Fantastic Friday in Store...Nice Weekend....Storms Monday...

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Before I get to the forecast, I have a personal note...There's not many times when I'm short on words, but I am still adjusting to the shock of the very sad news I received on Wednesday morning. Andy McLaurin, a former college classmate and fellow meteorologist, passed away suddenly in his sleep early Tuesday morning. He was only 29 years old. Details are still uncertain as to what his official cause of death was, but he was a great guy and will be sorely missed by his family and friends. All of us from the ULM Atmospheric Science Program send our condolences to the McLaurin family, and we continue to mourn the loss of a great friend and even better person. I ask that you please pray for our fallen colleague and his family. May you rest in the peace of God, eternally, Andy, our friend. God took you home way too early, but I know you're in Heaven smiling down on us. We'll see you again someday, buddy!

I felt it necessary to not blog last night, as I needed time to pray and reflect and control my emotions. In Andy's memory, I'd like to include some lyrics to a song that I think sums up how I feel after this sudden loss.

"Dancing with Angels" by Monk & Neagle

Memories surround me
But sadness has found me
I'd do anything for more time
Never before has someone meant more
And I can't get you out of my mind

There is so much that I don't understand
But I know...

You're dancing with the angels
Walking in new life
You're dancing with the angels
Heaven fills your eyes
Now that you're dancing with the angels

You had love for your family
Love for all people
Love for the Father, and Son
Your heart will be heard
In your unspoken words
Through generations to come

There is so much that I don't understand
But I know

You're dancing with the angels
Walking in new life
You're dancing with the angels
Heaven fills your eyes
Now that you're dancing with the angels


We're only here for such a short time
So I'm gonna' stand up, shout out,
And sing Hallelujah
One day I'll see you again


You're dancing with the angels
Walking in new life
You're dancing with the angels
Heaven fills your eyes
Now that you're dancing with the angels

Andy McLaurin January 28, 1981- March 2, 2010


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a terrific Thursday after another cold start with some areas experiencing a light freeze. High pressure remained in complete control leaving the weather on auto-pilot today. This will continue for a couple more days yet, and this will become the longest stretch of perfection we've had so far in 2010. After the chilly start this morning temperatures warmed up into the lower end of the 60s. Crystal clear skies prevailed with very dry air in place at the surface. This trend will continue tonight although there are some subtle differences. The orientation of the controlling high tonight is slightly East of the forecast area, thus a very subtle return flow has been established. This return flow will not make much of a difference in the weather just yet. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer across the forecast area tonight, but it will still be rather chilly, and minimums will certainly be below normal. Expect readings to be in the mid to upper 30s. The other minor difference tonight is a very thin cirrus field streaming overhead as the Subtropical Jet Stream gets re-activated over the region. The very thin cirrus clouds should not negate the cooling process significantly.

The first work week of March will end on a quiet note Friday with the high pressure anchored over the Gulf Coast region. The slow modification of temperatures will continue. After the cold start, expect highs to reach the low to mid 60s. The slight return flow will continue, and low-level moisture will creep back into the forecast area. No clouds are expected as the air will remain very dry with ridging at the surface and in the upper levels. Quiet weather continues into the weekend with the slow but steady state air mass modification continuing. The weather will cooperate for any outdoor activities you may have planned. Enough low-level moisture could be present by Saturday afternoon for some clouds to form, but there will certainly be plenty of sunshine in the offing for Saturday. The morning temperature should be in the lower 40s while afternoon highs reach very close to normal levels in the mid to upper 60s. Patchy fog could be an issue late Friday Night and early Saturday, and even more so Saturday Night and early Sunday with the return flow more established. Heading into Sunday, a mix of clouds & sun is expected as some deeper low level moisture moves in. This is advance of our next storm system, a potent Pacific problem in line for Monday. With the deeper low-level moisture in place on Sunday, this is why a more significant fog issue could arise. The pressure gradient will stiffen as well on Sunday with the associated pressure differences in response to the approaching storm. Temperatures will approach the 70 degree threshold, almost warm after this incredibly cold winter!

The Pacific system comes into play late Sunday through Monday. The approaching system will still be gathering strength as it comes out of the Rockies into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. The deeper moisture in place, and a weaker cap could result in a few 'streamer' showers overnight Sunday, but this is a slight proposition at this juncture. The warming continues this period with lows perhaps above normal right around 50. Rain chances accelerate into the likely category Monday, and may go higher as we draw nearer to the event. I'll get more specific about this upcoming system over the weekend, as it  moves further into the data network system and models have a better handle on this situation. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday as this potent upper level low, surface low pressure system, and trailing cold front approach the forecast area and act to create sufficient lift and instability. As of this writing, there are still timing and strength issues with the models. However, I believe the eventual movement of this system will support the development of some showers and/or a thunderstorm during the morning. The best chance for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity should arise during the afternoon & evening hours as the front works its way into and through the area. The entire forecast area should be in the warm sector of this system, thus a severe weather threat could materialize. There are a number of factors that must congeal to engender the severe weather potential that I speak of. Again, this is something that will conjure up some fine tuning over the weekend as the models continue to make like a trial and deliberate. However, if the current projections are correct, the progged track of the surface low would suggest a severe threat across the forecast area. The greatest threat would be North of I-10. The period from late February through late April is often the prime time for severe weather in this area. Monday could certainly turn out to be a severe weather day, but to what extent and what mode of severe weather remains to be seen at this time. All modes of severe weather are possible, but at the same time the severe weather could be confined to a single parameter. Based on my analysis from Thursday afternoon, tornadoes and damaging wind seem more likely than hail at this point. Rainfall totals with this Monday system should be an inch or less as this system like its predecessor will be a quick mover. Certainly with the warmer air mass in place, plenty of deep low-level moisture, & instability showers & thunderstorms will be a good bet. The timing issues arise, but as of right now the most likely time for any rainfall will be from around noon until 8p.m. Monday Night. Right now, I would suggest a later arrival of the front, say between 5 and 8p.m. Monday Evening. Monday will be windy and unseasonably warm by a category or two. Highs will be right at 70. No rain early Monday Morning could mean another prime set up for fog. The rain will be the main issue for Monday. A flooding threat is not likely to be realized at this point since this system is likely to be a quick mover. Conditions should begin improving Monday Night with just a small chance of rain leftover on the backside of the departing low. Despite slight CAA, not much cooling is expected by the Monday night period. Conditions will also continue to improve this period as a renewed area of high pressure takes over.

The latter portion of this forecast period shows some uncertainty as well. The very active El Nino pattern that we've dealt with all season will likely be in play after its hiatus this week. Tuesday should be a nice day with clearing skies and lower humidity. Temperatures will be at or just above normal with highs likely exceeding 70. Morning lows should be in the 50s. Wednesday should also be a very nice early Spring day, although the cirrus deck will likely be en vogue with another approaching storm system hanging in the balance by Thursday. Of course, there is a large range of possibilities with this system, but the idea of it occurring certainly on the table. Near normal to above normal temperatures are expected to last through the end of the forecast period. This part of the forecast will be welcomed by everyone, but we can't seem to shake this active El Nino pattern, but we will soon. This system could also bring with it a severe weather threat next Thursday, and just the same end up being just another pesky light rain and/or drizzle situation. If I had to choose a side at this time, I would lean towards the severe weather event. Rain chances are reflected for Thursday, but are kept in the chance category until better clearance occurs in the coming days. Temperatures will continue to range close to normal around this time. Beyond the scope of this period, Pleasantly cool weather and abundant sunshine appears to be on tap for the end of next week and the weekend of 13-14 March. Model runs are flip-flopping on any long range solutions at this point. It could be very nice for the mid month period or the unsettled pattern could continue offering up some severe weather chances. The latest model runs have shunted the idea of another blast of Arctic air coming down close to St. Patrick's Day, but this is certainly an idea that I won't completely wipe off the table yet. Stay tuned!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  37/63  40/65  44/68  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   36/63  39/65  43/69  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   39/65  42/66  45/70  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  34/62  37/64  41/67  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  35/62  38/65  42/67  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  35/63  41/65  45/68  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear. Low 37. Light SE wind.

Friday...Sunny. High 63. SE 5-10 mph.

Friday Night...Clear w/ Patchy Fog Possible after Midnight. Low 40. Light SE wind.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny. High 65. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after Midnight. Low 44. SE wind 5-10
mph.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy and Windy. High 68. SE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.


Friday 3/5/10  Daily Planner

7a.m.

Weather: Clear, Cold, & Calm
Temp: 37
Precip: 0%
Wind: Calm

Noon

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 6

5p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 4


Drew's 7 Day Outlook




Friday
3-5-10

Low: 37
High: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Saturday
3-6-10

Low: 40
High: 65
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Sunday
3-7-10

Low: 44
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 15-20


Monday
3-8-10

 

Low: 52

High: 71

Precip: 70%

Wind: SSE 15-20

Tuesday

3-9-10

Low: 55
High: 72
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15


Wednesday
3-10-10

Low: 47
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15


Thursday
3-11-10

Low: 50
High: 70
Precip: 40%
Wind: SSE 15-20


...Marine...

Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet.

Friday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Sunday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-