SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Do you miss the spectacular spring weather we had for the last few days? This is certainly the kind of weather that makes you miss it more! A shield of mostly light rain has enveloped the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area in response to a SE moving ULL coming out of Texas. This is basically a pocket of cold air aloft. This ULL is a weakening state this afternoon, thus the rain is on the light side. The greater instability is over the Gulf of Mexico where some pockets of heavier rain and a few embedded thunderstorms are occurring, but these should bypass land areas. Off and on light rain and/or drizzle will be the dominate weather feature in association with this upper level spin in the atmosphere. Rainfall amounts will be on the light side with generally less than 1/4" expected. It is on the cool side as well with temperatures in rain areas in the low to mid 50s...54 at Lake Charles for example. This ULL will be a fairly quick mover, and conditions will improve from W to E overnight with rain ending. It will remain cool with lows in the mid to upper 40s across the forecast area. Modest CAA is in place over the area in the wake of a cold front which pushed through Monday, and of course the clouds and rain aid in the chilly temperatures in place. Rain will be in the likely category for tonight mainly before midnight, then a slight chance is maintained for the wee morning hours of Wednesday.
Wednesday-Wednesday Night...Improving conditions, but clouds slow to clear in the wake of departing ULL. If the luck of the Irish is with us, there won't be any rain on this St. Patrick's Day. However, a secondary minor disturbance will rotate through the active Jet Stream, and could spark a few additional light showers late tonight or Wednesday morning, but additional rainfall looks inconsequential at this time. Clouds will gradually scour out during the day, and Mostly Sunny conditions should prevail by the mid-late afternoon hours as high pressure rebuilds over the area. Weak CAA will continue with a light offshore flow at the surface. Any rain chance on Wednesday is confined to the morning hours, and I'll keep it at a very slight 20% in anticipation of the secondary impulse. Below normal temperatures are slated with the slow eroding of the cloud deck and slight chance of morning rain. Mid 60s sound like a good target number to me. Quiet weather for the Wednesday Night period with the re-established high pressure in control and modest CAA continuing. Lows should bottom out in the low to mid 40s with light Northerly winds.
Thursday-Friday...Spectacular Spring weather is in the offing as high pressure dominates! Get out and enjoy! The mornings will be cool while afternoons will be pleasant. Temperatures will remain below normal with morning lows in the low to mid 40s while afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be on the light side, but CAA will cease Thursday. An offshore flow will continue for Thursday, but by Friday the orientation of the controlling high will shift East resulting in the return of an onshore flow by that afternoon. It will rather unnoticeable at first, however, as winds will be very light throughout the day.
The Weekend...Rapid changes occur Saturday. The controlling high continues its exit Eastward, and the return flow will become more pronounced. At this same time, our next storm system in the form of a strong Pacific cold front will be developing out West over the lee of the Rockies. This front will progress Eastward rather quickly through the day Saturday as a fast Jet Stream becomes involved. Therefore, a fast transition from stellar spring weather to stormy spring weather is expected. Clouds will begin to increase in the early morning hours on Saturday and lower and thicken throughout the day. Rain chances enter the forecast for the afternoon and evening hours as the front rolls through. Scattered activity is expected to develop in the afternoon hours, and move from SW to NE off the Gulf out ahead of said cold front. The best chance for shower and thunderstorm activity will come late Saturday evening through Saturday night as the front comes in. A line of showers and thunderstorms (MCS) is expected to congeal over Central Texas and move through the area Saturday night. It remains to be seen if severe weather will be a factor, but a couple of global models suggest the idea. This will bear watching. For now, I will put rain chances in the likely category and forgo the mention of severe thunderstorms for this period. The front moves through quickly, and a fresh area of high pressure takes over for Sunday with strong CAA in place in the wake of the front. Clouds will quickly clear out on Sunday, but a chance of rain is maintained for the pre-dawn hours as some lingering moisture may result in a brief period of post-frontal rain. Sunny skies should return by noon Sunday if not before, but it will be on the chilly side as this front taps into some Canadian air over the Rockies. Quite a temperature difference is expected with Saturday highs in the lower 70s, while Sunday highs only reach the upper 50s. The lows for the weekend will be quite a contrast as well with lower 50s for Saturday morning, while Sunday morning could potentially be as cold as the mid 30s. For now, I will keep Sunday lows closer to 40, but either way it's below normal. It will quite windy behind the front with gusts over 20 mph at times late Saturday through Sunday with the transition to offshore from onshore behind the front.
Monday-Tuesday & Extended...High pressure in control these days with some Marvelous March weather on tap. It will be unseasonably cool each day, however, with lows in the frosty range on Monday in the mid to upper 30s, and lower 40s on Tuesday. Highs should be in the low 60s Monday and closer to the mid 60s on Tuesday. Lighter winds are expected, but a low level Northerly flow is expected to continue with the ridging processes in control. A warming trend will commence just beyond the forecast period with nice weather continuing for much of next week. Temperatures will approach 50 for lows and highs will jump back up into the 70s. Rain chances will likely return in earnest as we approach Palm Sunday, but exactly when this occurs is anyone's guess at this juncture as this is still a ways off yet.
Listen to the audio blog for more specifics!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 47/64 43/65 44/68 60 20 0 0 0 0
LFT 47/63 42/65 43/67 60 20 0 0 0 0
BPT 48/65 44/67 45/69 60 20 0 0 0 0
AEX 45/62 41/64 42/68 30 20 0 0 0 0
POE 45/63 42/64 42/68 40 20 0 0 0 0
ARA 49/63 42/66 43/68 70 20 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with a 60% chance of light rain mainly before midnight. Low 47. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain mainly in the morning. Slow clearing through the day. High 64. NW wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clearing and Cool. Low 43. NW wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 65. North 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 44. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 68. East wind 10 mph becoming SE late.
Wednesday 3/17/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 47
Precip: 20%
Wind: NW 8
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 51
Precip: 20%
Wind: NW 8
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 56
Precip: 20%
Wind: NW 10
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 62
Precip: 10%
Wind: NW 9
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: NW 7
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: NW 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
3-17-10
St. Patrick's Day
Low: 47
High: 64
Precip: 20%
Wind: NW 5-10
Thursday
3-18-10
Low: 43
High: 65
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
Low: 44
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Saturday
3-20-10
Low: 51
High: 71
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
Sunday
3-21-10
Low: 38
High: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Monday
3-22-10
Low: 36
High: 62
Precip: 0%
Wind: NW 10-15
Tuesday
3-23-10
Low: 41
High: 65
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Widespread rain late in the evening...then a chance of rain after midnight.
Wednesday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of rain.
Wednesday Night...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of rain in the evening.
Thursday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tide Data @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 4:18a.m. 3:08p.m.
High: 10:32a.m. 10:34p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.09'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Low: 52
Normal Low: 51
Record Low: 25-1913
High: 60
Normal High: 71
Record High: 85-1955
Precipitation
Today: 0.10"
Month to Date: 0.91"
Normal Month to Date: 1.82"
Year to Date: 8.59"
Normal Year to Date: 10.62"
Record: 2.10"-1893
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Light Rain
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 56
High 67
Rain: 0.88"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 45
High: 51
Rain: 0.14"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 58
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:20a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:22p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday March 23
Full Moon- Tuesday March 30
Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6
New Moon- Wednesday April 14
This Date in Weather History...March 16: It was a violent weather day on March 16, 1942 as a widespread tornado outbreak occurred across several states. States that experienced tornadoes included: Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, & Indiana. 25 of the tornadoes were of F2 intensity or greater, and 75 fatalities occurred in the town of Baldwyn, MS. The town was hit by 2 tornadoes that day, one of which was an F4 and the other was an F3. The tornadoes occurred about 35 minutes apart. In Illinois, a violent F5 tornado roared through Peoria and Marshall Counties, killing 7 and injuring 70.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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