SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...This time of year it is sometimes boring in the world of weather around these parts, because it is essentially the same thing every day. We have to find ways to be creative to say the same thing in a different way. I'll give it a shot, so let's see how it goes! Thursday's forecast was right on track. It was another atrociously hot day with maxes running in the mid 90s on average with some upper 90s at well inland reporting stations. Shower and thunderstorm activity was limited, and the closest thing resembling rain to our area were a couple of storms over Acadiana, and in Upper SE Texas near Jasper. The rest of us got the short end of the stick once again. The reason for this is the much advertised upper ridge which is re-building across the NW Gulf of Mexico. It will only strengthen and make matters worse as we head into the weekend. For the short term, tonight and Friday will continue to feature quiet weather. Muggy and clear conditions are expected overnight. The mosquitoes will have a party in this weather. Overnight minimums will reminiscent of the previous nights with mid to upper 70s for most. Friday will be another scorcher...try the fry an egg on the pavement experiment! The ridge will continue strengthening across the area, and suppression will be at a maximum with virtually no chance of any afternoon shower or storm. Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies are expected and afternoon highs will respond as well reaching the mid to upper 90s with isolated readings near 100 likely in the northernmost locations furthest removed from the Gulf. There won't be much relief in the form of a breeze either as the upper ridge and surface high in control act to regulate the movement of air over the area. A light S to SW breeze up to 10 mph is to be expected Friday. Friday night conditions will be nearly a carbon copy once again.
Father's Day weekend is shaping up dry, but unfortunately very hot. If anything, it will be a degree or two hotter on Saturday than it will be on Friday. This means that it will be in the upper 90s on average with many other locations eclipsing the century mark...an' Boudreaux say "ay yi yi, dat's hot, sha"! Rain, that's a no-go with the high firmly entrenched over the area. Heat indices will certainly approach if not eclipse the danger zone of 105, and likely be approaching heat advisory criteria of 108. Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies are expected for Saturday. Sunday, of course, is Father's Day, and I hope you let dad be the one that sits closest to the A/C because conditions won't be much better. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s on average once again with many locales exceeding 100 once again. The only rain around will be if you turn on your sprinkler because the ridge will certainly act as an atmospheric suppressant. Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies will once again rule the roost. It will certainly be dry and Mother Nature will cooperate for any weekend plans you have, just remember to use extreme caution when out and about. Certainly remember to use sunscreen and drink plenty of liquids (mainly water) to keep yourself hydrated. The quiet and hot weather will dominate the weekend forecast. We look to next week to see if there's any relief!
The ridge is forecast to weaken some as we get into next week. This should begin to change things a bit on Monday, the first official day of summer aka the Summer Solstice. As the ridge begins to loosen its grip on the area this should allow for the return of some scattered afternoon convection mainly via the sea breeze. The persistent onshore flow will continue, and that is what helps generate the sea breeze because water temperatures are cooler than land temperatures. It is these air mass thunderstorms that provide the much needed relief from the heat, and much needed rainfall for the year this time of year. Hopefully, the models will be correct and the ridge will indeed break down or shift enough to give us our much needed rainfall. Of course, not everyone will get rainfall on a given day, and Monday it will only be a lucky few that do with chances standing at 20%. Better chances arise in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame with coverage at around 30% each day with some possibility of nearly 40% coverage one or two of those days. Day to day variations in the small scale pattern will dictate that, and this will be re-assessed next week as we get closer. Bottom line, there will be better opportunities for some much needed rain next week. Over the course of a given week in a normal summer pattern, the rainfall should be balanced out (evenly distributed) over the entire area. Each day Monday-Thursday will offer Partly Cloudy skies and of course a continuation of the already hot temperatures in place. However, with the rain chances returning to the forecast and the increased possibility of sea breeze activity temperatures will cool down a few degrees, but only to about normal values for the mid-late June period with low to mid 90s expected area wide. Heat indices will continue to exceed 100 area wide. Areas that receive a direct hit from one of the afternoon storms could receive an inch or so of rainfall from Tuesday-Thursday. Any storms on Monday will likely still be very isolated and small in nature as the ridge begins to weaken, but remains strong enough to keep activity in the slight category. In the extended, a typical summer pattern will exist through the end of June with the usual day to day variations occurring. Models do indicate better opportunities for afternoon convection towards the 1st of July, so hopefully that will come to fruition. July is the wettest month of the year around these parts, and we certainly need all the rain we can get to alleviate the ongoing drought conditions. Unfortunately, during the summer months, when drought conditions prevail, it often takes a tropical system to eliminate said drought conditions. We certainly don't want to endure a tropical entity at any point, so hopefully we will find some other way to end the drought. We'll see what transpires!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 77/96 76/98 77/97 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 77/96 77/98 76/97 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 77/97 77/98 77/98 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 74/99 75/100 75/100 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 74/99 75/100 75/99 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 78/95 77/95 78/96 0 0 0 0 0 0
Today...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy and Very Hot. High 96. South wind 10 mph.
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny and Very Hot. High 98. SSW wind 10 mph.
Saturday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 77. Light South wind.
Father's Day...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny and Very Hot. High 97. SSW wind 10 mph.
Friday 6/18/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear, Humid
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 5
H.I.: 93
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8
H.I.: 100
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny, Very Hot
Temp: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 105
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny, Hot
Temp: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 7
H.I.: 103
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 3
H.I.: 90
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
6-18-10
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 102-107
Saturday
6-19-10
Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 103-108
Sunday
6-20-10
Father's Day
Low: 77
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 102-107
Monday
6-21-10
Summer Solstice
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Tuesday
6-22-10
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Wednesday
6-23-10
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Thursday
6-24-10
Low: 77
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105o
...Tropical Update...
The tropical wave I've discussed all week won't give up the ghost! I thought last night would be the last time I'd mention it, but wouldn't you know it, it still garners some mention tonight. The tropical wave was losing its identity 24 hours ago with the low-level circulation exposed to the left of the main convection, however, some re-organization occurred during the day Thursday. The tropical low has been fighting off some wind shear that is currently present over the Eastern Atlantic and Caribbean. The system shows signs of life tonight, and is trying to get better organized. Squally weather with showers and embedded thunderstorms and breezy conditions will overspread the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The strong upper level winds over the top of the system will continue to keep the system poorly organized. Some slow development is possible over the next couple of days as the tropical low continues to move WNW around 15 mph. On this track, the low will move over the Northern Lesser Antilles Friday and head in the general direction of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola this weekend. The National Hurricane Center currently puts the possibility of development of this system at about 20%. Forecast models hold onto the system into next week, so this system will continue to be monitored.
Elsewhere in the tropics, all is quiet in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday. On the Pacific side, the second named storm of the season has formed. Tropical Storm Blas is moving away from mainland Mexico, and will pass safely to the South of Acapulco. It is forecast to remain a tropical storm through the weekend, before weakening early next week as it feels the effects of some cooler SSTs in the Eastern Pacific.
....Marine Forecast...
Today...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Saturday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Isolated showers.
Sunday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 1:54a.m. 3:21p.m.
High: 9:00a.m. 9:38p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.18'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Low: 76
Normal Low: 72
Record Low: 51-1917
High: 96
Normal High: 89
Record High: 101-1909
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.59"
Normal Month to Date: 3.54"
Year to Date: 13.39"
Normal Year to Date: 25.58"
Record: 3.04"-1987
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 73
High: 94
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 86
Rain: 0.88"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:11a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 8:17p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Saturday June 19
Full Moon- Saturday May 26
Last Quarter- Sunday July 4 (Independence Day)
New Moon- Sunday July 11
Have a Great Friday, God Bless, & until next time May Even Your Cloudy Days Be Filled With Sunshine!
-DM-
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