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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Goldie Locks would be proud! Today featured weather that was "just right". It was an absolutely beautiful day across the forecast area with high pressure firmly in control across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Skies were crystal clear throughout the day with nothing but sunshine. It was nice and seasonably cool this morning with readings generally in the mid 40s as forecast. Afternoon highs were above seasonal norms with readings in the low to mid 70s, but with the extremely low humidity it felt fantastic. The controlling high pressure resulted in a light offshore flow at the surface as well. This continues tonight with clear skies and nearly calm winds in place. The stage is set for a night of maximum radiational cooling with lows in the low to mid 40s by sunrise Wednesday. This might be a little cool for some, but it is essentially normal for this time of year. No fear, if that's a little cool for you, we'll warm up quickly on Wednesday once again. Temperatures will climb back into the mid 70s with more wall to wall sunshine expected with the large area of Pacific high pressure remaining in place. A light offshore flow will prevail, but winds will shift to an Easterly direction during the day. Humidity values will remain on the low side as well. If you didn't get a chance to enjoy today, hopefully you'll have a few minutes at least to soak it up tomorrow.
The quiet and calm weather prevails for Wednesday night into Thursday, but air mass modification will be the story. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer in the upper 40s to around 50. Some patchy fog may form towards sunrise Thursday. A very light return flow will become established in the pre-dawn hours Thursday as the currently controlling Pacific high slides Eastward into the SE United States. Another fairly nice day is on tap for Thursday. Low-level moisture and humidity will be increasing, but a good deal of sunshine is expected. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 70s. A noticeable increase in humidity is expected by day's end. Clouds will make an appearance by Thursday night as significant low level moisture returns to the forecast area. Another in a continuing series of Pacific storm systems will be gathering strength downstream, and the outer effects of it will be experienced across the area as early as Thursday night. The onshore flow will intensify, and a round of fog is possible first thing Friday morning. The advancing storm system will generate a deep flow of Gulf air into the area. A few air mass showers can't be ruled out overnight Thursday into Friday as the deeper moisture pools over the area, but a mostly quiet weather pattern should exist.
Further changes continue as we round out the work week on Friday. The advancing storm system will continue to eject into the Great Plains. Surface cyclogenesis will originate as well over the Red River Valley of Texas as the advancing trough deepens. The attendant cold front will advect SE as well. Friday will be mostly a dry day as we await the main thrust of this storm system, but there will certainly be a chance for a few showers in the afternoon with deeper moisture in place. The fog will be the main issue to start the day. The fog should lift by mid-morning, and we'll be left with Partly to Mostly Cloudy and windy conditions throughout the day. Lift and instability will slowly increase during the day as the system draws closer. Rain chances remain in place for Friday night, but this should be on a hit or miss basis. Any showers will be brief on Friday and Friday night as everything streams inland quickly. Most of Friday night's Mardi Gras festivities should be just fine with mild conditions in place. Highs on Friday will reach the mid 70s yet again, and temperatures Friday night will only fall into the upper 50s. Look for readings in the 60s if you are out and about Friday evening. Better chances of showers & thunderstorms will exist for Saturday as the core of this latest Pacific system moves through.
Showers & thunderstorms will be in the likely category, an upgrade from yesterday. Models are more insistent on widespread activity ahead of the front. The surface low will travel NE from the Red River Valley into the Mid West Saturday. As the low translates NE, the cold front and dry line combination over Texas will translate Eastward. This set up will leave us in a favorable spot for the possibility of some severe thunderstorms. Certainly, showers & storms will be likely from late morning through mid-afternoon, but the chance of severe weather may be realized with damaging winds the main threat. This still remains to be seen. Rain will develop Saturday morning, and spread from W to E across the area as the day wears on. It is still a bit early to be real specific about the exact severe threat, but all indications continue to point towards at least some isolated severe storms. This certainly looks like our best opportunity at rainfall in a couple of weeks, and our best chance of severe weather so far this season. This will have significant implications on all the Mardi Gras festivities. I would make some alternate plans indoors just in case. There is an alternate scenario I see as a possibility, and that is, and one shot and done situation. This means that would be a quick storm right along the front, and then the rain ends in the afternoon. This system will have more energy and cold air to work with than its predecessors, so I do expect more significant impacts ahead of this system. The instability and strengthening Jet Stream will factor into the equation. Models still diverge on the intensity of the system, so we'll see how this plays out. Overall, other than an increase in the prospects for showers & storms my thinking hasn't changed from yesterday. Rainfall totals should be around an inch or less. Rain will taper off late in the day as the front works its way through the forecast area, and pushes into the coastal waters. A much cooler and drier air mass will be ushered in with the front. Temperatures in the pre-frontal environment will range from around 60 at sunrise to the mid 70s for highs ahead of the front. Temperatures will likely fall late in the day as CAA takes over. I would expect 50s by the evening hours with strong Northerly winds.
Conditions drastically improve Saturday night into Sunday. This will be a typical Spring cold front in that it clears out all the gunk, and eliminates nearly all available moisture. Skies will clear out overnight Saturday as Pacific high pressure builds in from the lee side of the Rockies in the wake of the front. Winds will be gusty in the post-frontal environment, and it will feel quite chilly for all Mardi Gras festivities Saturday night. Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s by Sunday morning with clear skies. CAA will remain in place into Sunday. Sunday will by far be the better day of the weekend, and all Mardi Gras events and activities Sunday will be just fine. It will be a bit chilly by early March standards with CAA remaining in place as the high continues to push towards our area. Abundant sunshine is on tap for Sunday, and under the early March sun high temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s. This air mass will mostly be of Pacific content, but it will mix with some colder Canadian air as the strong surface low ejects NE Saturday, so this will be the coolest air we've felt since around the middle of February. Winds will subside through the day as the strong high pressure nestles itself over the area. This latest stretch of nice weather will continue into Monday (Lundi Gras), which is good news for those who have a long weekend for Mardi Gras. It will be a seasonably cool and clear start to the day Monday with temperatures will down into the 40s once again.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 42/73 48/74 56/73 0 0 0 0 10 20
LFT 41/73 47/75 55/73 0 0 0 0 10 20
BPT 44/74 51/75 57/73 0 0 0 0 20 20
AEX 39/71 44/74 50/75 0 0 0 0 10 20
POE 40/71 44/74 50/75 0 0 0 0 10 20
ARA 43/73 49/74 56/73 0 0 0 0 10 20
Tonight...Clear. Low 42. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 73. East wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 48. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 74. SE wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy & Warmer with Areas of Fog after midnight. A slight chance of showers towards morning. Low 56. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Areas of Fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 20% chance of showers. High 73. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday 3/2/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 7
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 7
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
3-2-11
Low: 42
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Thursday
3-3-11
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Friday
3-4-11
Low: 56
High: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
3-5-11
Low: 60
High: 75
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
Sunday
3-6-11
Low: 44
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-20
Monday
3-7-11
Low: 41
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday
3-8-11
Low: 50
High: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Areas of fog after midnight.
Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning. Patchy fog late in the morning. A slight chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 7:24a.m. 8:14p.m.
High: 12:08a.m. 3:12p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.70'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Low: 48
Normal Low: 47
Record Low: 26-1913
High: 76
Normal High: 68
Record High: 82-1918
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.11"
Year to Date: 6.66"
Normal Year to Date: 8.91"
Record: 2.81"- 2002
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 46
High: 53
Rain: 0.57"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 52
High: 75
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 53
High: 60
Rain: 0.02"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:38a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 6:12p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:08a.m.-6:42p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Friday March 4
First Quarter- Saturday March 12
Full Moon- Saturday March 19
Last Quarter- Saturday March 26
Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM-
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