Monday, March 22, 2010
This is not a political blog, and I vowed from the beginning to never stray far from the sole purpose of this blog..."weather". Most everyone knows my political views, so I will not disclose that information here if you don't know. However, based on the events of the past 24 hours I felt compelled to include a quote from our great 3rd President...
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have."
~ Thomas Jefferson
That's it, if you more than that about politics you're in the wrong place here, now onto the forecast discussion...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a difference a day makes! It felt a lot more like Spring today with full sunshine and surface high pressure in place. It was a chilly start this morning with lows around 40. The high pressure in control resulted in a very dry air mass, and in turn that resulted in a quick warm up with a very large diurnal range. Temperatures warmed up into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This was some 20-25 degrees warmer than the highs on Sunday. Sunday was definitely a cold day by March standards, but did you know the actual high Sunday was cooler than the average high in January. Sunday was cloudy, cold, & windy in the wake of the strong cold front which pushed through Saturday. A low stratus deck hung around throughout the day Sunday in response to wrap around backlash cloudiness via the upper level low on the backside of the front. Thankfully, it was just a cold snap and it's just a memory now. High pressure is in complete control tonight and clear skies and dry air remain in tact as well. This will certainly set the stage for another cool night, but not quite as cold as the previous 2 nights. Expect lows to drop into the low to mid 40s, still several degrees below normal, but this will be the last night of that for a little while. Great weather continues for Tuesday with full sunshine and high temperatures near normal in the lower 70s. The controlling high pressure will slide Eastward during the day, thus commencing a low level return flow by the afternoon, but this will be inconsequential until later periods. Some high clouds could filter through the upper levels from time to time on Tuesday, but all in all it'll be a terrific Tuesday.
Tuesday Night-Wednesday...Dry weather will persist through Wednesday, but changes are inevitable at this time. Our next weather maker will be getting its act together over the Rockies and Great Plains during this time. As the high pressure overhead now continues its Eastward progression, a strengthening low-level onshore flow will occur bringing back the humidity in earnest. Clouds will also begin to return during the overnight hours heading into Wednesday morning. While dry weather is expected, some patchy fog can't be ruled out by sunrise Wednesday with the more pronounced low-level onshore flow and the temperature differential between the land and water. This will be a more likely proposition near the coast. I don't expect it to be a huge problem, because winds should stay up just enough to produce continued mixing in the atmosphere that precludes the development of widespread fog. This weather maker, our next cold front, will be approaching on Wednesday as a trough is carved out in the Great Plains to help push the system along. Wednesday stays dry, but there will certainly be some clouds. It'll likely end up being a mix of clouds and sun for Wednesday. Temperatures will be much milder for minimums Wednesday, and much closer to normal. Expect to start the day out with readings in the mid 40s up North and lower 50s down South. The warming trend continues in earnest Wednesday with maximums reaching the low to mid 70s. This is just about normal for late March. The next system encroaches by Wednesday night, but for the time being this period is kept dry as the main lifting mechanism will still far enough to our West to keep the atmosphere capped preventing any rainfall just yet. The mild weather continues with lows reaching into above normal territory.
Thursday...Our next chance of rain. Not much change really as far as the timing of this system is noted. Now, that we're about 2.5-3 days away from this event, it's time to get more specific wrt to severe weather as that is always of interest this time of year. The dynamics just aren't there, so no severe weather is expected. That's very good news because we are in prime time spring storm season around these parts. That being said, while there is still some model disagreement on how much rain will occur on Thursday, it seems inevitable that most of us will see some rain. It could be very similar to this past Saturday. I don't expect more than 1/2" of rain at this time as this should be another fast mover. I know you always like to have a time frame when it comes to rain, so here you go! Based on the latest model data, it looks like an afternoon event. I will narrow the time frame down as we get closer to the event, but for now a time frame of noon-6p.m. seems feasible. I do believe there could be just enough instability and lift for a few thunderstorms, but certainly no severe weather is expected. Showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the front over East Texas early on Thursday, and progress Eastward through the day. The spring warmth will continue with morning lows in the upper 50s, and afternoon highs in the mid 70s. Some model output indicates upper 70s as there could be enough sunshine to warm up temperatures even further than indicated. The front should quickly move on through based on the current data, and improving conditions take over Thursday night, but cloudiness will linger as it will take drier air a bit longer to take over in the mid and upper levels.
Friday & the Weekend...Unlike the last front, there's not a whole lot of cold air behind the advancing trough, so very little change in temperature is expected. Clouds may linger into the early daylight hours on Friday, but high pressure will become established during the day, so clearing should occur quickly and it'll be a nice end to the work week. Somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the morning with a low around 50, while the afternoon high will be around 70. This is essentially normal. Saturday looks beautiful with the pleasant temperatures continuing. Temps could start out in the upper 40s, but nothing overly cold. Low to possibly mid 70s are expected for highs. It looks great for anything outdoors! Some minor changes are expected for Sunday. Another front will be approaching, and likely move through at some point on Sunday. Timing is still bit uncertain, but regardless of timing, moisture looks limited. There is decent consistency that all dynamics will be far removed from the forecast area, so that mainly just clouds will affect the region ahead of the front. However, a very small chance of rain can't be ruled out, and I will reflect this for the time being. (<20%). Nothing of consequence is expected. The temperatures will remain similar to that of Saturday. Low to mid 50s are expected for lows, and highs should be in the lower 70s. It will be a bit cooler in the afternoon depending on the timing of the front. A return flow will likely set up by Saturday evening, but it will quickly return to an offshore flow Sunday afternoon. All in all, it doesn't look like a bad Palm Sunday weekend at all.
Monday & the Extended...The end of the forecast period looks quiet. High pressure will become re-established in the wake of the Sunday front. This front could be a bit stronger temperaturewise. Sunny skies are expected with lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs in the mid 60s. This is a bit below normal once again, but maybe this is the usual "Easter Cool Snap" as weather folklore suggests, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way, it doesn't look as cold as this last front, but it may be a bit cool for some of you Spring Breakers. Spring Break comes the week before Easter this year. Beyond the forecast period, the good news most of Spring Break Week 2010 is looking mighty fine. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature for the majority of the week. A warming trend will be in store as well, and dare I say that we could see some low 80s by the latter half of that week. The very early prognostication for Easter is sunny and pleasant with seasonable temperatures.
Listen to the audio blog for specifics!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/71 50/72 57/74 0 0 0 0 0 60
LFT 44/70 49/73 56/75 0 0 0 0 0 60
BPT 46/72 51/73 58/75 0 0 0 0 0 70
AEX 41/73 45/75 53/71 0 0 0 0 0 60
POE 41/73 45/75 54/71 0 0 0 0 0 60
ARA 44/71 51/72 58/74 0 0 0 0 0 60
Tonight...Clear & Cool. Low 45. Light SW wind.
Tuesday..Sunny. High 71. South wind 10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy with some Patchy Fog. Low 50. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 72. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 57. SSE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Cloudy with showers & a few thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty late. Chance of rain is 60%.
Tuesday 3/23/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 45
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
3-23-10
Low: 45
High: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: South 10
Wednesday
3-24-10
3-24-10
High: 72
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
3-25-10
Low: 57
High: 74
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
Friday
3-26-10
Low: 50
High: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Saturday
3-27-10
Low: 46
High: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Sunday
3-28-10
Palm Sunday
High: 72
Precip: 10%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
Monday
3-29-10
Low: 45
High: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tide Data @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 2:49a.m.
High: 3:20p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
171.66'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, March 22, 2010
Low: 40
Normal Low: 52
Record Low: 27-1915
High: 71
Normal High: 73
Record High: 90-1910
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.06"
Normal Month to Date: 2.54"
Year to Date: 8.74"
Normal Year to Date: 11.34"
Record: 1.50"-1901
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 54
High 78
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 61
High: 81
Rain: 0.24"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 60
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:13a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:26p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday March 23
Full Moon- Tuesday March 30
Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6
New Moon- Wednesday April 14
This Date in Weather History...March 22: In the contiguous 48 states it isn't very often that we get to see the magnificent Northern Lights. However, on this date in 1920 much of the lower 48 saw quite a show! The Northern Lights were visible as far South as Bradenton, Florida, El Paso, Texas, and Fresno, California. In Detroit, Michigan the display was described as "so brilliant as to blot out all start below first magnitude."
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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