Happy St. Patrick's Day, all ye lads and lasses!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today's forecast panned out almost perfectly! Morning low clouds gave way to some afternoon clouds as the areas was in between upper level impulses. The first one vacated the region in the early morning hours bringing an end to the pesky light rain we experienced Tuesday. The first one generally moved right over SW Louisiana early this morning. The secondary impulse was much weaker, and gave the forecast area a glancing blow as it is centered over Western Mississippi at this time. The western edge of the cloud flank is over the eastern flank of the forecast area with Acadiana blanketed in a low cloud deck tonight. This cloud deck will slowly push east overnight, clearing the entire forecast area by midnight or shortly thereafter. Some very light showers have developed underneath this stratus canopy, but these are very spotty and very light in nature. Expect rainfall amounts in these areas to be inconsequential. Temperatures warmed up respectfully into the upper 60s to lower 70s today (climatology) with the cloud and sun mix this afternoon. Skies are clear or will be clearing overnight, and temperatures will fall off nicely well into the 40s by morning. Expect it to be on the cool side with Thursday morning minimums in the low to mid 40s area wide. This type of set up favors fairly uniform temperatures. A quiet night is in store, but as the clouds clear there could also be an issue with the development of fog after midnight with residual low-level moisture in place, but the atmosphere is drying out as the ULL pulls away, so it should not be a major problem.
Thursday-Friday....A return of stellar spring weather is in the offing. Not much has change with respect to forecast reasoning since last night's forecast package. An area of high pressure over the Great Plains will be ridging into the forecast area providing the great weather for Thursday. Winds will be on the light side, and highs will reach near climatological values ranging from the mid 60s to around 70. Quiet weather expected Thursday night with clear skies and near calm winds setting us up perfectly for radiational cooling. Lows will be very similar to that of tonight in the 40-45 range. The shear perfection continues into Friday with the high pressure in place. The high will shift Eastward during the day, and be oriented over the SE U.S. by Friday afternoon. This will result in the commencement of a return flow of Gulf moisture, albeit subtle at first. It should not be enough to interfere with the crystal clear skies. Friday will also be a near carbon copy with respect to temperatures with readings topping out close to 70, give or take a degree. Enjoy!
Saturday & Sunday...Again, not much has changed concerning forecast reasoning since last night. As the return flow commences Friday, our next storm system will undergo its genesis out West. It comes in the form of a rather potent Pacific cold front. This front will tap into some available Subtropical Jet Stream energy over Northern Mexico, and this will come together as it slides Eastward and affects the forecast area Saturday. I mentioned that there were timing issues, and this still is the case, however, there is ultimate unanimity with the models that the front will arrive late in the day Saturday. The morning should be dry, and just feature an increase in clouds that will carry over from Friday night. It will be much milder as well as morning lows start out around 50. It will become increasingly breezy throughout the day as well with the associated pressure anomalies that are commonplace with cold fronts. Some scattered activity is expected to develop after lunch Saturday, and become more numerous as the afternoon progresses. An MCS (squall line) will likely initiate over Central Texas out ahead of the front. This line will plow Eastward and move through the area Saturday evening into Saturday night. At this time, it seems the most likely time for the worst of the weather to arrive will be between 5p.m. and 10p.m. There will be a chance for a brief period of post-frontal rain, but the atmosphere will dry out rapidly in the wake of the front. What about severe weather? I am not convinced there will be severe weather at this point, though some models still hint at the possibility. I want to wait one more day before getting more specific about the possibility of severe weather. I believe the best dynamics will bypass the forecast area to the North. The fast moving nature of the cold front should limit rainfall amounts to less than an inch. Rainfall chances will be in the likely category, but I don't believe they'll max out. Mild conditions are expected ahead of the front with highs reaching the lower 70s. A big slap in the face will occur behind the front for Sunday. Temperatures will fall off rapidly Saturday night with minimums for Sunday morning likely in the upper 30s. Skies will clear quickly as well. Sunday should be a sunny day, but on the breezy side with winds over 20 mph at times from the NNW. Temperatures will be about 12-15 degrees below the seasonal norm on Sunday with highs only in the mid 50s. It'll feel cooler than that with the breeze and strong CAA.
Monday-Tuesday...Sunny days, but Monday will be well below normal temperaturewise. A spring frost is likely area wide Monday morning with strong high pressure in control. Lighter winds and clear skies on Sunday night will set the stage for radiative cooling to reach a maximum. The coldest locations could actually flirt with the freezing mark, but the average low will be in the mid 30s first thing Monday morning. A decent warm up is expected with highs reaching the low to mid 60s...still several degrees below normal. Tuesday will turn out to be a day of transition, maybe similar to Friday. It will feature another cool start with lows in the low to mid 40s. Afternoon highs will rebound closer to the normal for mid-late March. High pressure situated right overhead Monday will push to the East on Tuesday, thus, a return flow should initiate. Another storm system will be looming out West at this time.
Wednesday & Beyond...The looming storm over the Rockies will send its cold front our way at the end of the forecast period. This should bring about our next mention of rain. There should be enough low-level moisture in place at this time for the generation of showers and possibly some thunderstorms. It is by far too early to be specific about the intensity of this system, and whether or not it will have some severe weather with it. There are even some models that suggest no rain at all for this time frame, as they indicate an absence of sufficient low-level moisture, and just an increase in clouds as the front moves through. Time will tell. Let's get past the weekend system first before we hone in on this one. For now, an indication of a small chance of rain will suffice. A milder temperature regime is slated regardless of how the system evolves. Morning lows should be around 50 while afternoon highs reach or eclipse 70...sounds like normal to me! The extended period beyond this forecast period looks uncertain with respect to the mid-week system. Model runs flip flop on the idea of it tapping into STJ energy and forming a Gulf low keeping rain over the area or a quick, one and done scenario like Saturday. Could this be a more significant severe weather outbreak? We'll see as next week evolves.
Listen to the audio blog for more specifics!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/67 43/69 51/70 0 0 0 0 0 30
LFT 45/67 43/69 50/71 0 0 0 0 0 30
BPT 44/68 45/70 53/70 0 0 0 0 0 40
AEX 42/66 40/70 48/68 0 0 0 0 0 30
POE 42/66 41/70 49/68 0 0 0 0 0 30
ARA 45/67 43/68 52/70 0 0 0 0 0 30
Tonight...Becoming Mostly Clear and Cool. Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 43. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Sunny. High 67. NW wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 43. Calm wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 69. Light & variable wind becoming South up to 10 mph.
Friday Night...Becoming Partly Cloudy and Warmer. Low 51. SE wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy in the morning, becoming Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. Becoming more numerous late. High 70. Breezy. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday 3/18/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear w/ Areas of Patchy Fog
Temp: 44
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 51
Precip: 0%
Wind: NW 7
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 61
Precip: 0%
Wind: NW 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: NW 9
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 62
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 2
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
3-18-10
Low: 43
High: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: NW 5-10
Friday
3-19-10
Low: 43
High: 69
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 5-10
Saturday
3-20-10
Low: 51
High: 70
Precip: 30% PM...60% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
3-21-10
Low: 37
High: 56
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Monday
3-22-10
Low: 35
High: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: North 5-10
Tuesday
3-23-10
Low: 41
High: 65
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Wednesday
3-24-10
High: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers late in the evening.
Thursday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet building to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday...West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tide Data @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:06a.m. 11:10p.m.
High: 5:17a.m. 3:05p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.13'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Low: 51
Normal Low: 51
Record Low: 29-1913
High: 71
Normal High: 72
Record High: 84-1982
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.06"
Normal Month to Date: 1.94"
Year to Date: 8.74"
Normal Year to Date: 10.74"
Record: 3.60"-1987
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 52
High 73
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 42
High: 62
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 58
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:19a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:23p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday March 23
Full Moon- Tuesday March 30
Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6
New Moon- Wednesday April 14
This Date in Weather History...March 17: Not the luck of the Irish! Showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving cold front produced torrential rains across parts of the southeastern U.S. over a two day period. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 22 persons, including thirteen in Alabama. Up to 16 inches of rain deluged Southern Alabama, with 10.63 inches reported at Mobile, AL in 24 hours. The town of Elba, AL was flooded with 6 to 12 feet of water causing more than 25 million dollars damage, and total flood damage across Alabama exceeded 100 million dollars. Twenty-six counties in the state were declared disaster areas.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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