The latest information on Tropical Storm Alex is available, and he continues to be the big weather story. It's time to give you all the latest details.
Advisory
1a.m. Sunday, June 27, 2010
Latitude: 18.0 N
This is about 55 miles SW of Chetumal, Mexico and 165 miles SW of Campeche, Mexico.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph. This makes Alex barely a tropical storm at this time, and weakening will continue today as long as Alex is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Alex should become a tropical depression later this morning. Re-strengthening is expected once the storm enters the Gulf later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the center.
Movement: WNW or 290 degrees @ 12 mph. This general motion is forecast to continue through Monday. Alex will emerge into the Southern Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon or tonight.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb. or 29.53". Pressures are rising at this time due to the weakening trend, but should begin to decrease once again later today as the storm moves back over water.
Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the coast of Belize and for the East coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cancun. These warnings will likely be discontinued later today, but other watches and warnings will likely be issued downstream in anticipation of the track of Alex.
Rainfall totals of 4-8" are expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, parts of Honduras and parts of Guatemala through Monday morning. Some isolated amounts of 15" or more are possible in these areas as well, and this will lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Discussion...Alex moved inland Saturday evening in Northern Belize. It was undergoing a rapid strengthening process at the time as winds jumped from 45 mph at the 1p.m. advisory to 65 mph winds at the 4p.m. advisory. Alex would've likely become a hurricane if it would've had a few more hours over water. Its interaction with land will cause the ongoing temporary downturn in intensity. However, the storm is moving at a steady clip between 10-15 mph, and this will allow for Alex to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight with its low-level circulation in place. Of course, it will emerge into the Southern Gulf as a tropical depression. However, the environment over the Gulf is very supportive of re-strengthening. Alex should begin another period of maturation over the Southern Gulf by Monday. The official forecast continues to strengthen the intensity of Alex before he makes his ultimate landfall later this week.
There is not much change in the forecast philosophy. Alex is still forecast to move towards the coast of Old Mexico. The storm should emerge into the Gulf later tonight, and the forward speed may decrease by a few mph. Steering currents in the vicinity of the storm are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours. High pressure over the top of Alex will aid in development, and Alex is projected to obtain category 1 hurricane status on Tuesday as it approaches mainland Mexico. The current forecast track brings Alex inland as a 80 mph hurricane to the South of Tampico, Mexico Wednesday. Again, the ideas I've thrown on the table in previous discussions are still valid. The controlling ridge entrenched along the Gulf coast is still shown by global models to weaken starting Monday. If Alex takes a more Northward track across the Yucatan, it could certainly feel the influence of the developing weakness. This could raise the current minimal threat level to SW Louisiana. Model consensus is coming into more agreement of keeping Alex on a W to WNW heading through its entire journey. There are still a few outliers which bring the storm very close to our area, as they indicate a much stronger weakness over the Western Gulf Coast Region. These are currently being disregarded due to the overwhelming consistency in the majority of the models. These trends will be monitored over the next couple of days.
It is still very unclear exactly which track Alex will take once in the Gulf. Once Alex is in the Gulf, everything should become much clearer. Based on what I've seen, it seems that the official track may be very close to what will actually happen. I do believe it will be a close call on an actual U.S. landfall. It is possible that South Texas could be in the line of fire with Alex. I believe it will feel a bit of a nudge from the weakness that develops, but it should still steer clear of our area. The official NHC track was shifted a bit to the right (NE) on their last full update, but this was basically because of the storm moving more to the right of the official forecast track over the last 12 hours. I believe Alex will indeed make landfall as a hurricane sometime between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, and it could be stronger than currently forecast. I believe it may be bordering on category 2 strength by the time it reaches the coast of Northern Mexico. The cone of error is still quite large beyond 3 days, and it has been shifted a bit further North on the last advisory. It includes South Texas once again. If Alex were to become a hurricane before the end of the month it certainly wouldn't be the first time there's been a hurricane in June. However, Alex should remain a far cry from the most intense June hurricane on record, Hurricane Audrey. Today marks 53 years since the category 4 storm made landfall near Cameron. It was the deadliest storm in SW Louisiana history. It was the benchmark storm for our area until Hurricane Rita, 5 years ago. For now, we just watch and wait to see what will transpire with Alex, enjoy the rest of the weekend. The other unknown continues to be how the oil will behave with a hurricane in the Gulf. Stay tuned!
That's all for this update. The next complete update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL will be issued at 4a.m. CDT. My next update will be between 10-11a.m. this morning.
Have a great Sunday & God bless!
-DM-
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