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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a beautiful day to end the month of March. There were some clouds as some wrap-around cloudiness from the previous storm system traversed the horizon mainly in the morning hours. It was seasonably cool as well with plenty of sunshine in place, and temperatures in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Morning lows were on the cool side with many locations starting out in the 40s. High pressure is in control at the surface providing for these wonderful conditions after it was one "hail" of a start to the day on Wednesday. No such worries with that over the next few days. It will be a quiet end to this month of March. Clear skies, light winds, and cool temps are on the menu this fine Thursday evening. Expect overnight with readings generally in the lower 50s, but some locations may very well reach the upper 40s again especially towards the usual cold spots such as Oakdale or DeRidder. The current controlling high pressure will persist for Friday, and as a result April will get off to an Absolutely Awesome start. The clear & cool morning will give way to a beautiful and pleasant afternoon. High temperatures should reach the the upper 70s to around 80, but with humidity values quite low once again it will feel magnificent...no fooling! We will have some of the nicest weather in the country for April Fool's Day. Our big mid-week system will be turning up the East Coast, and it looks like a late season Nor'Easter will develop in New England.
A weaker cold front will push Southward into parts of the state late Friday and Friday night. This front might stir up some cloudiness across the area. However, the actual front will never make it through the forecast area. It will likely dissipate as it heads into Central Louisiana. Areas closer to the front may have a slight chance of seeing a brief shower, but moisture is limited, and most of us will barely see any clouds, so no rain chance is mentioned. The usual process of air mass modification will ensue Friday as well. The return flow will commence, and this will be reflected more so by Friday night as low temperatures moderate from the lower 50s to the middle to upper 50s. Tranquility will remain. The first weekend of April should be a winner, and it would be "foolish" to let it pass by without getting out to enjoy. Saturday should feature plentiful sunshine and warmer temps. Some cumulus clouds may return by the afternoon as moisture levels slowly increase, but all in all I'll err on the side of Mostly Sunny for Saturday. High temperatures will easily flirt with 80, and will certainly penetrate it in some areas. It will be much milder and humid by Sunday. A more pronounced onshore flow will be in place as a vigorous storm system moves into the Rockies....more on that in a minute! The pressure differences will increase, and the onshore flow will intensify. Skies will be Partly Cloudy with morning lows back above seasonal norms in the lower to middle 60s across the area. High temperatures will once again be on the warm side with average highs in the lower 80s. Soak up the sun after church! You might even want to break out the shorts!!!
I want you to enjoy the prettiness that is in store this weekend, but at the same time you need to begin to be aware of potentially adverse weather conditions early next week. Things began to go downhill Monday. This next system appears to be more robust than its predecessor. A strong onshore flow will pump up copious amounts of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as the Pacific originating system deepens in the Great Plains. A sharpening trough and attendant cold front will push ESE across our great country. Jet Stream energy will ignite a surface low Monday afternoon, and the same low will eject NE into the Mid West via strong SW winds from the Jet Stream. Monday will start off on the dry side with generally just Mostly Cloudy skies, warm & humid conditions. It will almost be summerlike with morning lows around 70, believe it or not. A chance for showers & storms will return to the forecast on a scattered basis Monday afternoon as deeper moisture moves in, and the upper level cap erodes with the trough pushing down. Temperatures should once again crack the 80 degree threshold. The models are consistent with the set up that favors severe weather yet again, however, there are still many differences with models as well. Timing is always an issue this far out. It does appear that the greatest risk for showers & thunderstorms will come in the overnight hours into Tuesday. While it is still 4-5 days away, there is plenty of time to get specific about this event. At this point, my analysis leads me to believe that this time around all modes of severe weather will be possible. The severe weather outbreak may begin during the afternoon on Monday with some isolated convection, but widespread showers & storms will affect the area Monday night with the greatest risk likely after midnight Tuesday morning. There will be plenty of instability and lifting in place. Another parameters for severe weather looks to be prominent. Heavy rainfall will once again be possible in this time frame. Stay tuned for more specificity in the days ahead.
Improvement will come at some point on Tuesday depending on the ultimate timing of said system. The cold front will slide into the forecast area with ease in the morning hours Tuesday with the strong surface low ejecting into the Mid West. Warm temperatures will remain in place in the pre-frontal environment with morning lows running in the mid 60s or so. Now, it won't warm up much Tuesday because of the timing of the front once again. Afternoon highs shouldn't eclipse the mid 70 plateau, and it could even stay cooler than that depending on how much cold air filters in behind this front. The front will easily push into the coastal waters taking the unseasonably warm & humid weather with it. CAA takes over, and the onshore flow will be replaced with an offshore flow as you would expect in the wake of the front. A chance for showers & thunderstorms is maintained at this time for Tuesday, particularly in the morning hours. However, the current forecast will reflect highest rain chances coming in the pre-dawn hours before tapering off during the day. Not much rain should be left by Tuesday afternoon, but there might a period of some post-frontal rains. Clouds will hang tough through the day Tuesday, but certainly conditions will improve by the afternoon hours. High pressure will be building in beyond Tuesday.
Speaking of that high pressure, that will dominate the remainder of the forecast. Another batch of Absolutely Awesome April weather is expected for mid week extending into the latter half of the first full week of April. Expect nothing but sunshine Wednesday and Thursday along with cooler but pleasant temperatures. This will classify as another Spring cool snap for sure. Morning lows may dip into the 40s for Wednesday and Thursday while afternoon highs trend below normal as well. We may not even make it to 70 on Wednesday as a cool breeze continues over the area. High pressure should be right over head Thursday, allowing for CAA to cease. The combination of plenty of sunshine and the dry air mass will result in a large diurnal range. As air mass modification ensues, high temperatures should get back above the 70 degree mark just like that. Dry weather looks to continue just beyond the scope of this forecast period for the end of next week, but as the controlling high slips Eastward, we will begin to experience the return flow yet again. More humidity will be in place by next Friday, but at this time it looks like it will remain dry. The next opportunity for rain may come over the following weekend, April 9-10 with another decent cold front traversing the nation, and heading for the Gulf Coast.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 52/80 57/81 62/80 0 0 10 10 0 10
CAM 56/77 61/77 65/75 0 0 10 10 0 10
LFT 53/81 55/82 61/81 0 0 10 10 0 10
ARA 54/80 58/80 62/79 0 0 10 10 0 10
BPT 54/82 59/83 63/81 0 0 10 10 0 10
AEX 47/81 55/83 59/82 0 0 10 10 0 10
POE 48/81 55/83 59/82 0 0 10 10 0 10
Tonight...Clear. Low 52. Light West wind becoming South.
Friday...Sunny. High 80. SW wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 57. Light South wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny. High 81. South wind 10 mph or less.
Saturday Night..Mostly Clear. Low 62. SSE wind 5 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy & Breezy. High 80. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday 4/1/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Refreshing
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 4
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 5
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 7
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
4-1-11
April Fool's Day
Low: 52
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 5-10
Saturday
4-2-11
Low: 57
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 10
Sunday
4-3-11
Low: 62
High: 80
Rain: 10%
wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
4-4-11
Low: 69
High: 81
Rain: 60% Late PM...80% Overnight
Wind: SSE 20-25
Tuesday
4-5-11
Low: 65
High: 74
Rain: 80% Early...40% after daybreak
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-30
Wednesday
4-6-11
Low: 49
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Thursday
4-7-11
Low: 45
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight....West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 8:53a.m. 9:06p.m.
High: 2:26p.m. 2:58p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.49'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Low: 50
Normal Low: 54
Record Low: 31-1987
High: 74
Normal High: 74
Record High: 88-1946
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 5.58"
Normal Month to Date: 3.54"
Year to Date: 12.24"
Normal Year to Date: 12.34"
Record: 2.33"- 1921
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 49
High: 73
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 70
High: 81
Rain: Trace
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 50
High: 76
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:02a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:32p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:32a.m.-8:02p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Sunday April 3
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
Have a great Friday! God Bless!
-DM
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