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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Open all the windows and doors! This has been a Marvelous March day with high pressure in control across the Deep South in the wake of the cold front which moved through early on Ash Wednesday. It was a day of wall to wall sunshine on this Thursday with very pleasant temperatures and low humidity values. Morning lows were generally in the mid 40s while afternoon highs approached 70. That's basically a normal day for the second week of March. Tonight will be a prime night of radiational cooling with light or calm winds and crystal clear skies. Super dry air will remain in place as a surface ridge will be virtually right over the forecast area. Dew point readings were in the 20s on Thursday afternoon, and as per usual these readings will increase somewhat overnight, but the temperature will plummet with the dry air in place. The readings near 70 this afternoon will give way to readings in the mid to upper 30s by sunrise Friday. That is on the chilly side for sure, and it will likely produce a late season frost for many locations especially North of I-10 with patchy frost even here in the Lake Area. A late season frost isn't all that unusual, and I've been expecting it anyway, so it's really right on schedule. You will want to grab a jacket or a coat for sure as you head out tomorrow morning, and you may also want to protect your tender vegetation from the potential for frost overnight. The coldest readings will occur near sunrise and only last an hour or two. The fantastic weather will prevail Friday with wall to wall sunshine in store yet again. The cold start will give way to another very comfortable afternoon with high temperatures similar to Thursday with readings topping out near 70. It is very common with these dry air masses in place in the Spring to have a very large diurnal range, and Friday will be no exception to that. The controlling high providing us this awesome weather will translate slowly Eastward across the Deep South during the day Friday, and the current offshore flow will slowly transition to a light onshore flow. Humidity values will remain very low for Friday.
Air mass modification begins Friday night as the onshore flow is established. Clear skies will remain in place, but humidity values will increase, and temperatures will follow suit. We will have no threat of a repeat frosty performance, but we introduce another "f" word to the forecast...fog! Some patchy fog development can't be ruled out in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. It shouldn't be a major issue, however, since relatively dry air will still be in place. Just the presence of a low-level onshore flow is all it takes this time of year for at least some ground fog. Temperatures will be some 8-12 degrees warmer for Saturday morning with readings back into the mid to upper 40s on average. The weekend will start off quite nicely with another very pleasant Springlike day in store for the second Saturday of March, a complete 180 from last Saturday. Some clouds enter the equation as the day progresses Saturday with an increase in low-level moisture noted, but overall it will still be a beautiful day. Afternoon highs will hold in the upper 60s to around 70 given the marine influen ce. It looks great for all outdoor activities. Perhaps, a better chance for fog will exist for Sunday morning with a deeper low-level onshore flow in place. Air mass modification will continue with the forecast area on the Western edge of a large high pressure system. Temperatures at sunrise Sunday will generally be in the lower 50s or so. Here's a friendly reminder before I continue, don't forget to change your clocks Saturday night into Sunday. It is time to spring forward, so we will lose that precious hour of sleep. That part sucks for sure! Just don't forget to change your clocks, I wouldn't want anyone to be late for church on Sunday. Back to the forecast now, the dry period will continue for Sunday with generally just Partly Cloudy skies in place. Temperatures will be seasonable with readings between 70 and 75. Clouds will increase throughout the day as our next system approaches from the W and NW, but this weekend should be totally dry!
The next system to have impacts on our region will come in the Sunday night-Monday time frame. However, there are many differences this time around when you compare this forthcoming system to its predecessors. There are model discrepancies with respect to the handling of said system, but either way it doesn't look nearly as potent as the previous ones. The pattern will continue to favor the passage of Pacific cold fronts with the coldest air remaining bottled up to well to our North. Deeper moisture will be entrenched across the area by Sunday night with plenty of clouds expected. As the cold front approaches, lift will increase and the chance for showers will enter the forecast. Mid and upper level ridging is indicated to remain in place by some models, therefore, a large chance of rain is not expected. Certainly, there will be a chance for scattered activity in the overnight hours of Sunday through the day on Monday. A much milder regime is expected with lows in the upper 50s. Mostly Cloudy skies with scattered showers will be the prevailing weather for Monday. The cold front will reach the area in a weakened state, and it will also be slowing down as it does so. Models disagree on the strength and timing of the front, and the amount of rainfall. The front will slide through the area Monday afternoon as an additional piece of Jet Stream energy (short wave) dives out of the Great Plains. This will help push the front into the coastal waters by Monday evening thus ending the small rain chances. No severe weather is expected, but I couldn't rule out some isolated thunderstorms if more instability is in place. Mild conditions will continue with highs generally range from 70-75 once again. The onshore flow switches back to an offshore flow behind the front late in the day.
The deeper moisture will be scoured out by the weak front. A renewed area of Pacific high pressure builds in on Tuesday. Beautiful weather will be in store, but temperatures won't really be much cooler at all. The main difference with this next front will be much drier air. Temperatures should be at seasonal at the coolest, but will likely be a few degrees above the norm for mid-March. The period of Tuesday through Thursday should be rather benign with the influences of high pressure along the Gulf Coastal Plain. Plenty of sunshine is expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. The surface high will slowly migrate Eastward by the end of the forecast period on Thursday, which happens to be St. Patrick's Day. The Luck o' the Irish should be with us this St. Patrick's Day. A return flow of Gulf air will return at that time, but the forecast should remain dry with the lack of any synoptic features to stir up the atmosphere. Temperatures will be in the 50s for lows and 70s for highs each day Tuesday through Thursday. Some cloud cover may return on Thursday in response to the return of the marine influence via the return flow. Overall, nice spring weather is expected for much of this forecast period with no major rain chances noted anytime soon. There are signs that a bigger system may impact our region just beyond this forecast period around the 18th or 19th, but that is still out in left field at this juncture. Long range indications are for above normal temperatures to develop in the latter half of this month with a typical dry pattern in place across the area. Spring is one of our dry seasons here in SW Louisiana. We're just over a week away from the official beginning of Spring, even though by meteorological standards we've been in Spring since the first of this month.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 37/69 46/70 53/73 0 0 0 0 0 10
LFT 37/68 44/69 51/73 0 0 0 0 0 10
BPT 38/70 47/70 55/74 0 0 0 0 0 10
AEX 34/66 40/70 46/72 0 0 0 0 0 10
POE 34/66 41/70 46/73 0 0 0 0 0 10
ARA 40/68 45/68 52/73 0 0 0 0 0 10
Tonight...Clear & Cold w/ Patchy Frost. Low 37. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 69. East wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear w/ Patchy Fog possible late. Warmer. Low 46. Light SE wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny. High 70. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog after midnight. Low 53. South wind 5-10 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday 3/11/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold w/ Some Patchy Frost
Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 6
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 3
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
3-11-11
Low: 37
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Saturday
3-12-11
Low: 46
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Sunday
3-13-11
Daylight Savings Time Begins...Spring Forward
Low: 53
High: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
3-14-11
Low: 56
High: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
Tuesday
3-15-11
Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
3-16-11
Low: 52
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday
3-17-11
St. Patrick's Day
Low: 57
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 12:37a.m. 11:434a.m.
High: 1:07a.m. 3:24p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.634'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Low: 43
Normal Low: 50
Record Low: 26-1996
High: 69
Normal High: 70
Record High: 89-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.91"
Normal Month to Date: 1.10"
Year to Date: 10.57"
Normal Year to Date: 9.90"
Record: 2.50"- 1926
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 64
High: 74
Rain: 0.02"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 49
High: 80
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 40
High: 64
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 6:28a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:18p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:58a.m.-6:48p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Saturday March 12
Full Moon- Saturday March 19
Last Quarter- Saturday March 26
New Moon- Sunday April 3
Have a great Friday! God Bless!
-DM
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