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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Anyone remember the tune "Changes" by David Bowie? Hence, the title of this entry! I like to intertwine my love of weather with my love of music from time to time, and today is another one of those times when it foots the bill. We will endure many ch-ch-changes over the next few days. This Wednesday has been a Marvelous March day with plenty of sunshine and low humidity. It was cool this morning with temperatures generally in the low to mid 40s. This afternoon, under Mostly Sunny skies readings reached above seasonal values yet again with mid 70s realized. A few high clouds streamed across the horizon from time to time to interrupt the otherwise pristine blue skies. The beginnings of the advertised changes are already taking shape tonight. Dew points have risen into the mid 50s as a return flow of Gulf moisture has commenced across the forecast area. The controlling surface high has shifted far enough Eastward to allow this to occur. This will have an impact on temperatures and sky conditions for tonight into Thursday. Some areas of patchy fog are possible by sunrise Thursday with the marine influence becoming more pronounced, however, fog should not be a major issue for the Thursday morning commute with still some semblance of dry air in place in the boundary layer. The onshore flow will create a milder beginning to Thursday as well. Expect temperatures to start the day around 50 or so, several degrees warmer than that of the last couple mornings.
A WAA regime is on tap for Thursday, and the presence of a low cloud (stratus) deck will exist for much of the day as moisture advects into the boundary layer. Surface moisture will continue to increase as well with a more pronounced onshore flow in the offing. All of this will occur ahead of our next storm system which is still developing downstream. We are in the midst of a very progressive Pacific pattern at this time. Some atmospheric mixing will help break up some of the clouds in the afternoon, thus a mix of sun and clouds is expected for the afternoon on Thursday. Patchy fog should burn off by mid-morning as the early March sun angle helps to dissipate the fog. It will be another mild day, with temperatures warming into the middle 70s yet again. No rain is expected Thursday, with limited moisture in the mid and upper levels and no present lifting mechanism in place. The warm air advection regime ramps up further Thursday night with the development of patchy drizzle and areas of dense fog overnight into Friday morning. A strong marine influence will be in place The increasing onshore flow may help preclude a widespread dense fog episode, but there will certainly be some areas of dense fog for the morning commute Friday. Rain chances will remain out of the forecast for one more period with no more than some patchy drizzle with the fog expected. Mild temperatures are expected with readings only falling into the lower 60s at best by sunrise Friday.
More significant changes occur on Friday as the next Pacific storm system comes out of the Rockies, and ejects into the Great Plains down to the Red River Valley. Deeper Gulf moisture will continue to flow over the region, and with moisture pooling and lifting slowly increasing through the day a few air mass or streamer showers are expected Friday afternoon. Winds will be on the increase as well with a significant pressure differential in place as the Pacific storm approaches, and the surface high remains located to our East. The shower activity that develops should be on a scattered basis, and the showers will be brief. Instability will still be absent, so only showers are expected for Friday afternoon. A warm day is expected with readings reaching at least the mid 70s, some upper 70s are possible if we get more breaks in the clouds. A general mix of clouds and sun is expected with more clouds than sun it would appear. The period of Friday night will offer a continuation of the warm air regime with more scattered showers expected. There could be some passing showers as the first floats of the weekend pass through the streets of Lake Charles, but the chance for showers should only have minor implications on the Mardi Gras weekend kickoff festivities. Mild weather is int the offing temperatures holding in the 60s. The onshore breezes will continue with Southerly winds in the 15-20 mph at times with the strong Springlike Pacific storm drawing closer to the region.
The Pacific storm, and its attendant cold front will kick through the area Saturday. Models continue to be very consistent with this idea. There are still some discrepancies between models concerning the timing and strength. However, at this point it appears to me that the front will most likely pass through the area between noon and 6p.m. Saturday. I will narrow it down further on Thursday since we'll be within about 48 hours of said frontal passage. The prospects of severe weather still exist as well. I am favoring a quicker moving front, and a very quick shot of severe storms with the formation of a squall line over East Texas. The squall line will move Eastward, and march through SW Louisiana and Acadiana in the afternoon hours Saturday. Some pre-frontal shower and thunderstorm activity is possible Saturday as instability and lifting increase. The favorable dynamics for severe weather will move over the area during this time. A surface low will form Friday over Texas, and it will emanate NE out ahead of the cold front into the Mid West Saturday. The Jet Stream will become active, and the forecast area will be in the favorable right front quadrant at least for a short time. Better dynamics may come together further to our East over SE Louisiana. Thus, the greater risk of severe weather may be to our North closer to the surface low, and to our East closer to the best dynamics. However, it is not safe to assume that we won't have at least some isolated severe storms in the area. Damaging wind appears to be the main threat at this juncture, but an isolated tornado or two and some large hail can't be totally ruled out. There will be plenty of cold air aloft for this system to work with. As the surface low kicks NE, the attendant will trail from the surface low back into Texas, and sweep SE through the forecast area. The potential for some heavy downpours will exist as well, but we need the rainfall so this will not be an issue with respect to flooding. Rainfall totals of around an inch or so are to be expected. This will certainly have some implications on the Mardi Gras festivities. The good news is that once the front does come through, the rain abruptly comes to an end with much drier and cooler air filtering into the region. This will not be a situation with much in the way of post-frontal rains. These spring systems typically bring in the drier and cooler air at all levels at the same time, and that looks like the case this time. Temperatures will be mild until frontal passage on Saturday with readings approaching 70 ahead of the front, before falling back into the lower 60s late in the day with CAA in place.
Skies clear out Saturday night as high pressure moves in behind the front. It will remain windy with Northerly winds up to 20 mph at times adding a noticeable nip to the air. Take that into consideration as you head out for any Mardi Gras festivities. Under clear skies, temperatures will fall to at or below normal levels for the first week of March. It will feel even chillier than the mid 40s with the wind and given that it'll have been in the 70s just a few hours earlier. The passing front will push well into the Gulf of Mexico, and with high pressure building in that will set the stage for an absolutely beautiful Sunday. Nothing but sunshine is expected Sunday, but it will be a bit cool by early March standards. It should be fantastic parade weather, however, with highs in the mid 60s and low humidity. Gusty winds in the morning will slacken during the day becoming light out of a Northerly direction as surface high pressure moves much closer to the area. Anything you have planned outdoors after church looks great. I bet there will be thousands of cries of "Throw Me Something, Mister" on Sunday. The cooler than normal pattern will continue for the Sunday night-Monday period as our extended weekend continues. Clear skies and light winds should set the stage for radiaitonal cooling Sunday night with low temperatures in the lower 40s. Some upper 30s will be possible in the coldest locations North of I-10, and I couldn't rule out some patchy frost up that way. Monday will be a nice day with plenty of sunshine in place. High temperatures will reach normal values in the upper 60s. A very progressive pattern will be in place, and a return flow may set up by late in the day Monday, if not before sunset, then certainly overnight.
That brings us to the all important Mardi Gras day itself! Forecast philosophy hasn't changed since the last forecast package. A mainly dry day is expected with a general mix of sun and clouds. It will be mild and breezy as well. Humidity will be on the increase with a pronounced onshore flow in place. We will be in transition from the nice weather of Sunday and Monday, and another vigorous Pacific storm system due to effect us mid-week. Temperatures for Mardi Gras morning will be much warmer with minimums close to the 50 degree mark, give or take a few degrees. That's about perfect for chasing some chickens. There could also be a hint of fog first thing Tuesday morning, but that shouldn't be much of an issue really. As the day progresses, the beads will increase and so will the clouds and humidity. High temperatures will reach the mid 70s as it stands right now. It will be comfortable for all the party-goers. Deeper moisture will translate Northward into the area by late in the day, and there might be enough lift in place, and enough erosion of the mid and upper level cap to produce a few air mass type showers late in the day, but I don't see much chance for rain of any consequence at this point. I will not mention any rain chance right now for Tuesday, but understand there could be some sprinkles. That being said, Mardi Gras 2011 should culminate without any weather worries other than the small 6-12 window on Saturday. The active regime remains in tact at the end of the forecast period with another vigorous storm hanging in the balance for Ash Wednesday. This system will parallel its predecessor in that a surface low will likely form, and translate NE through the day. The trailing cold front will slide SE into the forecast area. Moisture pooling ahead of said frontal boundary and increasing lift and instability will likely generate a decent shot of shower and thunderstorm activity. It is also within the realm of possibility that another severe weather set up will be in place across the area. It is too early to speculate with any specificity at this point, but with any system this time of year a severe weather threat is a possibility. Let us hone in on Saturday's system first, before we wax eloquently about the Ash Wednesday system and its possible ramifications on the forecast area. This mid-week system should clear out of here in the latter stages of next week providing another round of spectacular Spring weather into the following weekend.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 50/73 60/75 63/72 0 0 10 20 30 70
LFT 48/74 59/75 61/73 0 0 10 20 30 70
BPT 52/75 61/75 64/70 0 0 10 20 30 70
AEX 46/71 55/76 59/67 0 0 10 20 30 80
POE 47/71 56/76 60/67 0 0 10 20 30 80
ARA 49/72 60/75 62/71 0 0 10 20 30 70
Tonight...Mostly Clear w/ some Patchy Fog late. Low 50. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with areas of dense fog and patchy drizzle after midnight. Low 60. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Areas of Fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers in the afternoon. High 75. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 63. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Cloudy & Windy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall & some severe thunderstorms possible. Rainfall totals 1/2-1". High 72 with temperatures falling back to 62 late. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20 mph and gusty in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday 3/3/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear w/ Patchy Fog
Temp: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 9
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
3-3-11
Low: 50
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
3-4-11
Low: 60
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
3-5-11
Low: 63
High: 72
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
Sunday
3-6-11
Low: 44
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Monday
3-7-11
Low: 42
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/E 5-10
Tuesday
3-8-11
Mardi Gras
Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-20
Wednesday
3-9-11
Ash Wednesday
Low: 61
High: 72
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 8:03a.m. 8:43p.m.
High: 1:01a.m. 3:22p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.63'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Low: 45
Normal Low: 48
Record Low: 24-1913
High: 76
Normal High: 68
Record High: 84-1905
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.22"
Year to Date: 6.66"
Normal Year to Date: 9.02"
Record: 2.54"- 2001
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 40
High: 58
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 54
High: 77
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 56
High: 61
Rain: 2.54"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:37a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:13p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:07a.m.-6:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Friday March 4
First Quarter- Saturday March 12
Full Moon- Saturday March 19
Last Quarter- Saturday March 26
Have a great Thursday! God Bless!
-DM-
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