm Alex- 1p.m. CDT Saturday, June 26, 2010
Latitude: 17.5 N
Longitude: 87. 2 W
This is about 75 miles E of Belize City, Belize & 100 miles ESE of Chetumal, Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph with higher gusts, and Alex continues to get better organized. Some further strengthening is anticipated today as Alex heads towards the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize tonight. Alex is a large tropical storm with tropical storm force winds extending outward 115 miles from the center.
Movement: WNW or 290 degrees at 13 mph. Alex has increased its forward speed, but a reduction in speed is forecast later today. The general WNW motion is forecast to continue through the weekend. On this track, Alex will move over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early Sunday. It is then forecast to continue across the Yucatan Peninsula, and emerge into the Southern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday night or Monday.
Minimum central pressure: 1003 mb. or 29.62"...Pressure continues to fall, and this is a sign of the expected further strengthening.
Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following locations: The coast of Belize, for the East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cancun, and for the islands of Roatan, Utila, and Guanaja in Honduras.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the following locations: The coast of Honduras from Limon Westward to the Guatemala border.
Discussion...The season's first named storm continues to undergo a Saturday strengthening scheme. Visible satellite imagery suggests the potential for a period of rapid intensification. The environment over the Western Caribbean is very favorable for development, and the storm is in an area of high oceanic heating content. All of these factors should lead to continued strengthening this afternoon and tonight until Alex interacts with the landmass of the Yucatan. Alex continues to move around the southern periphery of a strong high pressure system over the Gulf coast. This will continue to steer Alex towards the Southern Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday night or Monday morning. Another hurricane hunter will be investigating Alex shortly to see if additional strengthening has occurred. The storm is still organizing, therefore, additional adjustments to the center of circulation are possible this afternoon as the plane investigates. Often times, when the storm is in a developing stage, the center will re-locate to underneath some of the strongest convection. That is what Alex has been doing for the last 12-24 hours. Alex will of course weaken due to its interaction with land, however, the environment over the Gulf of Mexico is very favorable for re-strengthening. High pressure over the top of Alex will continue to move off to the WNW in tandem with the storm to keep it in a favorable, lightly-sheared environment. It is Alex's interaction with the Yucatan that will impede the ongoing strengthening process.
The forecast confidence for the next 24-48 hours is high, but after that confidence is largely decreased. The current official track from the National Hurricane Center takes Alex inland near Tampico, Mexico late Wednesday. The intensity forecast has changed as well. Given the favorable environment over the Gulf of Mexico, steady strengthening is forecast once Alex emerges into the Gulf, and the storm is now forecast to become a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall on Wednesday. This certainly seems logical, and it wouldn't be surprising if the storm was stronger than currently projected at the time of final landfall based on how well organized it is at present. The strip of land that Alex will travel over the Yucatan is fairly flat, so even though the circulation will weaken, it won't weaken as much as it would if the terrain were mountainous like much of Mexico. While the current forecast depicts a non-U.S. landfall, and little to no effects on our area there is still much speculation as to where Alex will ultimately wind up. The forecast track is a consensus of the models. The scenarios I mentioned in the previous discussion still hold firm as of this writing. The strong ridge in place across the Gulf coast is forecast by the majority of the global models to weaken by the first of the week. How much weakening takes place remains to be seen. The current forecast doesn't indicate that Alex will feel the weakness that develops along the Northern Gulf coast, however, if the ridge decays more than expected Alex could very well feel the weakness and take more of a Northern track. This would increase the threat to our area. The models have backed off somewhat on the idea of a rare summer cold front reaching the Gulf coast, but they still show a decent trough moving down which could be strong enough to change the steering currents over the Gulf, and nudge Alex to the N or NE at the end of the forecast period. This would delay landfall by a day or two, and could also allow for further strengthening. Therefore, I caution everyone to keep abreast of the latest forecast, and don't assume that just because the current track has the storm going to Mexico, that we are by any means off the hook. The whole situation will become much clearer once Alex emerges in the Gulf Monday. All interests along the Gulf coast should continue to monitor the progression of the storm. The cone of error is very large at 5 days, but due to the Westward or left shift in the forecast track, it doesn't include any portion of SW Louisiana at this time. I will not make a prediction just yet on where I believe landfall will be, but I do believe it will be somewhere along the Western Gulf coast. I believe everyone from near Tampico, Mexico to New Orleans could be threatened by the storm. I will further attempt to pinpoint a landfall location and intensity once Alex emerges in the Gulf. I also believe that Alex will indeed make landfall as a hurricane now, but the jury is still out on how much he will strengthen over the Gulf. On the current track effects on our area will be minimal to none. Moisture should increase with SE winds across the area as the ridge weakens, but this should do no more than increase our rain chances at mid-week. It is unclear if the current projected track will have any effect on the oil spill. It is likely that clean up operations will have to cease because of developing rough seas, but as far as how the oil is disbursed on a track like this remains to be seen.
The satellite imagery, forecast track, shear forecast, & model suite follows.
That's all for this update. Stay tuned for all the latest on Tropical Storm Alex. The next advisory on Tropical Storm Alex will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4p.m. CDT, and my next update will be after 10p.m. tonight.
Have a Great Saturday evening and God bless!
-DM-
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