SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It has been a murky March day across the area with low clouds and dense fog this morning, and a low cloud deck throughout the day with a few peek-a-boos from the sun this afternoon. It was on the mild side with temperatures easily reaching the low to mid 70s. There was not much in the way of rainfall, however, as the atmosphere over greater SW Louisiana remained largely capped in the mid and upper levels in the wake of yesterday's short wave. The area wasn't totally void of rainfall today as some scattered light showers occurred at random across the forecast area, and some ares of light rain and/or drizzle have developed this evening as the moist, unstable air mass remains in tact. The cold front that will displace the mugginess or 'gunk' as I like to call it is still back into East Texas between I-35 and I-45. It will trudge ESE overnight, and push through the forecast area Thursday morning. However, an upper level impulse out ahead of the front is what will produce any thunderstorm activity across the area tonight, if any.
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in response to this upper level impulse, however, the forecast area is largely null and void of such convection tonight. It is becoming more and more likely that this will continue to be the case as the aforementioned atmospheric cap will hold firm. The main energy from the upper level disturbance is bypassing the forecast area to the North, thus convection will likely not be able to erode the cap in place. This could change, but the latest sounding data from LCH indicates a strong cap which should preclude vertical growth of the clouds. It is the vertical growth that leads to thunderstorm genesis. However, it could be a long night for folks off to our North where a Tornado Watch is in effect, and a new Tornado Watch has just been issued for SE Louisiana including Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Every portion of the state is under a Tornado Watch except our forecast area. One Tornado Watch covers NW Louisiana and North Louisiana from Shreveport to Natchitoches to just North of Alexandria and back up to Ruston. A second watch covers the rest of North Louisiana and NE Louisiana from Monroe over into Mississippi. There is a still a chance that SW Louisiana could see some severe weather, and the issuance of a watch box, but again this seems almost insurmountable based on current data. I'll be watching the radar closely, but I believe you can rest comfortably, and I'll be able to get to bed at a decent hour myself. There is a squall line (MCS) developing ahead of the front from Arkansas stretching down through the Shreveport-Bossier City area, down towards Lufkin, TX. It is being monitored for back building as it moves steadily off to the ESE through the night. The threat for any thunderstorm development should end between midnight and 2a.m. With the idea that no storms will develop, I will lower rain chances below the likely category, but certainly with ample low-level moisture in place and the close proximity of the upper level impulse and the necessary lifting mechanism in place (cold front) some rain chances must remain in the forecast. I don't expect much other than that some light rain and/or drizzle off and on through the night. The biggest problem locally will be another bout of dense fog. Fog could become ubiquitous by morning with at least some fog across the entire forecast area, though it will be densest closest to the coast very similar to this morning. The expectant fog formation has prompted the NWS to issue a Dense Fog Advisory once again. Temperatures won't cool off too drastically tonight even with the frontal boundary bearing down on us as the cooler and much drier air lags behind a bit. Expect overnight lows to bottom out close to 60. Surface winds will remain light, but up at flight level winds are near 200 mph with a very strong Jet Stream overhead.
We get rid of rain chances entirely by sunrise Thursday, but the clouds will hang on a bit longer. Expect cloud dissipation to be a gradual process Thursday, but it will be dry after the fog scours out by mid-morning. Despite the cold front moving through, it will still be on the warm side Thursday with highs reaching the mid 70s...several notches above the normal for early March. The light onshore flow will be displaced by a light offshore flow during the day Thursday, but the air won't become noticeably cooler until Thursday night as a secondary cold front moves through. Skies will be clear and it will feel quite refreshing by this time, with no mention of fog heading into Friday morning. Expect the Friday minimum to be in the mid 40s. The weather will be back on cruise control for Friday through the weekend. Maybe this is one time, we want the gas pedal to stick! High pressure builds in Friday behind the secondary front. Afternoon highs should reach seasonable levels in the mid to upper 60s. Anything outdoors looks great this weekend, with spectacular spring weather expected. A continued NW flow at the surface and aloft will result in a decrease in temperatures by a few degrees each day especially for lows. Morning lows on Saturday should be in the low to mid 40s, while Sunday morning follows with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs will be in the mid 60s each day, and this is threatening the normal value for mid-March. I guess the only downside to the weekend is that it'll only be 47 hours of beautiful instead of 48 due to that dagblasted time change Saturday night/Sunday morning. It's time to Spring forward meaning we'll lose an hour of sleep. I'll leave it up to you to decide which weekend day will be prettier! I hope you get outside and do something to enjoy the weekend whether its watch some baseball, take the kids to the park, or stay home and BBQ or whatever !
The great weather continues to the start of the work week, but some changes will be hanging in the balance as we near the end of the forecast period. Temperatures begin moderating Monday as the prevailing offshore flow reverses course and becomes onshore by Monday with the shifting to the East. This will bring back the low-level moisture, and there could possibly be some patchy fog early, but this is something that will be re-evaluated down the road. Monday should be dry at least during the day as the return flow becomes more pronounced. This will conjure up an increase in clouds ahead of a developing cold front in the lee of the Rockies. Highs should top out near 70 on Monday after a morning low somewhere in the upper 40s to around 50. The next chance of rain is slated for the Monday Night-Tuesday period as our next cold front slices through. It is far too early to be very specific about rainfall amounts and severity of the system, but it doesn't appear to be a major weather maker, thus I only expect just a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm ahead of the front during this period. Rain chances are in the forecast for this period, but it is not an enormously high chance and is basically near climo (30%) for mid-March. Temperatures shouldn't change a whole lot on Tuesday with lows in the mid 40s and highs reaching the mid 60s. The chance of rain is maintained for the entire day Tuesday based on the timing uncertainties of the expected front. This front is progged to be on the strong side for mid-March with significantly cooler air taking over at the end of the forecast period on Wednesday. Strong CAA will take over, and in between the departing front and the building high there will likely be some cold air stratus in place, but with the higher sun angle as we approach the equinox, the sun should be able to burn off the cloud deck as the day progresses. A gradual clearing is expected during the day, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some lingering light rain and/or drizzle early in the day with the presence of a temperature inversion in the boundary layer. Temperatures will drop to below seasonable levels with lows in the lower 40s and highs around 60. Unseasonably cool and dry weather is expected for the end of next week which is just beyond this forecast period. A late season frost is possible around Thursday or Friday of next week if the current long range models are correct. More active weather with possible severe weather outbreaks will be possible over the last couple weeks of this month, but that's really not unusual for March in SW Louisiana.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/75 46/66 43/66 40 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 60/76 47/67 42/65 50 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 61/77 48/68 44/67 30 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 59/75 44/65 40/63 60 0 0 0 0 0
POE 59/75 45/65 41/64 60 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 62/76 50/68 44/66 50 0 0 0 0 0
*Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9a.m. Thursday.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of Dense Fog forming. Low 60. SSW wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Areas of Fog until mid-morning. Becoming Mostly Sunny. High 75. SW wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cooler. Low 46. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 66. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 43. North wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 66. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday 3/11/10 Daily Planner
7a.m.
Weather: Fog
Temp: 57
Precip:10%
Wind: SW 5
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 9
5p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: W 6
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
3-11-10
Low: 57
High: 75
Precip: 10%
Wind: SW 10
Friday
3-12-10
Low: 46
High: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: NW 10-15
Saturday
3-13-10
Low: 43
High: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
3-14-10
Daylight Savings Time Begins...Spring Forward
Low: 40
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
3-15-10
Low: 45
High: 70
Precip: 10%
Wind: SE 10
Tuesday
3-16-10
Low: 48
High: 63
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
Wednesday
3-17-10
St. Patrick's Day
Low: 42
High: 60
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
*Dense Fog Advisory.*
Thursday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Areas of fog in the morning.
Thursday Night...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 6:26a.m. 7:21p.m.
High: 1:27a.m. 10:25p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.28'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary....
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Low: 64
Normal Low: 50
Record Low: 26- 1996
High: 74
Normal High: 70
Record High: 89- 1911
Precipitation
Today: 0.02"
Month to Date: 0.81"
Normal Month to Date: 1.10"
Year to Date: 8.49"
Normal Year to Date: 9.90"
Record: 2.50"- 1926
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Dense Fog
Light Rain
Sunrise Thursday: 6:27a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:19p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Monday March 15
First Quarter- Tuesday March 23
Full Moon- Tuesday March 30
Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6
...This Date in Weather History...March 10: It was a hot March day across the Central and Southwest U.S. as many record highs were established on this date in 1989. An all-time March record for the state of Utah was established at Hanksville with a high of 85. The all-time March high for the city of Pueblo, CO of 86 degrees was tied. Perhaps, the most amazing stat on this date occurred in Kansas when the temperature at Hill City rose an astonishing 59 degrees from a morning low of 30 to an afternoon high of 89 degrees.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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