SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Clouds were stubborn to vacate the area today in the wake of yesterday's soaker. Wrap-around cloudiness and a low-level temperature inversion (moisture in the boundary layer) kept a stratus deck over the majority of the forecast area today. However, clouds have cleared over a large portion of the forecast area tonight, and for areas that remain underneath the low stratus deck, clearing will occur soon. As a result of the overcast conditions, temperatures were held down to below seasonal levels as the overcast conditions and steady CAA negated maximum daytime heating potential. High temperatures reached the mid to upper 50s, but this is still some 10 degrees or so below the norm for early March. High pressure will build into the forecast area on Wednesday, and dominate the weather for the rest of the week. Clear skies and light winds tonight will create maximum radiational cooling conditions. Expect a cold start to Wednesday with some patchy frost expected along and North of I-10. Lows should range from the low 30s north to the upper 30s along the coast. 34 sounds like a good target number for Lake Charles. It will be a beautiful night with a full moon in place.
This could turn out to be one of the shortest discussions I've ever written, and here's why. The tranquil weather pattern will be en vogue from Wednesday into the weekend. Temperature moderation will be a gradual process, but we'll finally enjoy some splendid spring, marvelous March weather. The kind of weather that everyone is craving, after a seemingly endless winter in SW Louisiana. This time it'll be for more than a day or two as well...there's some great news! We desperately need to dry out anyway. Sunny skies are expected for the middle to latter half of the work week. This will be weather more typical of March. After a cold start Wednesday, highs will be around 60, still below normal but pleasantly cool nonetheless. The warm up continues in stair-step pattern Thursday. Another frosty start is possible with readings in the mid to upper 30s across the area, while afternoon highs inch closer to normal reaching the low to mid 60s. That's about perfect in my opinion! Friday looks great. The controlling high will slip Eastward a bit by this time, so it may not be as strong across the area. However, upper level ridging processes are expected keeping the dry regime in place. A very light return flow commences Friday due to the orientation of the surface high. The deep low-level moisture has been shunted well out into the Gulf, so it will take awhile for the humidity to make a noticeable difference in the weather. The warm up continues with lows still a bit below normal around 40 while highs reach the mid 60s. Perfect weather for outdoor activities!
The weekend offers up some changes but it should remain dry. Saturday will likely be the prettiest day of the weekend with very little in the way of cloud cover expected with a continued light onshore flow. The upper level ridging remains in tact. The benign weather continues, and so does the warming trend. Temperatures should be very close to normal for early March by the weekend, and reach above normal levels by Sunday. Some cloudiness is expected by Sunday as our next storm system approaches coming out of the Rockies. Deeper low-level moisture will return, offering up a cloud deck by afternoon with Partly Cloudy skies expected. The Pacific storm system should still be a good distance away from the forecast area, to keep rain chances absent from the forecast. Thus, a rain-free forecast is maintained through the weekend forecast period. Rain chances do return at the end of the period early next week in associated with the next Pacific cold front and associated digging trough. This far out there are still model discrepancies as you would gather. They diverge on strength and timing. A blend of the models suggests inserting a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Monday. There is some hint that a small rain chance could be introduced for Sunday, but I will nix that idea for now, and confine rain chances to Monday as the front creates the necessary forcing and lift to generate shower and thunderstorm activity. This time around, the forecast area should be in the warm sector as temperatures will have moderated into the above normal category reaching the lower 70s by Sunday. This time of year this can often mean a severe weather threat, but it is simply too soon to make this call. Either way, rain chances seem like a good call for Monday. Some fluctuation in rain chances is expected over the next few days, but for now rain chances inserted for this period will be in the likely category as moisture levels should be more than sufficient for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Rain should come to an end Monday night. This system moves quickly, and nice weather returns for the end of the period Tuesday. Somewhat cooler weather is expected in its wake, but the air mass is Pacific in nature, so nothing real cold is anticipated. Temperatures will be at or just slightly below seasonal norms to round out the forecast period.
Looking beyond the forecast period briefly...March is typically the time when many people start to plant their gardens, etc. The time to do this is approaching, although I wouldn't suggest doing so quite yet. We may not quite be done with winter just yet. Models suggest a surge of Arctic air infiltrating the region towards the middle of the month...beware the Ides of March! Looking at the middle to end of next week...milder weather continues, but the active storm parade does as well. Models show two more wet systems between the 10th and 13th. The colder air would follow after the second system. This is all out for deliberation because at this point this is simply a guess, and anything beyond 7 days is simply just watching for trend, not a forecast by any means.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 34/60 36/62 40/65 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 33/59 35/61 39/64 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 35/60 38/63 42/65 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 30/57 30/60 35/62 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 28/58 31/60 35/62 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 33/59 36/61 40/64 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cold. Low 34. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Sunny and Warmer. High 60. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold. Low 35. Calm wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 62. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 40. East wind 5 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 65. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday 3/3/10 Daily Planner
7a.m.
Weather: Clear, Cold
Temp: 34
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 3
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 7
5p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
3-3-10
Low: 34
High: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Thursday
3-4-10
Low: 36
High: 62
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Friday
3-5-10
Low: 40
High: 65
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Saturday
3-6-10
Low: 43
High: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Sunday
3-7-10
Low: 47
High: 69
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
3-8-10
Low: 55
High: 71
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
3-9-10
Low: 45
High: 65
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Wednesday...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less in the morning then 2 feet or less.
Wednesday Night...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less.
Thursday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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