Look who's back in the saddle again! My apologies for the lack of blogs last week. I was under the weather, and was taking some time to get well & rest up. I am back now, so without further adieu let's roll! The blog is operating at full capacity.
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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Arguably, the finest stretch of weather so far this year is in store for the next few days. Our latest cold front passed through the area this morning bringing little in the way of eventful weather. Some brief and spotty showers occurred along and ahead of the front, but it was barely enough rain to wet the ground where it did rain. We continue to lag behind on rainfall for the year, and the ongoing drought continues. This front, unlike its predecessors, passed through and kept going. This front didn't stall just offshore, meaning the nice air mass that it ushered in will hang around for more than just a day. The front pushed into the coastal waters this morning, and a fresh Northerly breeze is ushering in a very pleasant Pacific air mass just in time for the month of March, which is often one of our most beautiful months. The air was not noticeable cooler at first in the wake of the front, but the air dried out almost instantaneously. Highs reached the lower 80s as dew points fell from near 70 ahead of the front, into the 40s and 50s this evening. CAA is in place tonight as Pacific high pressure builds in behind the exiting front. A fresh Northerly breeze and clear skies over the area tonight will allow for temperatures to cool off nicely. The morning lows in the mid 40s will not only resemble the seasonal values, but also be the coolest readings we've seen in at least a couple weeks. It will feel refreshing as you head out to start the day on Tuesday, but you might want a jacket or sweater if you get cool easy.
Perfect is about how to describe the anticipated weather for the Tuesday-Thursday period with only slight day to day variations in temperatures expected. Pacific high pressure will control the weather across the forecast area through Thursday providing with some marvelous March weather. March 2011 will come in like a lamb, opposite of what old weather folklore says. Temperatures will be seasonal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Look for a large diurnal range each day with the dry air and low humidity in place. Plenty of sunshine is expected, and afternoon highs Tuesday will reach the lower 70s. Tuesday night will be the coolest night of the week with temperatures dropping into the lower 40s, some upper 30s will be possible in the coldest locations by sunrise Wednesday. Winds will be nearly calm for this period as the Pacific high pressure positions itself over East Texas. Air mass modification will begin by Thursday as the controlling high slowly shifts Eastward bringing back a subtle return flow on Thursday. It will still be quite pleasant Thursday as the deeper low level moisture will be well offshore, and take a while to return. Humidity values will increase in response to the Southerly flow. Morning lows will be a few degrees warmer with readings generally in the mid to upper 40s while afternoon highs drop back a few degrees because of the return flow. High temperatures will once again climb into the low to mid 70s. Some clouds may show up on the horizon by the end of the day, but overall it will be another beautiful day.
Abundant changes are in store by Friday with the effects of our next Pacific storm system on the way. A noticeable increase in clouds and humidity will occur as the Southerly flow intensifies with the next system deepening out West. The associated pressure differential will create the gusty winds. Fog may be an issue for Friday morning with the return flow in place. I will re-assess this possibility in later forecasts. The pattern favors a continued parade of Pacific storm systems, and this next one will a bit stronger across our area. The current projections show this system diving SE, with the core (surface low) of the system passing closer to our area. Rain chances will return to the forecast late Friday as deeper moisture moves in ahead of the front. Boundary layer moisture will increase, and the cap in the mid and upper levels will slowly erode. Morning lows will be above seasonal norms in the low to mid 50s while afternoon highs climb into the mid 70s. Only a slight chance of showers is indicated for Friday at this time, as the main thrust of the system will still be downstream. Rain chances will increase further for the Friday night-Saturday period as the Pacific front draws near and eventually through the area. This should evolve quickly, as the pattern this time of year typically favors that. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent Friday night, and I can't guarantee that Mardi Gras weekend will start off on a dry note. By the same token, it doesn't look like a wash out either. Further fine tuning is expected in the coming days. Lift and instability increase Friday night in the pre-frontal environment. A surface low will develop ahead of the front over Texas, and that will enhance the moisture influx across the region, thus increasing our rain chances. Mild weather will remain in place Friday night with temperatures only falling to between 55 and 60 across the area.
Our best chance of rain this forecast period looks to come on Saturday. This will have implications on Mardi Gras festivities. Unlike the previous systems, this next front will likely produce a better opportunity for rain and thunderstorms, and the possibility of some severe weather. The aspect of severe weather is still uncertain at this point, but a glance at the synoptic set up by models favors this idea. Any cold front working its way across the country this time of year, can bring with it a chance of severe weather. Severe weather outbreaks have occurred in recent days to our North. We will have to see if this is our time. March is a prime month for severe weather in Louisiana. Models also suggest that it may rain most of the day Saturday, or we'll at least have a shot at seeing rain off and on during the day Saturday. Rainfall totals should be an inch or less. Much needed rainfall will occur, but not enough to alleviate the drought situation. The surface low will likely track from the Red River Valley of NE Texas into the Mid West during the day Saturday, and that will put us in a favorable spot for a continuation of warm Gulf air to be pumped in over the area. The Pacific front will wring out the moisture like a sponge. Plan on a wet day Saturday if you heading out to any Mardi Gras parades or other festivities. Temperatures will remain mild in the pre-frontal environment with highs reaching the mid 70s again. The front arrives late in the day, bringing an end to the rain and ushering in a cooler environment.
The weekend will definitely be a tale of two different weather days. Sunday looks absolutely beautiful with high pressure building in behind Saturday's front. CAA takes over Saturday night, and a return of below normal temperatures is expected. Skies clear out Saturday night as the front departs. Temperatures by sunrise Sunday will be in the mid 40s. A Northerly breeze will be present Sunday, and high temperatures will be below normal with readings only reaching the mid 60s. Any Mardi Gras festivities Sunday get the thumbs up. It might feel a touch cool with the fresh Northerly breezes in place, but overall it should be a Marvelous March day. An active weather pattern will remain in place. A nice start is expected for Lundi Gras on Monday. Plenty of sunshine is expected to start the day Monday with a cool start with readings generally in the low to mid 40s. The progressive pattern will allow for high pressure to push Eastward on Monday with Gulf air returning in the afternoon. Clouds will begin to increase as the day wears on with the increased humidity. It should remain dry, however, with highs reaching the upper 60s to around 70 or so. Just beyond this forecast period is the all important Mardi Gras Day itself...right now, it appears as though it may be a race against time with regards to the culmination of Carnival 2011. The next potent Pacific system will be hanging in the balance, gathering steam downstream. Certainly, cloud cover and humidity will be on the increase with a high pressure located over the SE U.S., and a developing low to our West. Rain chances may return for the afternoon and evening depending on how the system evolves. Either way, Mardi Gras 2011 looks mild with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. It may be quite breezy as well with the system downstream. The main thrust of the system near the end of the forecast period may wait until Ash Wednesday with the potential for another severe weather outbreak across parts of the country.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/70 43/72 46/73 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 48/70 44/71 45/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 45/71 45/72 48/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 43/67 40/70 42/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 43/67 41/70 43/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 49/70 44/71 45/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cooler. Low 46. North wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 70. North wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 43. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 72. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 46. Light East wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 73. ESE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday 3/1/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Refreshing
Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 11
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 13
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
3-1-11
Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Wednesday
3-2-11
Low: 43
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday
3-3-11
Low: 46
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10
Friday
3-4-11
Low: 51
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
3-5-11
Low: 58
High: 74
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-20
Sunday
3-6-11
Low: 48
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Monday
3-7-11
Low: 45
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 6:41a.m. 7:41p.m.
High: 2:51a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.66'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, February 28, 2011
Low: 69
Normal Low: 47
Record Low: 26-1913
High: 81
Normal High: 68
Record High: 85-1932
Rainfall
Today: 0.02"
Month to Date: 1.55"
Normal Month to Date: 3.28"
Year to Date: 6.66"
Normal Year to Date: 8.80"
Record: 1.44"- 1995
Significant Weather Observed:
Light Rain
Fog
Haze
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 37
High: 65
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 50
High: 74
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 55
High: 68
Rain: 0.02"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:39a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 6:12p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:09a.m.-6:42p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Friday March 4
First Quarter- Saturday March 12
Full Moon- Saturday March 19
Last Quarter- Saturday March 26
Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM-
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