March Will End on a Magnificent Note, but Will April Start in Absolutely Awesome Fashion???

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was another perfect day with dominating high pressure in control with pleasant temperatures and low humidity in place. Subtle changes are in store for the next couple of days, before we see more significant changes over the Easter weekend. We are enjoying perhaps the nicest weather in the whole country right now with a pesky, potent storm over New England with lots of flooding up that way, and another Pacific weather system over the Pacific Northwest, and high pressure wedged in between over us. 

Aside from some brief patchy fog, today was perfect. Sunny skies were prevalent with highs close to normal in the low to mid 70s. Winds, as expected, did take on a more Southerly component as the prevailing surface high shifted Eastward, and is now centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico. This will help to slowly increase the low-level moisture across the area. This will also mean an increased threat for late night/early morning fog for the next couple of nights. Clear skies prevail tonight with the low-level onshore flow, and temperatures will be a bit warmer for minimums. The low this morning was in the mid 40s across the forecast area, but tonight lows should be closer to 50. Patchy fog will be possible really anytime after midnight until just after sunrise Wednesday when the sun helps to mix out the fog. The fog will be the only blemish as far as the weather is concerned for Wednesday. It should be another beautiful day, and it will be a quiet end to the month of March. The old saying "March comes in like a lion, and goes up like a lamb" certainly lives up to fruition this year. The slow temperature modification trend will continue with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. This is trending to above normal, but that being said it'll still be a very nice day with pleasant humidity values. A few clouds could dot the landscape during the afternoon with the increasing low-level moisture, but high pressure is also in place in the mid and upper levels, thus suppressing cloud development.

Nice weather continues for Thursday, but again patchy fog will be an issue early on. Temperatures continue to moderate with morning lows rising into the mid 50s. Mostly Sunny skies will be in store with continued high pressure in the mid and upper levels. The surface high will remain anchored over the SE United States at this time. Highs could approach 80, believe it or not. Upper 70s are correctly forecast for Thursday afternoon. At this same time, while we continue to enjoy splendid spring weather, our next storm system will be taking shape. This is not the same storm that is currently over the Pacific Northwest. The storm that will affect us will develop over the Desert SW as an active Southern branch of the Jet Stream carves out a trough. This system will develop, and move steadily Eastward during the second half of the week. Ahead of it, our winds will increase off the Gulf associated with the typical pressure anomalies between highs and lows. I would certainly expect some clouds during the afternoon with a possible transition from Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy at that time, however, the trend should still be for more sun than clouds. The fog will have the potential to be in the dense category on Thursday morning.

Good Friday-Easter Sunday...Not much change in the forecast philosophy from yesterday really. The daylight hours should remain dry with an increase in clouds and temperatures trending above normal at that time. Lows should be in the upper 50s to right around 60 by then, and highs near 80. Normal values for early April are the mid 50s and mid 70s respectively, so you can see we are trending above normal by week's end. The advancing Southern tracker storm system will be moving into West Texas on Good Friday, and bringing rain and storms to that area. It will make good progress and enter Central and North Texas by Friday evening, with the potential for the season's first major severe weather outbreak across the Southern flank of "Tornado Alley". Our winds will be quite gusty at times over 20 mph as the system continues its Eastward advancement. Skies will transition from Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy by the end of the day. Rain chances return for the overnight hours on Friday as the aforementioned storm begins to affect the region. Showers will develop and move from SW to NE across the forecast area as the front approaches SE Texas. A chance for thunderstorms will enter the equation after midnight as better dynamics and instability come into play. The presence of a low-level Jet will be a determining factor in the prospects of severe weather. Jet dynamics will result in Texas cyclogenesis Friday afternoon, and this surface low will move NE into Oklahoma Friday night. Rain chances jump up into the likely category with the potential for maxing out on Saturday. This, as the front moves into SW Louisiana. Models continue to insist on a morning arrival. This greatest threat for severe weather across the forecast area will come between 4a.m. and 10a.m. Saturday. This could actually act as a saving grace, due to the lack of daytime heating. The greatest threat for severe weather will be further North closer to the surface low. However, I certainly can't rule it out for us here in SW Louisiana either. That being said, it is still a bit early to be real specific about what type of severe weather may occur, but this set up certainly favors damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but I will narrow this down as we get closer to said event. Severe weather or not, rain will be likely, and it could be heavy at times with tons of low-level moisture in place just waiting to get wrung out like a sponge. There are still timing and intensity discrepancies involved with this system, and models still diverge on the idea of the front stalling out/washing out near the forecast area or pushing on through, and dissipating further to our East. For now, I will side with the idea that the front will clear the area, and it will do so by the early afternoon hours on Saturday. This will end the threat for any severe weather across the area, but clouds will hang around for a bit longer with some lingering low-level moisture in place due to the close proximity of the weakening front (frontlysis). Rainfall totals could be as much as 2" in places, but average QPF amounts should be around 1". Mild temperatures will continue ahead of the front Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 60s and afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s. Easter Sunday looks fairly nice, no matter what the front does. Drier air should be in place, but not necessarily any cooler air. Partly Cloudy skies will transition to Mostly Sunny skies during the day, and temperatures will be quite seasonable with lows in the low to mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s. The front could still be in our general vicinity, and lift back Northward as a warm front during the day, but this remains to be seen, and I will not side with this idea right now.

Monday-Tuesday & Extended...A dry & mild regime is slated for the end of the forecast period. It won't necessarily be as beautiful as it is right now, because there could be ample low-level moisture in place in response to the weakening or retreating front. Temperatures will trend normal to above normal, and highs could very well exceed 80 for these days. Lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Beyond the forecast period, the warmth of early April looks to continue with the storm track removed to our North, keeping the best dynamics for any severe weather away from our area, and only the weakening tail end of cold fronts to push through. One such front should arrive around mid-week, and bring a chance of rain, but it doesn't seem to be as potent as what we could endure Saturday. Pleasant Spring weather will return at some point in the first half of April, but exactly when remains to be seen, but based on current model runs it could be towards the following weekend (April 9-11). April is one of the driest months of the year across SW Louisiana, and if it follows March then it will fit that bill in 2010. Time will tell!

Listen to the audio blog for more specific weather information!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  48/75  55/78  59/80  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   47/76  54/78  58/80  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   50/77  57/79  62/81  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  44/77  50/80  54/82  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  45/77  51/80  55/81  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  50/76  56/78  61/79  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 48. Light South wind.

Wednesday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Sunny. High 75. South wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 55. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Mostly Sunny. High 78. South wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 59. South wind 10 mph.

Good Friday...Patchy Early Morning Fog, otherwise Partly Cloudy & Windy. High 80. SSE wind 15-20 mph.


Wednesday 3/31/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear, Patchy Fog
Temp: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 3

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 7

Noon

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 12

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 13

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10

9p.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 6


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
3-31-10

Low: 48
High: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10-15


Thursday
4-1-10
Holy Thursday
April Fool's Day

Low: 54
High: 78
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10-15


Friday
4-2-10
Good Friday

Low: 59

High: 80

Precip: 0%

Wind: SSE 15-20


Saturday

4-3-10

 

Low: 63
High: 77
Precip: 70%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20


Sunday
4-4-10
Easter

Low: 54
High: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Monday
4-5-10
Easter Monday
MLB Opening Day

Low: 53
High: 78
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW/WSW 10-15


Tuesday

4-6-10

Low: 58
High: 80
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.

Friday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      11:19a.m.   10:40p.m.
High:       4:38a.m.     2:38p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

   170.84'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Low:              44
Normal Low:  54
Record Low:  34-1913
High:              73
Normal High:  74
Record High:  94-1946

Precipitation

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.60"
Normal Month to Date:  3.43"
Year to Date:                 9.28"
Normal Year to Date:  12.23"
Record:                         3.40"-1935

Sensible Weather Observed Today:

Fog

One Year Ago (2009)

Low: 49
High  74
Rain: 0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low: 59
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low: 60
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday: 7:03a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:  7:31p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Tuesday March 30

Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6

New Moon- Wednesday April 14

First Quarter- Wednesday April 21


This Date in Weather History...March 30: On this date in 1899,  The town of Ruby, CO finally starts diggioug from an amazing 141" of snow from a single storm. Ruby was old mining town in the Elk Mountains near present day Crested Butte.

90 years later in 1989, thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a slow moving cold front caused large hail and damaging winds at over 50 locations across the SE U.S. The storms also spawned a tornado that injured 11 people at Northhampton, NC.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Perfection for Much of the Week...Possible Severe Storms Saturday!...What About Easter???

Monday, March 29, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...You simply couldn't ask for better weather for Spring Break or for anything! We've been on quite a streak of nice weather lately, but the question is will it continue? I will have the answer in just a bit. Let's set it up first! Today was absolutely beautiful with wall to wall sunshine, very low humidity, and pleasant temperatures in the low to mid 70s. It was a bit on the cool side this morning with lows in the mid 40s. The beautiful weather today was as a result of a large area of high pressure that is in control over the Southern U.S. Clear skies and cool temperatures will prevail again tonight with a full moon in place. Low temperatures will be very close to that of last night, generally in the low to mid 40s. Winds will generally be calm with the high pressure anchored over SW Louisiana. There will perhaps be a hint of a south wind by sunrise as the high slowly shifts Eastward, but it appears that it will be largely insignificant with respect to temperatures.

The answer to the question posed above, in short, is yes! Tuesday promises to be another splendid spring day with the dominating high pressure in control, though it will continue sliding Eastward over the Northern Gulf waters through the day. This will bring back an onshore flow, but it will quite subtle at first, such that moisture return will not be noticeable. Humidity values will remain on the low side. Temperatures will be similar to that of Monday with low to mid 70s for maximums once again after a chilly late March morning. Not much needs to be said about the weather through mid-week at least. The beautiful weather will continue, and a moderating temperature trend will continue as well. A more pronounced Southerly flow will become established we get into Wednesday, but the humidity values will still be rather pleasant. A few clouds could dot the landscape during the afternoon with the presence of more low-level moisture, but with high pressure in control in the mid and upper levels cloud development should continue to be suppressed. Moderating temperatures will result from the presence of the onshore flow. Expect morning lows to be closer to normal in the lower 50s while afternoon highs easily top out in the mid 70s, with a few locations reaching the upper end of the 70s. Patchy fog could be present at any location briefly on any morning before the sun works its magic.

We will begin to see some more noticeable changes for the second half of the week. The weather will remain dry for Thursday and Good Friday, but it will certainly be more humid. Winds will strengthen off the Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens across the forecast area. This will be in response to a developing Southern tracker Pacific storm system which will be taking shape over the Desert Southwest and the Rockies at this time. The warming trend will continue with lows approaching the mid 50s while Thursday highs approach the mid to upper 70s. More humidity will be present, and some clouds are expected in the afternoon hours, but all in all it will still be a nice day on Thursday. Good Friday looks to be bordering on the warm category. The developing Pacific storm system will be moving into Texas on Friday with showers and a few thunderstorms out that way, while across SW Louisiana clouds will increase along with temperatures and humidity. The atmosphere will remain capped in the mid and upper levels, but ample low-level moisture will be present. Air mass modification will result in trending temperatures towards above normal levels. Morning lows by Good Friday will be close to 60, and believe it or not highs should be around 80. Break out the shorts, anyone???

The weather remains dry through the day on Good Friday, but rain chances could return for Friday night, and will certainly return for Saturday. There are still some timing and intensity issues in regards to the Pacific storm system. However, you may recall this is the same system that I've been talking about for over a week now. Models continue to be very consistent with a Saturday arrival. Recent model runs have been wanting to speed up this system and its associated cold front. However, there is some question as to whether or not it makes it all the way through the forecast area. At this time, it appears that the front will be close enough to the forecast area during the overnight hours Friday to weaken the cap, and as a result some shower activity will develop across the area. At this same time, more organized shower and thunderstorm activity will be taking shape over Texas. All of this will congeal into a squall line (MCS) along the Eastward moving front Friday night, and work into SW Louisiana Saturday. Based on the current trends, I will mention a morning arrival of said MCS, but retain rain chances into the afternoon hours as it slows down over the forecast area. I will reflect the possibility of the front stalling out over the forecast area for a short time Saturday, but this remains to be seen. Regardless, of timing, the set up with this system favors a significant severe weather outbreak across the forecast area. A surface low will likely develop Friday as Jet Stream energy gets involved as the system ejects Eastward. It is still a bit early to pinpoint with much specificity about what kind of severe weather, and where it will occur. All modes of severe weather certainly can't be ruled out, and further fine tuning is inevitable in the coming days. Keep all of this in mind if you have any outdoor plans Saturday. The mild temperature regime will be retained for this period ahead of the cold front with a low about 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Rain chances will be in the likely category for Saturday, regardless of any severe weather threat. Rainfall amounts could exceed 1", and beginning tomorrow I'll show the usual precipitation forecast map. Improvement is noted by Saturday night.

What about that all important Easter forecast? Right now, Easter Sunday itself is shaping up fairly nice. The Saturday front will have either dissipated or pushed through the area by this time resulting in the improving weather conditions. Some lingering showers can't be ruled out Saturday night into very early Easter Sunday morning as some residual moisture hangs over the area for a brief time before drier air takes over in all levels of the atmosphere. Clearing skies and only slightly cooler temperatures take over on Easter Sunday. This should pose no problems for the Easter Bunny. Umbrellas can stay in the car as you head out to Easter services. Temperatures will fall back just a few degrees with mid 50s for lows and highs remaining near normal in the mid 70s. Mild weather rounds out the forecast period on Monday, the day after Easter. Surface high pressure should build in with seasonable temperatures with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s while highs reach the mid 70s. This is normal for the first week of April. Stay tuned for more on the weekend storm throughout the week!

Listen to the audio blog for more specific weather information!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  43/73  50/75  54/78  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   42/73  49/75  52/79  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   45/74  52/76  56/78  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  40/72  48/75  50/80  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  41/73  49/75  50/80  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  44/73  50/75  55/78  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 43. Calm wind.

Tuesday...Sunny. High 73. South wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 50. SE wind 5 mph.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 75. South wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 54. South wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 78. SSE wind 10-15 mph.


Tuesday 3/30/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear, Cool
Temp: 43
Precip: 0%
Wind: Calm

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 4

Noon

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 65
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 7

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 8

6p.m.


Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 6

9p.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
3-30-10

Low: 43
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 5-10


Wednesday
3-31-10

Low: 50
High: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10-15


Thursday
4-1-10
Holy Thursday
April Fool's Day

Low: 54
High: 78
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Friday
4-2-10
Good Friday

Low: 61
High: 79
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Saturday
4-3-10

Low: 63
High: 77
Precip: 70%
Wind: SSE/SSW 20-25


Sunday
4-4-10
Easter Sunday

Low: 54
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: WSW/NNW 10-15


Monday

4-5-10
MLB Opening Day
Easter Monday

Low: 51
High: 76
Precip: 0%
Wind: W 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 foot.

Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.

Tuesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas building to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet.

Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      10:23a.m.    9:54p.m.
High:       3:29a.m.     2:22p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

   171.03'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Monday, March 29, 2010

Low:              46
Normal Low:  53
Record Low:  35-1913
High:              74
Normal High:  74
Record High:  89-1909

Precipitation

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.60"
Normal Month to Date:  3.32"
Year to Date:                 9.28"
Normal Year to Date:  12.12"
Record:                         3.33"-1949

Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None

One Year Ago (2009)

Low: 42
High  71
Rain: 0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low: 49
High: 73
Rain: 0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low: 50
High: 82
Rain: 0.00"


Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday:  7:30p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Tuesday March 30

Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6

New Moon- Wednesday April 14

First Quarter- Wednesday April 21


This Date in Weather History...March 29: The date of March 29 was a rough one for Louisiana during the course of a 4 year stretch in the late 80s. In 3 out of those 4 years (1987, 1988, and 1990) severe weather outbreaks occurred. I should also note that strong storms occurred in 1989. In 1987, thunderstorms spawned tornadoes in Mississippi, and produced high winds and heavy rain here in Louisiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 92 mph at Houma, and caused a million dollars damage in Terrebonne Parish. Avondale was deluged with 4.52 inches of rain. In the following year in 1988, severe thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured two persons at Bunkie, and produced high winds which down a large tree onto a trailer at Bastrop,claiming the life of one child and injuring another. Finally, in 1990, thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes, including one which injured seven persons at Gray, LA. Thunderstorms also produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Port O'Connor TX, and produced up to six inches of rain in Beauregard Parish.



Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Sensational Spring Break Weather...

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Audio blog only tonight! Full blog updates return tomorrow (Monday).

-DM-

Next Cold Front on Track...Super Spring Weather to Round Out Work Week..

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...This is an abbreviated text version of the forecast. For the complete rundown of the weather for the next week listen to the audio blog.

Due to time constraints, here are some bulleted points about what lies ahead in the world of weather.

-Intermittent light rain and/or drizzle overnight ahead of our next cold front.

-Next cold front currently sliding through Central Texas, and will push ESE through the night. An MCS has developed ahead the front, and will move through the forecast area in the time frame between 6a.m. and noon Thursday.

-No severe weather is anticipated with lacking dynamics and instability, but certainly some thunderstorms are expected Thursday morning ahead of the boundary. The prospects of severe weather are low, but will be monitored in more instability is present than models currently project. One or two severe cells couldn't be ruled out, but that appears to be a more likely occurrence further N and E of the forecast area. Rain chances in the likely category tonight and Thursday morning before coming to an end around lunch time.

-Fast moving system, rainfall totals around 1-2-1" expected.

-Front clears the forecast area in its entirety by noon Thursday, and conditions improve rapidly with modest CAA and drier air taking over in its wake Thursday afternoon. Some sunshine is expected before day's end. So, pack the umbrella for your morning drive, and the sunglasses for the afternoon drive.

-Above normal temperatures tonight and Thursday. Lows near 60 while Thursday highs should be in the mid 70s. Cooling off Thursday night with clear skies and modest CAA...mid 40s.

-Beautiful weather on tap Friday and Saturday as Pacific high pressure dominates. Sunny skies and very pleasant temperatures in store for the end of the work week and first half of the weekend. Cool, refreshing mornings, and pleasant afternoons. Lows 45-50 each day and highs 67-72 Friday, and 70-75 Saturday.

-Progressive late March pattern in place with another cold front scheduled for early on Palm Sunday. Moisture limited, but a return flow will be noted by Saturday evening. Expect increasing clouds with the possibility of a few sprinkles or a light shower in the wee morning hours of Sunday, but no big deal. Milder weather in store for Saturday night/Sunday morning with the return flow. Lows back into the mid 50s. Clouds decrease during the day Sunday with clear skies returning in the afternoon, and much drier air in place. Little or no temperature change for Sunday maximums compared to Saturday...low to mid 70s.

-High pressure dominates the rest of the forecast next week for Spring Break. Beautiful weather Monday-Wednesday. No mention of rain, and likely cloud free weather all 3 days. Perfection for Spring Break! Seasonable temperatures expected with lows in the mid 40s to around 50 and highs in the low to mid 70s. Slow moderation of temperatures is noted.

Can you believe we'll slide into April next week? That's just beyond the forecast period right now, but briefly looking at the extended shows dry weather for the latter half of Spring Break week, however, temperatures may trend to above normal with a pronounced Southerly flow established by that time. High temperatures could approach 80 by Good Friday with morning lows climbing back into the 50s. Models insistent on a big storm Easter weekend, but I won't be too specific about that at this time, since it's still in that proverbial "gray area" so to speak. I will hone in on that with more specificity next week.


Zone Forecast & 7 Day Outlook to follow...all other text products will be produced tonight! Normal format should return tomorrow!


Tonight...Cloudy with off and on light rain and/or drizzle through the night transitioning to showers & thunderstorms by morning. Low 61. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Thursday...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely in the morning. Ending with Decreasing Cloudiness in the afternoon. High 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW 15-20 mph and gusty by noon. Chance of rain 70% in the morning.

Thursday Night...Clear and Cooler. Low 45. NNW wind 10 mph.

Friday...Sunny. High 68. North wind 5-10 mph.

Friday Night...Clear. Low 48. NE wind 5 mph.

Saturday...Sunny. High 73. SE wind 5-10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday

3-25-10

Low: 61
High: 75
Precip: 70% AM 

Wind: SSE/NNW 10-20


Friday

3-26-10

Low: 45
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 5-10


Saturday
3-27-10

Low: 48
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Sunday

3-28-10
Palm Sunday

Low: 54
High: 74
Precip: 20% AM
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20


Monday
3-29-10

Low: 48
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Tuesday
3-30-10

Low: 46
High: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Wednesday
3-31-10

Low: 48
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Next System on Track for Thursday...Wonderful Weekend Ahead???

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...How bout that weather today? Aside from the patchy early morning fog and the high clouds streaming across the area from time to time today it was absolutely beautiful! It was a chilly start as advertised with lows ranging from the low to mid 40s, however, with the dry air in place we enjoyed a fast warm up after the fog dissipated and the sun came up. Highs topped out near 70 today. I think 70 is just about the perfect temperature. Some changes are on the horizon in the short term as our next storm system hangs in the balance.

Tonight...It will remain dry, but patchy fog will be an issue again. Although, it shouldn't be widespread or dense for that matter because the established onshore flow will remain prominent overnight keeping the atmosphere mixed up just enough to prevent a serious fog problem. It may become a situation of fog vs. low clouds depending how much atmospheric mixing occurs. Certainly, the high clouds will continue to stream across the area as an active Subtropical Jet Stream continues to move across the area ahead of the advancing storm system. The southerly flow will also result in warmer minimum temperatures, thus you can expect morning lows around 50. This is seasonable for late March. The low clouds and patchy fog will be the only influential weather as we head into Wednesday.

Wednesday-Thursday...The fog and low clouds will dissipate by mid-morning and a mild temperature regime is expected. The next storm system to affect the area is currently over West Texas, and it will progress Eastward quickly on Wednesday. It's cold front will be bearing down on us by Wednesday night. Wednesday should be a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. It will be a normal day temperaturewise with maximums in the lower 70s. The prominent Southerly flow will continue with onshore breezes about 10-15 mph at times. Rain chances will return overnight Wednesday as the cold front slides into East Texas. By this time, it will be close enough to the area to begin to produce some scattered showers across the area. The best instability and dynamics with this system will bypass the forecast area, so just general shower and thunderstorm activity is expected. Mainly scattered activity is expected overnight Wednesday, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Thursday as the front moves in and out of SW Louisiana very quickly. The time frame I suggested yesterday, looks to be too late! This is now shaping up to be a morning event. The main window of opportunity of rain now seems to be 6a.m. to noon Thursday. Rainfall totals for this event should generally be a 1/2" or less. No severe weather is expected, but the majority of us will see at least some shower or thunderstorm activity Thursday morning. Conditions quickly improve Thursday afternoon as the front exits stage right, and drier but not much cooler air moves in with a new area of high pressure slated to build in. Temperatures for Thursday will continue to be mild. Morning lows will be close to 60, while afternoon highs reach the mid 70s. Rain chances drop out of the forecast entirely by Thursday night. There's not much cool air poised to spill into the region behind this front, so only a minor cool down is expected heading into Friday.

Friday-Saturday...Beautiful weather is expected as high pressure settles in! Enjoy it! It's the start of Spring Break this weekend, so that'll be nice! Sunny skies are expected both days with very pleasant temperatures. It'll be seasonably cool each morning with lows in the mid 40s to around 50 while afternoon highs will just be on either side of the 70 degree mark. Upper 60s to near 70 seems logical for Friday with weak CAA in place, while lower 70s are in the offing for Saturday as the high will be right overhead for much of the day, before sliding Eastward in the afternoon.

Sunday...It's Palm Sunday! Another storm system will be gathering steam out West over the weekend, and will quickly be heading our direction by this time. Models continue to speed it up, and it looks like this trough and its associated cold front will push through the area rather quickly early Sunday. It could make its passage while we're sleeping Saturday night, so you may not even notice it. Moisture return will be limited, so not much of a chance of rain is expected. I will mention just a slight 20% at this time for the Saturday Night/Sunday Morning time frame as there could be just enough forcing to generate some showers. Better dynamics will be too our North. Cloudiness will certainly be present ahead of this boundary. The front quickly moves into Dixie, and our nice weather resumes! Drier and somewhat cooler air will filter in Sunday behind the front, with skies transitioning from Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Low temperatures jump back into the mid 50s while afternoon highs remain near normal in the low to mid 70s. It's still possible I will remove Sunday's rain chance entirely...stay tuned!

Monday-Tuesday & Extended...Great weather for Spring Break! High pressure becomes re-established across the Gulf Coast. Expect full sunshine both days with very pleasant temperatures once again, as our nice stretch of Spring weather continues. Lows will be in the comfortable 45-50 range, and highs should be in the 68-73 range each day. Looking into the extended, nice  weather looks to hang around for much of next week with a continued warming trend each day. Could we flirt with 80 degrees before Easter? It's possible, but still shear speculation at this point. It looks like there could be a rather bodacious storm system around 3 April, but again pinning down specifics at this time is near impossible.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  51/73  59/75  48/68  0 0 30 60 0 0
LFT   50/73  58/75  47/68  0 0 30 60 0 0
BPT   53/73  61/73  49/69  0 0 40 60 0 0
AEX  47/74  57/72  45/66  0 0 30 70 0 0
POE  47/74  57/72  46/67  0 0 30 70 0 0
ARA  52/73  60/75  50/70  0 0 30 60 0 0


Tonight...Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 51. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday...Patchy Fog and/or Low Clouds dissipating by mid-morning otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 59. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy with morning showers & thunderstorms likely. Becoming Partly Cloudy in the afternoon. High 75. SSW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday Night...Clear and Cooler. Low 48. NNW wind 10 mph.

Friday...Sunny. High 68. North wind 10 mph.


Wednesday 3/24/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Patchy Fog
Temp: 51
Precip:  0%
Wind: SE 6

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp:  56
Precip:  0%
Wind: SSE 8

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 12

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 13

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 10

9p.m.

Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 64
Precip: 20%
Wind: SSE 8


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
3-24-10

Low: 51

High: 73

Precip: 0%

Wind: SSE 10-15

Thursday
3-25-10

Low: 59
High: 75
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSW 10-15


Friday
3-26-10

Low: 48
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
 

Saturday
3-27-10

Low: 46

High: 72

Precip: 0%

Wind: NE/SE 10

Sunday

3-28-10
Palm Sunday

Low: 55
High: 71
Precip: 20%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15


Monday
3-29-10

Low: 48
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Tuesday
3-30-10

Low: 47
High: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind:  N 5-10


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.



...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tide Data @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:     4:06a.m.
High:    12:38p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    171.52'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Low:               43
Normal Low:  52
Record Low:  25-1915
High:              70
Normal High:  73
Record High:  89-1910

Precipitation

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.06"
Normal Month to Date:  2.66"
Year to Date:                 8.74"
Normal Year to Date:  11.46"
Record:                         3.43"-1973

Sensible Weather Observed Today:

Fog


One Year Ago (2009)

Low: 62
High  79
Rain: 0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low: 52
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low: 58
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday: 7:12a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:  7:27p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Tonight March 23

Full Moon- Tuesday March 30

Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6

New Moon- Wednesday April 14


This Date in Weather History...March 23: On this date in 1987, A blizzard raged across Western Kansas, and the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. Pampa, Texas received 21" of snow, and winds gusted to 78 mph (over hurricane force) at Dodge City, Kansas and Altus, Oklahoma. Governor Hayden of Kansas declared 46 counties in the Western half of Kansas a disaster area. In Southwest Kansas, the storm was described as the worst in 30 years. 




Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Cold Snap Over...Springlike Temperatures For the Rest of the Week...

Monday, March 22, 2010

This is not a political blog, and I vowed from the beginning to never stray far from the sole purpose of this blog..."weather". Most everyone knows my political views, so I will not disclose that information here if you don't know. However, based on the events of the past 24 hours I felt compelled to include a quote from our great 3rd President...

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have."

~ Thomas Jefferson


That's it, if you more than that about politics you're in the wrong place here, now onto the forecast discussion...


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a difference a day makes! It felt a lot more like Spring today with full sunshine and surface high pressure in place. It was a chilly start this morning with lows around 40. The high pressure in control resulted in a very dry air mass, and in turn that resulted in a quick warm up with a very large diurnal range. Temperatures warmed up into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This was some 20-25 degrees warmer than the highs on Sunday. Sunday was definitely a cold day by March standards, but did you know the actual high Sunday was cooler than the average high in January. Sunday was cloudy, cold, & windy in the wake of the strong cold front which pushed through Saturday. A low stratus deck hung around throughout the day Sunday in response to wrap around backlash cloudiness via the upper level low on the backside of the front. Thankfully, it was just a cold snap and it's just a memory now. High pressure is in complete control tonight and clear skies and dry air remain in tact as well. This will certainly set the stage for another cool night, but not quite as cold as the previous 2 nights. Expect lows to drop into the low to mid 40s, still several degrees below normal, but this will be the last night of that for a little while. Great weather continues for Tuesday with full sunshine and high temperatures near normal in the lower 70s. The controlling high pressure will slide Eastward during the day, thus commencing a low level return flow by the afternoon, but this will be inconsequential until later periods. Some high clouds could filter through the upper levels from time to time on Tuesday, but all in all it'll be a terrific Tuesday.

Tuesday Night-Wednesday...Dry weather will persist through Wednesday, but changes are inevitable at this time. Our next weather maker will be getting its act together over the Rockies and Great Plains during this time. As the high pressure overhead now continues its Eastward progression, a strengthening low-level onshore flow will occur bringing back the humidity in earnest. Clouds will also begin to return during the overnight hours heading into Wednesday morning. While dry weather is expected, some patchy fog can't be ruled out by sunrise Wednesday with the more pronounced low-level onshore flow and the temperature differential between the land and water. This will be a more likely proposition near the coast. I don't expect it to be a huge problem, because winds should stay up just enough to produce continued mixing in the atmosphere that precludes the development of widespread fog. This weather maker, our next cold front, will be approaching on Wednesday as a trough is carved out in the Great Plains to help push the system along. Wednesday stays dry, but there will certainly be some clouds. It'll likely end up being a mix of clouds and sun for Wednesday. Temperatures will be much milder for minimums Wednesday, and much closer to normal. Expect to start the day out with readings in the mid 40s up North and lower 50s down South. The warming trend continues in earnest Wednesday with maximums reaching the low to mid 70s. This is just about normal for late March. The next system encroaches by Wednesday night, but for the time being this period is kept dry as the main lifting mechanism will still far enough to our West to keep the atmosphere capped preventing any rainfall just yet. The mild weather continues with lows reaching into above normal territory.

Thursday...Our next chance of rain. Not much change really as far as the timing of this system is noted. Now, that we're about 2.5-3 days away from this event, it's time to get more specific wrt to severe weather as that is always of interest this time of year. The dynamics just aren't there, so no severe weather is expected. That's very good news because we are in prime time spring storm season around these parts. That being said, while there is still some model disagreement on how much rain will occur on Thursday, it seems inevitable that most of us will see some rain. It could be very similar to this past Saturday. I don't expect more than 1/2" of rain at this time as this should be another fast mover. I know you always like to have a time frame when it comes to rain, so here you go! Based on the latest model data, it looks like an afternoon event. I will narrow the time frame down as we get closer to the event, but for now a time frame of noon-6p.m. seems feasible. I do believe there could be just enough instability and lift for a few thunderstorms, but certainly no severe weather is expected. Showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the front over East Texas early on Thursday, and progress Eastward through the day. The spring warmth will continue with morning lows in the upper 50s, and afternoon highs in the mid 70s. Some model output indicates upper 70s as there could be enough sunshine to warm up temperatures even further than indicated. The front should quickly move on through based on the current data, and improving conditions take over Thursday night, but cloudiness will linger as it will take drier air a bit longer to take over in the mid and upper levels.

Friday & the Weekend...Unlike the last front, there's not a whole lot of cold air behind the advancing trough, so very little change in temperature is expected. Clouds may linger into the early daylight hours on Friday, but high pressure will become established during the day, so clearing should occur quickly and it'll be a nice end to the work week. Somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the morning with a low around 50, while the afternoon high will be around 70. This is essentially normal. Saturday looks beautiful with the pleasant temperatures continuing. Temps could start out in the upper 40s, but nothing overly cold. Low to possibly mid 70s are expected for highs. It looks great for anything outdoors! Some minor changes are expected for Sunday. Another front will be approaching, and likely move through at some point on Sunday. Timing is still  bit uncertain, but regardless of timing, moisture looks limited. There is decent consistency that all dynamics will be far removed from the forecast area, so that mainly just clouds will affect the region ahead of the front. However, a very small chance of rain can't be ruled out, and I will reflect this for the time being. (<20%). Nothing of consequence is expected. The temperatures will remain similar to that of Saturday. Low to mid 50s are expected for lows, and highs should be in the lower 70s. It will be a bit cooler in the afternoon depending on the timing of the front. A return flow will likely set up by Saturday evening, but it will quickly return to an offshore flow Sunday afternoon. All in all, it doesn't look like a bad Palm Sunday weekend at all.

Monday & the Extended...The end of the forecast period looks quiet. High pressure will become re-established in the wake of the Sunday front. This front could be a bit stronger temperaturewise. Sunny skies are expected with lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs in the mid 60s. This is a bit below normal once again, but maybe this is the usual "Easter Cool Snap" as weather folklore suggests, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way, it doesn't look as cold as this last front, but it may be a bit cool for some of you Spring Breakers. Spring Break comes the week before Easter this year. Beyond the forecast period, the good news most of Spring Break Week 2010 is looking mighty fine. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature for the majority of the week. A warming trend will be in store as well, and dare I say that we could see some low 80s by the latter half of that week. The very early prognostication for Easter is sunny and pleasant with seasonable temperatures.

Listen to the audio blog for specifics!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  45/71  50/72  57/74  0 0 0 0 0 60
LFT   44/70  49/73  56/75  0 0 0 0 0 60
BPT   46/72  51/73  58/75  0 0 0 0 0 70
AEX  41/73  45/75  53/71  0 0 0 0 0 60
POE  41/73  45/75  54/71  0 0 0 0 0 60
ARA  44/71  51/72  58/74  0 0 0 0 0 60


Tonight...Clear & Cool. Low 45. Light SW wind.

Tuesday..Sunny. High 71. South wind 10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy with some Patchy Fog. Low 50. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 72. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 57. SSE wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy with showers & a few thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty late. Chance of rain is 60%.


Tuesday 3/23/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 45
Precip:  0%
Wind: SW 3

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp:  54
Precip:  0%
Wind: S 5

Noon

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 8

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 7

9p.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 5


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
3-23-10

Low: 45

High: 71

Precip: 0%

Wind: South 10

Wednesday
3-24-10

Low: 50
High: 72
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Thursday
3-25-10

Low: 57
High: 74
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20


Friday
3-26-10

Low: 50
High: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10


Saturday
3-27-10

Low: 46
High: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10


Sunday
3-28-10
Palm Sunday

Low: 50
High: 72
Precip: 10%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15


Monday
3-29-10

Low: 45
High: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind:  NNW 10-15


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Tuesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.

Tuesday Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tide Data @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:     2:49a.m.
High:     3:20p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    171.66'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Monday, March 22, 2010

Low:               40
Normal Low:  52
Record Low:  27-1915
High:              71
Normal High:  73
Record High:  90-1910

Precipitation

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.06"
Normal Month to Date:  2.54"
Year to Date:                 8.74"
Normal Year to Date:  11.34"
Record:                         1.50"-1901

Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None


One Year Ago (2009)

Low: 54
High  78
Rain: 0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low: 61
High: 81
Rain: 0.24"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low: 60
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday: 7:13a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:  7:26p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Tuesday March 23

Full Moon- Tuesday March 30

Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6

New Moon- Wednesday April 14


This Date in Weather History...March 22: In the contiguous 48 states it isn't very often that we get to see the magnificent Northern Lights. However, on this date in 1920 much of the lower 48 saw quite a show! The Northern Lights were visible as far South as Bradenton, Florida, El Paso, Texas, and Fresno, California. In Detroit, Michigan the display was described as "so brilliant as to blot out all start below first magnitude."



Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Update on Strong Cold Front...

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Today is the first day of Spring, and for the time being it feels like it. However, don't let that fool you, or the relatively nice start to the weekend lull you into a sense of complacency...

The much advertised line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the strong Pacific front is progressing Eastward at about 25 mph this afternoon. It is nearing Beaumont as of 1:15p.m. It will approach Lake Charles between 2-3p.m. and Lafayette between 4 and 5p.m. This is a bit ahead of schedule from what I've been suggesting the last couple of days. Nevertheless, the chance for severe weather is virtually non-existent, and that's very good news. The main mitigating factor is surface instability and less than sufficient surface dew points. The rain will last for several hours this afternoon and evening. A little lightning and thunder is expected and brief gusty winds, but no severe weather is anticipated. Upwards of an inch of rain is expected with this system, but it will be a quick mover so this will negate a heavy rainfall or flooding threat.

The big story will come behind this system with much colder air taking over. Temperatures will begin falling this afternoon into the 50s with the onset of the rain, and the free fall continues tonight with temperatures falling
into the mid to upper 30s by sunrise Sunday....brrr! Adding insult to injury will be strong NNW winds on the order of 20-25 mph. That will create wind chills in the 20-25 degree range. You'll definitely want to bundle up as you head out to church services Sunday. While the rain ends, the clouds will hang tough well into Sunday. This is in response to potent upper level low on the backside of this advancing front. This ULL will track along the I-20 corridor diving SE from Oklahoma tonight. The close proximity of this feature will be responsible for keeping the clouds in place. No precipitation is expected across the area on Sunday, however, if you want to see snow (that's right snow!!!) drive north to North Louisiana or somewhere in the ARK-LA-TEX region. Heavy snow is expected up that way underneath this ULL (they'll be just N and W of the circulation Sunday). The cold air aloft generated by this system creates instability in the atmosphere and produces dynamic cooling which translates down to the surface. Thus, rain will change to snow overnight tonight, and continue through Sunday. No such weather here, but it is interesting to note this anyway. It will be a cold, cloudy, and blustery day Sunday with temperatures only topping out in the mid to upper 40s. Some clearing will be noted late as the ULL pulls away, but it will take until Sunday night to clear out completely.

We will deal with a Spring frost Sunday night/Monday morning as skies clear and winds decouple (slack off). Strong Canadian high pressure will settle into the area, and as skies clear late Sunday this set the stage for prime radiative cooling processes sending temperatures down into the low to mid 30s for most areas by sunrise Monday. Frost is likely proposition by this time, with the coldest locations even experiencing a late season light freeze. The immediate coast should avoid the frosty conditions with temperatures closer to 40, but I expect a decent frost even here in Lake Charles. Air mass modification begins under full sunshine Monday afternoon with highs rebounding to the upper 50s. From there, the temperature modification continues with near normal conditions by Tuesday afternoon after another chilly morning Tuesday with lows near 40. Another system hangs in the balance for Thursday, with a return flow established ahead of it on Wednesday. This next system will have the potential to be more favorable for severe weather as it drags its cold front through the area on Thursday, but that remains to be seen. I will begin to hone in on that Monday. This should hopefully set the stage for a beautiful end of the work week Friday, and pretty Palm Sunday weekend! Stay tuned!

Listen to the audio blog for complete details! More information will be posted later as I deem necessary depending on the evolution of the cold air and advancing ULL tonight.

Have a good weekend and God bless!
-DM-

Update on Severe Weather Potential for Saturday...

Friday, March 19, 2010

I hope you are enjoying this absolutely beautiful Friday afternoon.

I will have the complete forecast package (text & audio) posted later tonight, but I wanted to take advantage of my latest technology here on the blog and give you an audio update on the severe weather potential for Saturday afternoon and evening...

There's not much change wrt timing of the potential severe weather. It still looks like the main window for said severe weather, if it were to occur, would be between 5p.m. (22Z Sat. ) and 10p.m.(3Z Sun.) Saturday. It will be a quick shot of storms, and then it's done. Everything blows out of here by early Sunday, with much colder weather taking over for the latter half of the weekend.

The audio blog gives more specifics! Check back later tonight for the next complete update, probably after 10p.m. CDT.


Enjoy the rest of the day & thanks for listening!
-DM-

Fantastic Friday but Big Changes for the Weekend...

Thursday, March 18, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a very nice Thursday across the forecast area as much drier air was in place. High pressure built into the area in the wake of the dual upper level lows which moved through on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ample sunshine was experienced, although there were some scattered clouds during the afternoon due to the close proximity of the wrap around backlash cloudiness from the outgoing upper level lows. It was very pleasant temperaturewise with highs reaching the low end of the 70s after morning lows in the mid to upper 40s. This is very seasonable for mid-March. Quiet weather is on tap tonight with high pressure in control. Clear skies and light winds prevail establishing ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight. Expect minimums to bottom out in the lower 40s. This is several degrees below normal for mid-March.

Friday & Friday Night...Enjoy the day! A fantastic Friday is in store with the high pressure in control, though it will slide Eastward during the day. This will result in the return of low-level moisture. This will be of inconsequential measures until very late in the day. The air mass in place should remain dry enough to preclude any development of clouds. Sunny skies are expected. After the cool start temperatures will warm up nicely to near the average of 70. The return flow becomes more pronounced Friday night, and this will certainly impact the forecast during this time. The return flow strengthens in response our next storm system gaining strength as it comes out of the Rockies. The established return flow will increase moisture in the low levels, and as a result clouds will begin to return to the region and a much milder temperature scheme will be noted. Expect overnight lows to be much closer to normal in the lower 50s. No rain chance is in the forecast just yet.

Saturday-Sunday...Saturday starts dry, but how does it finish? The much advertised strong cold front will be moving through our general vicinity during the evening hours, and this is the most likely time to see some adverse weather. Some scattered showers are expected to develop in the early afternoon hours as a sufficient amount of low level moisture will be in place by this time. This deeper moisture combined with daytime heating will likely produce some quick moving "streamer" showers. As the upper trough deepens, the strong trough pushes into our area Saturday evening, and showers and thunderstorms will jump into the likely category during that time frame. The prospects of severe weather need to be discussed in further detail at this point. I am still skeptical as to whether or not we will have anything in the way of severe weather. Models indicate some pretty good dynamics across the area, however, surface instability will be the biggest question mark. The greatest amount of surface instability will likely be just N of the forecast area, so I believe that is where the greatest chance of severe weather will reside. It is certainly feasible to mention the possibility of one or two isolated cells across our area especially with Jet Stream interaction and the position of a surface low that will form and move Eastward through the ARK-LA-TEX. The entire forecast area is highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather for day 3 (Saturday). The main threat across our area will be from damaging straight line winds in association with the MCS that is expected to develop along the front over Central Texas and move to the East through the evening. Isolated tornadoes will be possible, but mainly for the northern half of the forecast area. Large hail is in the equation as well to a lesser degree. The most likely time frame for significant weather across the forecast area will be between 4p.m. and 10p.m. Around 4p.m. for SE Texas, and into the Lake Charles area between 6 and 7p.m. and the Lafayette area between 8 and 9p.m. The squall line should clear the entire forecast area by midnight. The fast moving squall line will help to prevent a prolonged heavy rainfall event, but certainly some heavy rain will be likely with the thunderstorms along the front. Rainfall totals should be around an inch or less. A mild day is in store temperaturewise with highs reaching the lower 70s. A very quick turnaround is expected in the wake of the front Saturday night with strong CAA taking over. Rain will end by midnight, and there could be a brief period of post-frontal rains, but drier air will be moving in rather quickly. The rain ends quickly, but the clouds could hang around a bit longer. The ghost of winter will arrive as we head into Sunday morning with lows down into the mid to upper 30s. Saturday is the first day of spring (vernal equinox), and it will feel like it, but a certain shock to the system is in the offing behind this front. The much colder air takes over for the second half of the weekend. The clouds will hang tough into a portion of Sunday as the associated upper level low produces a wrap-around stratus deck across the area. This should pull away from the area during the day, and some sunshine is expected for the afternoon hours. It will be on the cool side with highs only reaching the mid 50s...some 15 degrees or so below normal. It'll feel colder than that with a strong NW wind up to 20 mph at times. High pressure builds in to produce clear and cold conditions for the end of the weekend.

Monday-Tuesday...A spring frost is likely area wide Monday morning. The winds will be much lighter Sunday night and skies will be crystal clear, thus setting the stage for excellent radiational cooling processes and the formation of frost towards morning. Temperatures will be well below normal to start the day Monday in the low to mid 30s, but certainly not into record territory. Full sunshine is expected with high pressure right over head, CAA will cease during the day. A modest warm up is expected with highs remaining well below normal. It may stay just shy of 60 degrees on average, but some locations will briefly crack the 60 degree mark. Air mass modification begins Monday night as the high orients itself to our East. Low temperatures under clear skies and a very light onshore flow will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Benign weather continues for Tuesday with a more significant warm up expected. Normal highs are in the lower 70s for this time of year, and the maximum will approach that value, likely missing it by just a few degrees.

Wednesday-Thursday...Low-level moisture increases on Wednesday with a strengthening onshore flow as another storm system develops in the lee of the Rockies. It appears now as though at least the daylight hours of Wednesday will be dry, but clouds will certainly be on the increase. Fog could be an issue for Wednesday morning with the established return flow. Significant temperature modification will ensue by this time with morning lows back into the low to mid 50s, and highs in the lower 70s. The next front will likely move through the area on Thursday, but should be close enough by Wednesday night to generate a few showers in advance. Rain chances are certainly in the forecast for the end of the period, but there is still a lot of uncertainty with the strength and timing of this next front. I believe with ample low-level moisture in place, and models progging a rather potent system rain chances in the likely category seem feasible. Severe weather could also factor into the equation on Thursday, but this solution is put on the backburner for now. Let's keep our focus on the Saturday system! Mild temperatures are expected as we round out the forecast period with morning lows in the mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s, actually trending above normal! Usual model uncertainty is present just beyond this forecast period as we approach Palm Sunday weekend. There is some speculation that the front could stall and not push through until next Friday, and this scenario would keep high rain chances in the forecast through then while temperatures remain mild. If weather folklore holds true, then there will most likely be one more cold snap as we approach Easter, but that's certainly way on down the road.

 Listen to the audio blog for more specifics!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  44/69  52/72  38/54  0 0 0 40 70 20
LFT   44/70  51/72  39/55  0 0 0 30 70 20
BPT   45/71  53/72  37/55  0 0 0 40 70 20
AEX  40/70  48/71  35/53  0 0 0 30 70 20
POE  41/70  48/70  36/53  0 0 0 30 70 20
ARA  44/68  53/71  40/56  0 0 0 20 70 20

Tonight...Clear. Low 44. Light & Variable wind.

Friday...Sunny. High 69. SE wind 5-10 mph. 

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy and Warmer. Low 52. SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Mostly Cloudy in the morning. Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. Windy. High 72. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Saturday Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely in the evening. Some heavy rainfall & isolated severe thunderstorms possible. Turning Windy & sharply colder. Low 38. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall totals up to 1".

Sunday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain early, becoming Mostly Sunny. Windy & Much Cooler. High 54. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, diminishing late.


Friday 3/19/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 44
Precip:  0%
Wind: SW 3

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp:  51
Precip:  0%
Wind: S 5

Noon

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 8

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 69
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 9

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 64
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 8

9p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 59
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 5


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
3-19-10

Low: 43
High: 69
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 5-10


Saturday
3-20-10
First Day of Spring

Low: 52
High: 72
Precip: 30% PM...70% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20


Sunday
3-21-10

Low: 38
High: 54
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20


Monday
3-22-10

Low: 35
High: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10


Tuesday
3-23-10

Low: 40
High: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10


Wednesday
3-24-10

Low: 51
High: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Thursday
3-25-10

Low: 56
High: 74
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.

Sunday...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet..


...Tide Data...

Friday Tide Data @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:    11:41a.m.    11:51p.m.
High:      6:21a.m.      2:53p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    171.92'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Low:               47
Normal Low:  51
Record Low:  29-1893
High:              72
Normal High: 72
Record High: 85-1908

Precipitation

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.06"
Normal Month to Date:  2.06"
Year to Date:                 8.74"
Normal Year to Date:  10.86"
Record:                         1.50"-1888

Sensible Weather Observed Today:

Fog


One Year Ago (2009)

Low: 48
High  77
Rain: 0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low: 40
High: 65
Rain: 0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low: 57
High: 80
Rain: 0.29"


Sunrise Wednesday: 7:18a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:  7:24p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Tuesday March 23

Full Moon- Tuesday March 30

Last Quarter- Tuesday April 6

New Moon- Wednesday April 14


This Date in Weather History...March 18: On this date in 1925, The Great "Tri-State Tornado" (Missouri, Illinois, & Indiana) occurred, the deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro, IL and 148 at West Frankfort, IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort, IL, and picked up sixteen students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes claimed an additional 97 lives that day.




March 18, 1952: The world record for rainfall was established over a 5 day period in Mid-March at Cilaos, Reunion Island. An amazing total of 151.73" of rain fell over that 5 day period. That's an average of 30.35" of rain per day.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-