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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The icky feeling to the air is on its way out as we speak. Our latest Pacific cold front has moved through the area on this Monday evening. Ahead of it, some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity was prevalent across the balance of the forecast area. The axis of heavier rain this go around was North of the Hwy. 190 corridor with 1-3" of rain in that area. Rain amounts tapered off further South from there with generally an inch or less along the I-10 corridor. Some strong storms occurred in the same regions that experienced the heavier rains with some gusty winds and hail. No severe weather occurred in our part of the world today. Ahead of the nice boundary it remained warm and humid with temperatures easily eclipsing the 70 degree threshold. A steady onshore flow kept deep tropical moisture pumping into the area from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the front. The pre-frontal environment was favorable for some beneficial rains, but certainly some of us will end up disappointed with the amount of rainfall that occurred across the area. A much cooler and drier air mass is in transit as the cold front drops into the coastal waters tonight. The atmosphere will quickly dry out. High pressure will become established across the area in the wake of the front. Skies will clear out in the overnight hours, and it will cool off nicely likely to below seasonal values by sunrise Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s across the forecast area, it will be quite refreshing when compared to the previous mornings.
There isn't much to say for the Tuesday-Wednesday period. High pressure will be firmly in control in the wake of the front. Marvelous March weather is expected. Tuesday and Wednesday will both feature nothing but sunshine, but temperatures will change slightly from Tuesday into Wednesday. After the cool start on Tuesday, afternoon highs will fail to make it back to seasonal reaching the upper 60s at best. An offshore flow will be in place. Humidity levels during the afternoon will be quite pleasant generally in the 30% range. It will be a great evening to do something outdoors after work. Another pleasantly cool night is in store for Tuesday night into Wednesday with clear skies continuing. High pressure will move closer to the area so the present Northerly breezes on Tuesday will cease to exist by the overnight hours. Temperatures will be well down into the 40s once again for Wednesday morning. Air mass modification takes over for Wednesday afternoon. Typically, this time of year, our cool downs are short-lived, and this time is no exception. Highs on Wednesday will easily exceed 70 once again, and may approach the mid 70s. So, as quick as we trended below normal we will trend back above normal. The controlling high pressure will translate Eastward during the day on Wednesday, and in turn, that will allow for a subtle return flow to develop late in the day. Humidity values will remain very low yet again.
The latter half of this work week will remain rain-free, and the overall conditions will continue to be nice. There will be the presence of more humidity, and instead of nothing but sunshine sky conditions will generally be more of a mix of sun and clouds. The presence of an onshore flow will be the driving force behind the aforementioned low-level moisture increase. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out first thing Thursday morning, but with the moisture return in its beginning stages that shouldn't be much of an issue. Temperatures will also respond to the return flow with morning lows generally back to normal or just above with readings between 50-55 or so. The mid-March warming trend rolls on for Thursday afternoon, and the luck of the Irish will be with us this St. Patrick's Day. Expect high temperatures to reach the middle 70s with cooler readings at the coast, and some far inland locations up closer to the 80 degree mark. Some of you might want to break out the shorts. More of the same weather is on tap for Friday with the warming trend continuing. A well pronounced onshore flow will be in place, and morning lows will be closer to the 60 degree mark with a better possibility of fog. The wind speeds during the overnight hours will dictate the possibilities for fog, as this translates to the amount of atmospheric mixing that will be allowed to occur. A general mix of sun and clouds is expected after the dissipation of any fog with high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s, just a couple degrees warmer than that of Thursday. Any storm systems during the Tuesday-Friday period will bypass our region as the main Jet Stream will retreat far to the North.
The upcoming weekend looks like a good one. We will be on the Western fringe of this latest Pacific high pressure. The high pressure will remain close enough to block any storm systems from affecting our region. The persistent onshore flow will continue, and there will be a nice Southerly breeze thanks to advancing weather systems well away from this part of the world. There is a plethora of weekend activities scheduled as always here in beautiful SW Louisiana. No matter what your weekend plans are, it appears as though everything will have the green light. The same general mix of sun and clouds is expected, and it might be Partly Cloudy for at time, followed by a period of Mostly Cloudy skies and vice versa. There will also be the continued possibility of morning fog. Morning lows will be around the 60 degree mark, with afternoon highs approaching the 80 degree mark. It is conceivable that we will exceed 80 both Saturday and Sunday, but a lot of that hinges on how much sunshine we receive. Further assessment is forthcoming as the week goes on. Our next chance of rain will not enter the forecast until next Monday at the earliest, and even that looks low at this point with the better opportunity for rain hanging in the balance for just beyond this forecast period. A stronger storm system will be moving from W to E at the beginning of next week, and will help to shunt the controlling high further Eastward. Lifting will increase over the area, thus some streamer type activity in the form of scattered showers is expected. Mild and windy conditions are expected in the pre-frontal environment. The same temperature regime from the weekend will carry over into Monday. The official start of Spring will occur on Sunday into Monday, and it will certainly feel like Spring. There is a lot of uncertainty with regards to the next front next week, but there is considerable consistency to suggest that it won't push through the area until maybe next Tuesday or Wednesday. It is too early to speculate how cold it will get behind that front as well, but there are some signs of a pretty significant cool down sometime before the end of the month with a pattern change temporarily. The jury will remain to be out on this one for a while.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 44/68 45/73 54/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 44/68 44/74 53/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 45/70 48/75 57/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 40/65 42/70 50/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 41/66 43/72 52/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 47/69 45/74 54/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Decreasing Cloudiness & Much Cooler. Low 44. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 68. North wind 10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 45. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 73. East wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Not as Cool. Low 54. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 76. SSE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday 3/15/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 46
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
3-15-11
Low: 44
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Wednesday
3-16-11
Low: 45
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Thursday
3-17-11
St. Patrick's Day
Low: 54
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Friday
3-18-11
Low: 58
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
3-19-11
Low: 60
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Sunday
3-20-11
Vernal Equinox
Low: 62
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
3-21-11
Low: 65
High: 81
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers early in the evening.
Tuesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:47a.m. 7:04p.m.
High: 2:00p.m. 10:53p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.53'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, March 14, 2011
Low: 57
Normal Low: 50
Record Low: 27-1993
High: 71
Normal High: 71
Record High: 86-1918
Rainfall
Today: 0.05"
Month to Date: 3.96"
Normal Month to Date: 1.58"
Year to Date: 10.62"
Normal Year to Date: 10.38"
Record: 3.16"- 2004
Significant Weather Observed:
Rain
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 44
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 48
High: 73
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 51
High: 71
Rain: 1.18"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:23a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:21p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:53a.m.-7:51p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Saturday March 19
Last Quarter- Saturday March 26
New Moon- Sunday April 3
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM
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