SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It isn't very often that we get a prolonged stretch of nice weather, like we've had since the latter half of last week. This is one of those times, but you know it will change sooner or later. The question is...when? The changes are already beginning as evident today by the early morning low clouds and/or fog and a few cumulus clouds this afternoon as a result of the presence of more low-level moisture with increased relative humidity. However, that being said it was still very comfortable out with the Mostly Sunny skies for the majority of the day and temperatures generally in the mid 70s. Although, the northern portion of the forecast area did reach 80 with 80 the official high at Alexandria. This came after another cool start with lows in the mid to upper 40s this morning. The air mass modification continues tonight and Thursday as the surface winds continue to blow in from the Gulf. Mid and upper level ridging will keep dry air in place above the surface. Clear skies will prevail with another opportunity to view the beautiful full moon, but conditions are primed for another night of patchy fog development after midnight. Overnight lows will be well into the 50s, with mid 50s a target number. Thursday's highs will reach the mid 70s to near 80, under plenty of sunshine after the dissipation of the fog. It will also be becoming progressively windier for the next few days in advance of the Pacific storm. Winds on Thursday could exceed 20 mph at times. The established onshore flow will continue as well.
The forecast area will remain dry until late Friday night into Saturday when the developing Pacific storm system and its associated cold front moves into our general vicinity. Ahead of it on Good Friday, the pre-frontal air mass changes will continue. It will be another ideal night for fog development on Thursday night/Friday morning. Morning lows will only be around 60. This will certainly be some of the warmest minimums we've had all year. Fog should lift by mid-morning, and skies will generally be Partly Cloudy for much of the day. We will likely transition to Mostly Cloudy by the end of the day as more moisture in the mid and upper levels finally arrives in advance of the Pacific front. Most locations will top out near 80 including the Lake Charles area. Yes, this is unseasonably warm for early April, but certainly not Earth-shattering by any means. By Friday afternoon, it will still be dry here, but we'll be watching things evolve out West over Texas. The approaching Pacific cold front will be affecting this area, and a significant severe weather outbreak will be possible from Central Texas northward into Oklahoma and over into the ARK-LA-TEX. This will be an area in close proximity to a developing surface low due to the increasingly active Jet Stream. Showers and thunderstorms will develop and move ESE through the day Friday, and will be encroaching on the forecast area late Friday night. Clouds and winds will increase through the day, and rain chances are inserted for after dark on Good Friday. Any outdoor activities you may have planned for Good Friday afternoon-evening should be fine. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night ahead of the main line of storms that is expected to develop along the cold front.
The cold front will be in a weakening state as it heads into Louisiana, and this will also play a role in determining whether or not we'll have severe weather. Certainly, the areas mentioned above will stand to see the severe weather threat, but at this time I believe the severe weather threat across our area will be on an isolated basis. Showers and thunderstorms will certainly be in the likely category, and still max out with the ample amount of low level moisture in place. The best chance for severe weather will be across the Northern half of the forecast area, closer to the best dynamics. The time line for the roughest of the weather should be between 4a.m. & 8a.m. for Lake Charles and 6a.m. & 10a.m. for Lafayette. The models have continued to speed up the timing of the system, but also continue their idea of sending a weakening front through the area. This seems logical with the main Jet Stream far removed from the Gulf coast. The window of opportunity for severe weather will come in the early morning hours Saturday, and likely be in the form of damaging winds and large hail if it does occur. There are several factors forecast to be in place that should mitigate a tornado threat at least here locally. It should come with the advancing MCS (squall line) Rainfall totals should be on the average of an inch or less. This system will not be unlike its predecessors, and will move through quickly, thus limiting rainfall totals. Certainly brief heavy rainfall is likely with the thunderstorms. Mild weather will continue ahead of the boundary with morning lows for Saturday in the low to mid 60s. The rain will likely end for the entire forecast area by noon, and conditions will be improving for the afternoon. There will be very little in the way of cooling behind the front. Some sunshine may break through behind the storms, but clouds will certainly be dominate for the day on Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 70s. The timing of the system is such that most of the all important Easter weekend will be decent.
I've mentioned the last couple of days that models have started to hint at the idea of the front stalling out in close proximity to the forecast area, and this seems to be more likely per model runs tonight. The front will struggle to clear the forecast area Saturday, but it should do so just barely. This will usher in some somewhat drier air in its wake Saturday afternoon. If nothing else it will end the rain, and clouds could break up Saturday night. Seasonable temperatures will follow the front as we head into Easter Sunday morning. There will be no threat of rain for Easter Sunday church services. There will likely still be some clouds around, especially with a stalled front hovering offshore. This weak front will likely waver back Northward during the day on Easter Sunday, and this could ignite a few showers across the forecast area during the afternoon. However, it doesn't seem like it will hamper any Easter egg hunts or other outdoor activities that you may have planned with your family. I will put in a 20% chance for a shower at this time, but this is certainly a very minimal possibility, and in the end drier air in the mid and upper levels may win out and prevent any showers from developing. There's also the possibility that the front won't retreat Northward, leaving us with a beautiful day. As it stands now, temperatures will be seasonable with the highs reaching the mid 70s. Stay tuned for certain further revisions for this period.
Dry weather with above normal temperatures is in the offing for Monday and Tuesday. Drier air will be in place in all levels of the atmosphere. Building high pressure from the West will force drier air into the area as the wavering front washes out in our general vicinity. Expect Mostly Sunny skies both days with highs around 80 to the lower 80s. Morning lows will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. The end of the forecast period on Wednesday could offer up our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. It remains to be seen as models diverge on timing of a rather robust system for the middle to latter half of next week. Certainly moisture will increase in the lower levels by Wednesday with an established return flow as the high moves into the SE U.S. Unseasonably warm minimums will continue with readings in the mid 60s. Highs will cool off a little bit, but only as a result of the Southerly flow and increased cloud cover across the area. A chance of rain and thunderstorms is also maintained at this time for the end of the forecast period. This system could bring a severe weather outbreak with it, and definitely looks stronger than the Saturday system with respect to temperatures. Let's not fret over this one right now, at least not until after Easter. Beyond the forecast period, it looks like a period of absolutely awesome April weather will be in store behind the mid week system.
Listen to the audio blog for complete forecast details!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 54/77 58/79 63/77 0 0 0 0 40 80
LFT 53/77 57/80 61/78 0 0 0 0 30 80
BPT 57/80 61/80 65/76 0 0 0 0 40 80
AEX 51/81 55/81 60/77 0 0 0 0 50 90
POE 52/80 56/81 61/77 0 0 0 0 50 90
ARA 56/77 59/79 62/78 0 0 0 0 30 80
Tonight...Clear with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 54. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 77. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 58. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Good Friday...Partly Cloudy in the morning, becoming Mostly Cloudy. Windy. High 79. SSE 20-25 mph & gusty.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Windy. Low 63. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty.
Saturday...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely in the morning, mainly before 10a.m. Some severe thunderstorms & locally heavy rainfall possible. Main severe weather threats would be damaging winds & large hail. Becoming Partly Cloudy in the afternoon. Windy. High 77. SSW wind 20-25 mph & gusty in the morning, becoming WNW at 20 mph and gusty by noon. Rainfall totals up to 1". Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday 4/1/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear w/ Patchy Fog
Temp: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 7
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 9
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 77
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 72
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 13
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
Holy Thursday
April Fool's Day
Low: 54
High: 77
Rain 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
4-2-10
Good Friday
Low: 58
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 20-25
Saturday
4-3-10
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 20-25
Saturday
4-3-10
Low: 63
High: 77
Rain: 80% AM
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-25
Sunday
High: 77
Rain: 80% AM
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-25
Sunday
4-4-10
Easter Sunday
Easter Sunday
Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SW 10-15
Monday
4-5-10
Easter Monday
MLB Opening Day
Low: 59
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Tuesday
4-6-10
Low: 62
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Wednesday
4-7-10
Low: 65
High: 78
Rain: 60% PM
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet building to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data..
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:20p.m. 11:27p.m.
High: 5:45a.m. 2:50p.m.
...Toledo Bend...
170.65'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Low: 49
Normal Low: 54
Record Low: 31-1987
High: 73
Normal High: 74
Record High: 88-1946
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.60"
Normal Month to Date: 3.54"
Year to Date: 9.28"
Normal Year to Date: 12.34"
Record: 2.33"-1921
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 57
High 76
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 68
High: 79
Rain: Trace
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 54
High: 78
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:02a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:32p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6
New Moon- Wednesday April 14
First Quarter- Wednesday April 21
Full Moon- Wednesday April 28
This Date in Weather History: March 31: March went out like a lion on in Florida on this date in 1962.A tornado struck the town of Milton, FL, killing 17 persons and injuring 100 others. It was the worst tornado disaster in Florida history.
1992: This won't seem like much to us in SW Louisiana where we average 55-60" of rain a year, but it's a big deal out in Las Vegas where they just over 5"per year. The city recorded 4.80" of rain during March 1992. This set two records for Las Vegas, one for the wettest March ever (the old record was 1.83" set in 1973), and the other one was for all-time wettest month ever. This eclipsed the old record of 3.39" in September 1939. The official normal yearly rainfall for Vegas is a minuscule 4.19".
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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