SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a very nice Thursday across the forecast area as much drier air was in place. High pressure built into the area in the wake of the dual upper level lows which moved through on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ample sunshine was experienced, although there were some scattered clouds during the afternoon due to the close proximity of the wrap around backlash cloudiness from the outgoing upper level lows. It was very pleasant temperaturewise with highs reaching the low end of the 70s after morning lows in the mid to upper 40s. This is very seasonable for mid-March. Quiet weather is on tap tonight with high pressure in control. Clear skies and light winds prevail establishing ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight. Expect minimums to bottom out in the lower 40s. This is several degrees below normal for mid-March.
Friday & Friday Night...Enjoy the day! A fantastic Friday is in store with the high pressure in control, though it will slide Eastward during the day. This will result in the return of low-level moisture. This will be of inconsequential measures until very late in the day. The air mass in place should remain dry enough to preclude any development of clouds. Sunny skies are expected. After the cool start temperatures will warm up nicely to near the average of 70. The return flow becomes more pronounced Friday night, and this will certainly impact the forecast during this time. The return flow strengthens in response our next storm system gaining strength as it comes out of the Rockies. The established return flow will increase moisture in the low levels, and as a result clouds will begin to return to the region and a much milder temperature scheme will be noted. Expect overnight lows to be much closer to normal in the lower 50s. No rain chance is in the forecast just yet.
Saturday-Sunday...Saturday starts dry, but how does it finish? The much advertised strong cold front will be moving through our general vicinity during the evening hours, and this is the most likely time to see some adverse weather. Some scattered showers are expected to develop in the early afternoon hours as a sufficient amount of low level moisture will be in place by this time. This deeper moisture combined with daytime heating will likely produce some quick moving "streamer" showers. As the upper trough deepens, the strong trough pushes into our area Saturday evening, and showers and thunderstorms will jump into the likely category during that time frame. The prospects of severe weather need to be discussed in further detail at this point. I am still skeptical as to whether or not we will have anything in the way of severe weather. Models indicate some pretty good dynamics across the area, however, surface instability will be the biggest question mark. The greatest amount of surface instability will likely be just N of the forecast area, so I believe that is where the greatest chance of severe weather will reside. It is certainly feasible to mention the possibility of one or two isolated cells across our area especially with Jet Stream interaction and the position of a surface low that will form and move Eastward through the ARK-LA-TEX. The entire forecast area is highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather for day 3 (Saturday). The main threat across our area will be from damaging straight line winds in association with the MCS that is expected to develop along the front over Central Texas and move to the East through the evening. Isolated tornadoes will be possible, but mainly for the northern half of the forecast area. Large hail is in the equation as well to a lesser degree. The most likely time frame for significant weather across the forecast area will be between 4p.m. and 10p.m. Around 4p.m. for SE Texas, and into the Lake Charles area between 6 and 7p.m. and the Lafayette area between 8 and 9p.m. The squall line should clear the entire forecast area by midnight. The fast moving squall line will help to prevent a prolonged heavy rainfall event, but certainly some heavy rain will be likely with the thunderstorms along the front. Rainfall totals should be around an inch or less. A mild day is in store temperaturewise with highs reaching the lower 70s. A very quick turnaround is expected in the wake of the front Saturday night with strong CAA taking over. Rain will end by midnight, and there could be a brief period of post-frontal rains, but drier air will be moving in rather quickly. The rain ends quickly, but the clouds could hang around a bit longer. The ghost of winter will arrive as we head into Sunday morning with lows down into the mid to upper 30s. Saturday is the first day of spring (vernal equinox), and it will feel like it, but a certain shock to the system is in the offing behind this front. The much colder air takes over for the second half of the weekend. The clouds will hang tough into a portion of Sunday as the associated upper level low produces a wrap-around stratus deck across the area. This should pull away from the area during the day, and some sunshine is expected for the afternoon hours. It will be on the cool side with highs only reaching the mid 50s...some 15 degrees or so below normal. It'll feel colder than that with a strong NW wind up to 20 mph at times. High pressure builds in to produce clear and cold conditions for the end of the weekend.
Monday-Tuesday...A spring frost is likely area wide Monday morning. The winds will be much lighter Sunday night and skies will be crystal clear, thus setting the stage for excellent radiational cooling processes and the formation of frost towards morning. Temperatures will be well below normal to start the day Monday in the low to mid 30s, but certainly not into record territory. Full sunshine is expected with high pressure right over head, CAA will cease during the day. A modest warm up is expected with highs remaining well below normal. It may stay just shy of 60 degrees on average, but some locations will briefly crack the 60 degree mark. Air mass modification begins Monday night as the high orients itself to our East. Low temperatures under clear skies and a very light onshore flow will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Benign weather continues for Tuesday with a more significant warm up expected. Normal highs are in the lower 70s for this time of year, and the maximum will approach that value, likely missing it by just a few degrees.
Wednesday-Thursday...Low-level moisture increases on Wednesday with a strengthening onshore flow as another storm system develops in the lee of the Rockies. It appears now as though at least the daylight hours of Wednesday will be dry, but clouds will certainly be on the increase. Fog could be an issue for Wednesday morning with the established return flow. Significant temperature modification will ensue by this time with morning lows back into the low to mid 50s, and highs in the lower 70s. The next front will likely move through the area on Thursday, but should be close enough by Wednesday night to generate a few showers in advance. Rain chances are certainly in the forecast for the end of the period, but there is still a lot of uncertainty with the strength and timing of this next front. I believe with ample low-level moisture in place, and models progging a rather potent system rain chances in the likely category seem feasible. Severe weather could also factor into the equation on Thursday, but this solution is put on the backburner for now. Let's keep our focus on the Saturday system! Mild temperatures are expected as we round out the forecast period with morning lows in the mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s, actually trending above normal! Usual model uncertainty is present just beyond this forecast period as we approach Palm Sunday weekend. There is some speculation that the front could stall and not push through until next Friday, and this scenario would keep high rain chances in the forecast through then while temperatures remain mild. If weather folklore holds true, then there will most likely be one more cold snap as we approach Easter, but that's certainly way on down the road.
Listen to the audio blog for more specifics!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 44/69 52/72 38/54 0 0 0 40 70 20
LFT 44/70 51/72 39/55 0 0 0 30 70 20
BPT 45/71 53/72 37/55 0 0 0 40 70 20
AEX 40/70 48/71 35/53 0 0 0 30 70 20
POE 41/70 48/70 36/53 0 0 0 30 70 20
ARA 44/68 53/71 40/56 0 0 0 20 70 20
Tonight...Clear. Low 44. Light & Variable wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 69. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Partly Cloudy and Warmer. Low 52. SE wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Mostly Cloudy in the morning. Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. Windy. High 72. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Saturday Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely in the evening. Some heavy rainfall & isolated severe thunderstorms possible. Turning Windy & sharply colder. Low 38. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall totals up to 1".
Sunday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain early, becoming Mostly Sunny. Windy & Much Cooler. High 54. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, diminishing late.
Friday 3/19/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 44
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 51
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 69
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 9
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 64
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 59
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
3-19-10
Low: 43
High: 69
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 5-10
Saturday
3-20-10
First Day of Spring
Low: 52
High: 72
Precip: 30% PM...70% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
3-21-10
Low: 38
High: 54
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Monday
3-22-10
Low: 35
High: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
Tuesday
3-23-10
Low: 40
High: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Wednesday
3-24-10
High: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
3-25-10
High: 74
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet..
...Tide Data...
Friday Tide Data @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:41a.m. 11:51p.m.
High: 6:21a.m. 2:53p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
171.92'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Low: 47
Normal Low: 51
Record Low: 29-1893
High: 72
Normal High: 72
Record High: 85-1908
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.06"
Normal Month to Date: 2.06"
Year to Date: 8.74"
Normal Year to Date: 10.86"
Record: 1.50"-1888
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 48
High 77
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 40
High: 65
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 57
High: 80
Rain: 0.29"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:18a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:24p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday March 23
Full Moon- Tuesday March 30
Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6
New Moon- Wednesday April 14
This Date in Weather History...March 18: On this date in 1925, The Great "Tri-State Tornado" (Missouri, Illinois, & Indiana) occurred, the deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro, IL and 148 at West Frankfort, IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort, IL, and picked up sixteen students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes claimed an additional 97 lives that day.
March 18, 1952: The world record for rainfall was established over a 5 day period in Mid-March at Cilaos, Reunion Island. An amazing total of 151.73" of rain fell over that 5 day period. That's an average of 30.35" of rain per day.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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