Before I get to the forecast discussion...here's the latest on the Gulf Oil Spill...BP continues to collect oil and gas through the "Top Hat" which was assembled late last week. The "Top Hat" method is collecting between 10,00 & 11,000 barrels per day. While this is progress, this is only a minuscule amount when compared to the total amount of oil which is still leaking. BP is still working on bettering the situation, and engineers cite that it will still be a few more days before they can determine whether or not this procedure is successful. Additional enhancements are also being considered. One additional enhancement planned will utilize hoses and manifold deployed during the failed "top kill" operation. This will take oil and gas from holes on the side of the collapsed rig through a separate riser to a vessel on the surface. This system, if it works, will aid in increasing the amount of oil and gas that can be captured from the well. It is currently expected to be available for deployment by the middle of this month. BP continues to drill the two relief wells that are scheduled to be completed by mid-August.
In the coastal waters of the Gulf, a light onshore flow is forecast to persist for the next several days, and will generally be at speeds of 10 knots or less. The persistent onshore wind pattern over the last few weeks has continued to push oil slick towards the barrier islands along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. A westerly component of the wind has caused oil to move East paralleling the Florida Panhandle. Projections call for oil slick to continue moving toward the shoreline of SE Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle over the coming days with coastal contact expected. Points further N such as Breton Sound, Chandeleur Sound, and the NE side of the Mississippi Delta are less likely to see more oil move over the area in this pattern. Any patches of oil to the W of the Mississippi Delta could make landfall between Timbalier Bay and Southwest Pass.
The area of the Gulf that is closed to fishing and all recreational activity continues to expand. The current portion of the Gulf of Mexico that is closed extends from near Vermilion Bay, LA on the Western border to the Eastern portion of the Florida Panhandle. There remains the possibility that the oil could reach the Florida Keys and get caught up in the Gulf Stream and spread up the Atlantic Seaboard. It is also still conceivable that some of the oil slick will reach SW Louisiana. It is simply a wait and see matter at this point. There has been a lot of speculation now that we are in hurricane season as to how a storm in the Gulf would affect the oil spill and vice versa. I am attaching a .pdf file courtesy of NOAA that makes heads and tails of that situation. Click the link below.
Hurricanes & The Oil Spill
I ask that you continue to pray that God will bless us all during this natural disaster of epic proportions. Pray for the protection of our coastline, our economy, and our wildlife. Also, let us not forget about the 11 lives that were lost in the oil rig explosion nearly 2 months ago. God bless the victims and their families, and God bless the Gulf coast and all those affected by this disaster.
That's all I have on the oil spill for now. I just wanted to make one more note about hurricane season before I get to the forecast. Of course, there is mania, hoopla, whatever term you want to use when describing what the media tries to make everyone believe will happen this season. They turn the preseason forecasts into a news story, just to make news. However, these preseason forecasts are done by experts, and it is strictly to give everyone an idea that it might be an active season. There is no way of knowing ultimately how many storms will form over the course of the season. It might be 14, it might be 23, or maybe somewhere in between. I do believe it will be an active season, especially when compared to that of a year ago when El Nino was present. There is no El Nino present this season, and this alone will likely lead to a more active season. However, I will NOT speculate on how many storms I believe there will be, because as you've heard me say a nauseum numbers are irrelevant. God is the only one that truly knows how many storms there will be, and where they will end up. Where they end up is what makes the season. It only takes one storm to make a bad season, if you are the one that encounters it. So, please don't get caught up in the hurricane hype imposed by the media. That being said, don't let the media or any non meteorologist or scientist tell you they know how the oil will be affected by a hurricane. Even as meteorologists, and other scientists in the field we're not totally sure how this will play out. So, for the president or anyone not knowledgeable of these powerful entities to say they know how it will play out is bogus as well. All we can do is be prepared and just pray. Which leads me to this...there is a prayer that was written by the former Bishop of the Diocese of Lafayette (which included Lake Charles & SW Louisiana at the time). It was written after Hurricane Audrey devastated SW Louisiana in 1957. It was written by the Most Reverend Maurice Schexnayder. I felt obliged to include on the blog. I will post it here on the text block, and also keep it as a permanent fixture on the right hand side of the page throughout the season. I ask all of you to say this prayer each day, so that God will keep us safe this season, and always protect our lives and property when the storms do come. The prayer follows, and then I'll go right into the discussion...God bless America and God bless SW Louisiana!
O God, Master of this passing world hear the humble voices of your children.
The Sea of Galilee obeyed Your order and returned to its former quietide.
You are still the Master of land and sea.
We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control; the Gulf like a provoked and angry giant, can awaken from its seeming lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and spread chaos and disaster.
During this hurricane season we turn to You, O loving Father. Spare us from past tragedies whose memories are still so vivid and whose wounds seem to refuse to heal with passing of time.
O Virgin, Star of the Sea, Our Beloved Mother, we ask you to please with your Son in our behalf, so that spared from the calamities common to this area and animated with a true spirit of gratitude, we will walk in the footsteps of your Divine Son to reach the heavenly Jerusalem where a stormless eternity await us.
In the name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit...Amen!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Another hot and humid day has come to an end across the forecast away, and given way to a very humid night. Showers and thunderstorms were more limited across the area that previously thought due to some high cloudiness from storms in the Houston area. This prevented most areas from reaching the convective potential temperature. Most of the convective inflow was wrapped into the storms over SE Texas, and this combined with the additional cloud cover helped to limit shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. While shower and thunderstorm activity may have been limited, humidity certainly wasn't, and it still felt very hot with the heavy air in place. Copious amounts of humidity have led to lots of condensation on glass surfaces the past several days with the A/C cranked all the way up on the inside. High temperatures still managed the lower 90s on average, which is just a smidgeon above the early June benchmark. Any areas of convection have since gone to bed for the night, and quiet weather is expected with generally clear skies and low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s once again.
Upper level lows often play chicken with the train or make for a difficult forecast for the meteorologist if you will. That is what we are contending with at this juncture, and Wednesday will be another challenging day. Rain chances are expected to once again be above normal with at least half of the area, maybe a bit more, receiving some shower and/or thunderstorm activity. The upper level low will reside over Central Texas, and it will likely result in nocturnal convection to form overnight in close proximity to the low. Here on the eastern periphery of this low, it is likely that some outflow boundaries and/or embedded disturbances will eject out from the core of the upper level low during the day Wednesday. These will interact with the advancing sea breeze and daytime heating leading to shower and thunderstorm genesis during the afternoon hours. The morning hours should be filled with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will warm up quickly from the mid to upper 70s at sunrise to around 90 by noon. Convective potential temperatures will be very near the 90 degree threshold, therefore by lunch time there should be a decent distribution of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity especially over SE Texas and parts of SW Louisiana. Rain chances will be a bit less over Acadiana and in the Alexandria area, as these areas will be further away from the pesky Texas upper level low. Maximum temperatures should eclipse the normal value by a few degrees again with readings similar to that of Tuesday expected. Of course, a persistent onshore flow will prevail, and this is what will generate the sea breeze by noon with the water temperatures continuing to be cooler than those over land. The upper level low will finally begin to lift out and weaken by late Wednesday and Wednesday night. All convective activity will decay by sunset, and another quiet and humid night is expected on Wednesday night. Expect a similar temperature regime.
If you are still wanting some rainfall, hopefully Wednesday will be your day, because by Thursday the opportunity for beneficial rain will be on the decrease. The scoured out upper level low will be replaced with drier air in the mid and upper levels. This will act as a atmospheric suppression mechanism. This means that shower and thunderstorm will be on a very limited basis, and more or less only on an isolated basis. There will still be plenty of cumulus clouds present, but the atmospheric suppression will put a stranglehold on the amount of vertical growth. It is the vertical growth of the cumulus clouds that leads to the development of thunderstorms. The sea breeze will still be active with the prevailing onshore flow, and this alone may help to produce one or two storms, but overall coverage will not be mentionable at this time. Partly Cloudy skies are expected and high temperatures will approach the mid 90s. Heat index values will also continue to make it near unbearable with readings approaching the danger category of 105 during peak heating hours. The ridging process only strengthens for week's end, thus negating any significant chance of scattered convection at this time. Again, any mention of pops is negligible for this time frame. Temperatures will easily reach the mid 90s by Friday, and heat indices will top 105 at times. Morning lows will continue to be in the mid to upper 70s with even some lower 80s possible at the coastline. The prevailing Southerly flow acts as a filter for the coastline so to speak. The mornings are warmer than anywhere else, while afternoons are cooler than elsewhere.
The mid and upper level ridge holds firm for the weekend. Therefore, rain chances are next to nothing for the entire weekend. Partly Cloudy skies and high humidity will result in mid 90s for maxes, and heat indices approaching the danger category of 105 once again. Morning lows should remain in the mid to upper 70s. The active sea breeze will be about the only thing that would conjure up a shower or storm during the Saturday-Sunday time frame. Rain chances will not be reflected in the forecast for this time period as this forecast package. As I mentioned last night, there is possibility that the ridge won't build in as strong as models indicate that it will over the forecast area. If this is the case, then about an average chance of shower and thunderstorm activity will be expected. I will hold firm for now, and keep the weekend dry.
Next week for the end of the forecast period, the chance for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening hours will return. The controlling mid and upper level high should shift back to the West, and that will bring us back under the influence of the persistent Bermuda high off the East Coast of Florida. This will enhance the daily sea breeze sequence of events. The sea breeze and daytime heating will be the trigger mechanisms for the development of the much needed shower and thunderstorm activity. Chances begin to increase Monday as the high shifts, but a better and average chance is slated for Tuesday as our usual summer pattern takes over once again. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal in the low 90s while morning lows will generally be in the mid 70s. All convective will quiet down to nothing after sunset. The status quo is a good thing, wouldn't you say? Looking beyond this forecast period, typical summer weather is slated to continue as we head towards the Summer Solstice. There will be the usual day to day variances that will increase or decrease rain chances, but the storms will strictly be convectively driven. Temperatures will generally run from near normal to slightly above normal.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/90 76/93 76/94 0 60 0 20 0 10
LFT 75/92 76/94 76/95 0 40 0 20 0 10
BPT 76/89 76/92 77/93 0 60 0 30 0 20
AEX 73/92 74/95 74/97 0 40 0 20 0 10
POE 73/92 74/95 74/96 0 40 0 20 0 10
ARA 76/91 76/92 77/93 0 40 0 20 0 10
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a good chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms by afternoon. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 94. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 6/9/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 9
H.I.: 86
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 87
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 96
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Scattered to Numerous T-Storms
Temp: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15
H.I.: 100
6p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly w/ Scattered Storms
Temp: 87
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 95
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
H.I.: 88
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
6-9-10
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
Thursday
6-10-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
Friday
6-11-10
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Saturday
6-12-10
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Sunday
6-13-10
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Monday
6-14-10
Low: 77
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
Tuesday
6-15-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
...Tropical Update...
All is quiet on the tropical front. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Thursday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:26a.m. 7:36p.m.
High: 3:08a.m. 11:16a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.48'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Low: 75
Normal Low: 71
Record Low: 59-1930
High: 92
Normal High: 88
Record High: 104-1911
Rainfall
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 1.58"
Normal Month to Date: 1.68"
Year to Date: 13.38"
Normal Year to Date: 23.72"
Record: 2.90"-1897
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 70
High: 89
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 0.16"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 66
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:11a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 8:13p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Saturday June 12
First Quarter- Saturday June 19
Full Moon- Saturday May 26
Last Quarter- Sunday July 4 (Independence Day)
Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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