SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...You simply couldn't ask for better weather for Spring Break or for anything! We've been on quite a streak of nice weather lately, but the question is will it continue? I will have the answer in just a bit. Let's set it up first! Today was absolutely beautiful with wall to wall sunshine, very low humidity, and pleasant temperatures in the low to mid 70s. It was a bit on the cool side this morning with lows in the mid 40s. The beautiful weather today was as a result of a large area of high pressure that is in control over the Southern U.S. Clear skies and cool temperatures will prevail again tonight with a full moon in place. Low temperatures will be very close to that of last night, generally in the low to mid 40s. Winds will generally be calm with the high pressure anchored over SW Louisiana. There will perhaps be a hint of a south wind by sunrise as the high slowly shifts Eastward, but it appears that it will be largely insignificant with respect to temperatures.
The answer to the question posed above, in short, is yes! Tuesday promises to be another splendid spring day with the dominating high pressure in control, though it will continue sliding Eastward over the Northern Gulf waters through the day. This will bring back an onshore flow, but it will quite subtle at first, such that moisture return will not be noticeable. Humidity values will remain on the low side. Temperatures will be similar to that of Monday with low to mid 70s for maximums once again after a chilly late March morning. Not much needs to be said about the weather through mid-week at least. The beautiful weather will continue, and a moderating temperature trend will continue as well. A more pronounced Southerly flow will become established we get into Wednesday, but the humidity values will still be rather pleasant. A few clouds could dot the landscape during the afternoon with the presence of more low-level moisture, but with high pressure in control in the mid and upper levels cloud development should continue to be suppressed. Moderating temperatures will result from the presence of the onshore flow. Expect morning lows to be closer to normal in the lower 50s while afternoon highs easily top out in the mid 70s, with a few locations reaching the upper end of the 70s. Patchy fog could be present at any location briefly on any morning before the sun works its magic.
We will begin to see some more noticeable changes for the second half of the week. The weather will remain dry for Thursday and Good Friday, but it will certainly be more humid. Winds will strengthen off the Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens across the forecast area. This will be in response to a developing Southern tracker Pacific storm system which will be taking shape over the Desert Southwest and the Rockies at this time. The warming trend will continue with lows approaching the mid 50s while Thursday highs approach the mid to upper 70s. More humidity will be present, and some clouds are expected in the afternoon hours, but all in all it will still be a nice day on Thursday. Good Friday looks to be bordering on the warm category. The developing Pacific storm system will be moving into Texas on Friday with showers and a few thunderstorms out that way, while across SW Louisiana clouds will increase along with temperatures and humidity. The atmosphere will remain capped in the mid and upper levels, but ample low-level moisture will be present. Air mass modification will result in trending temperatures towards above normal levels. Morning lows by Good Friday will be close to 60, and believe it or not highs should be around 80. Break out the shorts, anyone???
The weather remains dry through the day on Good Friday, but rain chances could return for Friday night, and will certainly return for Saturday. There are still some timing and intensity issues in regards to the Pacific storm system. However, you may recall this is the same system that I've been talking about for over a week now. Models continue to be very consistent with a Saturday arrival. Recent model runs have been wanting to speed up this system and its associated cold front. However, there is some question as to whether or not it makes it all the way through the forecast area. At this time, it appears that the front will be close enough to the forecast area during the overnight hours Friday to weaken the cap, and as a result some shower activity will develop across the area. At this same time, more organized shower and thunderstorm activity will be taking shape over Texas. All of this will congeal into a squall line (MCS) along the Eastward moving front Friday night, and work into SW Louisiana Saturday. Based on the current trends, I will mention a morning arrival of said MCS, but retain rain chances into the afternoon hours as it slows down over the forecast area. I will reflect the possibility of the front stalling out over the forecast area for a short time Saturday, but this remains to be seen. Regardless, of timing, the set up with this system favors a significant severe weather outbreak across the forecast area. A surface low will likely develop Friday as Jet Stream energy gets involved as the system ejects Eastward. It is still a bit early to pinpoint with much specificity about what kind of severe weather, and where it will occur. All modes of severe weather certainly can't be ruled out, and further fine tuning is inevitable in the coming days. Keep all of this in mind if you have any outdoor plans Saturday. The mild temperature regime will be retained for this period ahead of the cold front with a low about 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Rain chances will be in the likely category for Saturday, regardless of any severe weather threat. Rainfall amounts could exceed 1", and beginning tomorrow I'll show the usual precipitation forecast map. Improvement is noted by Saturday night.
What about that all important Easter forecast? Right now, Easter Sunday itself is shaping up fairly nice. The Saturday front will have either dissipated or pushed through the area by this time resulting in the improving weather conditions. Some lingering showers can't be ruled out Saturday night into very early Easter Sunday morning as some residual moisture hangs over the area for a brief time before drier air takes over in all levels of the atmosphere. Clearing skies and only slightly cooler temperatures take over on Easter Sunday. This should pose no problems for the Easter Bunny. Umbrellas can stay in the car as you head out to Easter services. Temperatures will fall back just a few degrees with mid 50s for lows and highs remaining near normal in the mid 70s. Mild weather rounds out the forecast period on Monday, the day after Easter. Surface high pressure should build in with seasonable temperatures with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s while highs reach the mid 70s. This is normal for the first week of April. Stay tuned for more on the weekend storm throughout the week!
Listen to the audio blog for more specific weather information!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/73 50/75 54/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 42/73 49/75 52/79 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 45/74 52/76 56/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 40/72 48/75 50/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 41/73 49/75 50/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 44/73 50/75 55/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 43. Calm wind.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 73. South wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 50. SE wind 5 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 75. South wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 54. South wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 78. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 3/30/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Cool
Temp: 43
Precip: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 4
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 65
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 7
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 8
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 6
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
3-30-10
Low: 43
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 5-10
Wednesday
3-31-10
Low: 50
High: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
Thursday
4-1-10
Holy Thursday
April Fool's Day
Low: 54
High: 78
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
4-2-10
Good Friday
Low: 61
High: 79
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
4-3-10
Low: 63
High: 77
Precip: 70%
Wind: SSE/SSW 20-25
Sunday
4-4-10
Easter Sunday
Low: 54
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: WSW/NNW 10-15
Monday
MLB Opening Day
Easter Monday
Low: 51
High: 76
Precip: 0%
Wind: W 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Tuesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas building to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:23a.m. 9:54p.m.
High: 3:29a.m. 2:22p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
171.03'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, March 29, 2010
Low: 46
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 35-1913
High: 74
Normal High: 74
Record High: 89-1909
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.60"
Normal Month to Date: 3.32"
Year to Date: 9.28"
Normal Year to Date: 12.12"
Record: 3.33"-1949
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 42
High 71
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 49
High: 73
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 50
High: 82
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:30p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tuesday March 30
Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6
New Moon- Wednesday April 14
First Quarter- Wednesday April 21
This Date in Weather History...March 29: The date of March 29 was a rough one for Louisiana during the course of a 4 year stretch in the late 80s. In 3 out of those 4 years (1987, 1988, and 1990) severe weather outbreaks occurred. I should also note that strong storms occurred in 1989. In 1987, thunderstorms spawned tornadoes in Mississippi, and produced high winds and heavy rain here in Louisiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 92 mph at Houma, and caused a million dollars damage in Terrebonne Parish. Avondale was deluged with 4.52 inches of rain. In the following year in 1988, severe thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured two persons at Bunkie, and produced high winds which down a large tree onto a trailer at Bastrop,claiming the life of one child and injuring another. Finally, in 1990, thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes, including one which injured seven persons at Gray, LA. Thunderstorms also produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Port O'Connor TX, and produced up to six inches of rain in Beauregard Parish.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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