Before I get to the usual business at hand, I have some news regarding the blog. This blog will remain unchanged from the current format. However, an opportunity has arisen that will hopefully allow me to be very profitable, and do what I love to do at the same time. The web site, www.examiner.com, sort of like an online newspaper or magazine covering a plethora of topics was looking for a work from home meteorologist. I applied, and I was accepted. Therefore, now I will be able to provide this same accurate weather information and hopefully expand my viewership on this site and examiner.com as well. In a nutshell, here's how it works. It doesn't cost you anything to view the site, and anytime someone logs on to read my weather forecasts, I get a kickback. It is unknown at this time how much I will make per month, but I aim to make a profit here. This all seems legit, don't think I didn't investigate this before I committed to it. Also, if anyone were to place an ad on my page, I get an additional $50 every time someone views the page. Just rest assured, that no matter what it will never cost you anything to view this page or the new one. The format of the content on my examiner page will be a bit different. That page will basically just feature the forecast and other pertinent information depending on the current weather situation. I also have the capabilities to load the same video that you will see here. I am still learning the page myself, so bear with me as it is a learning process. I appreciate your support, and hope you will log on often, and help spread the word. I promise you that between this blog and that web site you will have all the weather information for the Lake Charles area that you expect and depend on. There will never be a need to rely on anyone else for accurate weather information. After being accepted for the job, my title is Lake Charles Weather Examiner. I will include a link on this blog, and add it permanently on the right hand side of the page in the links section. Please feel free to leave me any questions or comments you may have.
Get the same accurate weather information & help me out in the process by clicking here:
http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-lake-charles
You can see all of the entries I have posted so far. I will also continue to post a link for this site and for the new site on my facebook page. Now onto the forecast...
Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the full length text block.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It wasn't a bad last Monday of March. Drier and somewhat cooler conditions existed in the wake of the weak cold front which slid through the area Sunday. Skies were generally in the Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy range. Temperatures were in the refreshing 50s this morning, while this afternoon readings in the mid 70s were commonplace. There is much colder air hovering just to our North, with persistent cloud cover over the Northern half of the state. This front tapped into some Canadian air, but it essentially bypassed our area because the cold front was in a weakening state as it pushed through Sunday. It was another dry day across the entire area, but that will be changing in the not so distant future. For tonight, however, the dry weather will continue. Weak surface high pressure is in control, and we will see a quiet night across the forecast area with lows down into the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy. The previously mentioned cold front has stalled just offshore, and will be transitioning into a warm front heading into Tuesday. Light surface winds are expected overnight.
The overall weather pattern begins to change Tuesday. The front will retreat Northward as a warm front through the entire forecast area. The warm & humid air mass will be hovering just offshore, and will overspread the area during the day. High temperatures will be back into the upper 70s to lower 80s with an onshore flow commencing yet again. At the same time, a potent Spring storm system will be translating ESE across the country. Moisture will increase as the day wears on, and some shower activity is expected for the afternoon hours. These showers should be quick-moving and light in nature as the boundary layer moistens up. A disturbance embedded in the increasingly active Jet Stream will emanate out ahead of the main system, and help to induce the chance for rain across this part of the world on Tuesday. Initially, the atmosphere will remain largely capped with high pressure in the mid and upper levels slow to erode. Some of the showers that develop Tuesday afternoon could build up into a quick thunderstorm especially as the perturbation moves our way, and daytime heating takes effect. However, mostly showers are expected at least early in the game. Rain chances will be in the slight category during the day Tuesday. Moisture levels continue to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, and a better synoptic set up will be in place for shower & thunderstorm activity. As the ejecting perturbation (upper level disturbance) and associated surface low translate Eastward overnight, moisture will pool as the deep tropical moisture flows in from the Gulf. Instability and lifting will increase as well. Some of the parameters necessary for the development of severe weather will be in place, and be sufficient enough for some potentially adverse weather.
The best opportunity for rainfall in weeks will come in this Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame. The severe weather threat is a marginal issue at this point, and from everything I have examined, it appears the main threat from any severe weather will come in the form of damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat seems very low this go around with only marginal low-level shear in place. I certainly can't rule out an isolated tornado, but hail and wind are clearly the main threats. The entire forecast area is highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 Outlook. The spotty showers from Tuesday afternoon may die off during the evening hours with the warm sector firmly entrenched at that time. The rain chances will jump into the likely category overnight through Wednesday morning as the main thrust of this system pushes our way. The trough will roll through the Rockies and Great Plains, and the cold front will trail from the aforementioned surface reflection over the Red River Valley. This scenario is likely to generate scattered showers & storms along & just ahead of the front from the Great Plains down to the Rio Grande Valley late Tuesday. This area will consolidate overnight, and congeal into a squall line as it migrates Eastward. Some of the rainfall will be heavy at times, and average QPF for this event may be around 1". We can easily handle this amount of rainfall as we are very dry at the moment. Any rain will be beneficial to the area this point. The mild weather will continue in the pre-frontal environment, and temperatures will only fall to the mid 60s or so with rain off and on overnight.
The main threat for rainfall and severe weather looks to come between about 4a.m. and 10a.m. Wednesday, possibly extending until as late as noon. The squall line (MCS) will push through the area just ahead of the cold front. Cold air aloft will create the hail threat, and the pressure differential and strong Jet Stream winds aloft will support the damaging wind threat. The greatest tornado threat will likely be from Central Louisiana down into Acadiana where a little bit better wind shear will be present. Heavy rain will be likely during this time as well. The exact timing of when all of this will transpire across our area is still up for grabs, but there is reasonable enough consistency at this point to suggest the aforementioned time frame. You will want to allow yourself extra time to get to work or school Wednesday morning. It will also be advisable to have your severe weather plan of action in place just in case. The unseasonably warm and humid weather will be replaced with a much more pleasant air mass as much drier and cooler air filters into the region behind this much stronger front. There will be a period of post-frontal rain Wednesday as the drier air lags behind just a bit in the boundary layer. The threat for severe weather will come to an end as the front passes through the area. Temperatures won't move much Wednesday given the timing of the front, and may actually fall off a bit as CAA takes over behind the front in the morning, before making somewhat of a recovery in the afternoon. Temperatures will only make it to the low to mid 70s as CAA tries to offset daytime heating. Cloudiness will hold firm for much of the day Wednesday. Rain chances will taper off from the likely category in the morning, but remain in the 30-40% range during the afternoon.
Rain chances will come to an end Wednesday night as the period of overrunning ends. High pressure will build in at all levels of the atmosphere heading into Thursday. CAA will result in trending temperatures to below normal levels. Minimum temperatures will fall well down into the 50s by sunrise Thursday morning with the coldest locations north of Hwy. 190 likely falling into the upper 40s, so don't go putting the jackets away just yet. That will seem even colder because we've had several days of 80 degree weather already. Lingering showers are possible until around midnight or so Thursday morning, skies should clear beyond that point. That sets us up beautifully for the latter half of this work week with plenty of sunshine to close out the month of March. March will hold true to form and go out like a lamb here in 2011 it would appear. Let's hope we get our beneficial rains because after Wednesday rain chances will be non-existent for the remainder of the week. As high pressure nudges closer to the area Thursday, we will experience nothing but sunshine and pleasant temperatures with highs generally in the low to mid 70s. It will be quite comfortable with a nice offshore breeze and low humidity. Winds will be out of the N becoming NE during the day dropping off from around 15 mph in the morning to less than 10 mph in the afternoon with high pressure in place.
A positive reinforcement arrives Friday in the form of a weaker cold front. No sensible weather is expected ahead of this front, with an absence of low level moisture in place. There might be a few clouds dotting the landscape from time to time in the afternoon with a brief return flow in place. All in all it will be a nice day with only slightly higher humidity, and slightly warmer temperatures. Morning lows will be around seasonal norms to kickoff the month of April while afternoon highs reach the mid 70s one more time. The dry reinforcing front clears the area by the evening hours, and the quiet regime will take us into the weekend. It looks like this upcoming weekend will feature a period of Absolutely Awesome April weather. Saturday looks about perfect with lots of sunshine, low humidity, and perfect Springlike temperatures. Morning lows will be on the cool side with mid to upper 40s possible in much of the area, tempered to the low to mid 50s coastal parishes. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. A light offshore flow will be present. For Sunday, it still looks nice but the controlling high pressure will be shifting Eastward allowing for a return of Gulf air by late in the day. Plenty of sunshine is on tap with just slightly higher humidity. Morning temps will still be a little cool, but will be back closer to normal for early April with readings in the mid 50s. Afternoon highs will likely reach or exceed the 80 degree mark once again. Looking at the end of the forecast period briefly, more humidity and warmer conditions are on tap for Monday ahead of our next Pacific storm due in just beyond this forecast period. Morning lows will be in the mid 60s while afternoon highs may reach the mid 80s. It has the potential to be the warmest day so far this year ahead of a front due in on Tuesday. Rain chances will return next Tuesday as well. Hopefully we will definitely get our April showers, to have the May flowers!!!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 59/82 63/73 53/74 10 20 60 70 30 0
CAM 65/77 65/73 55/75 10 20 60 70 30 0
LFT 61/83 64/75 54/75 10 20 60 70 30 0
ARA 62/81 65/76 55/75 10 20 60 70 30 0
BPT 60/83 65/72 55/76 10 30 70 60 30 0
AEX 50/80 55/68 48/72 10 30 70 60 30 0
POE 50/80 55/68 48/72 10 30 70 60 30 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 59. Light East wind.
Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. An isolated thunderstorm or two. High 82. East wind 5-10 mph becoming SSE at 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall & severe thunderstorms possible with damaging winds & large hail the main threats. Low 63. SSW wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday...Showers & thunderstorms likely in the morning. Some severe storms w/ damaging winds & large hail possible. Severe weather threat ending by noon. Periods of light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. Turning Cooler. High 73. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW around 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70% in the morning, tapering off to 40% in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers until around midnight. Decreasing Cloudiness after midnight. Much cooler. Low 53. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 74. North wind 10 mph.
Tuesday 3/29/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 8
Noon
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 13
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Scattered Showers
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 17
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Scattered Showers
Temp: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 18
9p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Scattered Showers & T-Storms
Temp: 73
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 16
Drew's 7 Day Forecast
Tuesday
3-29-11
Low: 57
High: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: E/SSE 15-20
Wednesday
3-30-11
Low: 63
High: 73
Rain: 70% Morning...40% Afternoon
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Thursday
3-31-11
Low: 53
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Friday
4-1-11
April Fool's Day
Low: 51
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Saturday
4-2-11
Low: 48
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
4-3-11
Low: 55
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15
Monday
4-4-11
Low: 64
High: 84
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight....East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday...North winds around 10 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 6:31a.m. 7:37p.m.
High: 2:32p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.56'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, March 28, 2011
Low: 55
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 30-1913
High: 76
Normal High: 74
Record High: 87-1910
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.91"
Normal Month to Date: 3.21"
Year to Date: 10.57"
Normal Year to Date: 12.01"
Record: 2.72"- 1992
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
Haze
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 51
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 57
High: 74
Rain: 0.08"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 46
High: 63
Rain: 2.67"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:06a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:30p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:36a.m.-8:00p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Sunday April 3
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM
No comments:
Post a Comment