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SW Louisiana Forecast...Wednesday was another day of persistence with high humidity, warm & breezy conditions. Morning lows were quite mild indeed with readings in the mid to upper 60s, afternoon highs topped out near 80. It was another dry day with a mixture of sun and clouds across the forecast area. It was quite breezy once again as well as the pressure gradient remained tight between a large high pressure to our East, and a strong Spring storm moving through the Mid West and into New England. Some changes are on the docket beginning overnight tonight as the cold front associated with the traveling storm system pushes into our area. However, dynamics are lacking across the area, and strong capping remains in place in the mid and upper levels. Therefore, conditions are not favorable for a significant and much needed rain event. A slight chance of showers is mentioned for the pre-dawn hours as the front slides into the coastal waters. It will be the front itself that provides lifting. It is the lifting that will generate any scattered shower activity. Patchy fog will also be in the mix until the front passes through. This front is in a weakening state, but that being said it will have no trouble making it into the coastal waters. The front is also slowing down, and that trend will continue as it moves into and through the area. No significant rainfall is expected, and the ongoing drought will continue. Rainfall totals will barely be of any significance even where it does rain. All chances of rain will end with frontal passage between 2 and 4a.m. Temperatures will remain mild for most of the night, but a cooler and drier air mass will filter in behind the front in the pre-dawn hours. Expect temperatures at sunrise Thursday to range from the lower 50s towards Alexandria to lower 60s at the coast. A transition from an onshore flow to an offshore flow will be completed as well.
Thursday shouldn't be a bad day at all. The drier and somewhat cooler air mass will be in place with weak ridging in place. The cold front will pull up stationary over the Northern coastal waters, and begin transitioning to a warm front through the day. More sunshine that we've seen in the previous days is expected, however, some lingering cloud cover is possible especially near the coast where they will be in closer proximity to the front. The cooler air will be deepest North of I-10, so skies should generally be Sunny up that way. High temperatures will not eclipse the 80 degree threshold this time around, as the cooler air and refreshing Northerly breeze holds temperatures down into the mid 70s or so. This period of nice weather will be brief. This should continue into Friday with morning lows closer to seasonal values with mid 50s on average across the area. Clouds and humidity should increase during the day Friday as the stalled front over the Northern Gulf waters retreats Northward as a warm front. This front will slowly lift through the forecast area during the day, placing the entire area back into the deeper Gulf moisture once again by day's end. It should remain dry on Friday despite the passage of the warm front. The onshore flow will become a factor once again as well with breezy conditions in the offing. The effects of the marine layer will hold temperatures down into the mid 70s or so.
Dry weather will be with us as the weekend commences. We will be right back in the "soup" so to speak. The humidity returns with a vengeance with the warm sector moving further Northward. The influence of the onshore flow will keep mild and muggy weather in place for Friday night through the weekend. Overnight lows will be much warmer for Saturday morning when compared to those of Friday. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy, and the potential for some patchy fog will exist in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Anything you may have planned for Saturday looks just fine. The above normal warmth and high humidity will be accompanied by generally Partly Cloudy skies with some Mostly Cloudy intervals expected. High temperatures may very well exceed the 80 degree mark once again, and that is currently forecasted at this juncture. More changes are on tap for Sunday. Our next weather maker will be approaching at that time, and moving into range as the day wears on. The deep flow of tropical moisture will prevail, and will likely strengthen through the day in response to the usual pressure gradient. Any morning fog will dissipate by mid-morning. A general mix of sun and clouds is expected for now. High temperatures will reach or exceed 80 yet again after morning lows well above normal in the mid 60s. A few renegade showers are possible in the evening hours as deeper moisture pools over the area. A stronger cold front will be approaching, and an overall pattern shift will ensue thanks to a sharpening trough over the Rockies. Lift and instability will slowly increase as we get into the evening hours of Sunday. A slight chance of showers is maintained for Sunday afternoon. I still wouldn't change any plans you may have outdoors for Sunday. Most of the weather with this system will wait until a little bit later on.
Today's model runs suggest that the next trough and attendant Pacific cold front will be bearing down on the area overnight Sunday into Monday. This is perhaps a bit faster than the previous forecast indicated. There still seems to be good agreement from the models on a decent shot of shower & thunderstorm activity. Scattered activity will be expected initially, but overnight to around first thing Monday morning an MCS (squall line) of showers & thunderstorms should move through the area. This complex will likely form out ahead of the front over Texas during the day Sunday, and translate ESE as the front progresses. The main dynamics and greatest amount of instability should be over our region between 6p.m. Sunday and 6a.m. Monday. Conditions still seem favorable for the possibly of some severe weather. Some robust thunderstorms are possible with the main threats coming from damaging winds and hail. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out either, but this is something that still needs some fine tuning. I will increase the rain chances for Sunday night based on the latest data. The prevailing onshore flow will continue to pump the unstable Gulf air over the region. This system will definitely have a better chance of providing us with a decent shot of rainfall. Some areas could see up to an inch or so, but overall rainfall totals will vary greatly from one locale to the next Rain chances will be in the likely category, but it doesn't appear that they will max out at this juncture. Most of the significant weather at this point may come in the overnight hours Sunday night, but rain chances will roll on into Monday.
Conditions improve as the day wears on Monday. The front should be slowing down as it approaches the forecast area. There is still some model discrepancy wrt exactly when the frontal passage will occur. The faster models indicate early Monday while the slower ones insist the front will hold off until late Monday afternoon. At this point, I will reflect actual passage before noon Monday, but with a slowing down of the front, it may take the moisture a while longer to completely vacate the premises. Cooler & drier air will filter into the region behind the front. The mild weather will be with us to start the day Monday with lows in the mid 60s. There shouldn't be much of a temperature range on Monday as CAA takes over. This front will certainly be a bit stronger than its predecessors. Highs should reach the mid to upper 70s. Winds will make the shift from onshore to offshore. The chances for rain will be toned down, but will be maintained throughout the day. Any severe weather threat looks limited to Sunday night at this point, but stay tuned.
Clearing skies should occur Monday night as high pressure builds in behind the departing front. CAA takes over in earnest, and the coolest weather in a couple of weeks is expected by the time we get to Tuesday morning. Morning lows should be in the mid 40s in the coldest locations and lower to middle 50s closer to the coast. Tuesday may well be the nicest day of this forecast period with plenty of sunshine expected at least initially. An overall pattern shift will occur next week, and it appears we will have a very quick turnaround towards the end of the forecast period. In fact, we may not make it through the day Tuesday without seeing some clouds return. Another system will be in the formative stages poised to take the Southern track in the middle to latter portion of the week. The previous front will stall in the Gulf, and there might be some overrunning involved by the end of the forecast period on Wednesday. The overall pattern favors a period of unsettled weather. Right now, it looks like the lack of a return flow will keep the threat for severe weather limited on Wednesday, but the chance for rain will return to the forecast. Temperatures will be around normal for lows and at or just below normal for highs given the cloudiness and periodic showers. A better chance for thunderstorms is looming just beyond this forecast period as a warm front surges Northward, and another strong Pacific storm and its associated cold front marches our way around month's end. This one could bring some rather robust weather at that time, but that is something that is still hanging out there in the land of uncertainty at this point. A late season cold snap is still looking possible in the early days of April.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 57/78 54/79 63/82 20 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 59/78 53/80 62/83 20 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 58/80 57/81 64/83 20 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 53/75 49/76 55/80 10 0 0 0 0 0
POE 53/74 50/77 56/81 10 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 61/80 57/79 63/81 20 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog & some Scattered Showers until 3-4a.m. then Clearing & turning Cooler. Low 57. SSW wind 10 mph becoming NNW around 10 mph.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 78. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 54. Light NE wind.
Friday....Mostly Sunny early, becoming Partly Cloudy & more Humid as the day progresses. High 79. East wind 5-10 mph in the morning, becoming SSE at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with areas of fog forming overnight. Warmer. Low 63. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Areas of fog early, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Warm & Breezy. High 82. SSE wind 15 mph and gusty.
Thursday 3/24/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
3-24-11
Low: 57
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Friday
3-25-11
Low: 54
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: E/SE 10-15
Saturday
3-26-11
Low: 63
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
Sunday
3-27-11
Low: 66
High: 80
Rain: 20% PM...60% Night
Wind: SSE 20-25
Monday
3-28-11
Low: 64
High: 78
Rain: 60% Early...30% PM
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25
Tuesday
3-29-11
Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
3-30-11
Low: 49
High: 70
Rain: 30%
Wind: NE 10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Isolated showers after midnight.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 12:49a.m. 1:54p.m.
High: 9:23a.m. 5:42p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.50'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Low: 68
Normal Low: 52
Record Low: 25-1915
High: 80
Normal High: 73
Record High: 89-1910
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.91"
Normal Month to Date: 2.66"
Year to Date: 10.57"
Normal Year to Date: 11.46"
Record: 3.43"- 1973
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 43
High: 70
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 42
High: 63
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 46
High: 74
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 7:12a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:27p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:42a.m.-7:57p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Saturday March 26
New Moon- Sunday April 3
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Have a great Thursday! God Bless!
-DM
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