Wednesday, November 24, 2010
The forecast discussion is coming up momentarily. This will be my final
forecast discussion before Thanksgiving. Depending on the weather
situation overnight Thursday into Friday, I will resume updating the blog Sunday Night. First, I wanted to take time out to post my Thanksgiving
message. Please scroll down afterward for the video blog and the text form of the forecast!
What is Thanksgiving? Thanksgiving is a special time to gather with
family, friends, and loved ones and give thanks for the many blessings
we have in our lives, and enjoy tons of food and football. It all
started back in 1621 when the Pilgrims celebrated the first Thanksgiving
as a way of thanking God for a good harvest. Of course, we celebrate a
bit differently here in modern times. Although Thanksgiving wasn't
officially declared a national holiday by Congress until 1941, it was
first declared as a day of thanksgiving by President Abraham Lincoln in
October of 1863. Lincoln issued a proclamation from Washington, D.C. on
October 3, 1863 in the midst of the Civil War. Here is the great
manuscript from one of our greatest presidents.
"The year that is drawing toward its close has been filled with the
blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties,
which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source
from which they come, others have been added which are of so
extraordinary a nature that they can not fail to penetrate and soften
even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever-watchful
providence of Almighty God.
"In the midst of a civil war of
unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign
states to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been
preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have
been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere, except
in the theater of military conflict, while that theater has been
greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.
"Needful
diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful
industry to the national defense have not arrested the plow, the
shuttle, or the ship; the ax has enlarged the borders of our
settlements, and the mines, as well as the iron and coal as of our
precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore.
Population has steadily increased notwithstanding the waste that has
been made in the camp, the siege, and the battlefield, and the country,
rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is
permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.
"No
human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these
great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who,
while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless
remembered mercy.
"It has seemed to me fit and proper that
they should be solemnly, reverently, and gratefully acknowledged, as
with one heart and one voice, by the whole American people. I do
therefore invite my fellow-citizens in every part of the United States,
and also those who are in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the
last Thursday of November next as a day of thanksgiving and praise to
our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the heavens. And I recommend to
them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such
singular deliverances and blessings they do also, with humble penitence
for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender
care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners, or sufferers
in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and
fervently implore the imposition of the Almighty hand to heal the
wounds of the nation and to restore it, as soon as may be consistent
with the divine purpose, to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony,
tranquility, and union.
"In testimony whereof I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed."
-Abraham Lincoln-
As we celebrate Thanksgiving 2010...I ask What are you thankful for? I
know what I'm thankful for. First and foremost, I am thankful to God.
God has blessed me with a great family, girlfriend, and friends. The love and support
they give me is the best anyone could hope for. He has blessed me many
times over in my life. I have a great home, and enjoy great meals
everyday. I am thankful to live in such a beautiful place, Lake Charles,
LA. This is home, and will always be home. I am blessed with good
health. I am so thankful that God has helped me achieve what I have
achieved so far in my life, and pray that there is so much more yet to
achieve. I am thankful that I am able to do what God has willed me to
do. I am so blessed that He has provided for all my needs, and I know He
always will. I am so thankful that He is always there no matter what,
and He knows all of what is going on in my life, and I am thankful that I
know if He leads me to it, He'll lead me through it. Without Him I
would have nothing, I would be nothing. Thank you, God, you get all the
glory!!!
I am thankful to my parents...the best parents anyone could ever have!
They've been monumental in helping my get where I am today, and without
their support I couldn't have done it. With all my many struggles
through school, they never gave up on me. God truly blessed me with
great parents! Thank you mom and dad!
I am thankful for my wonderfully awesome girlfriend, Lucy, who loves me unconditionally. She supports me every step of the way, and allows me to be me. We've been together almost a year now, and this time together has been the most special time in my whole life. God has blessed me with the best and most special girlfriend anyone could have, and I look forward to all that He has planned for us in the future. Thank you, babe for always being there, and always believing in me. I love you so much!
I am thankful that I live in the greatest country in the world...the
United States of America! I am thankful for the many freedoms that go
along with that, and for such brave men and women in the United States
Military that fight to keep our country free. They truly are our real
heroes, and I thank all of you for your service to this country, past,
present, and future. My thoughts and prayers are with all of you
wherever you are around the world or here at home. God bless you and God
bless America!
There are so many people who are less fortunate than myself and many of
us out there. This, and every Thanksgiving, we remember those less
fortunate than we are. We remember those who aren't able to enjoy all of
the same freedoms that we do no matter what their situation is. This
has been a tough year economically for many. Whether people have had a
rough year economically, mentally, physically, etc. we pause to think
about all of you. I pray that God watches over you, and provides for you
in every way soon.
As we gather with our family and friends for a great meal and great time
together this weekend, I hope that you will remember to pause and pray
for those less fortunate, and to thank God for all He has blessed you
with in your life. Also, as we head into the Christmas season, and all
of the hustle and bustle that comes with it...lest you not forget the
real and only Reason for the Season, Our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ!
Please keep Christ in Christmas!!!
On a lighter note, and in closing, thank all of you who have viewed the
blog since its inception in August of 2009. Thank you for coming here for all the weather
information you need. I hope that you will continue to do so, and help
me gain viewership by spreading the word. Weather is my dream and my
passion, and I am so dedicated to this. Thank you for letting me share
some weather knowledge with you! It is your viewership that helps me
keep this blog as fresh as possible. Look for bigger and better things
to come on this blog in the near future. God bless all of you, and may
His many blessings rain down on you this holiday season, and forever.
Thank you, God bless, and Happy Thanksgiving! Now onto the forecast
discussion...
The blog is in holiday mode now until Sunday night. There is no video blog unless some severe weather breaks out tomorrow night. The full length text block of the blog is available, please scroll down.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The Thanksgiving week warm spell rolls on, and conditions remain nearly unchanged as we head into Thanksgiving Day 2010. However, a change is gonna come within the next 24-30 hours. It was unseasonably warm once again today with highs up near 80 across the forecast area. It was warm and breezy with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies. Conditions were relatively benign here compared to what is going in parts of the country on one of the busiest travel days of the year. The cold front which are awaiting remains nearly stationary off to our North, but will get the secondary push it needs from an advancing and digging trough later on tonight into first thing Thanksgiving morning. The warmth will continue unabated until then. Generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected for the overnight hours, and fog should not much of an issue due to the continued long fetch Southerly flow that is intensifying over the area ahead of our latest storm system. Morning lows will once again be more representative of what daytime highs should be this time of year. Expect readings generally in the mid to upper 60s to start our Turkey Day. Thanksgiving Day will start out very much like the preceding days have. It will be Partly to Mostly Cloudy in the morning, with very little in the way of rainfall as the atmosphere remains largely capped for a little while longer. Conditions will begin to change after the big meal tomorrow afternoon, and as we all gather by the TV to watch the Saints play the Cowboys in Dallas. It will already be cold up there, and that is what we will have to look forward to.
The cold front will begin to make headway rather swiftly during the afternoon and evening hours on our Thanksgiving. It will enter the state during the afternoon, clearing the ARK-LA-TEX region first, and then pushing into this forecast area Thanksgiving evening. Moisture will pool ahead of the front, and the cap in the upper levels will erode. The front will create forcing and lifting, and an advancing surface low will add instability to the equation. However, the best dynamics will bypass this forecast area. That being said, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area in advance of said frontal boundary. Rain chances will be in the 30-40% range for the afternoon hours as some scattered pre-frontal activity is anticipated, but as the front draws closer during the evening and overnight hours, rain chances will ramp up into the likely category. Mostly general showers and thunderstorms are expected with only marginal instability in place, however, there will be a small window of opportunity for an isolated severe storm or two somewhere in the forecast area. This looks to come along and just ahead of the sharp frontal boundary as a large mass of energy is discharged. This window looks to be generally between about 0Z and 6Z Friday (6p.m.-Midnight CST). The main threats from any severe weather would be damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat will likely be almost non-existent. It seems likely that a solid line of showers and storms will form and congeal off to our NW and roll through the forecast area during the aforementioned time frame. The front will quickly exit into the coastal waters, and a complete reversal of fortune will take shape. Strong WAA will switch to strong CAA as the front flies on by. Temperatures will begin to fall like a rock. Highs will likely top out in the lower 80s Thanksgiving afternoon, but quickly fall eventually reaching the lower 40s by sunrise Friday. Strong Northerly winds will develop as well helping to usher in the cold air. A tight pressure gradient between the evacuating low and the advecting high will result in the strong winds.
Temperatures won't be the only thing falling by Thursday night. The rain will continue to be a fixture as well. We will endure a brief period of overrunning. The cold air will be shallow initially leaving a temporary warm air conduit flowing up above the surface around 850 mb. (5,000 ft.) This will produce a solid canopy of overrunning rains and some elevated convection through the overnight hours into the first part of Black Friday. Most of the rain in the wake of the front will generally be on the light to moderate side, but an occasional bout of heavy rain can't be ruled out with the continued instability in the upper levels. A cooler, stable surface air mass will eliminate any chance for severe weather in the post-frontal environment. The deeper colder air will lag behind just a bit, but will quickly move into the forecast area Friday morning. As the deeper cold air takes over, the period of overrunning rains will receive a cease and desist letter. Boundary layer moisture will continue to decrease, and by the afternoon hours we will begin to notice a decrease in cloud cover across the area as a strong Canadian high pressure builds into the forecast area. CAA will continue all the while. Temperatures will be in stark contrast on Black Friday when compared to Thanksgiving and the rest of the this week. Highs will struggle to reach the 50s with the lingering clouds and rain, and gusty winds. After the long stretch of warm weather, we will be talking about a wind chill Friday morning. Expect these readings to be in the 30s with the strong Northerly winds and colder temperatures near 40. It will feel even colder than that since it's been so warm this week. If you are planning on shopping for Black Friday, you will want to take the rain gear and a coat, but you may also want the sunglasses with the quick turnaround expected.
Throw a log on the fire and/or make a gumbo for Friday evening. The coldest night of the season is in store as CAA begins to cease. Skies be clear as a bell, and winds will decouple setting the stage for nearly the maximum radiative cooling potential. The end result will be a frosty start to the regular weekend days. It is certain that all areas North of I-10 will experience a light freeze with temperatures down into the upper 20s. However, areas which have not already experienced freezing temperatures this season, including here along the I-10 corridor stand a good chance to do so this go around. Models continue to hint at that possibility. I will reflect this in the official forecast as was the case in the previous forecast. It will be a beautiful day Saturday, but it will remain on the cool side as the cold Canadian high pressure will be anchored right overhead. We will fall short of the 60 degree mark, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. If you are heading to Little Rock, AR for the LSU-Arkansas game, bring a coat! It will be quite chilly with highs only in the lower 50s at best with temperatures falling back into the 40s in the second half as the suns sets in the Ouachita Mountains. The clear skies and cold temperatures will continue into Sunday despite the end of CAA on Saturday. The strong high pressure will be pushing off to our East, and in turn winds will reverse course and shift back to off the Gulf on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate as well. Morning lows will be in the 30s once again, but most areas should avoid freezing, however, the coldest locations, may briefly touch it once again early Sunday. A much quicker and more pronounced warm up will ensue with the onshore flow in place Sunday. Expect highs to reach the low to mid 60s. It will a beautiful end to the Thanksgiving weekend, and it looks great for any outdoor plans after church. Humidity will be creeping back into the area in earnest by the evening hours as the Southerly flow intensifies ahead of another storm system.
The return flow offers a quick turnaround going into the new work week and the final days of November. The next potent storm system will be quickly approaching the forecast area as the day progresses Monday. Moisture will continue to increase with an intensifying onshore flow over the forecast area. The digging trough will direct the attendant cold front in our general direction late in the day Monday into Monday Night, and rain chances will return to the forecast at that time. Moisture will be pooling all day out ahead of the cold front, and scattered pre-frontal shower and thunderstorm activity will break out during the afternoon hours Monday. After the chilly weekend, morning temperatures will be significantly warmer reaching above normal levels once again. Lows should only be in the mid 50s or so. Afternoon highs will also be significantly warmer reaching back into the mid 70s across the forecast area. It appears as though conditions are becoming more favorable for a higher possibility of severe weather with this second system. Models indicate better dynamics and a greater amount of forcing over the area ahead of the front. The atmosphere will be highly energized with such a quick turnaround and a rapid disbursement of energy. It is certainly possible that a severe weather threat will materialize ahead of the front Monday evening and Monday night. Certainly, it appears as though a more significant rain event hangs in the balance with the potential for over 2" of rain possible across the forecast area.
The warm up ahead of this system will be much more short lived as the front will quickly push through heading into Tuesday thanks to a fast upper level flow across the Eastern 2/3 of the nation. The strong cold front with origins in Canada will quickly advance into the coastal waters as we head into the day on Tuesday. The pattern will transition back to a CAA regime. The front is currently depicted to move through the area in the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. The window of opportunity for severe weather may come in a short time frame from late Monday night until about 3-4 a.m. Tuesday. The exact timing remains to be seen, as well as the degree of severe potential. Further fine tuning is anticipated as the system draws closer. I won't get too specific about the details just yet. It is prudent to get the Thanksgiving system out of the way first, and then enjoy the rest of the weekend before we hone in on said system. We will know a lot more specifics by the next time you hear from me on Sunday night. As it stands right now, it looks like there will be another period of post-frontal rain on Tuesday as some overrunning succeeds the front. These continued rains will make Tuesday a raw November day with CAA in place. Rain will be likely for the morning hours, and some embedded thunderstorms can't be ruled out with upper level instability in place. A very small diurnal range is expected with the rain and continued CAA. Morning lows will generally be in the low to mid 50s while highs struggle to reach the 60 degree mark. Rain will taper off during the afternoon as drier and colder air finally works into the boundary layer with high pressure becoming re-established at the surface. Skies clear and CAA continues Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It will be a cold start to meteorological winter with lows down into the frosty category once again with readings generally in the low to mid 30s. Some areas will likely end up below freezing, and the forecast reflects this idea. The air mass behind the second front will be very similar to the one moving in for Friday. It will remain cool and dry with lots of sunshine for Wednesday with highs reaching the mid 50s, below the average for early December. The col and dry weather should persist into the first weekend of December.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 68/81 42/52 32/58 0 30 70 40 0 0
LFT 68/82 43/53 32/57 0 30 70 50 0 0
BPT 70/80 41/54 33/58 0 30 70 30 0 0
AEX 65/77 38/50 28/55 0 40 70 30 0 0
POE 65/77 39/50 28/55 0 40 70 30 0 0
ARA 69/81 45/54 34/57 0 30 70 50 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 68. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thanksgiving Day..Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Continued Unseasonably Warm with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 81. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Thanksgiving Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. A few strong to severe storms possible. Turning Much Colder & Windy. Low 42. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty in the evening, becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty overnight. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy, Much Colder, & Windy with a 40% chance of lingering rain in the morning. Rain ending by mid-morning with Decreasing Cloudiness in the afternoon. High 52. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty diminishing to 10-15 mph by late afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear & Cold with a light freeze possible along and North of I-10. Low 32. North wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny & Cool. High 58. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Thanksgiving (Thursday) 11-25-10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Lots of Turkey
Temp: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 18
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Some Scattered Showers & Storms
Temp: 81
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ the Coverage of Showers & Storms Increasing
Temp: 77
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 18
9p.m.
Weather: Showers & T-Storms Likely
Temp: 68
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSW 17
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
11-25-10
Thanksgiving
Low: 68
High: 81
Rain: 30%...70% Night
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-25
Friday
11-26-10
Low: 42
High: 52
Rain: 40% A.M.
Wind: NNW 10-20
W.C.: 30-40
Saturday
11-27-10
Low: 32
High: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 25-30
Sunday
11-28-10
Low: 35
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
W.C.: 35-40
Monday
11-29-10
Low: 56
High: 75
Rain: 40% PM...80% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
11-30-10
Low: 50
High: 55
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 40s
Wednesday
12-1-10
Low: 35
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25-35
...Tropics...
Totally Quiet.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thanksgiving Day...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thanksgiving Night...West
winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas
2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Showers and
thunderstorms likely.
Friday...North winds 20 to 25 knots
becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight
chance of showers in the morning.
Friday Night...North
winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight.
Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Thanksgiving Day Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:39a.m. 11:13p.m.
High: 1:40a.m. 7:22p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.97'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Low: 70
Normal Low: 48
Record Low: 30-1970
High: 80
Normal High: 68
Record High: 87-1896
Rainfall
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 3.22"
Normal Month to Date: 3.67"
Year to Date: 31.47"
Normal Year to Date: 51.65"
Record: 2.41"- 1986
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 49
High: 68
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 53
High: 77
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 54
High: 68
Rain: 1.34"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:13p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:16a.m.-5:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Sunday November 28
New Moon- Sunday December 5
First Quarter- Monday December 13
Full Moon- Tuesday December 21
Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
