SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...How bout that weather today? Aside from the patchy early morning fog and the high clouds streaming across the area from time to time today it was absolutely beautiful! It was a chilly start as advertised with lows ranging from the low to mid 40s, however, with the dry air in place we enjoyed a fast warm up after the fog dissipated and the sun came up. Highs topped out near 70 today. I think 70 is just about the perfect temperature. Some changes are on the horizon in the short term as our next storm system hangs in the balance.
Tonight...It will remain dry, but patchy fog will be an issue again. Although, it shouldn't be widespread or dense for that matter because the established onshore flow will remain prominent overnight keeping the atmosphere mixed up just enough to prevent a serious fog problem. It may become a situation of fog vs. low clouds depending how much atmospheric mixing occurs. Certainly, the high clouds will continue to stream across the area as an active Subtropical Jet Stream continues to move across the area ahead of the advancing storm system. The southerly flow will also result in warmer minimum temperatures, thus you can expect morning lows around 50. This is seasonable for late March. The low clouds and patchy fog will be the only influential weather as we head into Wednesday.
Wednesday-Thursday...The fog and low clouds will dissipate by mid-morning and a mild temperature regime is expected. The next storm system to affect the area is currently over West Texas, and it will progress Eastward quickly on Wednesday. It's cold front will be bearing down on us by Wednesday night. Wednesday should be a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. It will be a normal day temperaturewise with maximums in the lower 70s. The prominent Southerly flow will continue with onshore breezes about 10-15 mph at times. Rain chances will return overnight Wednesday as the cold front slides into East Texas. By this time, it will be close enough to the area to begin to produce some scattered showers across the area. The best instability and dynamics with this system will bypass the forecast area, so just general shower and thunderstorm activity is expected. Mainly scattered activity is expected overnight Wednesday, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Thursday as the front moves in and out of SW Louisiana very quickly. The time frame I suggested yesterday, looks to be too late! This is now shaping up to be a morning event. The main window of opportunity of rain now seems to be 6a.m. to noon Thursday. Rainfall totals for this event should generally be a 1/2" or less. No severe weather is expected, but the majority of us will see at least some shower or thunderstorm activity Thursday morning. Conditions quickly improve Thursday afternoon as the front exits stage right, and drier but not much cooler air moves in with a new area of high pressure slated to build in. Temperatures for Thursday will continue to be mild. Morning lows will be close to 60, while afternoon highs reach the mid 70s. Rain chances drop out of the forecast entirely by Thursday night. There's not much cool air poised to spill into the region behind this front, so only a minor cool down is expected heading into Friday.
Friday-Saturday...Beautiful weather is expected as high pressure settles in! Enjoy it! It's the start of Spring Break this weekend, so that'll be nice! Sunny skies are expected both days with very pleasant temperatures. It'll be seasonably cool each morning with lows in the mid 40s to around 50 while afternoon highs will just be on either side of the 70 degree mark. Upper 60s to near 70 seems logical for Friday with weak CAA in place, while lower 70s are in the offing for Saturday as the high will be right overhead for much of the day, before sliding Eastward in the afternoon.
Sunday...It's Palm Sunday! Another storm system will be gathering steam out West over the weekend, and will quickly be heading our direction by this time. Models continue to speed it up, and it looks like this trough and its associated cold front will push through the area rather quickly early Sunday. It could make its passage while we're sleeping Saturday night, so you may not even notice it. Moisture return will be limited, so not much of a chance of rain is expected. I will mention just a slight 20% at this time for the Saturday Night/Sunday Morning time frame as there could be just enough forcing to generate some showers. Better dynamics will be too our North. Cloudiness will certainly be present ahead of this boundary. The front quickly moves into Dixie, and our nice weather resumes! Drier and somewhat cooler air will filter in Sunday behind the front, with skies transitioning from Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Low temperatures jump back into the mid 50s while afternoon highs remain near normal in the low to mid 70s. It's still possible I will remove Sunday's rain chance entirely...stay tuned!
Monday-Tuesday & Extended...Great weather for Spring Break! High pressure becomes re-established across the Gulf Coast. Expect full sunshine both days with very pleasant temperatures once again, as our nice stretch of Spring weather continues. Lows will be in the comfortable 45-50 range, and highs should be in the 68-73 range each day. Looking into the extended, nice weather looks to hang around for much of next week with a continued warming trend each day. Could we flirt with 80 degrees before Easter? It's possible, but still shear speculation at this point. It looks like there could be a rather bodacious storm system around 3 April, but again pinning down specifics at this time is near impossible.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 51/73 59/75 48/68 0 0 30 60 0 0
LFT 50/73 58/75 47/68 0 0 30 60 0 0
BPT 53/73 61/73 49/69 0 0 40 60 0 0
AEX 47/74 57/72 45/66 0 0 30 70 0 0
POE 47/74 57/72 46/67 0 0 30 70 0 0
ARA 52/73 60/75 50/70 0 0 30 60 0 0
Tonight...Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 51. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Patchy Fog and/or Low Clouds dissipating by mid-morning otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 59. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Cloudy with morning showers & thunderstorms likely. Becoming Partly Cloudy in the afternoon. High 75. SSW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cooler. Low 48. NNW wind 10 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 68. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday 3/24/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Patchy Fog
Temp: 51
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 6
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 56
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 13
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 10
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 64
Precip: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
3-24-10
Low: 51
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
3-25-10
3-25-10
High: 75
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Friday
3-26-10
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
Saturday
3-27-10
Low: 46
High: 72
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10
Sunday
3-28-10
Palm Sunday
Palm Sunday
Low: 55
High: 71
Precip: 20%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15
Monday
3-29-10
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Tuesday
3-30-10
Low: 47
High: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tide Data @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 4:06a.m.
High: 12:38p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
171.52'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Low: 43
Normal Low: 52
Record Low: 25-1915
High: 70
Normal High: 73
Record High: 89-1910
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.06"
Normal Month to Date: 2.66"
Year to Date: 8.74"
Normal Year to Date: 11.46"
Record: 3.43"-1973
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 62
High 79
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 52
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 58
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:12a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:27p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tonight March 23
Full Moon- Tuesday March 30
Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6
New Moon- Wednesday April 14
This Date in Weather History...March 23: On this date in 1987, A blizzard raged across Western Kansas, and the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. Pampa, Texas received 21" of snow, and winds gusted to 78 mph (over hurricane force) at Dodge City, Kansas and Altus, Oklahoma. Governor Hayden of Kansas declared 46 counties in the Western half of Kansas a disaster area. In Southwest Kansas, the storm was described as the worst in 30 years.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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