March Will End on a Magnificent Note, but Will April Start in Absolutely Awesome Fashion???

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was another perfect day with dominating high pressure in control with pleasant temperatures and low humidity in place. Subtle changes are in store for the next couple of days, before we see more significant changes over the Easter weekend. We are enjoying perhaps the nicest weather in the whole country right now with a pesky, potent storm over New England with lots of flooding up that way, and another Pacific weather system over the Pacific Northwest, and high pressure wedged in between over us. 

Aside from some brief patchy fog, today was perfect. Sunny skies were prevalent with highs close to normal in the low to mid 70s. Winds, as expected, did take on a more Southerly component as the prevailing surface high shifted Eastward, and is now centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico. This will help to slowly increase the low-level moisture across the area. This will also mean an increased threat for late night/early morning fog for the next couple of nights. Clear skies prevail tonight with the low-level onshore flow, and temperatures will be a bit warmer for minimums. The low this morning was in the mid 40s across the forecast area, but tonight lows should be closer to 50. Patchy fog will be possible really anytime after midnight until just after sunrise Wednesday when the sun helps to mix out the fog. The fog will be the only blemish as far as the weather is concerned for Wednesday. It should be another beautiful day, and it will be a quiet end to the month of March. The old saying "March comes in like a lion, and goes up like a lamb" certainly lives up to fruition this year. The slow temperature modification trend will continue with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. This is trending to above normal, but that being said it'll still be a very nice day with pleasant humidity values. A few clouds could dot the landscape during the afternoon with the increasing low-level moisture, but high pressure is also in place in the mid and upper levels, thus suppressing cloud development.

Nice weather continues for Thursday, but again patchy fog will be an issue early on. Temperatures continue to moderate with morning lows rising into the mid 50s. Mostly Sunny skies will be in store with continued high pressure in the mid and upper levels. The surface high will remain anchored over the SE United States at this time. Highs could approach 80, believe it or not. Upper 70s are correctly forecast for Thursday afternoon. At this same time, while we continue to enjoy splendid spring weather, our next storm system will be taking shape. This is not the same storm that is currently over the Pacific Northwest. The storm that will affect us will develop over the Desert SW as an active Southern branch of the Jet Stream carves out a trough. This system will develop, and move steadily Eastward during the second half of the week. Ahead of it, our winds will increase off the Gulf associated with the typical pressure anomalies between highs and lows. I would certainly expect some clouds during the afternoon with a possible transition from Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy at that time, however, the trend should still be for more sun than clouds. The fog will have the potential to be in the dense category on Thursday morning.

Good Friday-Easter Sunday...Not much change in the forecast philosophy from yesterday really. The daylight hours should remain dry with an increase in clouds and temperatures trending above normal at that time. Lows should be in the upper 50s to right around 60 by then, and highs near 80. Normal values for early April are the mid 50s and mid 70s respectively, so you can see we are trending above normal by week's end. The advancing Southern tracker storm system will be moving into West Texas on Good Friday, and bringing rain and storms to that area. It will make good progress and enter Central and North Texas by Friday evening, with the potential for the season's first major severe weather outbreak across the Southern flank of "Tornado Alley". Our winds will be quite gusty at times over 20 mph as the system continues its Eastward advancement. Skies will transition from Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy by the end of the day. Rain chances return for the overnight hours on Friday as the aforementioned storm begins to affect the region. Showers will develop and move from SW to NE across the forecast area as the front approaches SE Texas. A chance for thunderstorms will enter the equation after midnight as better dynamics and instability come into play. The presence of a low-level Jet will be a determining factor in the prospects of severe weather. Jet dynamics will result in Texas cyclogenesis Friday afternoon, and this surface low will move NE into Oklahoma Friday night. Rain chances jump up into the likely category with the potential for maxing out on Saturday. This, as the front moves into SW Louisiana. Models continue to insist on a morning arrival. This greatest threat for severe weather across the forecast area will come between 4a.m. and 10a.m. Saturday. This could actually act as a saving grace, due to the lack of daytime heating. The greatest threat for severe weather will be further North closer to the surface low. However, I certainly can't rule it out for us here in SW Louisiana either. That being said, it is still a bit early to be real specific about what type of severe weather may occur, but this set up certainly favors damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but I will narrow this down as we get closer to said event. Severe weather or not, rain will be likely, and it could be heavy at times with tons of low-level moisture in place just waiting to get wrung out like a sponge. There are still timing and intensity discrepancies involved with this system, and models still diverge on the idea of the front stalling out/washing out near the forecast area or pushing on through, and dissipating further to our East. For now, I will side with the idea that the front will clear the area, and it will do so by the early afternoon hours on Saturday. This will end the threat for any severe weather across the area, but clouds will hang around for a bit longer with some lingering low-level moisture in place due to the close proximity of the weakening front (frontlysis). Rainfall totals could be as much as 2" in places, but average QPF amounts should be around 1". Mild temperatures will continue ahead of the front Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 60s and afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s. Easter Sunday looks fairly nice, no matter what the front does. Drier air should be in place, but not necessarily any cooler air. Partly Cloudy skies will transition to Mostly Sunny skies during the day, and temperatures will be quite seasonable with lows in the low to mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s. The front could still be in our general vicinity, and lift back Northward as a warm front during the day, but this remains to be seen, and I will not side with this idea right now.

Monday-Tuesday & Extended...A dry & mild regime is slated for the end of the forecast period. It won't necessarily be as beautiful as it is right now, because there could be ample low-level moisture in place in response to the weakening or retreating front. Temperatures will trend normal to above normal, and highs could very well exceed 80 for these days. Lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Beyond the forecast period, the warmth of early April looks to continue with the storm track removed to our North, keeping the best dynamics for any severe weather away from our area, and only the weakening tail end of cold fronts to push through. One such front should arrive around mid-week, and bring a chance of rain, but it doesn't seem to be as potent as what we could endure Saturday. Pleasant Spring weather will return at some point in the first half of April, but exactly when remains to be seen, but based on current model runs it could be towards the following weekend (April 9-11). April is one of the driest months of the year across SW Louisiana, and if it follows March then it will fit that bill in 2010. Time will tell!

Listen to the audio blog for more specific weather information!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  48/75  55/78  59/80  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   47/76  54/78  58/80  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   50/77  57/79  62/81  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  44/77  50/80  54/82  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  45/77  51/80  55/81  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  50/76  56/78  61/79  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 48. Light South wind.

Wednesday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Sunny. High 75. South wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 55. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Mostly Sunny. High 78. South wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 59. South wind 10 mph.

Good Friday...Patchy Early Morning Fog, otherwise Partly Cloudy & Windy. High 80. SSE wind 15-20 mph.


Wednesday 3/31/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear, Patchy Fog
Temp: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 3

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 7

Noon

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 12

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 13

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10

9p.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 6


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
3-31-10

Low: 48
High: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10-15


Thursday
4-1-10
Holy Thursday
April Fool's Day

Low: 54
High: 78
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10-15


Friday
4-2-10
Good Friday

Low: 59

High: 80

Precip: 0%

Wind: SSE 15-20


Saturday

4-3-10

 

Low: 63
High: 77
Precip: 70%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20


Sunday
4-4-10
Easter

Low: 54
High: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Monday
4-5-10
Easter Monday
MLB Opening Day

Low: 53
High: 78
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW/WSW 10-15


Tuesday

4-6-10

Low: 58
High: 80
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.

Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      11:19a.m.   10:40p.m.
High:       4:38a.m.     2:38p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

   170.84'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Low:              44
Normal Low:  54
Record Low:  34-1913
High:              73
Normal High:  74
Record High:  94-1946

Precipitation

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.60"
Normal Month to Date:  3.43"
Year to Date:                 9.28"
Normal Year to Date:  12.23"
Record:                         3.40"-1935

Sensible Weather Observed Today:

Fog

One Year Ago (2009)

Low: 49
High  74
Rain: 0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low: 59
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low: 60
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday: 7:03a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:  7:31p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Tuesday March 30

Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6

New Moon- Wednesday April 14

First Quarter- Wednesday April 21


This Date in Weather History...March 30: On this date in 1899,  The town of Ruby, CO finally starts diggioug from an amazing 141" of snow from a single storm. Ruby was old mining town in the Elk Mountains near present day Crested Butte.

90 years later in 1989, thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a slow moving cold front caused large hail and damaging winds at over 50 locations across the SE U.S. The storms also spawned a tornado that injured 11 people at Northhampton, NC.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-