Alex About to Make Landfall in Extreme Northeast Mexico...

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Tropical Weather Discussion...Alex is nearing his landfall point in NE Mexico, and that's a good thing of course. He has been strengthening at a fairly significant pace this afternoon and evening, and if he wasn't about to run out of real estate, we most likely would be looking at a major hurricane at landfall. As it is, a category 2 storm is still quite a formidable hurricane. This will be my last full update and discussion Alex since landfall will be occurring within the next couple of hours. A bit of a historical note here, Alex is the first June hurricane in the Atlantic Basin since Allison in June 1995. The latest advisory on Hurricane Alex follows.

Hurricane Alex Advisory

...Season's first hurricane, category 2 storm, Alex, to make landfall shortly just South of the Rio Grande...South Texas to experience strong Tropical Storm conditions...

8p.m. CDT, Tuesday, June 30, 2010

Latitude:  24.3 N

Longitude: 97.5 W

This position is near the coast of NE Mexico, about 40 miles NNE of La Pesca, Mexico and 110 miles S of Brownsville, Texas. The eye of Alex is about 15 miles from the closest point on the coast of NE Mexico.

Winds: 100 mph w/ higher gusts. Alex is a strong category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Alex has been in a steady state strengthening phase this evening, but the storm is just about as strong as its going to get because it will be making landfall shortly. This will end any chance of further strengthening because Alex will be out of contact with the warm Gulf waters. Weakening will begin shortly after landfall. Alex will dissipate over Mexico by the weekend. Alex is a large tropical cyclone, and hurricane force winds now extend outward to 70 miles from the center of circulation, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 205 miles from the center primarily on the NE side.

Movement: W or 270 degrees @ 10 mph. Alex's forward speed has slowed a bit as it approaches landfall. The general Westward motion will continue over the next few days. Some fluctuations in forward speed are possible as the storm spins down over the mountains of Northern Mexico. On the current track, the eye of Alex will make landfall in the next hour or so. The storm will travel a route parallel to the Rio Grande until it spins down by the weekend.

Minimum Central Pressure: 27.99" or 948 mb. This pressure is actually equivalent of a strong category 3 or low end category 4 storm, thankfully the winds never caught up to the pressure or Alex would have been much stronger.

Watches/Warnings...No changes to the ongoing watches and warnings for Texas and Mexico. The Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Baffin Bay, Texas to La Cruz, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect on either side of the Hurricane Warning from Baffin Bay, Texas to Port O'Connor, Texas and from La Cruz, Mexico to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning will likely be changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
later tonight as Alex begins to weaken after landfall.

Rainfall...Rainfall accumulations of 6-12" are expected across Deep South Texas and Northern Mexico. Isolated amounts of 20" are possible in these areas. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides especially in mountainous areas. Closer to home, rainfall totals of additional 2-4" are expected through Friday with the far outer rain bands of Hurricane Alex. Some localized flooding is possible.

Storm Surge...A dangerous water rise is expected along and to the North of the eye. Surge levels of 4-6' are expected along the coast. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Closer to home once again, tide levels will remain high with tides running about 2' above normal. Some minor coastal flooding is expected through Thursday. The strong South winds will cause some tidal backup into the lower end of area rivers.

Wind...Hurricane force and tropical storm force winds have reached the coastline of South Texas and Northeast Mexico. Across our area, occasional gusts to near 30 mph will be possible through Thursday in the passing squalls. The hurricane and tropical storm force winds will gradually diminish across the strike zone after the storm makes landfall.

Tornadoes...Isolated tornadoes are expected across Northeast Mexico and Deep South Texas through Thursday.

Discussion...This will be my last full update on Alex since the storm is at landfall. Alex will certainly go down as a notable June storm. The pressure almost equals that of Hurricane Audrey for the lowest recorded pressure ever for an Atlantic Basin hurricane in the month of June. It is also the first June hurricane since Allison 1995, not to be confused with 2 very wet Tropical Storm Allisons in 1989 and 2001 which led to memorable flood events. Alex is going to make landfall in a sparsely populated area of NE Mexico, so most of the worst of the winds and surge will be in this area...some good news. Certainly, Alex will provide for a decent blow to Deep South Texas with strong tropical storm conditions. South Padre Island has been evacuated at a prime tourist time. The biggest impacts for the U.S. will be heavy rains and potential freshwater flooding as Alex continues to move inland and spin down over the next few days. A deep surge of tropical moisture will continue to rotate into land areas from the Gulf of Mexico with rain bands far reaching from the center of circulation. Rain bands from Alex have extended as far East as the Panhandle of Florida at times. The potential for catastrophic flooding exists over the mountains of Mexico including the Monterrey area. With landfall imminent, model data is essentially no longer needed at least for trying to figure out a landfall location. There is still some question about the future of Alex as it decays. Some models suggest it will slow down or stall out producing prolific rainfall totals in the Rio Grande region, while other suggests a steady movement off to the W or WNW leading to its eventual death over the mountains of Mexico. Alex is being steered around the periphery of a large ridge of high pressure to its NE. For now, the official forecast will depict a steady Westward progression with the storm totally decaying by the weekend.

The impacts of Alex on our area are already being felt with the off and on squalls, showers, and occasional thunderstorms. This will continue through Friday, although conditions will begin improving by Friday as Alex moves further inland and further away from our area. Minor coastal flooding and occasional gusts of wind to near 30 mph in the strongest squalls will be about the extent of the effects here. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a Flash Flood Watch remain in effect for our area. The Flash Flood Watch is for areas and along and South of the I-10 corridor. Rainfall totals by week's end should be on the average of 4" with totals of over 6" possible in isolated locales. The highest totals for the storm will come near the coast and over the coastal waters, and locations further North will see the smallest amounts. The eye of Alex is visible on the Brownsville (KBRO) radar, and this will be used in determining exactly when landfall occurs. I will attach links for the KBRO radar and a visible satellite image in motion, so you can watch the storm move inland.

Alex Visible Satellite

Brownsville, Texas Radar

That's all for now. I will post information on Alex for the next couple of days until the storm is officially declared dead. The National Hurricane Center's next update will be at 10p.m. CDT. Landfall has just occurred around 9p.m. with 105 mph winds near the municipality of Soto La Marina in NE Mexico. Please check back shortly for the regular forecast discussion, including the all important 4th of July weekend forecast. The blog will remain in storm mode through Friday.


Have a good evening and God bless!
-DM-

Rain Bands from Alex to Make for a Wet Mid-Week Forecast...

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Good morning. Can you believe it's the last day of June, and the last day of the first half of the year? 2010 is flying by. This week is flying by, yet it has seemed so long already with the extensive coverage of newly upgraded Hurricane Alex in the Gulf. Alex has been and will continue to be the weather story for the next couple of days. He will have an impact on our weather here in SW Louisiana, but we will certainly dodge the bullet escaping the brunt of the storm. The specifics of what kind of weather we can expect and when are to be highlighted in this blog. For the most up to date information on Hurricane Alex see the preceding blog.

The rich tropical air mass associated with Alex is in place, and a large rain shield associated with Hurricane Alex is creeping towards the coast early this Wednesday morning. This will change the weather across the forecast area today when compared to the first half of the work week. Activity has been strictly on a scattered basis thus far this week, but with Alex advancing towards the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas and Northeast Mexico the stage is set for numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms today. Rain will be off and on throughout the day today, and it will be in the likely category for the entire forecast area. Although, in this situation the rain chances will certainly be highest at the coast, and lowest at the far inland areas of the forecast area. Rain chances at the coast will nearly be maxed out, while they will be tapered downward to near 60% across the extreme north. Considering this, we take the average to create a rainfall chance for the day. This stands at a healthy 80%, and the occasional squalls will produce periods of heavy rain. Some localized flooding can't be ruled out, thus the National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the Southern half of the forecast area. This includes all parishes and counties along and South of I-10. Rainfall totals could exceed 2" today in some areas, but will average 1-2" area wide. Mostly Cloudy skies are expected with the advancement of the large cloud mass associated with Alex moving over the area. This cloud cover along with the high likelihood of rainfall will keep temperatures down several categories from what has been experienced lately. In fact, high temperatures will be hard pressed to even reach normal values. A maximum in the upper 80s shall suffice. In this situation, rainfall is not limited to the afternoon hours, but this is the time when the chance of getting wet will certainly be at its highest point due to the added effects of daytime heating in the rich, tropical air mass. This rich, tropical air mass is conducive for rainfall to occur at any point during the day, and pinpointing exactly when it may rain at your location is near impossible. It just depends on the movement of the outer rain bands. Alex will be making landfall sometime tonight most likely in South Texas or Northeast Mexico, and the slug of moisture on its East side will continue to be pumped into our area. Therefore, rain chances will remain in the likely category for tonight as well. The only other effect from Alex on our area worth mentioning is an increase in surface winds. A long fetch SE flow will develop around the circulation from Alex, and winds will be on the order of 20-30 mph at times especially in squalls. Also adding to the complexity of the forecast is a weakening and stalled frontal boundary to our North. This is the same front that I first mentioned last week, that some models had suggested would push through and give us a breath of fresh air for the 4th of July, but because of Alex this front will not make it through. It will undergo frontlysis (dissipation) to our North. However, with the boundary still in the vicinity, other areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur. Throw that into the equation and it certainly spells a wet end to the month of June.

Alex moves inland and begins to decay Thursday, but the rains from Alex will continue thanks to the large slug of moisture over the Gulf. Therefore, rain chances remain very high for Thursday, although they should be a bit less than that of today. Another 1-2" of rainfall on average is expected Thursday, but again some areas could see as much as 4". It all hinges on the final movement of Alex, and the progression of his outer rain bands. Either way, our weather is certainly going to be much better than it will be for the folks in South Texas. The rainfall will be beneficial for our area as we remain in moderate drought conditions. The Flash Flood Watch and Coastal Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning based on the current forecast from the NHC on the official track of Alex. The continued high likelihood of rain, and generally Mostly Cloudy skies will keep temperatures down somewhat into the upper 80s once again. For the same period, morning lows will be very warm as well in this soupy atmosphere. The minimums will struggle to fall below the 80 degree threshold. Upper 70s seems reasonable in this atmosphere. The winds will begin to decrease somewhat as the storm spins down inland over Mexico or West Texas. Slow improvement is likely the best way to describe the progression of this forecast. Rain chances will continue on the high side for the Thursday night period as well, but slowly decrease in response to the decaying Alex. The decaying boundary will not as much of a factor across the area on Thursday, but could still conjure up additional storm development across parts of the forecast area.

Friday-4th of July weekend...Friday starts the improvement of our weather just in time for the holiday weekend. Deep tropical moisture will still be in place, and will be slow to leave with no boundary to come through and shear it out. As such, the decaying Alex combined with daytime heating will again produce rain chances in the likely category. However, the rainfall should not be near as widespread as it will be for the next couple of days as we start to transition back to the typical summer pattern. High temperatures will respond as well with more in the way of sunshine expected.  Expect maximums to reach to near 90 or just above. By the weekend itself, Alex will be fast, fading memory, and we will be working our way back to a normal summer regime. The deep tropical moisture will be very slow to leave, and without any boundary to push it out of here coming down anytime soon, we will be hard pressed to get rid of it entirely. Thus, a continued chance of scattered showers and storms is expected for both Saturday and Sunday. As we try to complete the transition from a tropical system to a typical summer style regime, rain chances will decrease incremently each day. Saturday will be more likely to see rain as opposed to Sunday, the 4th itself. Saturday's coverage stands at about 40% while values near climatology are expected for Sunday at 30%. Temperatures will also respond with plenty more sunshine especially in the morning before the sea breeze and all the usual malarky that goes on. Expect highs to range from the low to mid 90s area wide, while morning lows will range in the mid to upper 70s. This forecast is not really much different at all compared to last night's forecast package. Of course, there is a plethora of events activities this weekend as we celebrate our Independence. While there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, I certainly wouldn't cancel any 4th of July plans you may have. Just be aware that you may have to slightly alter them for a bit should a scattered storm move in your general direction.

Monday-Tuesday...The end of the forecast period, and the extra weekend day for most should be fairly uneventful. The new week should start on a much quieter note than this week did. Both Monday and Tuesday offer continued opportunities for scattered afternoon sea breeze shower and thunderstorm activity, but nothing out of the ordinary for July. July is the wettest month of the year in SW Louisiana, and we shall see if July 2010 will live up to that moniker. The controlling upper level ridge that has dominated the weather for the most part around here this summer should remain further out West where it belongs, to allow us to feel more of an influence from the persistent Bermuda high in the Western Atlantic and over the SE U.S. This will keep us in a favorable synoptic set up for the scattered afternoon storms Monday and Tuesday. You know how it is, there's no way to pinpoint exactly who will receive a nice cooling present from Mother Nature, and who will be left to burn to a crisp in the hot July sun. It's all about being in the right place at the right time, but at least it's no tropical system. The temperature scheme for the end of the forecast period is one that we've seen all too often as well. Morning lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s, while the early July maximums will try to trend above normal once again with the average rain chances in place. Expect the maximums for the end of the forecast period to be in the low to mid 90s each day. Model data hints at more of the same weather beyond this forecast period barring any tropical turmoil which may churn up along the way. Models do hint at some tropical activity over the first couple weeks of July, but this is just speculation at this point, and we must look for and recognize any trends or definitive patterns before trying to pound out any specifics. We should also get rid of Alex before discussing that idea.  In closing, here's one bit a climatology for you...Alex is first Atlantic tropical system in 15 years (1995) to become a hurricane in June.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  78/88  79/88  77/91  60 80 60 70 40 60
LFT   77/88  78/89  77/92  60 80 60 70 40 60
BPT   78/87  79/88  78/90  60 80 70 80 50 60
AEX  75/91  76/90  75/93  40 70 40 60 40 50
POE  75/90  76/91  75/93  40 70 40 60 40 50
ARA  79/87  78/88  78/90  70 80 60 70 40 60


*Flash Flood Watch in effect through Thursday morning.*

*Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until Thursday morning.*

Today...Cloudy with tropical rains likely. Rain heavy at times. 1-2" of rain possible. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.

Tonight...Cloudy with off and on tropical rain likely. Rain heavy at times. An additional 1" of rain possible. Low 79. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Continued Cloudy with off and on tropical rain likely. Rain heavy at times. 1-2" of additional rainfall expected. High 88. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.

Thursday Night...Cloudy with scattered tropical rain. Low 77. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.


Drew's 7 Day Forecast


Wednesday
6-30-10

Low: 78
High: 88
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 92-97

Thursday
7-1-10

Low: 79
High: 88
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-25
H.I.: 92-97


Friday
7-2-10

Low: 77
High: 91
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100


Saturday
7-3-10

Low: 76
High: 92
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103


Sunday
7-4-10

Independence Day...Happy Birthday America

Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105


Monday
7-5-10

Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105


Tuesday
7-6-10

Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105


...Tropical Update...

See the preceding post for the latest on the season's first hurricane, Alex. Alex will make landfall well to our SW along the coast of South Texas or NE Mexico later tonight or early Thursday. Elsewhere, in the tropics all is quiet for the time being.


...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday evening.*

High seas and large swells will prevail over the coastal waters in response to the circulation around Hurricane Alex.

Today...East winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Good night and God bless! Have a great Wednesday, & until next time may even your cloudy days be filled with sunshine!

-DM-

Alex Becomes Season's First Hurricane...No Change in Future Track...

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tropical Weather Discussion...As expected Alex has obtained hurricane status, that's really no surprise. It appears tonight that Alex will not be throwing any surprise party by moving off course. Everything is right on track with the previous forecast laid out. Here are the latest specifics as of 10p.m.

Hurricane Alex Advisory...

Alex now the season's first hurricane...no real changes to the forecast track...landfall expected Wednesday night in the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas or Northeast Mexico...heavy rains expected across our area for the next couple of days...

10p.m. CDT Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Latitude:     23.1 N

Longitude:  94.8 W

This position is about 195 miles ESE of La Pesca, Mexico and 255 miles SE of Brownsville, Texas.

Winds: 75 mph w/ higher gusts. This makes Alex the season's first hurricane, and a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 15 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward to 175 miles from the center. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday before Alex makes landfall Wednesday night. Alex will likely continue to slowly strengthening until landfall.

Movement: West or 280 degrees @ 9 mph. This nearly due Westward is believed to be temporary, and Alex should resume a more WNW to NW motion overnight. A general WNW direction is expected for the next 24-48 hours, and on this track Hurricane Alex will approach the Gulf coastline of South Texas and Northeast Mexico Wednesday, and make landfall Wednesday night in the hurricane warning area.

Minimum Central Pressure: 28.73" or 973 mb.

Watches/Warnings...There is no change to the Hurricane Warning which was issued Monday night. It remains in effect from Baffin Bay, Texas to La Cruz, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Baffin Bay, Texas to Port O'Connor, Texas. As of the 4p.m. advisory, the government of Mexico has issued  a Tropical Storm Warning from La Cruz to Cabo Rojo.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the watch area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the first occurrence of tropical storm force winds are expected to occur. These are the conditions that make outdoor preparations dangerous and difficult.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere in the warning area within 36 hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coastline in the hurricane warning area by Wednesday morning. These winds will make outdoor preparations dangerous, and persons in the warning area need to complete protection of life and property by this time.

Rainfall...Alex should produce 6-12" of rain across the Lower Rio Grande Valley of NE Mexico and S Texas. Isolated amounts of 20" are possible in these locations. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainbands from Alex are already spreading onshore in the strike region. Alex is a large tropical cyclone, and his rainbands are far reaching. The rainbands extend along the Northern Gulf coast from Florida to Texas, and in these areas far away from the brunt of the storm, rainfall totals will generally be 2-4" with isolated amounts in excess of 6". Some flash flooding will be possible through Friday.

Storm Surge...Storm surge values of 3-5' are expected near and to the North of the center. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves along the coast. A 1-2' rise in tides is expected along the coastline of SE Texas and SW Louisiana. This will lead to minor coastal flooding with tidal backup occurring at the lower end of area rivers as well.

Tornadoes...Isolated tornadoes are expected across South Texas and Northeast Mexico close to the center of circulation on Wednesday and Thursday. An isolated tornado or two could occur in the outermost rain bands which will rotate through the forecast area over the next couple of days, but the tornado threat here seems minimal at this time.

Discussion...Recon data is trickling in tonight, and as expected Alex is indeed the season's first hurricane. Alex is showing signs of continued organization and strengthening tonight, and since the storm is in a low-shear environment and there is nothing to act as an impediment over the Gulf, Alex is forecast to continue strengthening through the night and through the day on Wednesday. It is possible that Alex will reach category 2 status before making landfall on either side of the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday night. The current forecast doesn't depict that Alex will reach category 2 status, however it does reflect a strong category 1 with winds 90-95 mph. Landfall is about 24 hours away, give or take a few hours depending on how Alex moves at the coast. The models are all clustered over the Rio Grande region, and there is absolutely no reason to deviate from the forecast laid out by the NHC. They have done a great job forecasting this storm. Alex is being steered around the periphery of an anti-cyclone that is currently in place over the Central United States. Alex has wobbled Westward over the past few hours, but the resumption of a general WNW track is expected later tonight and Wednesday. The forward speed may also slow just a little bit, but Alex should continue to be steered by the anti-cyclone in the nation's mid-section. Alex is a large tropical cyclone, and his effects will be felt over a large area.

It is so important to not just focus on the center line that is the forecast track. The rainbands from Alex are already moving onshore in the strike zone, and this will continue through the night and conditions will progressively worsen in these areas on Wednesday. Across our area, the outer rainbands from Alex will influence the weather over the next couple of days. Other than periods of heavy rain and squalls, and an increase in tides along the coast the effects of Alex will be minimal in SW Louisiana and SE Texas. Rainfall amounts of 2-4" area wide are expected through Friday with isolated higher amounts over 6" possible especially near the coast. A long fetch onshore flow will develop as well on the NE side of the circulation. Winds will be gusty in 20-30 mph range at times especially in squalls. The expected heavy rain could lead to some localized flooding, and as a result the National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a Flash Flood Watch in effect through Thursday morning for the parishes and counties along and South of the I-10 corridor. A Coastal Flood Watch also remains in effect through Thursday for the anticipation of coastal flooding due to the strong onshore flow. While far removed from the main circulation of Alex, an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out across the forecast area especially in the strongest squalls and rainbands near the coast. The threat for heavy rain will gradually taper off by the weekend as Alex spins down over the mountains of Mexico.

The question still remains how the path of Alex will affect the oil spill. It is likely that the strong South wind will drive more oil towards the Louisiana coast, and with a SE wind across our area some of the oil could move closer to our area. However, it is not clear if any of the oil will reach SW Louisiana at this time. The cleanup and repair operations will have to be ceased because of the strong winds and seas. The strong waves and seas over the Gulf will stir up the oil slick, and disperse it over a wider portion of the Gulf. The oil will not simply just dissolve or disburse. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to what exactly will happen.

That's all for this update. The National Hurricane Center issue an intermediate advisory at 1a.m. CDT Wednesday, followed by the next complete advisory at 4a.m. My next update on Alex will be Wednesday morning. I will have a regular forecast discussion posted in an hour or two.

Have a great Tuesday night and God bless!
-DM-

The Latest on Tropical Storm Alex...

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tropical Weather Discussion...Alex continues his Southern Gulf journey on this Tuesday afternoon. He is slowly strengthening this afternoon, and seems poised to reach hurricane status tonight. It's time to give you all the latest specifics on Alex.

Tropical Storm Alex Advisory

Alex slowly strengthening...likely to become season's first hurricane tonight...forecast right on track...

4p.m. CDT Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Latitude: 23.2 N

Longitude: 94.0 W

This places the center of circulation of Alex about 245 miles E of La Pesca, Mexico and 290 miles SE of Brownsville, Texas.

Winds: 70 mph with higher gusts. Satellite imagery indicates that Alex is becoming better organized, and a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will investigate the system shortly. Alex will likely be upgraded to a category 1 hurricane this evening. Continued strengthening is expected until landfall Wednesday night. Tropical Storm force winds now extend outward to 175 miles from the center of circulation.

Movement: NW or 310 degrees @ 13 mph. This motion should continue tonight, before a gradual turn to the WNW and W occurs Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some reduction in forward speed is also expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Alex will be approaching the Gulf Coast of Northeastern Mexico and Southern Texas on Wednesday. Landfall will occur Wednesday night in the hurricane warning area.

Pressure: 28.97" or 981 mb.

Watches/Warnings...There is no change to the Hurricane Warning which was issued Monday night. It remains in effect from Baffin Bay, Texas to La Cruz, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Baffin Bay, Texas to Port O'Connor, Texas. As of the 4p.m. advisory, the government of Mexico has issued  a Tropical Storm Warning from La Cruz to Cabo Rojo.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the watch area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the first occurrence of tropical storm force winds are expected to occur. These are the conditions that make outdoor preparations dangerous and difficult.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere in the warning area within 36 hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coastline in the hurricane warning area by Wednesday morning. These winds will make outdoor preparations dangerous, and persons in the warning area need to complete protection of life and property by this time.

Rainfall...Alex should produce 6-12" of rain across the Lower Rio Grande Valley of NE Mexico and S Texas. Isolated amounts of 20" are possible in these locations. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainbands from Alex are already spreading onshore in the strike region. Alex is a large tropical cyclone, and his rainbands are far reaching. The rainbands extend along the Northern Gulf coast from Florida to Texas, and in these areas far away from the brunt of the storm, rainfall totals will generally be 2-4" with isolated amounts in excess of 6". Some flash flooding will be possible through Friday.

Storm Surge...Storm surge values of 3-5' are expected near and to the North of the center. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves along the coast.

Discussion...We are getting within the 24 hour window before landfall on this Tuesday evening. Alex is behaving quite nicely as far as the expected forecast track. It has been reluctant to develop further today, but it is getting more organized at this time. It will likely be a hurricane on the next advisory as an Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is en route to investigate the system. Alex is being steered around a strong anti-cyclone over the Great Plains and Mid West. The environment over the Gulf continues to be very supportive for additional development, and there is no reason why Alex won't continue to strengthen through Wednesday. Alex is forecast to be a category 1 at landfall, but if it can strengthen at a more rapid pace before landfall category 2 status isn't out of the question. Landfall should occur Wednesday night or early Thursday if the storm slows down a bit more than expected. Landfall will be right in line with the official forecast track, but wobbles one way or the other will determine which side of the Rio Grande Alex will make landfall on. I will stick with the idea of a landfall on the U.S. side of the Rio Grande, although the official track suggests a landfall just across the Rio Grande in NE Mexico. All model guidance is clustered in this region, and the models are generally very close to where landfall will ultimately occur within 24 hours or so, so again there is no reason to deviate from previous forecasts.

Forecast confidence is high concerning where landfall will be, and no matter which side of the Rio Grande Alex makes his landfall, the effects on SW Louisiana will be the same. Rainfall will be the main weather story around our part of the world. 2-5" of rainfall is expected through Thursday for most areas, with isolated amounts in excess of 6" possible. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued through Thursday morning by the National Weather Service in anticipation of some heavy rainfall associated with Alex. This flood watch is for parishes and counties along and south of I-10. Minor coastal flooding is also possible along the coast, but it should not be a major issue. Winds will pick up a bit, and a long fetch of SE winds is expected. Winds will be on the order of 20-25 mph at times especially in squalls, but other than that no major issues across the forecast area, mostly just some tropical rains.

That's all for this update. The next intermediate advisory by the National Hurricane Center will be issued at 7p.m. followed by the next complete advisory at 10p.m. My next Alex update will follow the 10p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. Also, look for the detailed regular forecast discussion later tonight as well. It will detail the effects from Alex across our area.


Have a good evening & God bless!
-DM-

Alex Strengthening Once Again...Moving Slowly North...

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tropical Weather Discussion...Alex is nearing hurricane strength early this morning. It is poised to become the season's first hurricane later today. We still have many questions to answer in regards to Alex, so without further adieu, here goes...


Tropical Storm Alex

1a.m. CDT Tuesday, June 29, 2010

...Alex Slowly Strengthening...Approaching Hurricane Strength...Aimed at South Texas or North Mexico later this week...

Latitude:    21.4 N

Longitude: 91.8 W

This is about 415 miles ESE of La Pesca, Mexico and 475 miles SE of Brownsville, Texas.

Winds: 65 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected today, and this should bring Alex to category 1 hurricane status sometime later today. The tropical storm force winds now extend outward to 80 miles from the center of circulation. The wind field will continue to expand as the storm intensifies. Alex is forecast to make landfall as a hurricane Thursday.

Movement: NNW or 340 degrees @ 8 mph. This general motion should continue this morning, but a turn to the NW is expected later today followed by a WNW turn on Wednesday. On this track, Alex will approach the Gulf coast in the hurricane warning area Thursday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.09" or 985 mb.

Watches/Warnings...The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. It remains in effect for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas from La Cruz to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on the U.S./Mexico border & from the U.S./Mexico border to Baffin Bay, Texas. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the watch area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the first occurrence of tropical storm force winds are expected to occur. These are the conditions that make outdoor preparations dangerous and difficult.

The Tropical Storm Watch issued Monday afternoon has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Texas from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area generally within 36 hours. Depending on the future track of Alex, watches and warnings could be extended further up the Texas coast.

Rainfall...Heavy rains are expected across Southern Texas and Northern Mexico are expected to be in the 5-10" with isolated higher amounts for the next few days. Rain will occur across much of the Gulf Coast for the next few days, and rainfall totals in our area could be on the order of 2-5" with isolated higher amounts over 6" through Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coastline on Wednesday while hurricane conditions approach the coast at the same time.

Storm surge...A storm surge of 3-5' above ground level along the immediate coast. This will occur near and to the North of the center of circulation. Near the coast the storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Discussion...Alex moved little Monday evening, but is showing signs of being on the move again early this morning. Alex's strengthening was also briefly hampered by some shear to the North of the storm over the Gulf waters, however, this brief period of shear has lifted out and the strengthening process is resuming. The NHC has raised the winds on the last full update at 10p.m. Monday to 65 mph. Alex is nearing hurricane strength, and it will likely achieve such dubious status later today. Alex's motion has been almost due North tonight, but as new steering currents are established a better motion will be noted. Alex should move between NNW and NW today, before bending back to the NW and WNW by Wednesday. The storm is responding to a weakness which has developed in the wake of an eroding ridge over the Gulf coast. This weakness has nudged Alex to the North this morning. A secondary ridge is forecast to develop over the Great Plains and Mid West later this week. It appears as though this ridge may be strong enough by that time to steer Alex back to the West. The model consistency early this morning is almost as good as it has been since the storm's inception Friday. Models are clustered generally in the Rio Grande region. Some are on the Texas side, while others are on the Mexican side, but the consensus is the Rio Grande. The official forecast track calls for landfall to occur just South of the U.S./Mexico border Thursday. I will stick with the NHC's official forecast track for now, though I still believe a U.S. landfall will occur. I believe this will occur between KBRO (Brownsville) and KCRP (Corpus Christi). I believe the storm will travel a bit further North than expected.

The intensity forecast remains a bit uncertain. While it seems inevitable that Alex will achieve hurricane status later today, there is still much deliberation as to how strong he will be at landfall. Many of the models even show the storm not reaching hurricane status at all. The current forecast suggests Alex will be a category 1 storm at landfall Thursday. A category 2 seems feasible as well especially if Alex moves at a slower pace than faster, and has more time to feed off the Gulf. A track further North closer to SW Louisiana would likely also mean a stronger storm, and would certainly increase the threat to our area. The effects that I have been mentioning for the last couple of days remain in tact. The effects should be minimal with increase rain chances across the area through Friday. A long fetch onshore flow will also continue, and as the low deepens the winds will increase over the marine zones. It is possible that some storm surge will occur across our area mainly for the immediate coast. The long fetch onshore flow around the cyclonic flow will result in tidal backup and an increase in seas along the coast. Storm surge of 2-3' is expected. Large and dangerous swells will be felt at the coast. It is unclear how a storm on this track will effect the oil spill zone. All we can do is hope and pray for the best.

While it appears at this time, that the storm is not aimed for SW Louisiana, all are encouraged to keep a watchful eye because at this time, the storm is in situation where either scenario of a more Westward track or to the North can play out. It is not prudent to assume that we are out of the woods just yet. I also stress that it is important to remember that the black line displaying the official storm track is not the only thing to focus on. The storm covers a much wider area than the skinny black line, and it is true that on this track the worst of the weather would bypass SW Louisiana. However, with the position of the center of circulation it is inevitable that we will see some effects. Anything to the right of the center is subject to some adverse weather in a tropical system, especially when one is as large as Alex currently is. The overwhelming consistency with the models this morning increasing the forecast confidence just a bit, although there is still plenty of uncertainty. All eyes should remain on the Gulf until further notice. I won't give the all clear on this one, until it is safely inland during the latter half of the week.

That's all for this update. The next complete update from the National Hurricane Center will be at 4a.m. CDT, and then again at 10a.m. CDT. My next Alex update will be around 10a.m. Be sure, to scroll down for your Tuesday forecast discussion. I promised audio blogs earlier, but unfortunately it'll be one more day before the resumption of the audio blogs. Thanks for reading, and please feel free to leave any questions or comments you may have right here on the page, or via e-mail. Also, this is the only information source you will need when it comes to weather in SW Louisiana. It is my duty and my goal to serve you, and provide you with the most accurate and complete weather coverage. I strive to be the best, and that is what you'll get. I am totally committed to serving the people of the great city of Lake Charles, and this wonderful community of SW Louisiana. Please visit this site often, and please do make it the only one you check for weather information.


Good night and God bless! Have a great Tuesday!
-DM-

Much Wetter Period Ahead...All Eyes on Alex...

Monday, June 28, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The entire forecast hinges on Alex. See the tropical discussion for all the complete details on Alex. Monday was a day of mixed results. It was some sun, some storms scenario. The storms were the typical thermally induced variety, however, they were enhanced by the very tropical air mass in place thanks to the fickle Alex. A plume of moisture out ahead of Alex rotating around the periphery of the storm led to additional development with storms rotating generally from SE to NW across the forecast area. The activity was scattered at random, and in this situation the activity is not limited to the daytime hours. In this situation, it could rain at any particular location at any times. Rain chances do diminish at night, but they are not reduced entirely like you would normally expect. Temperatures on Monday still managed to reach the mid 90s on average, but this will trend downward for the rest of the week thanks to Alex. Overnight lows will be very warm and will struggle to fall below the 80 degree mark. It is very sticky outside, and condensation will form on just about anything. The nighttime hours should be quiet away from any brief squall.

Tuesday-Friday...The entire forecast hinges on Alex. This forecast will reflect the official forecast track laid out by the NHC for Alex. Again, please refer to the tropical weather discussion which follows this one. The storm will continue trudging through the Gulf waters Tuesday, and lumber its way towards the lower Texas coast or the coast of Northern Mexico. As it does so, a copious amount of tropical moisture will continue to be pumped into the region. The rain bands on the outer periphery of Alex will continue to rotate through the area. As the storm moves closer to its landfall point to our SW, they will gradually become more numerous in nature. The possibility of widespread showers and thunderstorms and occasional squalls are expected by mid week. Tuesday will likely similar to Monday with a some sun, some storms scenario. The chances for rain will jump into the likely category beginning with an influx of moisture ready to surge Westward around the cyclonic rotation. It will be a bit breezy during the rain bands with winds over 25-30 mph at times. The winds will continue to get a bit stronger by Wednesday and Thursday as the storm continues to intensify and approach the coast. A long fetch of ESE winds will develop around the circulation, and this will lead to possible coastal flooding with an expected 2-3' rise in astronomical tides. This will cause tidal backup into the lower end of area rivers as well. This increase in tides along with the threat for some heavy rain will be the main effects on our area from Alex. Winds and seas will be much higher offshore away from the coast. The anticipated coastal flooding has prompted the National Weather Service in Lake Charles to issue a Coastal Flood Watch which is in effect through Thursday. As I said a moment ago, rain chances will rise into the likely category on Tuesday, and increase further Wednesday and Thursday. We do need rainfall across the area, and with the ongoing drought conditions no other flooding threat should be realized. Some urban flooding may arise in areas with receive very heavy downpours in a short-term, but other than that no issues with freshwater flooding. Rainfall totals through Friday should be in the 2-5" range, with higher amounts in isolated locations exceeding 6". Rain chances will remain high and in the likely category through Friday, but will peak on Wednesday and Thursday as Alex makes landfall. It will take this tropical moisture a while to vacate the area, and the threat for higher rain chances will continue while Alex spins down over land. Temperature trends the next few days will respond as well. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s on Tuesday, and will be hard pressed to exceed 90 Wednesday and Thursday with the ample amount of rainfall in the area. Morning lows will remain very warm in the mid to upper 70s to around 80. As conditions begin to improve Friday, high temperatures will work their way back up to near normal in the lower 90s for most of the area. This is all assuming that Alex takes the current projected track. This forecast could get worse if Alex deviates from the current prognostication. Alex is such a large storm that, as long as its to our W and SW we will have some effects from it.

This weekend is 4th of July, and many many many of you have plans as we celebrate our Nation's birthday, and our Independence. This portion of the forecast is one that could still technically hinge on the progression of Alex, but for now we will assume that Alex will be long gone by that time. However, the deeper tropical moisture currently in place will linger. Therefore, while a return to a some sun, some storms scenario seems logical, rain chances will remain above normal at least for Saturday. As the deeper tropical moisture is slowly displaced with a dying Alex over Texas or Mexico, rain chances will be tempered downward back to near normal levels by Sunday, Independence Day, and this will carry over to the end of the forecast period on Monday. Monday is a holiday for many people as a lot of places will observe Independence Day on the 5th, since the 4th falls on a Sunday this year. At this point in time, there is no reason to cancel any 4th of July plans you may have, just understand that you will likely have to dodge some shower and thunderstorm activity from time to time. About an average chance for a shower or thunderstorm is currently depicted for the Sunday-Monday time frame, and this stands at 30% for the time being. Chances on Saturday will be a bit higher at 40%. Again, this is all subject to change based on how Alex behaves. Temperatures during the Saturday-Monday time frame will return to near normal to above normal levels with low to mid 90s expected for maximums and minimums remaining in the mid to upper 70s. In other words, we will be back to the standard summer regime by the end of the forecast period. In the extended, the first full week of July should be very reminiscent of Julys in the past. A typical summer pattern is anticipated barring any additional tropical development during this time. Temperatures will be at or above normal, and rain chances will be influenced by day to day synoptic features that models don't initialize this far out. That's all for the discussion for now, stay tuned for all the latest on Alex.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  77/92  78/88  77/88  30 60 40 70 60 80
LFT   77/92  77/88  78/89  30 60 40 70 60 70
BPT   78/93  77/88  78/87  30 60 40 70 60 80
AEX  75/94  75/89  76/88  30 50 30 70 50 60
POE  75/94  75/88  75/89  30 50 30 70 50 60
ARA  78/91  77/87  78/88  30 60 50 70 40 70



*Coastal Flood Watch through Thursday.*

Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of tropical showers and thunderstorms. Low 77. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with tropical showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 92. ESE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.

Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 78. ESE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday...Cloudy & Breezy with numerous showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 88. ESE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy & Breezy with scattered showers & thunderstorms. Low 77. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy & Breezy with occasional squalls. Numerous showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 88. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
6-29-10

Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 60%
Wind: ESE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100


Wednesday
6-30-10

Low: 78
High: 88
Rain: 70%
Wind: ESE 15-25
H.I:: 95-100


Thursday
7-1-10

Low: 77
High: 88
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 20-25
H.I.: 95-100


Friday
7-2-10

Low: 77
High: 91
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102


Saturday
7-3-10

Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 101-106


Sunday
7-4-10
Independence Day...Happy Birthday America

Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 103-108


Monday
7-5-10

Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 101-106


...Tropical Update...

So as to avoid the blog from being to cluttered for your viewing, the tropical update, which of course focuses solely on Alex, is a separate entry until further notice. The latest on Alex is posted above this blog. Besides, Alex there is nothing else to discuss in the tropics at this juncture.


...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory in effect.*

Tonight...East winds around 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 3 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...East winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night...East winds around 20 knots. Seas building 6 to 7 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...East winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday Night...East winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday...Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Good night & God bless! Scroll up for the latest on Alex!
-DM-

Not Much Change in Alex For Now...

Monday, June 28, 2010

Tropical Weather Discussion...This Monday evening all eyes continued to look at Alex. The first named storm of the season continues to dominate the weather headlines. The latest information from the National Hurricane Center is now available.

Tropical Storm Alex

4p.m. CDT Monday, June 28, 2010

...Alex holding steady for now, strengthening into a hurricane expected over the next 24 hours...Additional watches issued for the Texas Gulf Coast...

Latitude: 20.5 N

Longitude: 91.8 W

This position is about 410 miles ESE of Tampico, Mexico & 520 miles SE of Brownsville, Texas.

Winds: 60 mph. Some strengthening is expected through Tuesday, and Alex could become a hurricane late tonight or Tuesday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 70 miles from the center of circulation, the wind field will continue to expand as Alex strengthens.

Movement: NNW or 330 degrees at 5 mph. An increase in forward speed, and a turn back to the NW is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the WNW by Wednesday. An increase in forward speed is also expected through Wednesday. On this track, Alex will continue moving through the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and approach the coastline in the hurricane watch area by Wednesday night into Thursday. Landfall is expected Thursday.

Pressure: 29.23" or 990 mb. The pressure has leveled off this afternoon, but should begin to fall once again later tonight as the strengthening process resumes.

Watches/Warnings...No change to the hurricane watch that was issued this morning. It remains in effect for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas from La Cruz to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on the U.S./Mexico border & from the U.S./Mexico border to Baffin Bay, Texas. Portions of this area could be upgraded to a hurricane warning tonight. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first occurrence of tropical storm force winds are expected to occur. These are the conditions that make outdoor preparations dangerous and difficult.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the watch area generally within 48 hours. Depending on the future track of Alex, watches and warnings could be extended further up the Texas coast.

Discussion...There really isn't much change to the forecast philosophy with Alex compared to the last forecast package. The model suite is clustered in the Rio Grande Valley on both sides of the border, and the current forecast track is a consensus of the models. The steering currents in the Southern Gulf are very weak at this time, and this is the reason for the slow movement of Alex today. However, the steering currents are expected to strengthen over the next couple of days. Alex has been steered around the periphery of an anticyclone over the SE United States. The ridge was in place across much of the Gulf coast over the weekend, but has now weakened. The presence of the persistent Bermuda high over the Eastern Gulf still exists. A weakness has developed over the Western Gulf, and Alex's more Northerly motion today has been a result of this weakness. All models are insistent on a new ridge developing over the Central U.S. from the Great Plains t the Mid West by mid-week, and this could lead to future ramifications of Alex. There is also one other key player on the field that could factor into the equation. An advancing summer trough and associated weakening cold front is sliding towards the Gulf Coastal Plain. This frontal zone could set up along the Gulf Coast later this week, and create stronger SW winds out ahead of it over the Gulf. It remains to be seen how far down into the Gulf, if it all, this frontal zone will progress, and if will have any effect at all on Alex. If the previously mentioned secondary ridging processes don't take shape then Alex could remain on a more Northerly course, and then have a chance to be influenced by the summer trough. This would cause Alex to make landfall at a point further North along the Gulf coast, but this scenario is an outlier at this point in time. This scenario would likely produce a landfall closer to SW Louisiana, and would certainly increase the threat for hurricane conditions in our part of the world, but again this is not anticipated at this time.

The NHC's didn't deviate a whole lot from their previous advisory for the official track on this advisory. It is still aimed at the general vicinity of the Rio Grande. I see no reason to deviate from my original forecast either. I am sticking to the idea that landfall will be in the U.S. with this occurring between the Rio Grande and Corpus Christi on Thursday. The possibility still exist as well that Alex could attain major hurricane status before making its ultimate landfall in the latter half of the week. The current forecast shows Alex making landfall on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande as a strong category 2 storm on Thursday. Alex's strengthening trend today has been temporarily impeded by a bit of shear to the North of the storm, but this is forecast to lift out by Tuesday morning, thus the strengthening process should resume. I fully expect Alex to become a hurricane Tuesday. While it remains to be seen who will endure the brunt of the storm, effects will felt over a wide area. Alex is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical rain bands are being experienced all the way to the Florida Panhandle. These are the outer rain bands, and the usual afternoon sea breeze along the Gulf coast is helping to enhance rainfall with the super tropical air mass in place. The effects of Alex across this forecast area will be enhanced chances for rainfall through the work week, and an increase in tides along the coast. Some coastal flooding will likely occur from Jefferson County in SE Texas over to the Atchafalaya Region. Strong Southerly winds will cause tidal backup along the coast, and into the lower end of area rivers. Winds and seas will increase in the offshore waters, but tropical storm conditions should remain over water. No tropical storm force conditions are expected over land areas in the forecast area at this time unless the forecast track changes. Right now in the oil spill zone, conditions are expected to be quite rough with seas around 10-11'. The strong onshore flow will likely unfortunately send more oil towards the Louisiana coast, but it is unclear at this time if it will move closer to SW Louisiana. Heavy rainfall is expected from time to time across the entire region. Rainfall totals through Friday should be on the order of 2-4" with some areas receiving in excess of 6". These totals are subject to revisions based on revisions to track and intensity of Alex. This is a good time to point out again that it is not important to focus simply on the black line displayed on the forecast track. This black line only indicates the center of the storm. Alex is a large storm, and his effects will be felt over a wide region as illustrated above. Stay tuned for any possible further revisions to the forecast track and intensity. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is en route to Alex at this time, and we'll have more information available this evening. The graphics suite follows.

That's all for this update. An intermediate advisory will be issued at 7p.m. CDT by the National Hurricane Center followed by the next complete advisory at 10p.m. CDT. My next update on Alex will come shortly after that. I will also post a regular forecast discussion in a couple of hours. Of course, with Alex keeping us meteorologists busy, the blog is in short form. The forecast package until further notice will consist of the discussion, preliminary numbers, zone forecast, the 7 day forecast, and the marine forecast. All tropical information will be inserted into a different entry to keep it from being so cluttered. If my machine cooperates, I will also post the latest advisory on Alex in audio format. The audio blogs will only contain information Alex until further notice.


Have a good evening and God bless!
-DM-

Alex Strengthens...Could Be a Hurricane by Tonight...

Monday, June 28, 2010

Tropical Weather Discussion...Good afternoon. On this last Monday of June, Alex continues to be the big weather story, and continues his strengthening trend over the Gulf. New watches and warnings have been issued. Here are the specifics.

Tropical Storm Alex

1p.m. CDT Monday, June 28, 2010

...Alex Strengthens...Could Become Season's First Hurricane Tonight...

Latitude: 20.3 N

Longitude: 91.7 W

This places the center of circulation about 85 miles WNW of Campeche, Mexico and 535 miles SE of Brownsville, Texas.

Winds: 60 mph...Alex has been strengthening and will continue do so. Alex should approach hurricane strength this afternoon, and will likely reach hurricane status tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward to 70 miles from the center.

Movement: NNW or 330 degrees at 5 mph. This general motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday. After this point, a turn back to the NW is expected, but this remains to be seen. It all hinges on the development of a ridge across the Central U.S.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.23" or 990 mb.

Watches/Warnings...As of 10a.m. a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the Western Gulf of Mexico coastline. The Hurricane Watch is in effect along the coasts of Mexico and Texas from La Cruz, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on the U.S./Mexico border, and from the Rio Grande River to Baffin Bay, Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the onslaught of tropical storm conditions are expected, as these conditions will make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Rainfall...Additional rainfall totals of 3-6" are expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Southern Mexico through Tuesday. Isolated amounts of 10" or more are possible in mountainous areas. The heavy rains from Alex should reach Northern Mexico and Southern Texas by Wednesday. Alex is a large tropical storm, and the outer rain bands will rotate Northward towards the Northern Gulf coast, and affect Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle throughout the week. 2-4" of rain is possible across our area.

Discussion...Alex continues to strengthen as expected early this afternoon. The environment over the Southern Gulf is one that is very conducive to further development, and the intensity forecast reflects this. The official forecast has been shifted to the right (NE) of the previous forecast package. The entire model suite has shifted right, and the official forecast track is on the left side of the average of all models at this time. The official track takes Alex inland Thursday morning just South of the Rio Grande River on the U.S./Mexico border. The intensity forecast has also been revised upward, and Alex is expected to make landfall Thursday as a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Alex could obtain major hurricane status before making landfall. The longer time Alex spends over the Gulf, the longer it will have time to intensify. Alex's forward progression has slowed considerably during the last 24 hours. A very slow NNW progression is expected for the remainder of today, before it accelerates somewhat on Tuesday. It has been moving around the SW periphery of a ridge of high pressure anchored over the SE U.S., but this high is weakening, and steering currents are collapsing over the Western and Southern Gulf. We turn our attention to some synoptic scale features downstream that will ultimately steer Alex.

The same features discussed in previous discussions are still valid. An approaching trough is advancing towards the Gulf coast, and it remains to be seen how much of an influence this will have on Alex. The weakness that was expected to develop along the Gulf coast has indeed done so. It is responsible for the more Northward motion over the last 24 hours, and this will continue to be in place for at least another 24-36 hours. A secondary ridge is shown by forecast models to develop to the North of the advancing trough beyond 36 hours. This ridge over the Central U.S. could be strong enough to steer Alex back to the W or WNW into Northern Mexico or South Texas on Thursday. However, if the ridge isn't as strong as models depict and the trough is stronger than anticipated, then Alex will not show much Westward motion, and the current NNW to North motion will continue, thus bringing landfall at a point further up the Texas coast. This would also increase the threat for SW Louisiana at the end of the week. There is still some model inconsistencies that exist, and nothing is cut and dry yet. Although, the latest model suite is clustered from near Corpus Christi to just South of the U.S./Mexico border. The current official track is a consensus (average) of this morning's forecast models. I am staying the course, and I believe landfall will be in the U.S. on the Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi Thursday. Alex will certainly be a formidable hurricane at landfall as well. Based on the environment Alex is currently in, I believe reaching major hurricane of category 3 strength is not out of the question. If the trough is stronger and Alex approaches a point further North closer to SW Louisiana, landfall would occur later most likely Friday, and that will also increase the odds of a stronger storm as well. Although, if the trough picks up Alex, the environment over the Northern Gulf waters will be as favorable for continued strengthening as the Southern Gulf is. The advancing trough would produce wind shear from the SW over the Northern Gulf, and this shear would in turn act to weaken Alex as it approaches the coast. The jury is still out on this. All Gulf coast residents from Tampico, Mexico to New Orleans need to keep a watchful eye. Louisiana is by no means out of the woods yet.

Assuming Alex takes the projected path laid out by the NHC, the question is what kind of effects would SW Louisiana experience and what effect will this track of the storm have on the oil spill zone? First, there will certainly be impacts on our part of the world. An increase in moisture is a given with a stiff onshore flow. The chances for showers and thunderstorms and occasional squalls around the outer periphery of Alex are expected this week. Activity will be scattered today, but should be more numerous beginning Tuesday, and rain chances shoot up into the likely category from Wednesday-Friday at least. Rain could be in the likely category for the 4th of July weekend as well. More on that later. Rainfall will be heavy at times and 2-4" is expected on average this week, with some locations receiving over 6" across South Louisiana. The circulation around Alex will also lead to tidal backup along the coast, and a rise in tides. Coastal flooding issues are anticipated as Alex moves towards the coast. The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Watch in anticipation of this possibility through Thursday. Strong E to SE winds will lead to the tidal backup. Winds near tropical storm force in our coastal waters can't be ruled out, but on the current track tropical storm conditions are not expected inland. Winds will be gusty at times with gusts over 30 mph at times by Wednesday and Thursday. The further West you go, the higher the winds will be. It is possible that tropical storm conditions will be experienced in the Houston area on the current track. Of course, a more Northward track would worsen the expected conditions across SW Louisiana. Winds and seas in the offshore waters will likely hamper clean up efforts in the oil spill zone. Operations will likely have to be ceased in the next day or two. It is unclear at this time if the current prognostication for landfall will lead to oil approaching the coastline here in SW Louisiana. Once again, a track further to the right will increase the possibility of such an occurrence. Everyone needs to keep a watchful eye, and just have your plan in place should things change. Just keep checking back here for all the latest, and do some praying.

That's all for this update. The next complete advisory by the National Hurricane Center will be issued at 4p.m. CDT, and my next update will follow that once I collect data and look at the latest models. I will also have a regular forecast discussion for you, so you'll know exactly what kind of weather we can expect this week. Look for that tonight. Remember, there's no need to turn anywhere for the most complete and accurate weather information that you expect and can count on, than right here on this blog.

Have a good Monday afternoon! God bless!
-DM-

Alex Once Again a Tropical Storm...Gulf Landfall Later this Week, but Where?

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Tropical Weather Discussion...On the anniversary of one of the worst storms to ever strike the U.S., and the strongest and deadliest June storm ever, Hurricane Audrey, we are closely monitoring the progression of another Gulf storm tonight. Hurricane Audrey struck SW Louisiana on this date 53 years ago as a category 4 storm with winds around 150 mph, and a 12-15' storm surge. Over 500 people perished in the storm, and the exact death toll is still not known to the this day. Tonight, our focus continues to be on the season's first named storm, Alex. not much has changed since the 4p.m. forecast package.

Tropical Storm Alex Advisory

...Alex gaining strength over the Gulf...now a Tropical Storm once again...future track still a bit uncertain...

10p.m. CDT Sunday, June 27, 2010

Latitude: 19.4 N

Longitude: 91.3 W

This position is 60 miles WSW of Campeche, Mexico or about 470 miles ESE of Tampico, Mexico.

Winds: Increased to 45 mph with higher gusts. This makes Alex a tropical storm once again. Alex is a very large tropical storm. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 175 miles from the center of circulation. Strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days. Alex is forecast to become a hurricane in 36-48 hours.

Movement: WNW or  300 degrees at 7 mph. Alex's forward speed has decreased, and a general NW motion is expected through Tuesday.

Minimum Central Pressure: The pressure has decreased to 991 mb. or 29.26". Pressure will continue to fall for the next 24-48 hours, and the strengthening trend will continue.

No new watches and warnings are in effect.

Rainfall totals of 4-8" with isolated amounts up to 15" in mountainous areas are expected through Monday across Southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Guatemala. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are expected across this region as well.

Discussion...There is not a whole lot more to add from the 4p.m. Sunday discussion. The intensity forecast has changed a bit based on the fact that Alex is already a tropical storm once again. The storm continues to exhibit good, strong structure on visible satellite. Alex is a very large tropical cyclone, and will only grow larger over the next couple of days. Rain band from Alex will spread towards the Northern and Central Gulf coast this week. The intensity forecast now calls for Alex to reach category strength with winds around 95-100 mph at peak intensity on Wednesday before landfall. The current projected landfall is forecast to be in Northern Mexico, however, models continue to shift further right, and many forecast models tonight are clustered between the Rio Grande and Corpus Christi. There is still much uncertainty as far as how the storm will behave in relation to the large scale synoptic features I discussed in depth at the 4p.m. discussion. Scroll down for the detailed description. The Gulf coast ridge is weakening, and up to this point Alex has been steered around the Southern periphery of the controlling ridge. Now, that the ridge is weakening there is some wonderment if Alex will begin to move more to the North or keep on a more southerly track into Mexico. The possibility of a more Northern track seems to be increasing tonight. The new official forecast track doesn't really reflect this, but if model trends continue on Monday, I would expect further forecast revisions to be made.

It remains to be seen how much influence the developing weakness will have on Alex, but it appears that it will at least temporarily affect its movement. The steering currents that have kept Alex on a steady WNW pace are weakening and nearly collapsing tonight. It is possible that Alex could stall out for a time over the Gulf waters during the next couple of days. The environment over the Southern Gulf is certainly one that is conducive for further development, and the idea of Alex becoming a hurricane by Tuesday certainly looks to be realized. The current projection of a category 2 storm at landfall could even still be a bit conservative especially if the storm stalls out or treks further North, but based on the consensus of the models a storm of category 2 intensity seems logical for now. The other factor that may or may not pull Alex further North is on the map tonight as well. This is in the form of a rare summer cold front which has its sights set on approaching the Gulf coast by mid-week. The front and associated trough will most definitely be weakening by this time, but it could still be strong enough to have an influence on Alex especially if the weakness pulls Alex northward. This would increase the threat to SW Louisiana, and the outliers from the model suite do still depict this idea. Alex looks very impressive on satellite tonight, and with the explosion of storms near the center or the CDO (Central Dense Overcast), it is possible that Alex will be nearing hurricane strength Monday morning. It appears that Alex is primed for a period of rapid intensification. Therefore, I believe the official intensity forecast will be nudged upward. I also believe that ultimately the official landfall forecast will be shifted further to the right. I believe landfall will be in the U.S., but its still too early to tell for sure where it will occur, and how much the threat to SW Louisiana will increase with a landfall on the Texas side of the Rio Grande. Landfall is projected for Thursday, but if it comes in further North it could be as late as Friday. The current forecast suggests the landfall in Northern Mexico on Thursday. There will be some effects across our area because we will have a strong onshore flow with the storm to our SW. These effects appear minimal at this time with just a better chance of rainfall each day this week as some squalls from Alex rotate around the circulation. Some coastal flooding and an increase in winds and seas over the coastal waters is expected as well. More fine tuning will occur in the days ahead. More model data will hopefully help establish a better forecast consensus on Monday. It's still just a watch and wait mode around these parts, and that's exactly what I urge everyone to do. The graphic suite follows.

That's all for this update. The National Hurricane Center's next update will be at 4a.m. CDT Monday. My next storm update will be after the 10a.m. advisory Monday. Be sure to check back here for all the latest details on the season's first tropical system. Feel free to leave your questions or comments right here on the blog or send me an e-mail at the address provided on this page.



Have a great Sunday night & Monday! God bless!
-DM-